Around the NHL: 2022 Off-season

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Nathan bringing the cup home today.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nathan-mackinnon-s-stanley-cup-parade-set-to-happen-saturday-in-halifax-1.6032817

 

[sweetlou]

So Romanov and Dobson contracts give me hope when it comes to the extensions of Mule and Power in the next couple years. 

If KA can extend Mule for 3 years at $2.5mil, and Power for 3 years at $4 million that will help in the long run. 

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

Power for 3 years at $4 million that will help in the long run.

[sweetlou]

13 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Explain??

[DarthEbriate]

I can easily see Power's 2nd contract being a bit of a bargain (in the $3.5-$5M range). He'll get a chunk of cash for being #1 overall, but he's not going to be a massive points producer unless Dahlin gets hurt. I don't see Granato putting two D on the top power play unit and I don't see Power kicking Dahlin off the top PP in the next two seasons as Dahlin also is continuing to improve.

The cautionary tale: What's better than a #1 point-producing defenseman? TWO #1 point-producing defensemen. The trouble is, there's only minutes for one #1 PP QB type guy on the ice, particularly the D-man who can play 1:30 of a power play if you keep the puck in the offensive zone. Burns was scoring 67-83 points per season in SJ, Karlsson was scoring 62-82 points per year in Ottawa. Since they're both on SJ they've combined for: 83 Burns 45 Karlsson (it half worked!), 45 Burns 40 Karlsson (same as one of them alone), 29 Burns 22 Karlsson (epic fail, injuries), 54 Burns 35 Karlsson (same as one alone). Burns ended up getting traded with 34% salary retention.

[Zamboni]

3 hours ago, sweetlou said:

Explain??

I think what he’s saying is something along the lines of …

 

it’s funny to think the Sabres AND Power would consider a short term contract. It’s 7 or 8 years, or it’s nothing. A 3-4 year contract won’t happen with Power.

[LGR4GM]

56 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I can easily see Power's 2nd contract being a bit of a bargain (in the $3.5-$5M range). He'll get a chunk of cash for being #1 overall, but he's not going to be a massive points producer unless Dahlin gets hurt. I don't see Granato putting two D on the top power play unit and I don't see Power kicking Dahlin off the top PP in the next two seasons as Dahlin also is continuing to improve.

The cautionary tale: What's better than a #1 point-producing defenseman? TWO #1 point-producing defensemen. The trouble is, there's only minutes for one #1 PP QB type guy on the ice, particularly the D-man who can play 1:30 of a power play if you keep the puck in the offensive zone. Burns was scoring 67-83 points per season in SJ, Karlsson was scoring 62-82 points per year in Ottawa. Since they're both on SJ they've combined for: 83 Burns 45 Karlsson (it half worked!), 45 Burns 40 Karlsson (same as one of them alone), 29 Burns 22 Karlsson (epic fail, injuries), 54 Burns 35 Karlsson (same as one alone). Burns ended up getting traded with 34% salary retention.

Brent Burns was 33 and Karlsson was 28. Karlsson has had significant injuries after the trade. 

Rasmus Dahlin is 22 and Owen Power is about to be 20. 

I think we are fooling ourselves if we believe Owen Power will only earn around 4mil for his second deal (unless they bridge him). Guess we shall see. 

[PerreaultForever]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Brent Burns was 33 and Karlsson was 28. Karlsson has had significant injuries after the trade. 

Rasmus Dahlin is 22 and Owen Power is about to be 20. 

I think we are fooling ourselves if we believe Owen Power will only earn around 4mil for his second deal (unless they bridge him). Guess we shall see. 

Valid, but let's wait and see how good he actually is before we toss him a pile of cash. 

I remember when this board was discussing how the Sabres would afford 8 million plus for Mittlestadt with Eichel, Skinner and Reinhart on the books as well. So wait and see for a few years of that entry contract before we worry about how much we need. Having too many good young players in need of cash will be an actually refreshing dilemma for this team if it happens. 

[dudacek]

Comparables as #1 pick are Ekblad (7 years, $7.5 million in 2016, 8.4 in today's $) and Dahlin (3 years, $6 million last summer.

Long-term recent deals to 2nd-contract young 1st-pairing defencemen range from Quinn Hughes at $7.8 to Zach Werenski at $10. That includes Chabot, Heiskanen, Fox, Makar and McAvoy.

Guys like Rasmus Anderson and Brandon Carlo were the ones getting $4.5 million.

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Valid, but let's wait and see how good he actually is before we toss him a pile of cash. 

I remember when this board was discussing how the Sabres would afford 8 million plus for Mittlestadt with Eichel, Skinner and Reinhart on the books as well. So wait and see for a few years of that entry contract before we worry about how much we need. Having too many good young players in need of cash will be an actually refreshing dilemma for this team if it happens. 

Power will be eligible for an extension next summer and requiring one the summer after that.

