Do you sign Tage Thompson long-term this summer?

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Fantastic post.

A better question in the opening post might have been “do you think Tage Thompson is a 60-70 point scorer, for real?”

Because if he is and you wait, all of those long-term deals are bargains, and you’ve walked him to the same place you walked Sam Reinhart: a chance at arbitration and to walk on a one-and-gone deal.

 

 

But you also don't want to walk to the same place you walked with Jeff Skinner. You can start talks mid season if he's doing it again, but he hasn't proven anything yet imo. 

[Weave]

34 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

But you also don't want to walk to the same place you walked with Jeff Skinner. You can start talks mid season if he's doing it again, but he hasn't proven anything yet imo. 

It really comes down to risk tolerance. And there is a price for waiting.

If you play it safe and wait to see if the performance repeats it will surely cost you more.

If you make a projection and your experts believe that projection is the most likely scenario you get that contract done sooner, and likely at a better value.

Waiting until mid way through the season gives TT more leverage.  If you trust your evaluation you have to ride with it.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Weave

[thewookie1]

My entire stance would be based on his ask.

Anything over 6mil I’d want to see him continue his play into next year. I’d even offer him 7x7 if he can put up at least 25 pts in the 1st 25 games next year. But I need more proof of 1C play before I pay him 1C money. 
 

At this time I’d likely offer 5 years 5 mil or something akin to that. 2C numbers effectively 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

My entire stance would be based on his ask.

Anything over 6mil I’d want to see him continue his play into next year. I’d even offer him 7x7 if he can put up at least 25 pts in the 1st 25 games next year. But I need more proof of 1C play before I pay him 1C money. 
 

At this time I’d likely offer 5 years 5 mil or something akin to that. 2C numbers effectively 

Would you take 5X5 if you were Thompson? I wouldn't.

I should still get that next summer even if I only put up 50 points this year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm in the no column. Can he do it again is important. 

William Karlsson is a great case in point on his this can work the wrong way as well.  LV signed him to a 5.9  for 8 years.  He had his huge year at 25 (43g 35a) with a 23.4 shooting %.  The following season he was solid (24g 32a) with a 14.2 shooting %.  LV gave him the big contract after that second season.  His last three have been 46 pts (10.9 shooting), 39 pts (12.6 shooting) and 35 pts (8.9 shooting).  I'm not enamored with the idea of paying 5.9 for 5 more years for a guy scoring 35 pts.  The two year prior to his breakout 20 pts (8.3 % shooting) and 25 pts (6.3% shooting).  He was also only playing 13 minutes a night with CBJ before expansion and jumped to 18:30+ with LV in his breakout year.

While I will agree that Tage is probably going to be a better player than Karlsson long-term, his explosion is coming from a very similar place.  

Both are decently talented guys who got thrust into the limelight having played a secondary role prior to breakout.  Karlsson got his opportunity on an expansion team and Tage on a team with nothing to lose.  Tage's shooting % in the seasons prior to his breakout were very similar to Karlsson's at 6.5 and 8.3.  His breakout comes with a 15% shooting % which is also unlikely sustainable.  Like Karlsson, Tage played less then 14 minutes a night and then last season played nearly 18.  

I'd wait and see.  No harm getting the conversation started, but doing a 8 year deal like LV did seems excessive.

Edited June 24, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

When I watched Tage Thompson play last year he showed a lot more skill than I have ever seen from William Karlsson.

And for me, I think that's the kicker: I believe in the player I watched this year, not his stat line.

Edited June 25, 2022 by dudacek

[RangerDave]

I'm not an expert with stats or contracts.  However, I feel like Tage is right on schedule in his development and has earned a contract at least equal to a Top 50 NHL forward.  He may regress; he may get better.  That is the nature of professional sports.  Signing him now to a 5-6 year contract is likely to be a bargain for the team.  Even if it is not, I don't think $7m/year is likely to be a drag on the team.  We have lots of cap room now and I don't see us getting into a bind in the next 6 years unless we go crazy in free agency.  My guess is that in 6 years, he is going to command a much larger salary.  Plus, it is good team chemistry to reward good team players.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

When I watched Tage Thompson play last year he showed a lot more skill than I have ever seen from Erik Karlsson.

