Rd 1, Pick 16: Noah Östlund (C)

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, Buf4alo said:

This got me feeling great about the pick. https://thehockeywriters.com/red-wings-draft-targets-noah-ostlund/

The comparison to Aho is a good one.  His Swedish linemates were Ohgren and Lekkerimaki.  He was the straw that stirred the drink for that great line.   

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, SDS said:

Are you serious? LOL her ranking was a list of best prospects according to whatever figure of merit she or her company used, not the order of which they would be drafted. Nobody has the answer to this today. 

Yes and no.  If you are in the business of scouting draft eligible players, your job is to try to figure out who should be draft early and who should not.  She had a large number of players who her model said should be in the first round that clearly weren’t 1st rd talents.

[SDS]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes and no.  If you are in the business of scouting draft eligible players, your job is to try to figure out who should be draft early and who should not.  She had a large number of players who her model said should be in the first round that clearly weren’t 1st rd talents.

Sounds like this tweet was meant for you.

 

[NAF]

I think this is a pretty good pick. Listening to his interview it is apparent how intelligent he is -- I'd take IQ over size or strength any day. I will also add that I think he is a boom or bust prospect, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Our current prospect pool and roster has very few players with true NHL star potential. Rarely do you see an NHL team compete for Stanley Cups without a star player. I'm fine taking a risk on a potentially fantastic player if it means we're most likely getting a bust.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, SDS said:

Sounds like this tweet was meant for you.

 

I have been creating a consensus list every year for the last decade to see what experts from ex-GM Button to people like Mehgan Chayka say every year about the draft prospects to educate myself about the prospects.  For the last couple of years I have published this list on the board.  Over this decade I have found that some of these experts are better than others.  This was my first time seeing Mehgan’s work product and I was honestly disappointed.  

The consensus board did a pretty solid job.  Of the players list 1-27, only Firkus (24th) wasn’t drafted in the first round. Of the guys listed 28-32, 3 weren’t drafted in the first, and interestingly all 3 were arguably more defensive D in Chesley, Luneau and Odelius. 

[LGR4GM]

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes and no.  If you are in the business of scouting draft eligible players, your job is to try to figure out who should be draft early and who should not.  She had a large number of players who her model said should be in the first round that clearly weren’t 1st rd talents.

That’s the difference between a ranking and a mock draft.

Her best available is a ranking, not a prediction of who will be drafted next.

If you disagree with her ranking that’s fine, but to say that she is wrong because the players weren’t drafted in the order she thought they should be doesn’t check out logically.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Curt said:

That’s the difference between a ranking and a mock draft.

Her best available is a ranking, not a prediction of who will be drafted next.

If you disagree with her ranking that’s fine, but to say that she is wrong because the players weren’t drafted in the order she thought they should be doesn’t check out logically.

I never said in order. I said her model has players with lesser talent ranked significantly higher than players with clearly more talent.

[Curt]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

I never said in order. I said her model has players with lesser talent ranked significantly higher than players with clearly more talent.

Are her rankings based purely on a model?

She probably disagrees with you.  It’s fine to disagree, but when you start declaring people WRONG on draft night, you set yourself up to look pretty foolish down the road.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Are her rankings based purely on a model?

She probably disagrees with you.  It’s fine to disagree, but when you start declaring people WRONG on draft night, you set yourself up to look pretty foolish down the road.

Obviously time will tell.  However, as I mentioned comparing her list to the 16 other lists I utilized for my consensus list, many of her rankings were outliers on the bell curve.

[inkman]

52 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I never said in order. I said her model has players with lesser talent ranked significantly higher than players with clearly more talent.

I recall the combine where they measure pull ups, bench press, talent… 

[Norcal]

15 minutes ago, inkman said:

I recall the combine where they measure pull ups, bench press, talent… 

Pull ups..the ultimate measuring tool of a successful NHLer 

[bob_sauve28]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Plateaued? Was he injured? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Plateaued? Was he injured? 

No, Bader has no idea what he is talking about.  

2020-21 Östlund played 10 games at the U20 Swedish team and had 15 pts in those 10 games.  He also had 2 pts in 5 U18 WJC 

2021-22 He played 32 games for the U20 team putting up 42 including 33 assists.  He also exploded at the U18’s w 10 pts in 6 games.  

