NHL Trade Rumors and Speculation 2022-23

[shrader]

19 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

Agreed. That's why I said there hasn't been any official number. Technically the closest to an 'officially' number is $7m as referenced by the Dallas Stars owner, Gaglardi, when he was complaining about handing out big contracts on expiring ELCs. People already posted the quote, but it's worth adding the whole quote because the last bit that's always left out is pretty important.

"A kid in the third year of his entry-level (deal) puts up 40 goals and now he wants to make $7 million," he said. "If you want term with that player, he's going to take you higher than that. … The stars are taking all the money, and the guys in the middle are getting squeezed."He added, "I think there's a lot of players in the league making a million dollars who are better players, and then the guys who can put the puck in the net are getting too big a piece of the pie. … I don't like it, but that's the market, and that's the way it works."

Is Ottawa single-handedly responsible for those comps?

[RochesterExpat]

8 minutes ago, shrader said:

Is Ottawa single-handedly responsible for those comps?

I think this is largely true. Norris (8x$7.95m) certainly is since he's the same draft year/age at signing, Stutzle (8x$8.350) because similar projections, and even Tkachuk's (7x$8.14m) contract from last year are decent comps.

I think the other big contract to add as a comp is Robert Thomas with St Louis. Robertson is 20 days younger and scored two more points in two more games. Both play right wing. Robertson scored 41 goals to Thomas' 20 goals. Thomas signed an 8x$8.125m in July. I'd argue Robertson goes a bit higher than that because of his goal scoring, but it's a good comp to add to the mix. Thomas also had better line mates, but that's a different story.

The funny bit is Dallas media is using Tage Thompson's contract as the floor. Thompson is 2 years older and had fewer points so I'm quite certain it's a floor, but I don't think it's the floor. I think if Norris/Stutzle are comps then, arguably, they're the floor seeing as how Robertson has the better stats. It is what it is.

Dallas messed up by waiting on the extension. They let other teams drive the value up. I'd say 4 months ago people would have thought $7m was the ceiling because the flat cap. We now all but officially know that the cap is going to take some big jumps in 24 and 25. Teams want to lock in players to term now so the cap hit % is lower in the future. It blows my mind that Dallas isn't willing to offer him 8x$8.5m. I'm also surprised Robertson doesn't want to bridge now and ask for a massive payday in 2 years when the cap starts going up. I guess maybe Dallas is trying to get him to bridge at $4-5m or something stupid.

[Curt]

35 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

I think this is largely true. Norris (8x$7.95m) certainly is since he's the same draft year/age at signing, Stutzle (8x$8.350) because similar projections, and even Tkachuk's (7x$8.14m) contract from last year are decent comps.

I think the other big contract to add as a comp is Robert Thomas with St Louis. Robertson is 20 days younger and scored two more points in two more games. Both play right wing. Robertson scored 41 goals to Thomas' 20 goals. Thomas signed an 8x$8.125m in July. I'd argue Robertson goes a bit higher than that because of his goal scoring, but it's a good comp to add to the mix. Thomas also had better line mates, but that's a different story.

The funny bit is Dallas media is using Tage Thompson's contract as the floor. Thompson is 2 years older and had fewer points so I'm quite certain it's a floor, but I don't think it's the floor. I think if Norris/Stutzle are comps then, arguably, they're the floor seeing as how Robertson has the better stats. It is what it is.

Dallas messed up by waiting on the extension. They let other teams drive the value up. I'd say 4 months ago people would have thought $7m was the ceiling because the flat cap. We now all but officially know that the cap is going to take some big jumps in 24 and 25. Teams want to lock in players to term now so the cap hit % is lower in the future. It blows my mind that Dallas isn't willing to offer him 8x$8.5m. I'm also surprised Robertson doesn't want to bridge now and ask for a massive payday in 2 years when the cap starts going up. I guess maybe Dallas is trying to get him to bridge at $4-5m or something stupid.

Also Suzuki with Montreal

[Brawndo]

I would ask for 1 to 2 Million per year if I was Robertson 

[Eleven]

25 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I would ask for 1 to 2 Million per year if I was Robertson 

What am I not understanding?  Surely he could command more than that.

[RochesterExpat]

12 minutes ago, Eleven said:

What am I not understanding?  Surely he could command more than that.

I'm assuming he meant $1-2m more than what Robertson signed for and I don't think that's an unreasonable ask.

[RochesterExpat]

On 9/28/2022 at 10:47 AM, Trettioåtta said:

What ‘ranges’ could we offer sheet?

