2023 NHL draft rankings

[LGR4GM]

On 6/6/2023 at 4:35 PM, Curt said:

Sure.  If I had to guess, I’d agree, but I would have said the same about Savoie being there at 9.  Sometimes weird stuff just happens.  It’s reasonably possible that one of them is there at 13.

Savoie sliding to 9 wasn't really that big of a surprise. He slid maybe 2-3 spots and he is short so we see that in the NHL draft. Ryan Leonard, Dalibor Dvorsky, are 7th and 8th in the consolidated rankings I am looking at and neither of them are short. Dvorsky at the WJC18 really solidified his rankings and probably improved his draft stock. Leonard is very much a gritty top 6 forward and teams love him. I suppose it could happen but I just feel that 13th is a little far (now if we had 11... I might be more inclined). 

But you asked and so let's look at them. Anything can happen at a draft. 

Dalibor Dvorsky, 6'1" 201lbs C, like a lot of prospects we are talking consistency issues. Now he played in the Allsvenskan so he is in a men's pro league as a 17yr old with a mid June bday, that means he is still really young. I like his shot and I think he sees the ice well. My concern with Dvorsky is that while positionally sound, I am not sure he is overly creative. Jack Quinn is a great example of young and creative, a player that has options when challenged from stickhandle, slick pass, change of skating (attack path/angles/cutbacks), and importantly fakes. Quinn can do all of these at speed. Dvorsky kinda does all of them but I always feel like when I see him (again, most of what I see is some shift by shifts and highlights, I have a life and a job so I don't track games like the in depth guys) there is a lot of coasting and slowing down to execute and I worry a little about that at the pro level. Defensively he is sound and understands how to play that part of the ice. The good part is he does have all the tools and he is smart in terms of understanding the game. He is hard on pucks and I do like his shot. At his age, he could really jump up next year if he figures out how to play at a higher pace. When I watch him, he reminds me a little of Cozens and I think Cozens is probably his ceiling. His floor is something like a lesser ROR (45pt good 2-way center). He knows how to use his body and has physicality, I would like to see it used more and more much like our 2nd guy below. 

Ryan Leonard, 6' 192lb RW, I can't fathom a scenario where Leonard falls out of the top 10 let alone to 13. He is loved by scouts for a few reasons. I don't think I have ever watched Leonard (who you can watch multiple full games of because USDP) and thought, man that guy is slacking off. He is like JJP in a lot of ways, he wants to attack you and he wants you to know he wants to attack you and he is going to attack you. He is like a better (way more tools and brains) Tyler Boucher. Now Leonard does just about everything well. His shot is really good, his skating is good, his playmaking is really good. If you take the puck from him, he is coming (again like JJP) and he is mad. You draft Leonard in July so you can win Cups in June. Now he played on one of if not the best USDP line of the last 20 years with other first round picks Perrault and W. Smith. This line was the most perfect mix of lethality. Perrault is so smart and skilled the only thing holding him back was skating, Smith is so shifty on his skates and the only thing holding him back was strength, and Leonard... who was a good connector and occasional driver on that line. All 3 I believe are going to Boston College next year so the fun times continue. This is the only thing that gives me a little concern, who is Leonard away from these 2? Can he still drive play and get the opportunities? Is he just the lucky wingman of two players that have more skill? My estimation is Leonard is good on his own. You don't score 51g in 57games just because your linemates are good. He will probably get slightly overdrafted but you put him with a guy like Quinn and Cozens or JJP and Cozens and just let them face f##k opponents all night. Leonard won't be there but man do I love his game. At 2:40ish of the video you see one of the things I like most and something Jack Quinn does, when Leonard goes for the puck, he cuts in front of the chasing defender and initiates contact forcing the defender to go through Leonard if he wants the puck, that's what I want. 

 

52 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

NHLe ratings for last year’s draft class. How much stock to put in it? I don’t know but it is just cool to see Kulich and Savoie at 1 and 3.

 

16 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t understand the chart.

what are the numbers inside the bars, and what does cumulative NHLe mean?

I don't understand the inside numbers either. I know what NHLe is but not what this chart is showing me. 

