2023 NHL draft rankings

[Buffalonill]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Most if not all the top Russians weren't at the combine. 

Could be trying to pull a charles barkley lol

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Could be trying to pull a charles barkley lol

I don't understand this response. Russians by and large weren't at the combine. I don't know any Russian that was there. You're fishing

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

He looks Phil Kessel fat im starting to wonder maybe that's why he didn’t come over for testing.

 

LOL he doesn’t look “fat” at all. His 1990s Fresh Prince of Bel Air outfit is just blinding you😀

[Buffalonill]

27 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

LOL he doesn’t look “fat” at all. His 1990s Fresh Prince of Bel Air outfit is just blinding you😀

You can tell by his face he put on some weight 

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I could say many things about a Russian in Qatar, but I will play nice.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

You can tell by his face he put on some weight 

 

Not that it matters, but I disagree.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[French Collection]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Well, that’s one opinion against Simashev. He has been rising up lists, probably more due to his size and skating.

13 may be too early for him but I’ll trust KA and his team to make the right call. Maybe it’s Reinbacher or Willander instead. There will be good forwards available too.

I’m not looking for a 1D with this pick, we already have two of those, I want another Mule type. Maybe Novikov is that guy.

[dudacek]

I gotta say that I've never really seen the value in Bader's stuff.

Not really commenting on the info above, it's just that I've come to the point where I just don't pay any attention to him, fair or not.

I just don't see the value in saying these selected numbers are close to this other guy's therefore we should expect a similar career.

[Brawndo]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I gotta say that I've never really seen the value in Bader's stuff.

Not really commenting on the info above, it's just that I've come to the point where I just don't pay any attention to him, fair or not.

I just don't see the value in saying these selected numbers are close to this other guy's therefore we should expect a similar career.

 Bader still had a higher rating on Brandt Clarke than Owen Power despite Clarke still playing in OHL, while Power was averaging 22 minutes a night in the NHL. I read on another site from a very trustworthy source that the analytics community doesn’t trust his work at all. 

[Flashsabre]

Bader’s Model is brutal. And he comes across as a guy that only believes his model and has no ability to step back and look at players from any other angle then his system.

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Why anyone listens to this guy  is beyond me he's horrible and his models are trash 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Buffalonill

[LGR4GM]

39 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 Bader still had a higher rating on Brandt Clarke than Owen Power despite Clarke still playing in OHL, while Power was averaging 22 minutes a night in the NHL. I read on another site from a very trustworthy source that the analytics community doesn’t trust his work at all. 

Fairly certain his model still says Quinn isn't good. 

[Brawndo]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Fairly certain his model still says Quinn isn't good. 

My model says I’m the best 

[Curt]

22 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

My model says I’m the best 

I too like the part that compares the expected results of his picks the the real picks.  Huh, the model that you used to make the picks projects the results of your picks to be great?  You don’t say!

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

My model says I’m the best 

Does he do this to everyone?

[LGR4GM]

 

[SDBillsfan]

Simashev has a lot of admirers and a few who think he should go more towards the end of the first round. The book on him is that he has a lot of raw tools to go with a large 6'4" frame, but lacks offensive production. Having looked at a lot of video of all the top prospects, he actually impressed me more than a few of the prospects generally ranked in the top ten. There is a lot to work with there, and I think that in time his offense will improve. I would be very happy if he's our pick at #13.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, SDBillsfan said:

Simashev has a lot of admirers and a few who think he should go more towards the end of the first round. The book on him is that he has a lot of raw tools to go with a large 6'4" frame, but lacks offensive production. Having looked at a lot of video of all the top prospects, he actually impressed me more than a few of the prospects generally ranked in the top ten. There is a lot to work with there, and I think that in time his offense will improve. I would be very happy if he's our pick at #13.

I said more than anything else, the pipeline needs an Ekholm.

He sure seems to fit the bill.

