2023 NHL draft rankings

[French Collection]

I’m not done but after compiling the rankings of 16 mock drafts from good sources(still waiting for Bob McKenzie’s 17-32, FC to update and a few others) I have a pretty good feel for the first round. I will probably use around 20 different lists.

Most lists are 32 players, a few are 64 or 100.

19 players are on all 16 lists.

Here are the rankings, the number is the average ranking of that player.

1 Connor Bedard 1

2 Adam Fantilli 2

3 Leo Carlsson 3.4

4 Matvei Michkov 4.5

5 Will Smith 4.8

6 Zach Benson 7.1

7 Ryan Leonard 8

8 Dalibor Dvorsky 9.6

9 Adam Sandin-Pellikka 11.3

10 Oliver Moore 11.8

11 David Reinbacher 12.1

12 Colby Barlow 13.3

13 Matthew Wood 13.3

14 Nate Danielson 13.9

15 Eduard Sale 15.6

16 Gabriel Perreault 16.3

17 Brayden Yager 17.8

18 Andrew Cristall 19

19 Samuel Honzek 19.5

20 Dimitri Simashev 21.3

21 Calum Ritchie 22.1

22 Otto Stenberg 22.2

23 Thomas Willander 22.3

24 Quentin Musty 22.9

25 Mikhail Gulyalev 23.9

26 Lukas Dragicevic 24.5

27 Gavin Brindley 25.7

28 Daniel But 26.3

29 Riley Heidt 26.5

30 Bradly Nadeau 30.2

31 Ethan Gauthier 31.1

32 Gracyn Sawchyn & Jayden Perron 33.7

 

[French Collection]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-nhl-draft-rankings-top-100
 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I have compiled the rankings from 11 sources.  Most are from May, but Button is from March and Dobber from April.

Round 1 (plus 1)

1 - Bedard

2-7 - Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson, Smith, Benson and Leonard

8-11 - Dvorsky, Moore, Pellikka, and Reinbacher

12-17 - Danielson, Barlow, Perreault, Sale, Wood, and Honzek

18-27 - Yager, Cristall, Gulyaev, Stenberg, Brindley, Heidt, Ritchie, Simashev, Musty, and Willander.  (Note: This is a large group with players seemingly heading in opposite directions: Up: Simashev, Stenberg and Willander; Down: Heidt, Brindely, and Ritchie).

28 - But

29-33 - Perron, Dragicevic, Nadeau, Gauthier and Haltunnen

Round 2

34-38 - Ziemmer, Bonk, Lardis, Stramel, and Morin

39-44 - Hrabel, Cagnoni, Ciernik, Wahlberg, Augustine, and Lindstein

45-49 - Sawchyn, Edstrom (player on the rise), Price, Molendyk, and Lind

50-53 - Dower-Nilsson, Akey, Pitre, and Hameenaho

54-56 - Bjarnason, Kiiskinen, and Brzustewicz    

57-59 - Rehkopf, Minnetian, and Allen

60-64 - Molgaard (player on the rise), Strbak, Nelson, Pinelli, and Caraford

[GASabresIUFAN]

The more I read about Moore, he's the player I hope slips to us at 13.  Of the group 12-17 I'm not a huge fan of Barlow, and I worry about Perreault's skating.  I really like what I've read about Sale.

In the 2nd round, I like the big body of Bonk.  Morin is an excellent skater.  I doubt Dragiecevic falls to 39.

At 45 there should be plenty of D to choose from.  One sleeper is Max Strbak.  He's another bigger D who skates well, has a solid 2 way game and is rated as high at 34 on one of the rankings I collected.

Edited May 31, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[steveoath]

Gavin Brindley intrigues me. I am also quite high on Willander, but i don't think I'd spend 13OA on him. Im not sold on Perreault and do hope, like yourself that we can get Moore at 13. But who knows. At least we have a degree of trust with the draft team.

[French Collection]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The more I read about Moore, he's the player I hope slips to us at 13.  Of the group 12-17 I'm not a huge fan of Barlow, and I worry about Perreault's skating.  I really like what I've read about Sale.

In the 2nd round, I like the big body of Bonk.  Morin is an excellent skater.  I doubt Dragiecevic falls to 39.

At 45 there should be plenty of D to choose from.  One sleeper is Max Strbak.  He's another bigger D who skates well, has a solid 2 way game and is rated as high at 34 on one of the rankings I collected.

My views of Barlow are limited but I wasn’t really impressed. His scoring is due to his shot and nose for the net.

Morin and Dragicevic are high risk Dmen, all offense. Bonk is more well rounded.

KA & DG are building a speedy team so iffy skaters like Perreault and Dragicevic may struggle at the next level.

[Brawndo]

Chad DeDomincis released a Mock Offseason this AM. 
 

Said Moore and Simashev are names he has heard for 13th. 
 

Also they have interest in Michkov should he start to slide. Moving up for Him is something they would consider 

[#freejame]

36 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Chad DeDomincis released a Mock Offseason this AM. 
 