Byron can you say small sample size for the 10 games on the U20 team in 20/21?
 

 

Edited July 8, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Brawndo]

Bader’s Model also predicts this, which makes it easier to dismiss 

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm not a big fan of Bader's work.  

[Curt]

Noah Östlund’s English is very good.

[Brawndo]

https://youtu.be/Nko6YXXnlkQ

[Thorner]

On 7/7/2022 at 9:06 PM, Buffalonill said:

Rather took a chance on a Russian to be a superstar than this knob

Still chuckling @ this one. Practically guaranteed Östlund becomes a multi-time all-star by typing it up the way you did lol 

[GrassValleyGreg]

Like many, I was not a huge fan of this pick at the time. My limited reading and viewings showed a skater who played on the periphery and was uncomfortable winning puck battles and going to the front of net. I was also obsessed with the idea of getting a player like Ohgren at 16 to match with a high skill guy like Savoie.

But the more I read, the more excited I get about Östlund 's high level of playmaking skill (higher than Savoie's in my opinion) and his extremely high ceiling, especially when he adds the weight and confidence to go in the dirty areas. There's also advanced metrics out there that show he drove the Lekki/Ohgren line, which eases the pain of missing out on Ohgren. 

Similar to Savoie, Östlund has been on scouts' radars for some time. From Draftin Europe: a big favorite since 2020, Östlund has not let down our high expectations since. He had to fight through different injuries during this year and one could argue he didn't take as much of a step forward as some of his peers, but finished his draft season in style with a strong showing at the U18s despite a sore shoulder (a carryover from the Swedish junior playoffs), leading his team to an unlikely Gold Medal. At 15, he was already showing on-ice awareness that most pros don't possess.

If you want a strong dose of hopium, I recommend reading Draftin Europe's draft guide, which is currently free and can be found here. They have Östlund as the third best player out of Europe with a Top 5 grade (note: these guys also had Seider and Pettersson as Top 5's so they have a record of going against the grain and actually getting it right). 

Strengths

Östlund is a natural, he’s one of those players that have an instinctive and thorough understanding of the game. At 15 he was already showing on-ice awareness that most pros don't possess. It’s an easy trait to recognize, not only in his play with the puck, but also in his play without it. Noah uses his IQ and vision to be a consistent defensive factor despite limited size, displaying tremendous on-ice attitude and work rate. He is relentless in his efforts and that attitude is, in fact, what we feel really separates Östlund from other prospects. It's particularly rare to find a teenager who plays such a skillful game and at the same time possesses the will (and the cardio) to go after the puck time after time. The combination of that innate perseverance with his ability to read the play and his deft stick work allows him to take away many pucks from the opposition.

Östlund is capable of setting up his teammates as soon as he gets possession. Alternatively, he can go to work himself building up the play. His skating agility and stickhandling prowess make him an elusive puck carrier. He can find his way through traffic when attacking the offensive blueline. When being chased with the puck, he regularly relies on fakes and quick turns to create separation. He shows good instincts to protect the puck (positioning his body well to complement his puck handling), usually keeping it out of his opponent's reach. As he buys himself some time with the puck, Östlund can find open teammates in the offensive zone, even when they aren't an available option at first.

He remains a deceptive player when he gets closer to the boards as well. He doesn't play scared in any way, and is able to turn in tight spaces to find a way out (between the wall and the pressing opponents), often drawing two players before quickly dishing out the puck to a supporting teammate, who got open as a result of Östlund’s movement. Noah plays with his head up and dances on top of the ice. He has a low center of gravity and wide base and can explode out of tight turns. He makes deep cuts and abruptly shifts his weight and changes direction. He is nimble, slippery, creative, and highly skilled.

He is opportunistic around the net and contributes in all three zones. He can be relied on in all situations including first unit powerplay and penalty kill. His traits make him a prime option for top duties on both special teams and at 3-on-3 in overtime. He is the kind of player who still brings a positive contribution to his team overall in his less effective games. He can grind and make his presence felt on the forecheck. His motor, quickness of play and compete level are truly remarkable. He can move the puck in stride within milliseconds, as he processes the game like a chess master steps ahead of his opponents.