And for me, I think that's the kicker: I believe in the player I watched this year, not his stat line.

I come to the same conclusion based on this year, but Karlsson's breakout year felt much like Tage's season, aka they could do no wrong.  

As I noted before, I believe Tage is a better player than Karlsson, however there is a very reasonable concern that he'll revert to his base line.  Eichel, Hall and many others returned to their baseline following breakout season.  The only guy that seems to continue to get better is high hockey IQ Sam Reinhart.

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I come to the same conclusion based on this year, but Karlsson's breakout year felt much like Tage's season, aka they could do no wrong.  

As I noted before, I believe Tage is a better player than Karlsson, however there is a very reasonable concern that he'll revert to his base line.  Eichel, Hall and many others returned to their baseline following breakout season.  The only guy that seems to continue to get better is high hockey IQ Sam Reinhart.

Who was the coach those two players played for? Under the coach that Granato took over for the performances for most of the players under his guidance declined. Tage had a breakout year under Granato when he was moved to center. Under Granato's tutelage Tage will get even better. The sooner Tage secures an extended contract the better value the organization will get. Wait now and pay later the company ends up paying more. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Who was the coach those two players played for? Under the coach that Granato took over for the performances for most of the players under his guidance declined. Tage had a breakout year under Granato when he was moved to center. Under Granato's tutelage Tage will get even better. The sooner Tage secures an extended contract the better value the organization will get. Wait now and pay later the company ends up paying more. 

Hall sucked before he got to the Sabres.  RK didn’t destroy Hall other then continuing a trend that had already begun.  Hall’s shooting % in a 6 seasons in Edm was 10.6.  In his first NJ season it was 8.4.  Then came his breakout MVP year at 14%.  Since then he has gone 9.7, 8.1, 7.4 and 9.2. 

Eichel also had his career year during RK’s tenure.  He was a 10% shooter his first 4 years in Buffalo, then had a 15.9% season and then guess what, he came back from his injury and was a 10% shooter for LV. 

RK sucked, but these guys are 9-10% shooters outside of their breakout campaigns.  Until Tage proves last year wasn’t just a career year, the prudent thing to do is wait and see.

It’s funny, but this rush to re-sign Tage feels much like the posts to re-sign Skinner at any cost. How has that worked out so far? 

Edited June 25, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[K-9]

6 hours ago, JohnC said:

Expecting TT to be in the 50 goal range is overly high. (Obviously, I prefer your lofty expectations to be more correct than my less lofty expectations.) If Tage is centering a ling where he is scoring 30 to 35 goals, Skinner hovering around 30 and Tuch in the 20 to 25 goal range, that would comprise a top tier first line. I'll take those combined numbers and walk away with satisfied shiiit grin. 

A while back on WGR Granato was asked about Tage and what was his upside. The coach said that he hasn't come close to tapping his passing and assist potential. And he stated that as well as he has played this year he believed that he had more potential to draw from in being a well rounded hockey player. 

My recommendation would be to lock him up with a long-term contract sooner rather than later. The pay scale usually doesn't go down. And if Granato is right in his assessment of this tall player, it would make financial sense for the organization to get a deal done sooner rather than later. 

I disagree. If anything, I under estimated TT’s output for next season. 

[msw2112]

53 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Hall sucked before he got to the Sabres.  RK didn’t destroy Hall other then continuing a trend that had already begun.  Hall’s shooting % in a 6 seasons in Edm was 10.6.  In his first NJ season it was 8.4.  Then came his breakout MVP year at 14%.  Since then he has gone 9.7, 8.1, 7.4 and 9.2. 

Eichel also had his career year during RK’s tenure.  He was a 10% shooter his first 4 years in Buffalo, then had a 15.9% season and then guess what, he came back from his injury and was a 10% shooter for LV. 