On 9/28/2022 at 11:04 AM, RochesterExpat said:

<$1.3m (lol)

$2.1-4.2m (lol)

$10.5m+ at the cost of 4 1st round picks (lol).

Buffalo would need to get back our third round pick to offer sheet any other ranges.

I was wrong by the way. Sorry 😞

This is true if you are offering a contract between 1 and 5 years in length. Robertson is reportedly holding out because he wants $ and term both. It's safe to assume that Buffalo is going to offer him the max term (seven years).

Offer sheet AAV is calculated on the lesser of:

- Number of years offered, or

- Five years.

When calculating a contract of 6 or 7 years, you will use 5 years for AAV. This dramatically changes the ranges in which Buffalo could offer sheet Robertson. Buffalo can afford to offer $10.5+ AAV because they currently hold the required draft picks. That's a contract value of 5 * $10.5m, or $52.5m.

On a six year contract, the real AAV on a $52.5m total contract value would be $8.75m a year, but for the offer sheet AAV calculation it's still $10.5m.

On a seven year contract, the real AAV on a $52.5m total contract value is $7.5m a year with the same $10.5m offer sheet AAV.

Therefore, assuming that Buffalo would offer sheet a contract with 7 years of length, Buffalo could offer him $8.5-9m a year which is a reasonable amount, and they would still have the necessary draft picks to pull it off. Of course, getting him to sign it and Dallas not just matching it are entirely different stories.

Of course, none of that is going to happen because real offer sheets (not just petty actions by owners) never happen. But I did want to correct the record and admit to my error. I didn't realize that about offer sheets. They just don't come up very often...

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, Eleven said:

What am I not understanding?  Surely he could command more than that.

 

4 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

I'm assuming he meant $1-2m more than what Robertson signed for and I don't think that's an unreasonable ask.

Yep, I left out the more part 

[Contempt]

17 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Yep, I left out the more part 

[Eleven]

41 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Yep, I left out the more part 

OK thanks!

4 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

I'm assuming he meant $1-2m more than what Robertson signed for and I don't think that's an unreasonable ask.

Thank you.

[RochesterExpat]

A tale of two tweets:

 

 

[inkman]

I long for the days when any ***** contract talks stalling in football or hockey don’t result in Buffalo fans spooging themselves thinking somehow that player is going to end up on their team.  

[Flashsabre]

53 minutes ago, inkman said:

I long for the days when any ***** contract talks stalling in football or hockey don’t result in Buffalo fans spooging themselves thinking somehow that player is going to end up on their team.  

I can’t remember if you have always been this negative about everything or if this is a new wrinkle you are bringing to the table.

[inkman]

7 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

I can’t remember if you have always been this negative about everything or if this is a new wrinkle you are bringing to the table.

I stopped smoking weed 36 hours ago.  It’s affecting my disposition. 

Just now, inkman said:

I stopped smoking weed 36 hours ago.  It’s affecting my disposition. 

Good news, I started smoking again 1 hour ago.  

[Norcal]

4 hours ago, inkman said:

I stopped smoking weed 36 hours ago.  It’s affecting my disposition. 

Good news, I started smoking again 1 hour ago.  

Puff away

[Grinder]

On 10/5/2022 at 5:05 PM, inkman said:

I stopped smoking weed 36 hours ago.  It’s affecting my disposition. 

Good news, I started smoking again 1 hour ago.  

Cannabis tames the inner beast for this guy. Don’t think I’ll ever stop again.

[Buffalonill]

Oh look he didn't get traded to buffalo .

what a shock

[Flashsabre]

35 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Oh look he didn't get traded to buffalo .

what a shock

There were no reports that he was being traded to Buffalo 

[inkman]

8 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

There were no reports that he was being traded to Buffalo 

But someone decided to create a whole thread about it 🤷‍♂️

[Porous Five Hole]

42 minutes ago, inkman said:

But someone decided to create a whole thread about it 🤷‍♂️

I like to play GM for a day 🤷‍♂️

[K-9]

2 hours ago, Grinder said:

Cannabis tames the inner beast for this guy. Don’t think I’ll ever stop again.

 Never stop never stopping.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/RUMORSJosh-Anderson-to-Sabrese4-NylanderSandinpick-for-Chychrune3/1/118992

E4 people, E4😜

[LabattBlue]

14 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/RUMORSJosh-Anderson-to-Sabrese4-NylanderSandinpick-for-Chychrune3/1/118992

E4 people, E4😜

Whenever a Ek mentions comes up, I think back to the poster whose name I cannot remember, who would post one hockeybuzz rumor after another. 😂