[LGR4GM]

I said this draft is average after you ignore the top 3/4. It really turns into a fairly typical draft after that 1st tier of guys but there is an exception I think I am seeing. I am unsure if this is bias on my part or because of the truth that there are a bunch of really solid RHD picks. Looking at all the positions in this draft, I think RHD is probably the deepest followed closely by Center. Also I would say this draft has better goalies than the previous one which makes the Leinonen pick even more frustrating and wasteful. 

Anyways... I think I have my top 10 done. I don't think I will do a full list this year because I don't want to. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Savoie sliding to 9 wasn't really that big of a surprise. He slid maybe 2-3 spots and he is short so we see that in the NHL draft. Ryan Leonard, Dalibor Dvorsky, are 7th and 8th in the consolidated rankings I am looking at and neither of them are short. Dvorsky at the WJC18 really solidified his rankings and probably improved his draft stock. Leonard is very much a gritty top 6 forward and teams love him. I suppose it could happen but I just feel that 13th is a little far (now if we had 11... I might be more inclined). 

But you asked and so let's look at them. Anything can happen at a draft. 

Dalibor Dvorsky, 6'1" 201lbs C, like a lot of prospects we are talking consistency issues. Now he played in the Allsvenskan so he is in a men's pro league as a 17yr old with a mid June bday, that means he is still really young. I like his shot and I think he sees the ice well. My concern with Dvorsky is that while positionally sound, I am not sure he is overly creative. Jack Quinn is a great example of young and creative, a player that has options when challenged from stickhandle, slick pass, change of skating (attack path/angles/cutbacks), and importantly fakes. Quinn can do all of these at speed. Dvorsky kinda does all of them but I always feel like when I see him (again, most of what I see is some shift by shifts and highlights, I have a life and a job so I don't track games like the in depth guys) there is a lot of coasting and slowing down to execute and I worry a little about that at the pro level. Defensively he is sound and understands how to play that part of the ice. The good part is he does have all the tools and he is smart in terms of understanding the game. He is hard on pucks and I do like his shot. At his age, he could really jump up next year if he figures out how to play at a higher pace. When I watch him, he reminds me a little of Cozens and I think Cozens is probably his ceiling. His floor is something like a lesser ROR (45pt good 2-way center). He knows how to use his body and has physicality, I would like to see it used more and more much like our 2nd guy below. 

Ryan Leonard, 6' 192lb RW, I can't fathom a scenario where Leonard falls out of the top 10 let alone to 13. He is loved by scouts for a few reasons. I don't think I have ever watched Leonard (who you can watch multiple full games of because USDP) and thought, man that guy is slacking off. He is like JJP in a lot of ways, he wants to attack you and he wants you to know he wants to attack you and he is going to attack you. He is like a better (way more tools and brains) Tyler Boucher. Now Leonard does just about everything well. His shot is really good, his skating is good, his playmaking is really good. If you take the puck from him, he is coming (again like JJP) and he is mad. You draft Leonard in July so you can win Cups in June. Now he played on one of if not the best USDP line of the last 20 years with other first round picks Perrault and W. Smith. This line was the most perfect mix of lethality. Perrault is so smart and skilled the only thing holding him back was skating, Smith is so shifty on his skates and the only thing holding him back was strength, and Leonard... who was a good connector and occasional driver on that line. All 3 I believe are going to Boston College next year so the fun times continue. This is the only thing that gives me a little concern, who is Leonard away from these 2? Can he still drive play and get the opportunities? Is he just the lucky wingman of two players that have more skill? My estimation is Leonard is good on his own. You don't score 51g in 57games just because your linemates are good. He will probably get slightly overdrafted but you put him with a guy like Quinn and Cozens or JJP and Cozens and just let them face f##k opponents all night. Leonard won't be there but man do I love his game. At 2:40ish of the video you see one of the things I like most and something Jack Quinn does, when Leonard goes for the puck, he cuts in front of the chasing defender and initiates contact forcing the defender to go through Leonard if he wants the puck, that's what I want. 

 

 

I don't understand the inside numbers either. I know what NHLe is but not what this chart is showing me. 

Great assessment on Leonard. I love his game as does every scout. I don’t see any way he falls to 13.

Dvorsky has a very slight chance to fall to 13, if teams pick Dmen like Reinbacher, Sandin-Pellikka and Simashev early.