[French Collection]

Beautiful skater, and he can handle the puck. 6’4” and 200lbs, what a foundation.

He can’t finish very well in the clips I’ve watched and he doesn’t have a good shot from what I’ve read. All weaknesses can be worked on, are his strengths enough?

He is a guy I would still like. I’ve said it before, the Sabres don’t need PP QBs or another Bryson/Pilut type, they need another Mule. He skates way better than Mule, more like a combination of Dahlin and Peterka.

Is he BPA or very close to it at #13? If the Sabres want him and think he could be around later, they could drop a few spots in a trade.
The clips I’ve seen show some good defense, great deception and elusiveness on retrievals and an ability to transition to offense in a hurry.

It’s too bad Russia hasn’t been playing internationally, so we could see this guy vs his peers.

[dudacek]

32 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Beautiful skater, and he can handle the puck. 6’4” and 200lbs, what a foundation..

It’s too bad fortunate for us Russia hasn’t been playing internationally, so we could other teams leery of Russia couldn’t really see this guy vs his peers.

 

[French Collection]

Michkov to meet with teams.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/matvei-michkov-scheduled-for-multiple-interviews-with-nhl-teams-ahead-of-nhl-draft-1.1975049
 

 

[LGR4GM]

On 6/15/2023 at 11:19 AM, LGR4GM said:

Ranking Name Position Height/Weight

1 Connor Bedard C 5'10" 185lbs

- He's really good. Lots of info already out there.

2 Adam Fantilli C 6'2" 187lbs

- He's really good. Lots of info already out there.

3 Matvei Michkov RW 5'10" 148lbs

- He's really good. Offensively he might be the best player in this draft in terms of his manipulation and shot but I still think Bedard edges him out. You gotta wait 3 years for him and at his size, I actually do worry that in the NHL on smaller ice, he will just get pushed to the outside. Lots of risk but high upside. His offensive creativity is probably a level above Bedard in terms of how he plays the game and that is truly elite. 

4 Leo Carlsson LW 6'3" 194lbs

- I like Carlsson the more I have watched him but I think there is a lack of one just truly standout trait that he could leverage at higher levels. That said, every skill he does have is above average. Skating might be only a bit above but he makes up for it with really good hockey sense, the ability to puckhandle and thread passes like the best of them, and a good work ethic. His size is something that he uses well and I invite everyone to watch the WJC20 to see more of him. Just a really solid player. 

 ^Tier 1 has ended ^ I could put Bedard on a tier all alone but we aren't drafting up there so meh. 

5 Will Smith C 6' 180lbs

- I think Smith is good but I am not convinced he can be great. Think high end 2nd line center as opposed to guaranteed first line center. In some ways, watching him reminds me of Jack Hughes but then the skating is a step below that. Smith has an excellent shot to go along with his extraordinary puck handling skills. His ability to get defenders to bite and then to either wire a perfect pass or to crank out a quick shot are really good. I wish he had more battle in his game, that's my main criticism, I think at times he can shy a bit from physical play. His ability to think and execute high end plays though is fantastic and why I put him here. My one concern is that Leonard and Perrault really covered up for some of his warts but maybe not. We won't find out soon because all 3 are going to college together. 

6 Zach Benson LW 5'10" 170lbs

- I was slow to come around on Benson. He at first glance seems like Matt Savoie but I think he is a step above our 1st rounder from last year. A lot has been said that Benson doesn't have great skating but I have watched a bunch of him now and I don't agree. The issue is he doesn't have elite speed and that might cause him problems. His brain though has elite speed. If I were ranking creativity it would be Mitchkov, Bedard, Benson all on a tier above everyone else. There is just layers on layers of manipulation to what Benson does and he does that alllllll over the ice. If Benson was 6'2", he would be challenging Fantilli for 2nd overall IMPO. He has a nonstop motor and sublime passing skills. I almost ranked him above Will Smith but just couldn't quite get there. "Benson’s expected primary assists and slot pass success percentage check in at the 100th percentile, in a sample that includes 700 forwards from this season. In a multi-year data set of over 3000 forwards, his underlying playmaking data is second to only Connor McDavid. You might have heard of him." 