RK sucked, but these guys are 9-10% shooters outside of their breakout campaigns.  Until Tage proves last year wasn’t just a career year, the prudent thing to do is wait and see.

It’s funny, but this rush to re-sign Tage feels much like the posts to re-sign Skinner at any cost. How has that worked out so far? 

Skinner was terrible under RK, but has bounced back and played very good hockey last year.  $9M hockey, no, but still very good play.  If he contiues to play this way for the next few seasons, his contract may turn out to be an overpay, but not a the gross overpay/albatross that it looked like in the RK years.  Same can be said for Okposo, although he's nearing the end of his deal.

When Skinner was re-signed by the Sabres, he was a UFA.  He held all the cards.  With Thompson now, he is not a UFA, so the Sabres have the ability to work out a resonable longer term deal now while Thompson is still under contract.  If they wait it out and he continues to perform well, Thompson will hold all the cards.  Yes, there is risk if they sign him to a big deal and his play falls off, but it looks like he is a young talented player that has progressed and will continue to improve.  Keep in mind that he was a first round pick for a reason, he has tremendous size (which can't be taught and which won't go away), and clearly has high end skill.  He's moved to a new position, where he has excelled.  Also, if you look at the careers of other really tall guys (Chara, for example), they started slow, took time to grow into their bodies, and then be came great players for a long time.  I see more of that in Thomspon than I see Tyler Myers or Adam Creighton (for the more senior membres of the board).  So I would vote in favor of signing Thompson to a new deal sooner than later.

Edited June 25, 2022 by msw2112

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

Skinner was terrible under RK, but has bounced back and played very good hockey last year.  $9M hockey, no, but still very good play.  If he contiues to play this way for the next few seasons, his contract may turn out to be an overpay, but not a the gross overpay/albatross that it looked like in the RK years.  Same can be said for Okposo, although he's nearing the end of his deal.

When Skinner was re-signed by the Sabres, he was a UFA.  He held all the cards.  With Thompson now, he is not a UFA, so the Sabres have the ability to work out a resonable longer term deal now while Thompson is still under contract.  If they wait it out and he continues to perform well, Thompson will hold all the cards.  Yes, there is risk if they sign him to a big deal and his play falls off, but it looks like he is a young talented player that has progressed and will continue to improve.  Keep in mind that he was a first round pick for a reason, he has tremendous size (which can't be taught and which won't go away), and clearly has high end skill.  He's moved to a new position, where he has excelled.  Also, if you look at the careers of other really tall guys (Chara, for example), they started slow, took time to grow into their bodies, and then be came great players for a long time.  I see more of that in Thomspon than I see Tyler Myers or Adam Creighton (for the more senior membres of the board).  So I would vote in favor of signing Thompson to a new deal sooner than later.

No he won’t.  He’ll still be a an RFA.

[msw2112]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No he won’t.  He’ll still be a an RFA.

I wasn't specifically referring to the end of next season or any particular date.  I was simply referring to the time when his contract runs out, at which time he will be a UFA.  I am in favor of the Sabres getting out ahead of that date, whether it be 1 or 2 years out.  That said, when he's a RFA, he will hold some cards and the team will hold fewer, so it behooves them to get out ahead of his RFA status too.

Edited June 25, 2022 by msw2112

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

I disagree. If anything, I under estimated TT’s output for next season. 

I would love for you to be right. But I'm not bold enough to go to the casino and lay some Dineros on that bet. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Hall sucked before he got to the Sabres.  RK didn’t destroy Hall other then continuing a trend that had already begun.  Hall’s shooting % in a 6 seasons in Edm was 10.6.  In his first NJ season it was 8.4.  Then came his breakout MVP year at 14%.  Since then he has gone 9.7, 8.1, 7.4 and 9.2. 

Eichel also had his career year during RK’s tenure.  He was a 10% shooter his first 4 years in Buffalo, then had a 15.9% season and then guess what, he came back from his injury and was a 10% shooter for LV. 