Said Moore and Simashev are names he has heard for 13th. 
 

Also they have interest in Michkov should he start to slide. Moving up for Him is something they would consider 

As they should 

[Flashsabre]

With Moore the electric skating and motor are right in their wheelhouse but the non elite hockey sense is not something they gravitate to.Would much rather see them grab Simashev or trade the pick for a great piece.

I would be all for moving up to grab Michkov. You would probably have to get to the Flyers and #7. Sabres can afford to wait a few years for a potential superstar.

[Eleven]

On 5/29/2023 at 7:59 PM, Crusader1969 said:

The more I think about it -  The mock that had the Sabres trading Joker for a first rounder around pick 20 seems like a really good idea for the Sabres.  Especially if it nets them Simashev 

Im assuming they sign someone in the UFA market to play with Power that would  relegate Joker to bottom pair or to 7th Dman , making him expendable 

I don't think it would be smart to trade an NHL defenseman for a chance at a player who might be NHL-ready three years from now.  If the team had a surplus of defensemen, sure, but it doesn't.

[Crusader1969]

17 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I don't think it would be smart to trade an NHL defenseman for a chance at a player who might be NHL-ready three years from now.  If the team had a surplus of defensemen, sure, but it doesn't.

I’m assuming joker is pushed Down due to 2 new nhl ready Dman added 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’m assuming joker is pushed Down due to 2 new nhl ready Dman added 

He's more valuable at 6D, maybe even at 7D, than a late first-round pick.  The Sabres are *not* deep at the position.  And defensemen *will* be injured.

Edited May 31, 2023 by Eleven

[Crusader1969]

49 minutes ago, Eleven said:

He's more valuable at 6D, maybe even at 7D, than a late first-round pick.  The Sabres are *not* deep at the position.  And defensemen *will* be injured.

I would prefer Lyubushkin as my bottom pair RHD than Joker.  
 

and yes this year maybe he is but 2 or 3 years from now a Simashev could become your number 4 

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

I would prefer Lyubushkin as my bottom pair RHD than Joker.  
 

and yes this year maybe he is but 2 or 3 years from now a Simashev could become your number 4 

Moscow Mule (Novikov) Traktor (Komarov) and Simashev could add up to some Russian horsepower.

[Eleven]

17 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I would prefer Lyubushkin as my bottom pair RHD than Joker.  

The Sabres need them both right now.

[shrader]

3 hours ago, Eleven said:

I don't think it would be smart to trade an NHL defenseman for a chance at a player who might be NHL-ready three years from now.  If the team had a surplus of defensemen, sure, but it doesn't.

And on top of that, I have a hard time seeing someone give up a 1st for him. I know, d-men always have inflated prices and someone did trade a first for Risto, I just still can’t see it. 

[Crusader1969]

3 hours ago, shrader said:

And on top of that, I have a hard time seeing someone give up a 1st for him. I know, d-men always have inflated prices and someone did trade a first for Risto, I just still can’t see it. 

RHD puck moving and over 6’.  You might be surprised 

 

[Cascade Youth]

17 hours ago, Eleven said:

The Sabres need them both right now.

Sorry but you don’t pass on a potential franchise-altering star in order to hold onto D depth.  That would be really shortsighted.  Swing for the fences.

[Eleven]

4 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

Sorry but you don’t pass on a potential franchise-altering star in order to hold onto D depth.  That would be really shortsighted.  Swing for the fences.

You think there's a potential franchise-altering star at around pick 20 in the draft?  How confident are you?  And why couldn't the Sabres take that guy at 13?

[Weave]

27 minutes ago, Eleven said:

You think there's a potential franchise-altering star at around pick 20 in the draft?  How confident are you?  And why couldn't the Sabres take that guy at 13?

#LureoftheScratchoffTicket

[French Collection]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

#LureoftheScratchoffTicket

Sometimes there is more to be gained from scratch and sniff.

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, French Collection said:

Sometimes there is more to be gained from scratch and sniff.

So let's be more concrete about it.  Considering that the Sabres have no depth at D, who is the "franchise-altering star," worth trading a defenseman for, who will be available around pick 20?  

You know who you get in the 20s in the NHL draft?  JOKIHARJU HIMSELF. Pick 29, 2017.  And then he took three-four years to make the NHL as a regular player.

NEW MATERIAL ON EDIT

Let's say that I'm pushing too hard by turning a completely hypothetical and fantasy-minded trade of Joker for 20 into 29 instead.  Let's just say that.  I'll indulge.  Here are the last 5 20th overalls.  

2022:  Ivan Miroshnichenko, RW.  I'm almost mad that I had to type that.  Not yet in the NHL.

2021:  Jesper Wallstedt, G.  Not yet in the NHL.

2020:  Shakir Mukhamadullin, D.  Not yet in the NHL.  

2019:  Ville Heinola, D.  In the AHL, but has played a grand total of 27 NHL games over THREE YEARS.

