Do you sign Tage Thompson long-term this summer?

[Taro T]

Would say $6/6 yrs is the sweet spot between this having been a sustainable breakout year & it being a fluke of a perfect storm of circumstances.  Would even go $7/6yrs.

If he's what we hope he'll be the Sabres get another bargain deal from him and can figure out how to fit hit final contract into the mix after the cap is growing again.

If it was a fluke, the contract doesn't hurt at all the 1st 2 years & then is probably only $3MM worth of bad contract the rest of the way.  If that & Skinner's $2MM of overpay are their only bad deals, they're in great shape when it's time to sign all the rest of the current kids.  And if it isn't an overpay, if he is what we hope he'll be, his $3MM underpay those final 4 years will offset Skinner's overpay and they're in really great shape capwise & can pay most of the young guys what they're worth.

[dudacek]

I just read something on the NHL draft about how NHL execs value size, skating and the ability to play centre, and it made me think of this thread.

Forget Tage Thompson and everything you know about him.

Imagine it is the 1st day of free agency and the agent for a 24-year-old, 6’7” 225-pound centre calls and says his client really, really wants to live and play and raise a family in your less-than-glamorous city?

Imagine that this kid can skate, shoot and dangle and has already scored 38 goals in a single NHL season.

Is there a universe where you can imagine an NHL GM not being willing to give such a kid $6x6?

Let’s quit acting like we’re talking about Ville Leino here.

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I just read something on the NHL draft about how NHL execs value size, skating and the ability to play centre, and it made me think of this thread.

Forget Tage Thompson and everything you know about him.

Imagine it is the 1st day of free agency and the agent for a 24-year-old, 6’7” 225-pound centre calls and says his client really, really wants to live and play and raise a family in your less-than-glamorous city?

Imagine that this kid can skate, shoot and dangle and has already scored 38 goals in a single NHL season.

Is there a universe where you can imagine an NHL GM not being willing to give such a kid $6x6?

Let’s quit acting like we’re talking about Ville Leino here.

As you say, wants to be there.

He knows the organization traded a big piece for him, he has worked hard to develop and has become a key component of an emerging group of like minded individuals.

Using my Ben Stiller voice to say Do it, do it, do it!

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

As you say, wants to be there.

He knows the organization traded a big piece for him, he has worked hard to develop and has become a key component of an emerging group of like minded individuals.

Using my Ben Stiller voice to say Do it, do it, do it!

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Curt said:

Even if he signs a contract extension this offseason, it does not change his current contract.  He won’t cost any more in the 2022-23 season.

For example, if Tage signs a 6x6 contract extension this offseason, he will still be making $1.4M for the 2022-23 season.  Then his extension kicks in after that and is in effect for the 2023-24 through 2028-29 seasons.

That's true if it's an extension. I was thinking more along the lines of a renegotiation/extension. There are a number of ways this could play out. With the cap floor and all that I could see them looking at a renegotiation IF they were ready to extend but idk, these things can get complicated. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's true if it's an extension. I was thinking more along the lines of a renegotiation/extension. There are a number of ways this could play out. With the cap floor and all that I could see them looking at a renegotiation IF they were ready to extend but idk, these things can get complicated. 

Renegotiations arent allowed under the CBA

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Do you trust your GM? Your management and scouting staff?  If so I need to trust them to identify (with information none of us have) which players are worth long term deals now and not just waiting and waiting and paying them more later.

I want to take a chance at being a team like Colorado and Tampa (teams that had some of their stars locked up early to contract that in the long run were risky but paid off)....rather than being a team that is good enough to always compete for the playoffs but is never a top 5 team in the league.

That's a very good question. My answer would be not yet. Cautiously optimistic perhaps. Risto trade was good. Eichel trade looks good. Reinhart deal to be determined. Goaltender so far totally botched. FA signings pretty much non existent or irrelevant. A lot rides on what he does this year. The scouting definitely remains to be seen. Power was a no brainer. Have to see how the rest pan out. In 2-3 years you can judge them properly. 

I want the same things as you. Definitely want to raise the bar and be a contender. A real contender. Both those teams built through the draft first. Colorado moved out some big names to bring in multiple picks. If the Eichel trade works out as well for us as the Duchene trade worked for them we will fare well. Can't waste those Vegas picks though. We hit on them we will. Remember Tampa almost lost Stamkos to Toronto (or maybe Buffalo?) but it was great or lucky drafting that got them where they are. We need to land our own version of Pointe and so so forth. Dream of all teams I guess. 

But first, we need a goalie(s)!!!!!!!! 

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's true if it's an extension. I was thinking more along the lines of a renegotiation/extension. There are a number of ways this could play out. With the cap floor and all that I could see them looking at a renegotiation IF they were ready to extend but idk, these things can get complicated. 

Under the CBA, I don’t believe that there is any way to renegotiate a contract.  Once signed, contracts are what they are.  They can be voided under certain circumstances, but not renegotiated/altered.

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, JustOneParade said:

Great conversation here ladies and gents. If the Sabres aren't 90% sure (can never be 100%) of what Tage is going to be as a player I believe they should wait a year. Its all about risk assessment with their cap dollars.

