Around the NHL: 2022 Off-season

[Curt]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'd say that's fair, but what if you could get him for picks or prospects? If you could do that, he would make us a better team than we are. I'd certainly pick up the phone and ask the price. 

Would he make Buffalo a better team than they are?  Is he any better than Bryson?  Honestly asking.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Would he make Buffalo a better team than they are?  Is he any better than Bryson?  Honestly asking.

He's better than Bryson most likely. But is he better than Jokiharju, idk haven't watched rangers hockey much. 

[LTS]

If you can get him for the right price, you get him.  If he earns a spot on the team, perfect. If he doesn't because you have better players and you can flip him for a better haul than you gave up, you do it.

You go after talent even if you have talent, if the price is right.

[dudacek]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

Would he make Buffalo a better team than they are?  Is he any better than Bryson?  Honestly asking.

This.

I’m certainly not opposed to adding RHD with upside, but this guy at 22 seems to be in the same place in his development today where Jokiharju was at 19.

He seems to be a Pilut type player with a skill set that’s kinda redundant on a team with Power and Dahlin.

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Curt said:

Would he make Buffalo a better team than they are?  Is he any better than Bryson?  Honestly asking.

I think he's definitely better than Bryson and in the right system with the right coach I think he still has upside and more potential than Bryson. Long term you'd want to pair him with a shut down guy but imo he'd make us better. 

It sounds like he has issues with Gallant and maybe Gallant's hard ass approach so he'd probably respond well to Granato. 

[Huckleberry]

I would not give up much for him, 2 years ago maybe but now he fell through the cracks of the NHL.   

We have room for 3HD at the moment, but I seen ridiculous offers like Casey straight up on other boards.   No thanks to trades like that at most they can have 3rd round pick and a lower tier prospect.

[Huckleberry]

18 hours ago, Weave said:

If his complaint is blocking for powerplay time he sure won’t like Buffalo.  Dahlin and probably Power are gonna monopolize the PP.

He has Fox , Trouba and Schneider on RHD depchart ahead of him.   He regressed a bit and is not  a Drury pick.     We can take a chance on him for sure.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Huckleberry

[LGR4GM]

 

[Curt]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Ages 30-36 at $8M per

[Huckleberry]

Well rangers fans will be sad now, they been whining to get him to NY all summer 😛

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Ages 30-36 at $8M per

With the style he plays that contract will age like milk.

[LGR4GM]

Interestingly, more ppl like this contract than the Thompson deal. I find this funny because Miller's 1st 2 seasons mirror Tages shot% numbers with a big jump in season 3.

[thewookie1]

27 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Interestingly, more ppl like this contract than the Thompson deal. I find this funny because Miller's 1st 2 seasons mirror Tages shot% numbers with a big jump in season 3.

Not to mention Miller's age is almost entirely in his 30's for the contract's length.

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Interestingly, more ppl like this contract than the Thompson deal. I find this funny because Miller's 1st 2 seasons mirror Tages shot% numbers with a big jump in season 3.

Because he's a consistent performer and a character guy. He's basically putting up a point a game and that will almost definitely continue so fans in Vancouver are happy he's staying. Having said that, with his age, they might regret the term if he drops off after a few years. Tage's contract will be a great deal IF (and it's a big IF) he continues to produce at the same level as this past year but the question mark, as you well know, is because it's based on only 1 year of that type of production so it is a gamble. Calculated, and possibly a good one, but still a gamble. 

[PerreaultForever]

23 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

I would not give up much for him, 2 years ago maybe but now he fell through the cracks of the NHL.   

We have room for 3HD at the moment, but I seen ridiculous offers like Casey straight up on other boards.   No thanks to trades like that at most they can have 3rd round pick and a lower tier prospect.

I'd give them Rosen straight up. If they'd take it.   Either that or picks down the road (not next year). 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Because he's a consistent performer and a character guy. He's basically putting up a point a game and that will almost definitely continue so fans in Vancouver are happy he's staying. Having said that, with his age, they might regret the term if he drops off after a few years. Tage's contract will be a great deal IF (and it's a big IF) he continues to produce at the same level as this past year but the question mark, as you well know, is because it's based on only 1 year of that type of production so it is a gamble. Calculated, and possibly a good one, but still a gamble. 

I'm not sure why you seem very confident of this and much less so about Tage.

The 5 full seasons before Miller got to Vancouver, he scored between 43 and 58 points.

The 3 seasons before that, he had 33 points total, kinda like Tage's 35 in his first 3 NHL seasons.

Miller has had 1 season similar to Tage's 68 points — a 72 — and last season's 99, which was certainly an outlier based on a 10-year sample season.

I do not think paying Miller $8 million from age 30 to 36 will turn out to be a smarter investment than paying Thompson $7 million from age 25 to 32.

Edited September 3, 2022 by dudacek

[Zamboni]

Because naturally other teams shiny toy is better than our shiny toy. Amirite?
 

Looking at it objectively and fairly…. The Vancouver Miller gamble is a bigger one than the Buffalo TNT gamble. Both are still gambles.

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I'm not sure why you seem very confident of this and much less so about Tage.

The 5 full seasons before Miller got to Vancouver, he scored between 43 and 58 points.

The 3 seasons before that, he had 33 points total, kinda like Tage's 35 in his first 3 NHL seasons.

Miller has had 1 season similar to Tage's 68 points — a 72 — and last season's 99, which was certainly an outlier based on a 10-year sample season.

I do not think paying Miller $8 million from age 30 to 36 will turn out to be a smarter investment than paying Thompson $7 million from age 25 to 32.

Miller’s best previous season was 72 pts. Jumping up to 99pts at age 29 is not the norm but he was hitting UFA so there is that. I doubt he gets that number again.

[Thorner]

I don’t think the Tage gamble is necessarily lesser than the Miller gamble because, at least for the first few years of Miller’s deal, the “floor” has gotta be higher than Tage’s if we consider Miller has at least stabilized as a 50+ two-way player, whereas Tage’s floor is technically less predictable. This is because he not only has one “leap ahead” year like Miller, he only has 1 good year, period. 

I’m still taking TT’s deal given the choice, because his age at time of signing obviously fits in significantly better w/our timeline than Miller’s. 

[Thorner]

18 hours ago, French Collection said:

Miller’s best previous season was 72 pts. Jumping up to 99pts at age 29 is not the norm but he was hitting UFA so there is that. I doubt he gets that number again.

No, but he has averaged 88 points per 82 over the last 3 seasons. 58 points per season for his career, including all his breaking-into-the-league games. Tage is at 38 per for his career. 

I believe in Tage, because the timing of the breakout year and the numerous factors others and I have mentioned that explain the jump, but we ARE betting on a singular season of actual bankable results. 

But again, that’s the point, have to find that value when you can. Way better chance he outplays his deal than Miller. 

[dudacek]

Like @Thorny said, based on statistical trends Miller’s a much safer bet short-term. Long-term, Thompson offers much better up-side.

There’s a chance the Miller deal may turn out like the Okposo deal, but a better bet is that he puts up 70 points for a few more seasons before he falls off. When and by how much will determine how good the deal is. It’s the standard gamble one takes with a UFA in his late 20s.

Thompson is the standard gamble GMs have to decide whether to take on RFAs on their 3rd contract. The Sabres decided to role the dice with Eichel and Thompson, and not with Reinhart and Olofsson. 

 

[PickaPecaPickles]

This was on my Twitter feed...Ouch!

 

[LGR4GM]

 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Good idea. 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Good idea. 

Indeed.