Edited August 23, 2022 by dudacek

[Huckleberry]

3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

I can easily see Power's 2nd contract being a bit of a bargain (in the $3.5-$5M range). He'll get a chunk of cash for being #1 overall, but he's not going to be a massive points producer unless Dahlin gets hurt. I don't see Granato putting two D on the top power play unit and I don't see Power kicking Dahlin off the top PP in the next two seasons as Dahlin also is continuing to improve.

The cautionary tale: What's better than a #1 point-producing defenseman? TWO #1 point-producing defensemen. The trouble is, there's only minutes for one #1 PP QB type guy on the ice, particularly the D-man who can play 1:30 of a power play if you keep the puck in the offensive zone. Burns was scoring 67-83 points per season in SJ, Karlsson was scoring 62-82 points per year in Ottawa. Since they're both on SJ they've combined for: 83 Burns 45 Karlsson (it half worked!), 45 Burns 40 Karlsson (same as one of them alone), 29 Burns 22 Karlsson (epic fail, injuries), 54 Burns 35 Karlsson (same as one alone). Burns ended up getting traded with 34% salary retention.

I disagree, I can see both of them getting heavy usage last 10 minutes of a game, can put them together even when behind last 3 minutes.

[Doohicksie]

11 hours ago, sweetlou said:

Explain??

You think he'll be that cheap?

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Comparables as #1 pick are Ekblad (7 years, $7.5 million in 2016, 8.4 in today's $) and Dahlin (3 years, $6 million last summer.

This.

[Doohicksie]

This is an old tweet but what the heck.

 

[DarthEbriate]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Rasmus Dahlin is 22 and Owen Power is about to be 20. 

I think we are fooling ourselves if we believe Owen Power will only earn around 4mil for his second deal (unless they bridge him). Guess we shall see. 

Power and Dahlin both need new contracts the summer of 2024. The cap might begin to climb that year, but is more likely to start climbing in 2025 and beyond. Power may elect for the bridge and bet on himself on for the 3rd contract.

Two comparisons in the event he has career-altering injuries and only gets 8 years of NHL service: A) 2024 signs 8x$8M. B) 2024 signs 2x$4.5M, 2026 signs 8x$11M (but only plays 6 seasons) with the escalated cap. Option B nets more cash. And, if healthy, he still has 1 more mega contract in either case.

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Comparables as #1 pick are Ekblad (7 years, $7.5 million in 2016, 8.4 in today's $) and Dahlin (3 years, $6 million last summer.

Long-term recent deals to 2nd-contract young 1st-pairing defencemen range from Quinn Hughes at $7.8 to Zach Werenski at $10. That includes Chabot, Heiskanen, Fox, Makar and McAvoy.

Guys like Rasmus Anderson and Brandon Carlo were the ones getting $4.5 million.

Power will be eligible for an extension next summer and requiring one the summer after that.

Every one of these bolded were the undisputed #1 and PP defensemen at the time of signing their contract.

Ekblad. Signed 2016. In 2015-16, Ekblad led the D in scoring and Brian Campbell was in his final year of contract as the only other viable PP guy. Ekblad was taking the reins.

Hughes. Signed Oct 2021. Previous season outscored the next closest D (Myers) 41 points to 21 points.

Werenski. Note: 3rd contract (3-yr bridge). Signed July 2021. Previous season missed 1/3 of the games. Had the highest ATOI on PP, but was 2nd in scoring D to Seth Jones.

Chabot. Signed Sep 2019. Note: ELC had 2 slide years. Previous season was 3rd on team in scoring and doubled the next closest D in points (Ceci).

Heiskanen. Signed Jul 2021. Previous season was 2nd in D scoring to Klingberg, but ATOI was 24:58 (25 min/night) to Klingberg's 22:42. But, Klingberg was killing it on a 7x$4.25M cap hit so Dallas could afford to lock in Heiskanen as the #1 future.

I'll stop there because Fox, Makar, and McAvoy are likely even more extreme.

5 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

I disagree, I can see both of them getting heavy usage last 10 minutes of a game, can put them together even when behind last 3 minutes.

My main argument is simply Dahlin is the guy and is still ascending himself. You make top dollar as a D by getting points on the PP. Dahlin's going to get the first 1:20+ of PP time with the top snipers to pad his stats. Power has only his rookie and sophomore seasons to build enough of a case points-wise to get the massive payout and unless Dahlin is hurt or the Sabres decide to trade him (but why?), Power won't get that opportunity on this 2nd contract.

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Comparables as #1 pick are Ekblad (7 years, $7.5 million in 2016, 8.4 in today's $) and Dahlin (3 years, $6 million last summer.

Long-term recent deals to 2nd-contract young 1st-pairing defencemen range from Quinn Hughes at $7.8 to Zach Werenski at $10. That includes Chabot, Heiskanen, Fox, Makar and McAvoy.

Guys like Rasmus Anderson and Brandon Carlo were the ones getting $4.5 million.