7 Ryan Leonard RW 6' 190lbs

- "Hey we need a guy like Matthew Tkachuk, got anyone?" well well well let's talk about Ryan Leonard. He has one objective on the ice, win. Win the puck battle, win the board battle, win the 1v1 battle, beat the goalie, stop the forward, win. I have not seen a report anywhere that doesn't mention Leonard's grit but he isn't Tyler Boucher, a gritty guy with only okay skills. No, Leonard is good. He can shoot and he can skate. His is intelligent and helped facilitate a lot of the plays of Perrault and Smith. Versatile and hard nosed guys like Leonard are the types of players you draft in July so you can win in June. Is he going to score the most points out of his linemates in the NHL? No, but he might end up the most impactful due to his good skills, excellent IQ, and overall gritty attacking style. Sadly, he will be long gone by 13.

^ Tier 2 has ended^ it was small, that's what she said

8 David Reinbacher RHD 6'2" 194lbs

- What is 6'2", shoots, right, and has the closest thing to a guaranteed floor of #5 defender in the NHL... Reinbacher. Is he elite offensively, no. Is he elite defensively, I am inclined to say yes. He doesn't get beat often 1v1 and even when he does he has the agility and speed to get back. He tends to play physical (check out Austria at the WJC20) and not in a reckless way. He separates you from the puck and he moves up ice. He played in a men's league all year (Swiss National League) and was his teams go to top defender, as an 18yr old. On a team with our old friend Arrtu Ruotsalainen, he was 1 of 3 players with a positive goal +/-... his team wasn't that great. There is offense in his game and realistically he looks to be the perfect #2 pp and #3 or maybe #2 defender for a team. He is just all around solid. There is a good chance he comes to NA next year and plays in the AHL. He's not flashy but he is solid. High floor guy.

9 Oliver Moore C 5'11" 195lbs

- More almost edged out Reinbacher but the high floor got me. So Moore might be the very best skater in this class, bar none. He's that good, edges, speed, you name it and on skates Moore will do it. He has a good shot and good manipulation to get it off. The issue comes with the fact I think his overall IQ is average or slightly above, too many plays where he skates into pressure and then doesn't know where to go. Sometimes he doesn't make decisions fast enough. Now he doesn't do that all the time, you can watch lots of highlights where he uses his skating to create advantages for teammates but he needs to line up his skating with his brain a bit. My other concern is that his overall handling, to me is average. Sure he can deke here and there but compared to everyone above him and a bunch of ppl below him, he just doesn't have that "puck sticks to you" way of handling. He is just a cut below some of the other guys and that's really the issue. Still, if he can improve the hands, speed up the brain, he will be a very dangerous forward in the NHL. 

10 Dalibor Dvorský C 6'1" 201lbs

- His wjc18 really kept him from sliding for me. Sometimes when these guys play in pro leagues (Dvorsky plays in the Allsvenskan) they get a little lost in the shuffle and you don't see there high end plays as much. That said he does have skills and a good shot. His shot might be his best attribute as it is powerful, accurate and fast. He is somewhat like the Reinbacher of forwards where there is a high floor but maybe a lower ceiling. Think really good 2nd line center. He is physical enough and smart enough to play a mature 2way game and his other skills are developed enough to give him some fancy moves here and there. Is he the flashiest guy? Nope, but again, you will get solid efforts with some wow plays here and there. Well worth a top 10 pick. He reminds me a bit of Cozens in his draft year (big center with good everything that was a north south type of player) now granted Cozens has improved a lot since then. Still Dvosrky has a small chance of sliding to 13 and he would be worth the pickup IMPO. 2 way centers with skills like his don't grow on trees. 