Pay me now or pay me later. (The following numbers are for illustrative purposes only). Option 1: pay him now with a 6x$6M contract. He turns out to be an established $7.5M player for the life of the contract and it is a great value for the club. Or, this year was an anomaly and Tage is really a long term $3.5M player. Bad value for the club. Option 2: wait and pay him a year from now when you have a bit more certainty about the player Tage is. You've lessened the probability of a long above market contract. But you may now have to pay $7.5M when you could have had him for $6M a year prior. 

Given the makeup of the team and the contacts forthcoming in a couple years (and Skinner still on the books) I would wait and avoid an overvalued contract. If Tage turns out to be a $7.5M and you have to pay him as such I have no problem at all with that. There is more risk in an overvalue contract than a market value contract. The real life numbers here change the risk calculus, for sure.

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with your conclusion about the risk of giving Tage an overvalued contract. You have to look at the makeup of this team with an overload of young players who will command rich contracts when they negotiate their next contracts. Does anyone doubt that Dahlin, Power, Cozens and to a lesser extent maybe even Mitts will be in position to garner a dramatic increase in contracts? If you can get Tage on a lesser contract with early negotiations rather than a more costly contract with a later negotiation, then why wouldn't you? 

Tage's ability to play as a #1 center is known. For a full season he played as a #1 center whose stats, especially scoring goals, reflected the production of an upper tier player. According to his head coach, whose expertise is in developing young players, believes that as a player and #1 center he has more potential to draw from. My recommendation is to sign him to a generous contract with term sooner rather than later. I rather bet on him getting better than worry about him not becoming an established top tier player he has already demonstrated that he is capable of.  In this case timidity can be costly in $$$$.  

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

Under the CBA, I don’t believe that there is any way to renegotiate a contract.  Once signed, contracts are what they are.  They can be voided under certain circumstances, but not renegotiated/altered.

I could be wrong, but I thought you could renegotiate the final year of a deal if you were signing them to an extension. Maybe you can't any more, I'm no CBA expert. 

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I could be wrong, but I thought you could renegotiate the final year of a deal if you were signing them to an extension. Maybe you can't any more, I'm no CBA expert. 

No.  You can open negotiations on an expiring multiyear deal during that final year of the deal (typically after July 1, this year after July 13).

On a 1 year deal, you can negotiate an extension after January 1.

There are no renegotiations.

[nfreeman]

5 hours ago, JustOneParade said:

Great conversation here ladies and gents. If the Sabres aren't 90% sure (can never be 100%) of what Tage is going to be as a player I believe they should wait a year. Its all about risk assessment with their cap dollars.

Pay me now or pay me later. (The following numbers are for illustrative purposes only). Option 1: pay him now with a 6x$6M contract. He turns out to be an established $7.5M player for the life of the contract and it is a great value for the club. Or, this year was an anomaly and Tage is really a long term $3.5M player. Bad value for the club. Option 2: wait and pay him a year from now when you have a bit more certainty about the player Tage is. You've lessened the probability of a long above market contract. But you may now have to pay $7.5M when you could have had him for $6M a year prior. 

Given the makeup of the team and the contacts forthcoming in a couple years (and Skinner still on the books) I would wait and avoid an overvalued contract. If Tage turns out to be a $7.5M and you have to pay him as such I have no problem at all with that. There is more risk in an overvalue contract than a market value contract. The real life numbers here change the risk calculus, for sure.

Good analysis.  My one comment though is that is he repeats or improves on his production from last season he might be more of a $9MM guy than a $7.5MM guy.  

[Weave]

Just now, nfreeman said:

Good analysis.  My one comment though is that is he repeats or improves on his production from last season he might be more of a $9MM guy than a $7.5MM guy.  

Yup.  You have to trust your evaluation, and if your evaluation says its not a fluke you lock him down before his value goes higher.

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Good analysis.  My one comment though is that is he repeats or improves on his production from last season he might be more of a $9MM guy than a $7.5MM guy.  

It’s not might, it’s will.

He’s going to have arbitration rights and be one year away from UFA.

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by dudacek

[sweetlou]

If KA is looking to extend him this off season I give him the line of being competitive and having a bunch of team players.  I would sign him to a 6 year $5.5 million AAV contract. 

If he bets on himself and has another good year maybe he guest arbitration and gets awarded $7.5million.  Sabres would only have tossing him for one year.  This puts the pressure on the player to continue to improve to maintain current contract status.

If he bets on himself and has a down year because of a healthy Mitts, and having Quinn and JJP in line up, he may only get offered a contract around $4-$5million with a shorter term.

[sabremike]

GIVE TAGE ALL THE MONIES OR ELSE!!!!!!!!!

[Porous Five Hole]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

It’s not might, it’s will.

He’s going to have arbitration rights and be one year away from UFA.

 

And there’s the rub. Guy has been playing on a well below market contact. The team needs to buy out his RFA year and reward him as if he’s a UFA. I voted for 6X6, but that feels like a discount if you can pencil in 30 goals from the center position. 