[LGR4GM]

I hate Eduard Sale. Like, there are some prospects that I watch and I say "wow that guy has a lot of skill" and then you watch shift by shifts or a full game (like the u18s) and the guy just flat out is lazy unless there is an offensive opportunity. Sale has one of those games where you watch a highlight and it is awesome and then you watch some full shifts and if you dont zone out due to boredom, you realize that Sale forechecks softer than a feather gently brushing your face and his backcheck is uhhh weak? I just do not care for his overall game and this guy is going to be WAY down my list compared to average rankings. His consolidated is 12 and he is going to be in the 26-32 range for me. Great, he's got skills, but skills can be taught. I don't think motor and attitude can be taught as much. 

[French Collection]

46 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I hate Eduard Sale. Like, there are some prospects that I watch and I say "wow that guy has a lot of skill" and then you watch shift by shifts or a full game (like the u18s) and the guy just flat out is lazy unless there is an offensive opportunity. Sale has one of those games where you watch a highlight and it is awesome and then you watch some full shifts and if you dont zone out due to boredom, you realize that Sale forechecks softer than a feather gently brushing your face and his backcheck is uhhh weak? I just do not care for his overall game and this guy is going to be WAY down my list compared to average rankings. His consolidated is 12 and he is going to be in the 26-32 range for me. Great, he's got skills, but skills can be taught. I don't think motor and attitude can be taught as much. 

That type of effort reminds of some kids I’ve seen in AAA minor hockey. You tell them there is a scout from the Kitchener Rangers in the rink and their effort goes up 50%. Where is that push when we are down by 2 with 5 minutes left in an empty rink.

Sale has flashes but I want guys with a motor comparable to JJP unless the skill level is through the roof.

[Flashsabre]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Savoie sliding to 9 wasn't really that big of a surprise. He slid maybe 2-3 spots and he is short so we see that in the NHL draft. Ryan Leonard, Dalibor Dvorsky, are 7th and 8th in the consolidated rankings I am looking at and neither of them are short. Dvorsky at the WJC18 really solidified his rankings and probably improved his draft stock. Leonard is very much a gritty top 6 forward and teams love him. I suppose it could happen but I just feel that 13th is a little far (now if we had 11... I might be more inclined). 

But you asked and so let's look at them. Anything can happen at a draft. 

Dalibor Dvorsky, 6'1" 201lbs C, like a lot of prospects we are talking consistency issues. Now he played in the Allsvenskan so he is in a men's pro league as a 17yr old with a mid June bday, that means he is still really young. I like his shot and I think he sees the ice well. My concern with Dvorsky is that while positionally sound, I am not sure he is overly creative. Jack Quinn is a great example of young and creative, a player that has options when challenged from stickhandle, slick pass, change of skating (attack path/angles/cutbacks), and importantly fakes. Quinn can do all of these at speed. Dvorsky kinda does all of them but I always feel like when I see him (again, most of what I see is some shift by shifts and highlights, I have a life and a job so I don't track games like the in depth guys) there is a lot of coasting and slowing down to execute and I worry a little about that at the pro level. Defensively he is sound and understands how to play that part of the ice. The good part is he does have all the tools and he is smart in terms of understanding the game. He is hard on pucks and I do like his shot. At his age, he could really jump up next year if he figures out how to play at a higher pace. When I watch him, he reminds me a little of Cozens and I think Cozens is probably his ceiling. His floor is something like a lesser ROR (45pt good 2-way center). He knows how to use his body and has physicality, I would like to see it used more and more much like our 2nd guy below. 