11 Gabe Perreault LW 5'11" 165lbs

- Screw you consolidated rankings (20) and the horse you road in on. First thing is first, his skating has been wildly underrated because his breakaway speed isn't Oliver Moore. That said his short area speed is fine and his overall edges look fine. He needs some refinement and strength for sure but I think the size coupled with the lack of blazing speed has colored a few reports IMPO. Perrault is brilliant in the offensive zone when it comes to manipulations, fakes, stick moves, and otherwise creating time and mismatches. You add in his elite passing abilities and he was the perfect linemate for Leonard and Smith. He finds open ice, his shot is quick and accurate (needs more power), and when in trouble he will think his way out of it. Of course he rarely seems to be in trouble. The ability to understand the game at speed and react accordingly with great hands, slick passing, and a solid shot are the main draw here. Oh yea, and he scored the most points ever in the USDP, EVER. So it all comes down to one thing, do you think as a team you can take his skating from exceedingly average to a + trait. I think with some skating coaches and some strength the answer is yes. I find that smart players are able to do things like that. I love Perreault because he has a good motor and just is constant joy to watch as he manipulates defenders whenever and wherever. 

12 Dmitri Simashev LHD 6'4" 201lbs

- Finally found video... not a lot but some. If he shot right, I think I would be on the draft him no matter what wagon to Stanley-ville. His scoring picked up towards the end of the year and he was really good in the MHL playoffs with 6pts in 10games. Now we should discuss his skating, his edges are better than Power and his has really good acceleration (on par with Owen). He can keep up with attacking forwards and has the agility that allows him to turn and push attackers to the outside. He has a physical element and will rub guys out or use his frame to separate them from the puck. Gap control is as good as Reinbacher but where I think he is a bit behind Reinbacher is in overall creativity. He just isn't has refined in terms of the offensive side of things and that hurts his stock a bit. Here is the truth though, he is probably better than Samuelsson overall while also being the same size. So basically Muel is a poor man's Simashev. I wish Simashev didn't have 2 more years in Russia as I think a NA coach would be able to push his game further faster but when he shows up at the start of 2025, you will have a player that just spent 2 years in the KHL... exactly like Novikov so we shall see what we get. 

13 Quentin Musty LW 6'2" 200lbs

- I cannot understand why Musty is ranked so low other places. I mean, I can but I don't agree. His consolidated is #24 and no, like no. I think this is a case of a guy that was ranked lowish to start and scouts saw improvement but he mostly met expectations from there. Basically I think he was anchored, low to start, met the expectations ppl had so he had a small increase to his rankings. So the good is that he is a slick passer who can manipulate defenders, play off contact and has a quietly good shot. The bad is that his skating is only slightly above average and sometimes he plays a bit too much of a perimeter passing game for my taste. That said, I think when you watch tape of him from November and then compare it to March you really see improvements. He needs to improve more in the defensive zone, where he at times seems disinterested but at other times is really good at separating player from puck. Me? I am betting that once his matures a little, all of the good will become more common and the bad will be sanded out of how he plays. He just improved too much IMPO. His stickhandling and ability to go through defenders was great and he never really put himself in bad spots offensively. He has a July bday so I really feel it comes down to allowing the player to mature and just working with him. He has all the tools needed to be a really good top 6 forward and if he can up the skating a bit, he can honestly be in your top 3. The issue is though, you might also get a 3rd line passer with a decent shot who is only okay defensively. High ceiling, low floor. 

^ Tier 3 has ended^ it is a bit bigger but makes sense to me

More to come later but there is my top 13. This has more to do with where I set the end of my 3rd tier as opposed to Buffalo picking at 13. That is a coincidence not a design here. 

Calum Ritchie and Colby Barlow kick off my 4th tier. Both I mention because they very nearly were put in the 3rd tier but I felt their overall skill was a bit below what I have here. 

