Do you sign Tage Thompson long-term this summer?

[dudacek]

Tage Thompson just finished 19th in the NHL in goals and 56th in points.

He is eligible for a contract extension on July 13. Would you offer him one and how high would you go?

(For reference the 20th highest paid NHL forward made $9 million last year, the 50th made $6.9 and the 100th $5.2)

Edited June 24, 2022 by dudacek

[SwampD]

Why are you making us do math?

[Wyldnwoody44]

6 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Why are you making us do math?

[ubkev]

Sign them as young as possible for as long and cheap as possible. The longer you wait, the more it costs you. 

[PerreaultForever]

One year does not a career make. 

[Huckleberry]

I would offer him 6x6 and hope its cheap in 2 years 🙂

[mjd1001]

Yes, I try to.  However I can get him done in anywhere from a 4-8 year deal...whatever of those options he is willing to take to keep the average annual cost down.  If he will take a little less money to go long term, I do it.

If you want to be a 'good team', then you make sure you have no bad contracts. In that case you wait to see how he does, and when his deal is up you pay him a 'market contract' deal.  That will make you good.

You want to be a GREAT team, you need to have some star players making under market value when you are making a run to the cup. You have to take chances.  You give guys a long term deal possibly 'overpaying' them earlier in the deal, so that later in the deal when you are competing for a cup they are getting under market deals.  That is why you hope the Sabres are really, REALLY good (better than us) at identifying whether Tage's season last year is for real, and if it is giving him a very long term deal that may look like an over-pay now but might not be in 3-4 years.

For all the angst some are having on this forum about the lack of moves and wanting the Sabres to 'do something.....the thing I personally want them to do is identify who of this young 'core' is for real, and hit the hard now with long term deals.  They will be good-great when they can lock up players earlier than we are all comfortable with to long term deals and be correct about it.

Edited June 24, 2022 by mjd1001

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Yes, I try to.  However I can get him done in anywhere from a 4-8 year deal...whatever of those options he is willing to take to keep the average annual cost down.  If he will take a little less money to go long term, I do it.

If you want to be a 'good team', then you make sure you have no bad contracts. In that case you wait to see how he does, and when his deal is up you pay him a 'market contract' deal.  That will make you good.

You want to be a GREAT team, you need to have some star players making under market value when you are making a run to the cup. You have to take chances.  You give guys a long term deal possibly 'overpaying' them earlier in the deal, so that later in the deal when you are competing for a cup they are getting under market deals.  That is why you hope the Sabres are really, REALLY good (better than us) at identifying whether Tage's season last year is for real, and if it is giving him a very long term deal that may look like an over-pay now but might not be in 3-4 years.

For all the angst some are having on this forum about the lack of moves and wanting the Sabres to 'do something.....the thing I personally want them to do is identify who of this young 'core' is for real, and hit the hard now with long term deals.  They will be good-great when they can lock up players earlier than we are all comfortable with to long term deals and be correct about it.

Fantastic post.

A better question in the opening post might have been “do you think Tage Thompson is a 60-70 point scorer, for real?”

Because if he is and you wait, all of those long-term deals are bargains, and you’ve walked him to the same place you walked Sam Reinhart: a chance at arbitration and to walk on a one-and-gone deal.

 

 

[Eleven]

I'm ok with 6M / yr now if he agrees to 7 years.  Otherwise I think a couple/few years at 5M (I don't see him agreeing to 5 x 5).  Remember, this team is going to need a lot of cap room in the not-too-distant future.

[dudacek]

Here’s an interesting stat about Tage I haven’t seen discussed much: he got better as the year went on.

From Feb. 1 (a point by which he was firmly entrenched as the team’s #1 centre and facing opponents’ top defenders) he scored 24 goals and 39 points in 38 games.

[mjd1001]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Here’s an interesting stat about Tage I haven’t seen discussed much: he got better as the year went on.

From Feb. 1 (a point by which he was firmly entrenched as the team’s #1 centre and facing opponents’ top defenders) he scored 24 goals and 39 points in 38 games.

Maybe it took him a while to 'get used' to the Center position?  If that is so, it bodes well for next year when he will have that year under his belt.

So based on the numbers you quoted, that means he played 40 games before Feb 1 and had 14 goals and 29 points in that time (29 goal, 59 point pace), After Feb 1, his pace was 52 goal, 84 point.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Here’s an interesting stat about Tage I haven’t seen discussed much: he got better as the year went on.

From Feb. 1 (a point by which he was firmly entrenched as the team’s #1 centre and facing opponents’ top defenders) he scored 24 goals and 39 points in 38 games.

That is a major reason I wouldn't hesitate to go 7years/$50M with Tage.   He was given the opportunity, seized it, outperformed everyone's expectations, and still hasn't reached his max potential.  There just aren't a lot of giant centers in the league that can play 1st line minutes, have those silky smooth hands, can score 40, and also appear to be a good guy in the locker room.  