Ryan Leonard, 6' 192lb RW, I can't fathom a scenario where Leonard falls out of the top 10 let alone to 13. He is loved by scouts for a few reasons. I don't think I have ever watched Leonard (who you can watch multiple full games of because USDP) and thought, man that guy is slacking off. He is like JJP in a lot of ways, he wants to attack you and he wants you to know he wants to attack you and he is going to attack you. He is like a better (way more tools and brains) Tyler Boucher. Now Leonard does just about everything well. His shot is really good, his skating is good, his playmaking is really good. If you take the puck from him, he is coming (again like JJP) and he is mad. You draft Leonard in July so you can win Cups in June. Now he played on one of if not the best USDP line of the last 20 years with other first round picks Perrault and W. Smith. This line was the most perfect mix of lethality. Perrault is so smart and skilled the only thing holding him back was skating, Smith is so shifty on his skates and the only thing holding him back was strength, and Leonard... who was a good connector and occasional driver on that line. All 3 I believe are going to Boston College next year so the fun times continue. This is the only thing that gives me a little concern, who is Leonard away from these 2? Can he still drive play and get the opportunities? Is he just the lucky wingman of two players that have more skill? My estimation is Leonard is good on his own. You don't score 51g in 57games just because your linemates are good. He will probably get slightly overdrafted but you put him with a guy like Quinn and Cozens or JJP and Cozens and just let them face f##k opponents all night. Leonard won't be there but man do I love his game. At 2:40ish of the video you see one of the things I like most and something Jack Quinn does, when Leonard goes for the puck, he cuts in front of the chasing defender and initiates contact forcing the defender to go through Leonard if he wants the puck, that's what I want. 

 

 

I don't understand the inside numbers either. I know what NHLe is but not what this chart is showing me. 

Good write ups.  I think the 2 guys that will slide in the top 10 will be Michkov and Benson.

Michkov because of the Russian factor but more importantly the contract. I can’t see him getting by the Caps or Wings.

Benson is a small winger without blazing speed ( he is a great skater but scouts will count the wheels against him) I wouldn’t be shocked if he is sitting there in the 11-13 range.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[Flashsabre]

Lance lists Wood, Perreault, Simashev,  Gulyayev, But, Honzek, Moore, Sale as the names the Sabres are interviewing. Now that won’t be everyone they are interviewing or looking at but those are the names he stated. Gives you some idea of the guys they like around that 13th pick.

Edited June 8, 2023 by Flashsabre

[LGR4GM]

50 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Lance lists Wood, Perreault, Simashev,  Gulyayev, But, Honzek, Moore, Sale as the names the Sabres are interviewing. Now that won’t be everyone they are interviewing or looking at but those are the names he stated. Gives you some idea of the guys they like around that 13th pick.

2 names listed there would greatly annoy me at 13.

[French Collection]

5 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Lance lists Wood, Perreault, Simashev,  Gulyayev, But, Honzek, Moore, Sale as the names the Sabres are interviewing. Now that won’t be everyone they are interviewing or looking at but those are the names he stated. Gives you some idea of the guys they like around that 13th pick.

I wonder if more were interviewed?

Two that jump out at me are Reinbacher and Sandin-Pellikka.

Dark horses like Musty, Willander and Yager, Danielsen and Ritchie.

[Flashsabre]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/buffalo-sabres-nhl-draft-kevyn-adams-prospects/article_8814e726-03a3-11ee-8ef3-ef97123376e2.html

Here is Lance’s article.

[French Collection]

7 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/buffalo-sabres-nhl-draft-kevyn-adams-prospects/article_8814e726-03a3-11ee-8ef3-ef97123376e2.html

Here is Lance’s article.

Thanks.

He talks about those guys and says the Sabres should interview them.

There should be news leaking out about who is being interviewed by who.

I would think KA would want to meet everyone outside of the top 5.

[Flashsabre]

18 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Thanks.

He talks about those guys and says the Sabres should interview them.

There should be news leaking out about who is being interviewed by who.

I would think KA would want to meet everyone outside of the top 5.

Yes, sorry, you are correct. The Russians are not allowed at the combine so they can’t interview them there unless zoom meeting are allowed.

Im sure they will interview a ton of the players. Hopefully Adams is talking with the others GMs and has some things percolating.

[Taro T]

14 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

NHLe ratings for last year’s draft class. How much stock to put in it? I don’t know but it is just cool to see Kulich and Savoie at 1 and 3.

The numbers don't seem to actually be NHLe, not quite sure what they are representing, but yeah, cool that 2 of the top 3 are Sabres.  Still would rather have had the guy at 4 on that list had there been some way for him to slide a smidge.  Jiricek is going to be a good one.

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

The numbers don't seem to actually be NHLe, not quite sure what they are representing, but yeah, cool that 2 of the top 3 are Sabres.  Still would rather have had the guy at 4 on that list had there been some way for him to slide a smidge.  Jiricek is going to be a good one.