2018:  Rasmus Kupari, C.  Bounces between the NHL and AHL STILL, FIVE YEARS LATER.

Just for fun, let's go back one more year--Joker's year.  2017:  Robert Thomas, C.  He is finally regularly in the NHL, but I don't think you could even name his team without looking it up.  Not a "franchise-altering player."

In other words, Joker IS THE DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH at the end of the first round.  He's as good as it gets there.  It is incredibly unlikely that the Sabres will find a "franchise-altering player" at pick 13 (which they already have), much less at pick 20 or below.  It is completely over-valuing a lottery ticket, as @Weave aptly puts it, to think so. 

Would you bet your $800K house on a 1/1000 chance of winning only $1M?  No.  But that's the equivalent of this proposal.  High risk and low reward.

OLD MATERIAL RESUMES

If this type of thinking were to prevail, I'd be dead before the Sabres were in the playoffs again.

Edited June 1, 2023 by Eleven

[sabresparaavida]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

So let's be more concrete about it.  Considering that the Sabres have no depth at D, who is the "franchise-altering star," worth trading a defenseman for, who will be available around pick 20?  

You know who you get in the 20s in the NHL draft?  JOKIHARJU HIMSELF. Pick 29, 2017.  And then he took three-four years to make the NHL as a regular player.

NEW MATERIAL ON EDIT

Let's say that I'm pushing too hard by turning a completely hypothetical and fantasy-minded trade of Joker for 20 into 29 instead.  Let's just say that.  I'll indulge.  Here are the last 5 20th overalls.  

2022:  Ivan Miroshnichenko, RW.  I'm almost mad that I had to type that.  Not yet in the NHL.

2021:  Jesper Wallstedt, G.  Not yet in the NHL.

2020:  Shakir Mukhamadullin, D.  Not yet in the NHL.  

2019:  Ville Heinola, D.  In the AHL, but has played a grand total of 27 NHL games over THREE YEARS.

2018:  Rasmus Kupari, C.  Bounces between the NHL and AHL STILL, FIVE YEARS LATER.

Just for fun, let's go back one more year--Joker's year.  2017:  Robert Thomas, C.  He is finally regularly in the NHL, but I don't think you could even name his team without looking it up.  Not a "franchise-altering player."

In other words, Joker IS THE DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH at the end of the first round.  He's as good as it gets there.  It is incredibly unlikely that the Sabres will find a "franchise-altering player" at pick 13 (which they already have), much less at pick 20 or below.  It is completely over-valuing a lottery ticket, as @Weave aptly puts it, to think so. 

Would you bet your $800K house on a 1/1000 chance of winning only $1M?  No.  But that's the equivalent of this proposal.  High risk and low reward.

OLD MATERIAL RESUMES

If this type of thinking were to prevail, I'd be dead before the Sabres were in the playoffs again.

Is Robert Thomas “franchise altering”? No, but he has been roughly a ppg player the past 2 seasons. He’s a low end 1C/high end 2C which is more valuable than Jokiharju. Also, I’d assume most on this board know who he played for, as he was who most were hoping we got when they announced ROR was traded. 
 

I’m not saying we should trade Jokiharju, but your data for 20 OA is more like a 1 in 3 get a better player than Jokiharju in 3/4 years, as the other few picks haven’t had enough time to determine what they’ll be. With your house analogy, if Jokiharju is worth 800k, it’d be more like 1/1000 chance you get 2.5 million, 3% you get 1.5-2 million, 20% you get 1 million, 10%you get between 500k-900k, 15% you get between 0-500k and ~50% you get nothing. 

[Eleven]

19 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

He’s a low end 1C/high end 2C which is more valuable than Jokiharju.

He's a 2/3 C on a good team. He currently is a 1/2 on a 6th place team in the Central.  Do you think he'd he a 1/2 C on the current Sabres?  (The correct answer begins with the letter 'n'.)

And no, he is NOT more valuable than Jokiharju on this team as currently constructed.   The team needs NHL defensemen NOW, not centers three years from now.

Even if Adams were to trade Joker for Thomas straight up, right now, he'd be castigated, and rightly so, unless he immediately flipped another C for a D.

Geez.

Shortstops don't pitch.  Running backs don't catch.  Goalkeepers don't dribble the ball upfield.  And 20th overall picks, whatever position, typically don't play.  The team needs defensemen NOW, it has one, and people want to trade him for a freaking chance at catching lightning in a bottle.  And all of this assumes Seattle wants Joker, which is a heck of a premise to begin with.

Edited June 1, 2023 by Eleven

[Curt]

5 hours ago, Eleven said:

You know who you get in the 20s in the NHL draft?  JOKIHARJU HIMSELF. Pick 29, 2017.  And then he took three-four years to make the NHL as a regular player.

It took Jokiharju 1.5-2 seasons to establish himself as a regular nhl player.

He played nearly half a season in 2018-19 and a full NHL season in 2019-20.