My opinion is the Sabres know what they have and they will go long term with TT. But it might take 7M and a wing and a prayer (of a repeat performance each future year) on the Sabres part.  

[Zamboni]

Good god the Giraffe crap is tired. Yawn.

 

TNT is ….

 

[JustOneParade]

My point was that if the Sabres aren't sure about Tage then it might be prudent to wait. What we all think really doesn't matter. AFTR, I agree with those who believe we're seeing the developed Tage and this past season wasn't an anomaly.

Since my last post I'm recalling hearing Granato saying TT 'has more to give' and 'will get even better'. Clear evidence of how the organization views Tage, I would think. DG doesn't appear to be the kind of guy to blow smoke. If that's their view, signing him to an extension/new contract this summer is the right thing to do for all the reasons you guys have written. It's just to bad that given the Sabres cap outlook the contract can't be front loaded (?) like an NFL contract can.

[tom webster]

24 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

My point was that if the Sabres aren't sure about Tage then it might be prudent to wait. What we all think really doesn't matter. AFTR, I agree with those who believe we're seeing the developed Tage and this past season wasn't an anomaly.

Since my last post I'm recalling hearing Granato saying TT 'has more to give' and 'will get even better'. Clear evidence of how the organization views Tage, I would think. DG doesn't appear to be the kind of guy to blow smoke. If that's their view, signing him to an extension/new contract this summer is the right thing to do for all the reasons you guys have written. It's just to bad that given the Sabres cap outlook the contract can't be front loaded (?) like an NFL contract can.

NFL Contracts are almost always “back” loaded with huge bonuses paid early. The NHL can do the same within certain parameters.

The difference is that in the NFL, the cap has a different value every year of contract, almost always lower to absurd, while the NHL total contract value is weighted evenly over the term of the contract.

What the Sabres need to assess is what’s Tage’s floor, try and get him to bite on a contract that takes that risk into account, and hope he plays closer to his ceiling. Ultimately it’s up to him and his agent and how much he’s willing to bet on himself. Anyone thinking he’s going to sign for less than $7M per is kidding themselves. I feel like Don Quixote but I’m telling you, the cap is going to approach $100M sooner than you think.

[tom webster]

One other thing, while analytics has improved this a little, player evaluation is not an exact science. The Sabres got Hasek for almost nothing, than exposed him to an expansion draft before being forced to play him due to injury.

Pominville was exposed to waivers before becoming a 30 goal scorer.

[JustOneParade]

5 hours ago, tom webster said:

NFL Contracts are almost always “back” loaded with huge bonuses paid early. The NHL can do the same within certain parameters.

The difference is that in the NFL, the cap has a different value every year of contract, almost always lower to absurd, while the NHL total contract value is weighted evenly over the term of the contract.

What the Sabres need to assess is what’s Tage’s floor, try and get him to bite on a contract that takes that risk into account, and hope he plays closer to his ceiling. Ultimately it’s up to him and his agent and how much he’s willing to bet on himself. Anyone thinking he’s going to sign for less than $7M per is kidding themselves. I feel like Don Quixote but I’m telling you, the cap is going to approach $100M sooner than you think.

Thanks TW. I understand the backloading of NFL contracts. Seems some team with $5m of cap space is always trying add a $10m aav contract. Just thinking the Sabres could take advantage of the space the team will have for a couple years.

I have little familiarity of how NHL contracts work. I think I understand what you are saying. So if the team signs signs TT to 5 years $35m total and the team pays him 10, 10, 5, 5 and 5, the first year for cap purposes is still $7m regardless? Do I have that right? And that's ignoring what must me many nuances.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Thanks TW. I understand the backloading of NFL contracts. Seems some team with $5m of cap space is always trying add a $10m aav contract. Just thinking the Sabres could take advantage of the space the team will have for a couple years.

I have little familiarity of how NHL contracts work. I think I understand what you are saying. So if the team signs signs TT to 5 years $35m total and the team pays him 10, 10, 5, 5 and 5, the first year for cap purposes is still $7m regardless? Do I have that right? And that's ignoring what must me many nuances.

Yes, with very rare exceptions, the annual cap hit of a player is the total $'s to be paid out over the life of the contract divided by the term (in years).  So, a 5 year contract w/ $35MM paid out has a cap hit of $7MM per year.  A contract w/ $10MM paid out over 2 years would have a $5MM cap hit per year.

And because the cap hit is calculated by total $'s/ # of years and is nearly always constant over the life of the contract, there is no renegotiating of contracts.

[Cheektorado]

$6M/6Years is about right for me.  Tage needs to be in the core of the team.  He is skilled/enthusiastic, and I don't see that contract being an overpay.  It also shows the rest of the young guys that they pay for good play.  You have to take a risk sometime and I think Tage is a good bet.

[LabattBlue]

On 6/25/2022 at 11:08 PM, sabremike said:

GIVE TAGE ALL THE MONIES OR ELSE!!!!!!!!!

Give it a rest.  It was bad enough mocking him when struggling.  Now it’s just idiotic. 👎🏻

Edited June 27, 2022 by LabattBlue