I think he only gets more expensive as the season goes on, assuming he stays healthy.

Edited June 24, 2022 by SHAAAUGHT!!!

[matter2003]

9 hours ago, ubkev said:

Sign them as young as possible for as long and cheap as possible. The longer you wait, the more it costs you. 

They have massive cap space so that shouldn't be an issue

[That Aud Smell]

Such an interesting case study.

And I wonder if Tage would resist a push to get him signed for 6 or 7 years. Maybe he wants the Reinhart route - sign a short(er) deal for potentially a small discount on his AAV. Bet on himself.

If he's open to a longer-term deal, I think an annual number in a ~$6.5M range would be fair for both sides.

[Weave]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Here’s an interesting stat about Tage I haven’t seen discussed much: he got better as the year went on.

From Feb. 1 (a point by which he was firmly entrenched as the team’s #1 centre and facing opponents’ top defenders) he scored 24 goals and 39 points in 38 games.

Doesn’t that pretty much coincide with Tuch’s entry into the lineup?

Edited June 24, 2022 by Weave

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Weave said:

Doesn’t that pretty much coincide with Tuch’s entry into the lineup?

Not exactly. Tuch arrived in late December.

December, however, was Tage’s worst month, so he did perk up when Tuch arrived.

On the other hand, Tuch slumped down the stretch -16 points in his final 28 games - while Thompson continued to thrive.

[dudacek]

Another interesting thing to consider is Thompson's shooting percentage, which leapt from 8.3 to 15.0.

An easy conclusion is that he got lucky: pucks were just going in for him and that percentage is unsustainable.

I buy that to a degree, but not entirely.

All of us are familiar with the pre-Granato Thompson: big windups and ill-considered toe-drags to 'improve' his shooting position.

With the Granato Thompson, it was on the stick and off before the goalies could get set.

So while I do think some regression is likely, I also think there has been a fundamental shift in how Thompson was shooting that leads me to believe more than just luck was at play.

The actual mechanics of his shot — the power, quickness and accuracy - are those of a legitimate goal scorer.

Edited June 24, 2022 by dudacek

[Buffalonill]

I'm not a bills fan (  And totally different sport) but I thought his breakout year was a fluke he proved everyone wrong 

I have a feeling tage thompson does the same .

 

 Something in the Buffalo water that's making these athletes superhuman ha

Edited June 24, 2022 by Buffalonill

[DarthEbriate]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not exactly. Tuch arrived in late December.

December, however, was Tage’s worst month, so he did perk up when Tuch arrived.

On the other hand, Tuch slumped down the stretch -16 points in his final 28 games - while Thompson continued to thrive.

It's likely more tied to Olofsson's injury and eventual demotion than to Tuch.

Thompson and Olofsson started the year on fire. Then, VO was hurt and found his way down the lineup. Tuch gave Tage a bump mid-year, but then was better placed lower in the lineup after VO/Mitts had their re-health-ifying together. In April, VO and Tager were reunited and both finished very strong.

[GoPuckYourself]

I'd wait to see if it was a fluke or not, it was his best season by far. If he does the same or better then we will have plenty to pay him. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Last year he earned an extension that is also team friendly since it was his breakout year.

5 years x $5M is what I would offer him.  The max I would do is 6 years x $6M.

That way the Sabres have some future flexibilty on the cap while having a good to better than good player under contarct for 6 or 7 years.

I think that in 2 years either of those contracts will be a bargain.  I do not want Tage, or any other good player, Samsoned.  What a mess that situation was.  What a disaster.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Sabres Fan in NS
had to filter myself there ... goodly !!

[K-9]

TT will threaten the 50 goal mark next season. Sign the man now for as long as you can and laugh when his deal looks like a steal soon after the ink dries. 

[SABRES 0311]

I picked 6x6. Glad I was wrong about TT and he took a big step forward this year. I figure 6x6 is a good pay increase and if necessary something we can offload if he’s a flash in the pan.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

TT will threaten the 50 goal mark next season. Sign the man now for as long as you can and laugh when his deal looks like a steal soon after the ink dries. 

Expecting TT to be in the 50 goal range is overly high. (Obviously, I prefer your lofty expectations to be more correct than my less lofty expectations.) If Tage is centering a ling where he is scoring 30 to 35 goals, Skinner hovering around 30 and Tuch in the 20 to 25 goal range, that would comprise a top tier first line. I'll take those combined numbers and walk away with satisfied shiiit grin. 

A while back on WGR Granato was asked about Tage and what was his upside. The coach said that he hasn't come close to tapping his passing and assist potential. And he stated that as well as he has played this year he believed that he had more potential to draw from in being a well rounded hockey player. 

My recommendation would be to lock him up with a long-term contract sooner rather than later. The pay scale usually doesn't go down. And if Granato is right in his assessment of this tall player, it would make financial sense for the organization to get a deal done sooner rather than later. 

[JoeSchmoe]