Rd 1, Pick 9: Matthew Savoie (C)

[Curt]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As much as I like Savoie’s potential,  he is not the 9th best player not currently in the NHL.  NHL network has him 49th.  

Wheeler has him rated above Quinn, also a 9th overall pick, who is already a proven pro hockey player that just tore up the AHL. He is also rated ahead of JJP.  NHL Network has Quinn 13 and JJP 23.  Those rankings seem more realistic as they reflect current development.

Until we see Savoie succeed against men he is just a pile of potential.  
 

Wheeler’s list is not a ranking of the “best players not currently in the NHL”.

Its a list of the best drafted prospects, which obviously is a subjective evaluation of the players taking future potential strongly into account.  Not just ranking who has proven the most against men.

Savoie has not had the opportunity to play against men, through no fault of his own.  It’s still possible to evaluate him as a better prospect than Quinn.  To say that Savoie isn’t a better prospect because he hasn’t played against men is a lazy argument, in my eyes.  He needs to be evaluated for the skills and potential he has, not just based on the leagues he has played in this far.

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As much as I like Savoie’s potential,  he is not the 9th best player not currently in the NHL.  NHL network has him 49th.  

Wheeler has him rated above Quinn, also a 9th overall pick, who is already a proven pro hockey player that just tore up the AHL. He is also rated ahead of JJP.  NHL Network has Quinn 13 and JJP 23.  Those rankings seem more realistic as they reflect current development.

Until we see Savoie succeed against men he is just a pile of potential.  
 

There’s nothing wrong with either list, they just use different parameters. Using the term “proven” because of AHL performance, of all things, is already dicey. If one is ranking their list weighted heavily towards ceiling, combined with a hesitance to allow AHL performance to overrule everything else, I can see lists with Savoie ahead of guys especially like Peterka. 

To many, AHL performance isn’t “proof”, at all. At least not enough to wholly disregard what went into the rankings beforehand. I’m not saying I’d put the same emphasis on AHL as Wheeler did, but that he doesn’t use it as the defining factor isn’t surprising to me 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There’s nothing wrong with either list, they just use different parameters. Using the term “proven” because of AHL performance, of all things, is already dicey. If one is ranking their list weighted heavily towards ceiling, combined with a hesitance to allow AHL performance to overrule everything else, I can see lists with Savoie ahead of guys especially like Peterka. 

To many, AHL performance isn’t “proof”, at all. At least not enough to wholly disregard what went into the rankings beforehand. I’m not saying I’d put the same emphasis on AHL as Wheeler did, but that he doesn’t use it as the defining factor isn’t surprising to me 

AHL isn't proof per se, but it is a much better indicator of whether someone is ready for the NHL and can succeed in the NHL vs someone putting up 100 pts in the Q post draft.  That doesn't mean they'll become stars in the NHL, but history says they'll be excellent players.

Here is a list of of the top 10 in AHL scoring as 19 years: Spezza (1.25 pts/g), W Nylander (1.18), Rantanen (1.15), Tomasino (1.10), Reichel (1.01), Pavel Demitra (1), Alex Holtz (.98), Peterka (.97), Vrana (.94), Bergeron (.89).  That's a pretty strong list.

Here is the top 7 list in the AHL at 20: Martin Lapointe (1.64), Satan (1.6), QUINN (1.35), Briere (1.35), Ryan Strome (1.32), Marc Savard (1.27) and Logan Couture (1.26).  Another pretty strong list.

 

 

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

AHL isn't proof per se, but it is a much better indicator of whether someone is ready for the NHL and can succeed in the NHL vs someone putting up 100 pts in the Q post draft.  That doesn't mean they'll become stars in the NHL, but history says they'll be excellent players.

Here is a list of of the top 10 in AHL scoring as 19 years: Spezza (1.25 pts/g), W Nylander (1.18), Rantanen (1.15), Tomasino (1.10), Reichel (1.01), Pavel Demitra (1), Alex Holtz (.98), Peterka (.97), Vrana (.94), Bergeron (.89).  That's a pretty strong list.

Here is the top 7 list in the AHL at 20: Martin Lapointe (1.64), Satan (1.6), QUINN (1.35), Briere (1.35), Ryan Strome (1.32), Marc Savard (1.27) and Logan Couture (1.26).  Another pretty strong list.

 

 

For him it probably just comes down to him expecting strong development from Savoie UNTIL proven otherwise. As in, there’s only so much Quinn and Peterka can improve upon their initial prospect rank, pre NHL , to Scott, whereas he’s going to see the projection for Savoie until it’s shown to be inaccurate. 

[Huckleberry]

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 7/26/2022 at 10:59 AM, Flashsabre said:

Everyone listed on all the prospects lists around the league is just a pile of potential.

Yes and no.  What Quinn and JJP accomplished in the AHL at their ages is unusual and everyone who has ever accomplished it has gone on to have an excellent NHL career.  

Again here is the list I posted up thread.  The top 10 in AHL scoring at 19 years: Spezza (1.25 pts/g), W Nylander (1.18), Rantanen (1.15), Tomasino (1.10), Reichel (1.01), Pavel Demitra (1), Alex Holtz (.98), Peterka (.97), Vrana (.94), Bergeron (.89).  That's a pretty strong list.