Ranking Name Position Height/Weight

14 Colby Barlow 6'1" 195lbs

- A bunch of ppl say that his peak is basically where he sits now, that of a hardnosed middle forward with a good shot who is sound defensively. There supposedly isn't much room for growth because for the most part you are getting a physical mature player but I tend to disagree. I think Barlow can add more things to his toolbox and not having to worry about his physical maturity as much might help him do that. His shot is good, his IQ is really good, he works hard, and he is physical. Basically he is a poor man's Cozens. The catch here is that Barlow might not have as high of ceiling, certainly it is lower than my next player but his floor is exceedingly high and if he can work on a bit more deception and some softer hands, I think you could get a really good mini-tuch/cozens type of player. His drive to the net and his quick and heavy release make you hope the rest will come. 

15 Lukas Dragicevic RHD 6'1" 194lbs

- He has some skating issues and that almost meant he was in the late 20's but I can't ignore the rest of the package and I think a lot of players manage to fix their skating. You want offense? Oh man does he have offense, the converted forward is a all about attacking you with the puck. He has handling moves and solid passing. Really that the jr level he is a blast to watch in transition and the offensive zone. Now the defense is... a work in progress but it isn't that he doesn't try more that he is just not as developed as others. You want a solid defender draft Willander. I think Lukas can get there but this is a higher risk higher reward type of player. The skating needs upgraded and the defensive zone work needs to be ironed out. If you manage that, you might have a #2 or at least a #3 defender who can run a pp. I think the rewards outweigh the risks which is why I rank him higher than most. 

16 Calum Ritchie C/RW 6'2" 187lbs

- Quick name a player that played their entire draft year injured. Seriously at the Hlinka he injured his shoulder and then just played the entire year anyway... because idk badassery? For me I think this limited him a bit this year but when I watch him I see a decent handler, with good ideas, effective passing, and a very well rounded 2 way game. I think he has really good offensive and defensive zone awareness and he uses that to his advantage, finding open ice or teammates with passes. He really does a good job of creating space for himself and others which will be a big help in the NHL. I think his skating is averagish but I do see where others have critiqued his posture and his pop. I think some refinement will really allow him to access even more things that he is already good at. My final comment is watch him battle for a puck, he might be one of the best at it. I didn't pay that much attention to it when I was watching him (because I am an amateur blogger looking at this stuff for fun) but a scouting report talked about it so I went back and looked. Ritchie really is great at separating opponents from the puck and he has multiple tools for the job, stick lifts, checks, body positioning. In a few ways I was reminded of Lidstrom and how he would just always emerge with the puck. No I am not saying he will be as good as one of the very best defenders ever, mainly because he plays forward, but it just made me think of that. 

17 Axel Sandin Pellikka RHD 5'11" 181lbs

- I went back and worth with Peillikka. At first I didn't care for him because he reminded me a little of Pilut and that was bad. But he is actually really good at the small stuff and I think has enough skill to be effective even if he isn't over 6' tall (this will shock you all but I actually want defenders to be 6'1" or taller if possible). He has good skating and nice hands, his reads are fairly solid. There just isn't that many issues with his game other than his size. That said he engages defensively and has pro level habits down low. You do see his lack of physical stature at times but I think with more maturity and refinement to his game he can handle it. My issue really is that I don't have some high end trait to point to as a game breaker and that is the concern for me. He's good at everything with very good skating but I think you are probably getting a 2nd pairing defender who can run your pp. At this point in the draft players will have limits that you have to think about and decide what you are comfortable with. I think he will get drafted after Willander. 