Here is the guy who posted it.

[Taro T]

14 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Here is the guy who posted it.

Still not sure what the #'s in the bars represent.  Am guessing it is games played, but not positive of that.

And the top guys only having NHLe's of ~25 points seems low.  (And if it's goals instead of points in what he's looking at, it seems high.)

[NAF]

I think considering the plethora of mid level forward talent in this organization it makes sense to trade up if Michkov falls. He isn't getting past Washington, so it'd have to be with someone before that.

[LGR4GM]

48 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Still not sure what the #'s in the bars represent.  Am guessing it is games played, but not positive of that.

And the top guys only having NHLe's of ~25 points seems low.  (And if it's goals instead of points in what he's looking at, it seems high.)

Numbers within the bars represent games played. It was confusing but thankfully the author was asked in the Twitter thread and answered. 

[LGR4GM]

I really hope we draft Matthew Mania. Guy is actually pretty good. 

[JohnC]

57 minutes ago, NAF said:

I think considering the plethora of mid level forward talent in this organization it makes sense to trade up if Michkov falls. He isn't getting past Washington, so it'd have to be with someone before that.

I'm not sure that Washington would draft the Russian even if they had an opportunity to do so. Ovie is currently chasing the Gretzky goal record. That would be a factor why the organization would want to remain competitive and have a prospect who can contribute sooner. If Michkov were drafted the Capitals wouldn't have access to the player as soon as they would want. 

In contrast, the Sabres are in a better situation to wait on the player because they have a rich enough system to wait on him. And even if he decided to stay in Russia for a longer period of time, we would be in a better position to absorb such a loss of talent. Or another way of making this point is that our organization has enough prospects in the pipeline to allow it to take a gamble on this talented player.

 

[Flashsabre]

5 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not sure that Washington would draft the Russian even if they had an opportunity to do so. Ovie is currently chasing the Gretzky goal record. That would be a factor why the organization would want to remain competitive and have a prospect who can contribute sooner. If Michkov were drafted the Capitals wouldn't have access to the player as soon as they would want. 

In contrast, the Sabres are in a better situation to wait on the player because they have a rich enough system to wait on him. And even if he decided to stay in Russia for a longer period of time, we would be in a better position to absorb such a loss of talent. Or another way of making this point is that our organization has enough prospects in the pipeline to allow it to take a gamble on this talented player.

 

I think SJ, Habs, Caps And Wings are all teams that will be looking at Michkov

Hughes just said he wants to draft the best player available. 

Maybe he falls out of the top 10 but I would be shocked.

[Carmel Corn]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I really hope we draft Matthew Mania. Guy is actually pretty good. 

Are you thinking with one of our 2nd rounders?

[matter2003]

On 6/8/2023 at 9:15 AM, LGR4GM said:

I said this draft is average after you ignore the top 3/4. It really turns into a fairly typical draft after that 1st tier of guys but there is an exception I think I am seeing. I am unsure if this is bias on my part or because of the truth that there are a bunch of really solid RHD picks. Looking at all the positions in this draft, I think RHD is probably the deepest followed closely by Center. Also I would say this draft has better goalies than the previous one which makes the Leinonen pick even more frustrating and wasteful. 

Anyways... I think I have my top 10 done. I don't think I will do a full list this year because I don't want to. 

What about Michkov potentially dropping due to teams not thinking he wants to come here? He is likely the 2nd or 3rd best player in the draft...would the Sabres risk it at 13 if he is there?

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

What about Michkov potentially dropping due to teams not thinking he wants to come here? He is likely the 2nd or 3rd best player in the draft...would the Sabres risk it at 13 if he is there?

I suggested this possibility weeks ago in the draft thread.  Odds are that he drops some since he can't come here until 2026, but I doubt the Caps draft some one else if Michkov is available.

[Curt]

20 hours ago, French Collection said:

I wonder if more were interviewed?

Two that jump out at me are Reinbacher and Sandin-Pellikka.

Dark horses like Musty, Willander and Yager, Danielsen and Ritchie.

I’m also really interested to know who else was interviewed.  I’m sure there are more.  NHL teams generally consider these interviews to be pretty important I think.