Here is the top 7 list in the AHL at 20: Martin Lapointe (1.64), Satan (1.6), QUINN (1.35), Briere (1.35), Ryan Strome (1.32), Marc Savard (1.27) and Logan Couture (1.26).  Another pretty strong list.

 

[Doohicksie]

I tripped across a piece that says the Sabres tried to trade up to 8 to get Marco Kasper.  I assume it would have been 9 + a sweetener for 8.  Yzerman didn't bite.  The article cites Kasper's dad as a source. 

https://detroitsportsnation.com/red-wings-gm-steve-yzerman-reportedly-turned-down-nhl-draft-trade-offer/wgbrady/nhl/detroit-red-wings-news/07/29/2022/285412/

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

I tripped across a piece that says the Sabres tried to trade up to 8 to get Marco Kasper.  I assume it would have been 9 + a sweetener for 8.  Yzerman didn't bite.  The article cites Kasper's dad as a source. 

https://detroitsportsnation.com/red-wings-gm-steve-yzerman-reportedly-turned-down-nhl-draft-trade-offer/wgbrady/nhl/detroit-red-wings-news/07/29/2022/285412/

Umm, the Sabres thought they'd traded up to 7 (from 16).  If they were hoping for Kasper and Savoie, why would they've traded with Detroit to only land 1 and lose another asset to do so?

[thewookie1]

5 hours ago, Taro T said:

Umm, the Sabres thought they'd traded up to 7 (from 16).  If they were hoping for Kasper and Savoie, why would they've traded with Detroit to only land 1 and lose another asset to do so?

My guess was  that offer came prior to the Murray trade idea. Probing who Detroit wanted

 

 

Edited July 30, 2022 by thewookie1

[sabresparaavida]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

My guess was  that offer came prior to the Murray trade idea. Probing who Detroit wanted

 

 

My guess would be they tried sending 16+ for 8, in an effort to get Kasper and Savoie. 

[DarthEbriate]

9 hours ago, Taro T said:

Umm, the Sabres thought they'd traded up to 7 (from 16).  If they were hoping for Kasper and Savoie, why would they've traded with Detroit to only land 1 and lose another asset to do so?

If the Sabres had landed #7 (and Murray with money retained) and held 9 and 28, it leads to the interesting what-if scenario: Provided DET doesn't trade up into the top 6...   The Sabres have to take Kasper at 7 to nab him. Then, does Yzerman take Savoie at 8 or someone else?

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

If the Sabres had landed #7 (and Murray with money retained) and held 9 and 28, it leads to the interesting what-if scenario: Provided DET doesn't trade up into the top 6...   The Sabres have to take Kasper at 7 to nab him. Then, does Yzerman take Savoie at 8 or someone else?

Good Q.

And if Savoie is gone, do the Sabres still take Östlund or was somebody that went before him higher on their list?

[DarthEbriate]

Korchinski, Mintyukov, Geekie, Mateychuk, Nazar, McGroarty, Lekkerimaki are the picks that went between 7 and 16. I think there's a solid case to take any of them before Östlund. The follow-up scenario to that becomes what a lot of us were concerned with in the Murray trade thread: Is that it? He can't be the guy, right? And would Comrie still sign with Buffalo if we had Murray? Or would it be Comrie/Samsonov in Toronto and Murray/Anderson here?

Edit: But I like Savoie's potential over Kasper's... to stay on target for the thread.

Edited July 30, 2022 by DarthEbriate

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Korchinski, Mintyukov, Geekie, Mateychuk, Nazar, McGroarty, Lekkerimaki are the picks that went between 7 and 16. I think there's a solid case to take any of them before Östlund. The follow-up scenario to that becomes what a lot of us were concerned with in the Murray trade thread: Is that it? He can't be the guy, right? And would Comrie still sign with Buffalo if we had Murray? Or would it be Comrie/Samsonov in Toronto and Murray/Anderson here?

Edit: But I like Savoie's potential over Kasper's... to stay on target for the thread.

Yeah, if Adams was done on the goalie front with Murray in the fold, expect we dodged a bullet when he nixed the deal.  Am happier w/ Savoie and Comrie than Kasper and Murray.

Edited July 30, 2022 by Taro T

[Thorner]

Glad they didn’t move from 9 to 8 if that was the play, much prefer Savoie to Kasper 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Glad they didn’t move from 9 to 8 if that was the play, much prefer Savoie to Kasper 

Yeah, I think Savoie has a higher offensive ceiling. Kasper seems more NHL ready but tops out at middle six C.

Did you watch Savoie live at all this past season?

[Thorner]

19 hours ago, French Collection said:

Yeah, I think Savoie has a higher offensive ceiling. Kasper seems more NHL ready but tops out at middle six C.

Did you watch Savoie live at all this past season?

Unfortunately no - hope to this season though 

[JoeSchmoe]

Savoie is 33rd in WHL points per game right now. Is he playing hurt?

Seems like a cause for concern.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Savoie is 33rd in WHL points per game right now. Is he playing hurt?

Seems like a cause for concern.

Or, like a lot of kids that go back to juniors, he has an assignment if you will from the Sabres on what he needs to work on and he’s been doing that. 

[SDS]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Savoie is 33rd in WHL points per game right now. Is he playing hurt?

Seems like a cause for concern.

You ignored the big orange warning that says DON'T DO WHAT YOU ARE ABOUT TO DO WITH THIS OLD TOPIC to revive a 4 month old draft topic, to write his point total in the WHL? Back broken.