18 Samuel Honzek C 6'3" 195lbs

- I like Honzek quite a bit. In a lot of ways he has similarities to Ritchie. Both use their bodies well and win a lot of battle. Where the difference is, comes from Honzek being less of a distributor and more of a shooter. He played on a bad WHL team so maybe that had to do with him shooting more. I really enjoy his shot and would compare it to Barlow's but maybe just a touch below him. His skating his good and if you watch him you will see pretty good finesse from the 6'3" forward as he makes some nice cuts and has good speed. His defensive game needs some work because he doesn't always get in the correct position and get pucks up ice fast enough. I wonder if some of that was a weak team but I think his hockey IQ isn't as good as a guy like Ritchie so that is why he is a bit below him. Still, this is a solid NHL player and will be a middle 6 guy in all likelihood. Could become a 50-60pt player because he has the size and skills to be pretty good. He is another in that Tuch/Cozens mold. 

19 Nate Danielson C/RW 6'2" 186lbs

- First thing first, he's old. In fact he is 350 days older than Juraj Pekarcik but they are in the same draft. Okay with that out of the way he is another in the Barlow, Ritchie, Honzek mold of bigger guy with certain skills but a few limitations (if you haven't see the pattern yet, there it is). So why is he ranked here? I think he has the lowest hockey IQ of the 4 guys just mentioned and that worries me more than someone skating. He has skills, his shooting and passing are solid. He physically engages and his skating is good but there is just always a "but why not do that instead" feel to watching him. I just want to see him really flow better with his linemates and I think sometimes if you watch him, he has simple solutions to complex problems that that don't always work. Still at worst you get a 3rd line center with some scoring and a sound defensive game. At best, you might have a 2nd line center. His age and his IQ though put him a bit lower IMPO. 

20 Gracyn Sawchyn RW 5'11" 155lbs

- Dude needs to eat some burgers. He isn't small but he is light (kinda the same thing) and that is the issue. He can be pushed off of pucks at times and sometimes will lose battles to bigger players. So... why do I have a guy who's consensus ranking is 35 and his lowest is 80 or 90 at 20? Go watch him play. Holy crapballz does he do everything you want. His puckhandling is great, not good, great. He has handles, dangles, dekes, fakes, humdingers, and hornwanglers... wait this is turning into Dr. Seuss. His manipulation tactics and ability to execute them at speed are top 10 in this class. If he were built like Barlow, I would tell the Sabres to kick the shins of all the other gms as they ran to the stage to take him. Now you look at this point totals and probably think, ummm that isn't that impressive with 58pts in 58games but he played on a team with Lambert, Korchinski, Schaefer, and Guenther so ice time was little hard to come by. Also I think he needs to improve his shot which is fine but nothing special. He has a high motor and the skills needed to turn that into effective game play. His playmaking is the highlight and he can make just about any pass you need. Also, take the puck the from him, I hope you outskate him or pass quick because if not that little ball of hate will becoming for your ass. I love Sawchyn but his skating isn't elite and his size will hold him back a bit. I think if he adds muscle the skating with ramp up to be more explosive and also his ability to facilitate plays will really shine when you put him with shooters. This simply isn't a smaller player with good skating and high energy. He is a manipulative stickhandler with high end skills who is pretty good at attacking and defending. This is a high risk high reward guy who can be a 2nd line player in the NHL if all the breaks go right... the concern is I am not sure if he makes a good 3rd or 4th liner if he can't quite make the top 6, his motor might allow him too though. 

^ Tier 4 ^ it is a bigger tier and I almost went another 2 players but really after Sawchyn I think there is less certainty so I cut it off. 

[Flashsabre]

 I have a feeling if Michkov makes it to number 7 that the Sabres trade up to get him. Just the perfect storm of a chance to get a franchise player. You have to think the Sabres are all over it. Some may not like it but it lines up for their organization.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Flashsabre

[Buffalonill]

2 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

 I got a feeling if Michkov makes it to number 7 that the Sabres trade up to get him. Just the perfect storm of a chance to get a franchise player. You have to think the Sabres are all over it. Some may not like it but it lines up for their organization.

  I'm really hoping that they're focusing on making the playoffs next year not worrying about a prospect that's gonna be here in 4 years 

If he's there at 13 draft him  But keep the assets to move for a D