Weaknesses

We feel like most shortcomings in Östlund's game come from his current lack of strength and power. He has good shooting mechanics including a deceiving release, but will need to add power to become a respected shooter at the senior level. He is probably never going to be much of a long-range shooting threat, but becoming more of a threat from mid-range would make it more difficult to defend him off the rush. Noah is effective one on one as he usually finds his way around his opponents, but once physically engaged it becomes difficult for him to keep going. He gets bounced around pretty easily.

While he is capable of finding his way through to the middle of the ice with the puck, we feel he doesn’t do this as often as we’d like. Trying to get to the inside more regularly, however, is another thing that may go hand-in-hand with physical growth. Attacking wide in smaller NHL rinks may prove to be more complicated and could expose him to frequent checks along the side boards. Östlund will need to physically develop before making a significant impression in professional hockey. We are positive this will happen, however, given his character and work rate.

[dudacek]

One of the fittest kids in the draft.

Always figured this was a draft where a couple of the best players were going to go outside the top 10.

It might take a while, but he’s a candidate. He’s skilled, but he’s also smarter than his peers and he wants it more.

Don't be sleeping on this one.

[French Collection]

46 minutes ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

Like many, I was not a huge fan of this pick at the time. My limited reading and viewings showed a skater who played on the periphery and was uncomfortable winning puck battles and going to the front of net. I was also obsessed with the idea of getting a player like Ohgren at 16 to match with a high skill guy like Savoie.

But the more I read, the more excited I get about Östlund 's high level of playmaking skill (higher than Savoie's in my opinion) and his extremely high ceiling, especially when he adds the weight and confidence to go in the dirty areas. There's also advanced metrics out there that show he drove the Lekki/Ohgren line, which eases the pain of missing out on Ohgren. 

Similar to Savoie, Östlund has been on scouts' radars for some time. From Draftin Europe: a big favorite since 2020, Östlund has not let down our high expectations since. He had to fight through different injuries during this year and one could argue he didn't take as much of a step forward as some of his peers, but finished his draft season in style with a strong showing at the U18s despite a sore shoulder (a carryover from the Swedish junior playoffs), leading his team to an unlikely Gold Medal. At 15, he was already showing on-ice awareness that most pros don't possess.

If you want a strong dose of hopium, I recommend reading Draftin Europe's draft guide, which is currently free and can be found here. They have Östlund as the third best player out of Europe with a Top 5 grade (note: these guys also had Seider and Pettersson as Top 5's so they have a record of going against the grain and actually getting it right). 

Strengths

Östlund is a natural, he’s one of those players that have an instinctive and thorough understanding of the game. At 15 he was already showing on-ice awareness that most pros don't possess. It’s an easy trait to recognize, not only in his play with the puck, but also in his play without it. Noah uses his IQ and vision to be a consistent defensive factor despite limited size, displaying tremendous on-ice attitude and work rate. He is relentless in his efforts and that attitude is, in fact, what we feel really separates Östlund from other prospects. It's particularly rare to find a teenager who plays such a skillful game and at the same time possesses the will (and the cardio) to go after the puck time after time. The combination of that innate perseverance with his ability to read the play and his deft stick work allows him to take away many pucks from the opposition.

Östlund is capable of setting up his teammates as soon as he gets possession. Alternatively, he can go to work himself building up the play. His skating agility and stickhandling prowess make him an elusive puck carrier. He can find his way through traffic when attacking the offensive blueline. When being chased with the puck, he regularly relies on fakes and quick turns to create separation. He shows good instincts to protect the puck (positioning his body well to complement his puck handling), usually keeping it out of his opponent's reach. As he buys himself some time with the puck, Östlund can find open teammates in the offensive zone, even when they aren't an available option at first.

He remains a deceptive player when he gets closer to the boards as well. He doesn't play scared in any way, and is able to turn in tight spaces to find a way out (between the wall and the pressing opponents), often drawing two players before quickly dishing out the puck to a supporting teammate, who got open as a result of Östlund’s movement. Noah plays with his head up and dances on top of the ice. He has a low center of gravity and wide base and can explode out of tight turns. He makes deep cuts and abruptly shifts his weight and changes direction. He is nimble, slippery, creative, and highly skilled.