Power will be eligible for an extension next summer and requiring one the summer after that.

So it still depends on how well he plays. If he develops as fast as some of those above he too will get his 10 million and term in a few years. If he doesn't and has ups and downs there might be a bridge deal or shorter term lesser dollar contract. We just don't know.

[sweetlou]

Sabres will most definitely sign Dahlin to a long term contract on or before summer of 24' and Power will only get a 2or 3 year bridge deal.  The Sabres already did Power a favor by letting him burn a year on his ELC by playing at the end of last year after going to school.

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3604051

[shrader]

13 hours ago, Doohickie said:

This is an old tweet but what the heck.

 

I don't know why, but I find it disturbing that a mascot is talking.

[dudacek]

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

So it still depends on how well he plays. If he develops as fast as some of those above he too will get his 10 million and term in a few years. If he doesn't and has ups and downs there might be a bridge deal or shorter term lesser dollar contract. We just don't know.

No we don’t, but the comparables are relevant and the window where a call is needed to be made is a maximum of just 2 years away.

The conversation started with a post about a $4 million deal, which would be on the extreme low end of the scale. I found 2 defencemen picked in top 10 in the past decade of drafts who signed for less than $4.8 million on their 2nd contact: Juolevi and Boqvist. Power is better than both of those guys already.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

No we don’t, but the comparables are relevant and the window where a call is needed to be made is a maximum of just 2 years away.

The conversation started with a post about a $4 million deal, which would be on the extreme low end of the scale. I found 2 defencemen picked in top 10 in the past decade of drafts who signed for less than $4.8 million on their 2nd contact: Juolevi and Boqvist. Power is better than both of those guys already.

I think, in time, Power will be better than Dahlin. How good he will actually be is hard to say. We may need a lot of money for those 2 to both stay Sabres, but that might be a nice thing to happen all the same. 

The price for big minute D men is definitely rising. Look at Tampa. They get slight discounts for tax reasons but Sergachev now makes more than Hedman. Hedman's a total bargain at 8 million by today's signings. 16 million for the two of them though. At this moment Power and Dahlin are not as good as those two obviously so paying them more than that would be ridiculous. 

Boston has total faith in McAvoy and locked him up at 9.5 which might be a bargain by the tail end of it. With Lindholm at 6.5 that's another top pairing at 16 million for the two of them. 

Colorado gave Makar 9 million. If Power is as good as Makar (wouldn't that be great!!!!) Maybe that's the true measuring point. Less or more than that depending on how he compares. I doubt they jump the gun though. They will play this out and only reward players after they are sure they have the real deal. 

[dudacek]

Hedman being dramatically underpaid today isn’t particularly relevant to contracts being signed next summer, seven years later.

Separately, IMO, Dahlin passed Sergachev last year.

To your point, it will be interesting to see who the Sabres decide to lock in with core piece contracts and when. I agree that Adams MO so far has been to push the decision back as far as possible.

He did it with Reinhart and Dahlin earlier and with Olofsson and apparently Tage as well this summer.

Edited August 24, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Hedman being dramatically underpaid today isn’t particularly relevant to contracts being signed next summer, seven years later.

Separately, IMO, Dahlin passed Sergachev last year.

To your point, it will be interesting to see who the Sabres decide to lock in with core piece contracts and when. I agree that Adams MO so far has been to push the decision back as far as possible.

He did it with Reinhart and Dahlin earlier and with Olofsson and apparently Tage as well this summer.

In fairness, both Dahlin & Reinhart were pushed down the road when ownership didn't know if they were wealthy but cash poor or just ridiculously wealthy.  Turned out to be the latter.

Personally, would like to have seen Olofsson get a longer deal, but thought that was a minority opinion.

As for Thompson, is he willing to go long term before playing out his contract year?  Takes 2 to tango and his actual future value might have the largest standard deviation of any player to ever wear B&G (including all of the Preds & Blues too).  Could see where he's confident enough in himself to not risk being relatively on as great a value contract as he currently is.

This next off-season will be our 1st opportunity to see if LT contracts are his post-1st round CHLers.  Doubt they are, but until they aren't, they may be.

[Brawndo]

 

[Eleven]

"Phil the Thrill"?  Is/was that a thing?  Nothing against the guy, mind you, especially with the way he trolled Toronto media, but is that a thing?

Edited August 25, 2022 by Eleven

[Thwomp!]

8 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

TIL (from article):

Kessel has appeared in 982 consecutive NHL contests, the longest active streak and seven games away from tying Keith Yandle's all-time record of 989. 

[Doohicksie]

39 minutes ago, Thwomp! said:

TIL (from article):

Kessel has appeared in 982 consecutive NHL contests, the longest active streak and seven games away from tying Keith Yandle's all-time record of 989. 

Bench him.

[DarthEbriate]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

Bench him.

That's not how Vegas works. LTIR him.