RK sucked, but these guys are 9-10% shooters outside of their breakout campaigns.  Until Tage proves last year wasn’t just a career year, the prudent thing to do is wait and see.

It’s funny, but this rush to re-sign Tage feels much like the posts to re-sign Skinner at any cost. How has that worked out so far? 

Although Skinner is over paid if he keeps up at the same production level that he had last year, I'm not complaining. If Tage has the same production rate that he had last year, I would be for him to be given an extended contract sooner rather than later. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Although Skinner is over paid if he keeps up at the same production level that he had last year, I'm not complaining. If Tage has the same production rate that he had last year, I would be for him to be given an extended contract sooner rather than later. 

That’s the big question isn’t.  Until we see him do it again he has no track record of being a consistently effective NHL player.

On his first 145 NHL games Tage had 18g 17a or 35 pts

Last season in 78 games he scored 38 goals.  
 

Now compare that to Olofsson, who has two 20 goal seasons in his 3 NHL seasons, yet people are trying to send him packing and re-sign Thompson for big money.  I don’t get it.

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, Weave said:

It really comes down to risk tolerance. And there is a price for waiting.

If you play it safe and wait to see if the performance repeats it will surely cost you more.

If you make a projection and your experts believe that projection is the most likely scenario you get that contract done sooner, and likely at a better value.

Waiting until mid way through the season gives TT more leverage.  If you trust your evaluation you have to ride with it.

There's a price here for waiting in terms of salary cap but not really in the eyes of ownership. You're saving 5 million or something on next year's salary remember so if you have to pay him an extra million a year over 5 years you're kind of even. idk, they will decide, but I imagine ownership will not hand out big contracts easily or quickly at this point. 

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I come to the same conclusion based on this year, but Karlsson's breakout year felt much like Tage's season, aka they could do no wrong.  

As I noted before, I believe Tage is a better player than Karlsson, however there is a very reasonable concern that he'll revert to his base line.  Eichel, Hall and many others returned to their baseline following breakout season.  The only guy that seems to continue to get better is high hockey IQ Sam Reinhart.

You said it yourself: Tage only played 145 games prior to this year.

After 145 games, Eichel established his baseline, he didn’t regress to it. He improved for following 3 consecutive seasons. Breakout Hall came five years after he played 145 games.

Tage can’t regress to a baseline when he hasn’t yet established it.

[Curt]

17 hours ago, matter2003 said:

They have massive cap space so that shouldn't be an issue

It will become an issue 2-3 years from now when all of Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Thompson, Cozens, Mitts, Krebs, Quinn, Peterka need new, more expensive contracts.

[Curt]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

There's a price here for waiting in terms of salary cap but not really in the eyes of ownership. You're saving 5 million or something on next year's salary remember so if you have to pay him an extra million a year over 5 years you're kind of even. idk, they will decide, but I imagine ownership will not hand out big contracts easily or quickly at this point. 

Even if he signs a contract extension this offseason, it does not change his current contract.  He won’t cost any more in the 2022-23 season.

For example, if Tage signs a 6x6 contract extension this offseason, he will still be making $1.4M for the 2022-23 season.  Then his extension kicks in after that and is in effect for the 2023-24 through 2028-29 seasons.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

You said it yourself: Tage only played 145 games prior to this year.

After 145 games, Eichel established his baseline, he didn’t regress to it. He improved for following 3 consecutive seasons. Breakout Hall came five years after he played 145 games.

Tage can’t regress to a baseline when he hasn’t yet established it.

Eichel really didn’t.  His shooting % was  basically the same his first 4 seasons and again in LV, around 10%.  His only season better was his 15.9.  

My concern with Tage is that he was a 8% shooter prior to last season.  If he can show he can repeat his effective shooting then sure give him a deal.  However I’m not giving him a new deal until he shows he has actually taken his game to a new level.

Compare these guys to Reinhart.  His baseline is about 13% and he goes that or better every season.   The one guy we should have given a long term deal we didn’t. 