He is opportunistic around the net and contributes in all three zones. He can be relied on in all situations including first unit powerplay and penalty kill. His traits make him a prime option for top duties on both special teams and at 3-on-3 in overtime. He is the kind of player who still brings a positive contribution to his team overall in his less effective games. He can grind and make his presence felt on the forecheck. His motor, quickness of play and compete level are truly remarkable. He can move the puck in stride within milliseconds, as he processes the game like a chess master steps ahead of his opponents.

Weaknesses

We feel like most shortcomings in Östlund's game come from his current lack of strength and power. He has good shooting mechanics including a deceiving release, but will need to add power to become a respected shooter at the senior level. He is probably never going to be much of a long-range shooting threat, but becoming more of a threat from mid-range would make it more difficult to defend him off the rush. Noah is effective one on one as he usually finds his way around his opponents, but once physically engaged it becomes difficult for him to keep going. He gets bounced around pretty easily.

While he is capable of finding his way through to the middle of the ice with the puck, we feel he doesn’t do this as often as we’d like. Trying to get to the inside more regularly, however, is another thing that may go hand-in-hand with physical growth. Attacking wide in smaller NHL rinks may prove to be more complicated and could expose him to frequent checks along the side boards. Östlund will need to physically develop before making a significant impression in professional hockey. We are positive this will happen, however, given his character and work rate.

Thanks for the link, they are really high on Östlund. He just needs time to develop and grow. Time will tell.

[dudacek]

I don’t know if they make many centres like Östlund any more.

He’s a throwback to the old 200-foot playmaking centres of the 1960s - Keon,  Mikita, Henri Richard: fast, intense little guys who drove play before that was ever a term.

This is the type of guy made to play the middle of the ice, using his speed, vision and hands to blunt the attack in his own zone, transition the puck out of his zone and into the opponents, and distribute to open teammates in the offensive zone.

He’s a point guard, a hub and a funnel, finding and creating open ice.

I hope he fills out his frame and his game translates to the NHL pace, because I am really going to enjoy watching him play. He has the skill set to make a finisher like Olofsson, Savoie, Quinn, Kulich, Rosen or even a Neuchev very rich.

Edited August 4, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

We have had long discussions on Savoie and Kulich, but Östlund seems to have fallen through the cracks a little bit.  He reminds me of Krebs 2.0 and that is not a bad thing.  We have goal scorers, but outside of Krebs and maybe Mitts, we really don't have many pure playmakers to get our scorers like Quinn, VO and TNT the puck.

Anyway, NHL.com has a nice write up on Östlund.  https://www.nhl.com/news/noah-Östlund-evolving-with-buffalo-sabres-keeps-improving/c-335144848

 

[Thorner]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We have had long discussions on Savoie and Kulich, but Östlund seems to have fallen through the cracks a little bit.  He reminds me of Krebs 2.0 and that is not a bad thing.  We have goal scorers, but outside of Krebs and maybe Mitts, we really don't have many pure playmakers to get our scorers like Quinn, VO and TNT the puck.

Anyway, NHL.com has a nice write up on Östlund.  https://www.nhl.com/news/noah-Östlund-evolving-with-buffalo-sabres-keeps-improving/c-335144848

 

Definitely agree here. Loved seeing them add that pure playmaker to the system in Östlund. Krebs, Östlund do look like the two forwards in system who best fit the “pure playmaker” description.

Quinn, Cozens, Savoie, Kulich, Peterka, Mittelstadt.. all these guys seem to have pretty balanced pass-to-shoot preferences. (Though if Savoie really does become the next Briere, he’d lean “pass”)

I suppose on roster, Tuch is a guy who is pass-first. Looking at the roster/system, outside Skinner we don’t seem to have a ton of “shoot first, sniper” type players, either. Kisakov, Poltapov, Rosen? Not that familiar with them. 

Really, the Sabres definitely seem focused on acquiring forwards with balance. Seems to be the name of the game, that versatility. Quinn being the poster child. He seems to both shoot and pass equally well. 

Edited August 4, 2022 by Thorny