JT Miller is similar to Reinhart.  His baseline is 14 and he does that or better every year.

Why am I focused on shooting %?  It seems to be a great indicator of whether  a goal scorer is a consistent threat or just a one year wonder.  No idea where Tage falls yet so I’d rather be patient before giving him a longterm deal.  

Edited June 25, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[mjd1001]

17 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

But you also don't want to walk to the same place you walked with Jeff Skinner. You can start talks mid season if he's doing it again, but he hasn't proven anything yet imo. 

I see your point and I understand your point. I really do.  The 'common sense' approach is to wait to verify as long as possible the player you are getting.  Do that with everyone, your chance of handing out bad contracts goes down.  In the long run with no 'bad' contracts you can have a 'good team'.

But there is the problem.  In todays NHL, you can win with no 'bad' contracts, but if you want to be a serious cup contender year after year, that isn't enough. You have to have 'good' or 'great' contracts on some key guys.  You don't get that until/unless you are willing to give them a 'little' more now so you don't have to give them a 'lot' more later.

Do you trust your GM? Your management and scouting staff?  If so I need to trust them to identify (with information none of us have) which players are worth long term deals now and not just waiting and waiting and paying them more later.

I want to take a chance at being a team like Colorado and Tampa (teams that had some of their stars locked up early to contract that in the long run were risky but paid off)....rather than being a team that is good enough to always compete for the playoffs but is never a top 5 team in the league.

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s the big question isn’t.  Until we see him do it again he has no track record of being a consistently effective NHL player.

On his first 145 NHL games Tage had 18g 17a or 35 pts

Last season in 78 games he scored 38 goals.  
 

Now compare that to Olofsson, who has two 20 goal seasons in his 3 NHL seasons, yet people are trying to send him packing and re-sign Thompson for big money.  I don’t get it.

 

 

You historically have been one of the strongest advocates for trading Olofsson. How many trade scenarios have you proposed with him included in a deal? However, I acknowledge that it has recently changed. I have consistently argued in keeping him if a reasonable contract deal can be worked out. 

You are allowing aggregated stats to distort his recent stats. Tage made a major turn-around after the astute Italian coach moved him to center. In addition, it took Tage a few years for him to physically mature and fill out. Where he is now as a player in contrast to his earlier development stage is how he should be judged and projected as a player. And based on his quantum leap forward as a player, I would invest in him sooner with an extended contract rather than wait longer when the cost will climb even more. If you are waiting until you are absolutely sure about what caliber of player he will be, you are betting against the player and giving him leverage in his next negotiation. 

You are getting too entangled with his cumulative stats and allowing the distorted aggregate number to come to your conclusion. His play was on display for a full season. Trust your eyes! He centered a #1 line that was worthy of being considered a legitimate good #1 NHL line. You have a player in your system who is producing. There is no need to look outward. My recommendation is to pay him sooner and lock him up so that you can move on to address other areas of need, especially the goalie position.  

 

[JustOneParade]

Great conversation here ladies and gents. If the Sabres aren't 90% sure (can never be 100%) of what Tage is going to be as a player I believe they should wait a year. Its all about risk assessment with their cap dollars.

Pay me now or pay me later. (The following numbers are for illustrative purposes only). Option 1: pay him now with a 6x$6M contract. He turns out to be an established $7.5M player for the life of the contract and it is a great value for the club. Or, this year was an anomaly and Tage is really a long term $3.5M player. Bad value for the club. Option 2: wait and pay him a year from now when you have a bit more certainty about the player Tage is. You've lessened the probability of a long above market contract. But you may now have to pay $7.5M when you could have had him for $6M a year prior. 

Given the makeup of the team and the contacts forthcoming in a couple years (and Skinner still on the books) I would wait and avoid an overvalued contract. If Tage turns out to be a $7.5M and you have to pay him as such I have no problem at all with that. There is more risk in an overvalue contract than a market value contract. The real life numbers here change the risk calculus, for sure.