Forwards Next Season

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

 

I fully expect Adams to look at every possible scenario to improve the Sabres.

Adams could look at the season and feel the team has taken bigger strides than expected and feel adding a player of the age and caliber of PLD is worth it particularly at the Center Position.

I imagine  Adams and His Staff will ask the following questions 
 

Is Dubois an improvement at Center over Cozens, Mitts or Krebs? 
Is the cost of acquiring Dubois something The Sabres willing to pay? 

Does PLD fit in with the team we are building here? 

Would PLD be willing to sign a deal with a minimum term of five years with Buffalo?

I really like how VO has improved over the season and has developed into a very good all around player. That being said I wouldn’t hesitate to move Him in a deal for a younger asset (Top 6 Center, RHD or Goalie) 

 

The questions you are asking are the right questions. The answer to them is no. I don't see KA deviating from his mostly build from within plan with his young players. And because of that I just don't see KA considering moving Cozens, Mitts or Krebs for a player such as Dubois. The one mantra that KA has robotically repeated is that he wants players who want to be here and who are invested in the enterprise of building a winner. Dubois doesn't fit within that construct. Next season, Quinn and JJ are most likely going to move up the ranks. That's following the blueprint of building from within. 

I do see KA scouring the market for a goalie and a defenseman or two. He's been open about addressing those needs this offseason. With the forward lines I don't see him going outside their own system.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

The questions you are asking are the right questions. The answer to them is no. I don't see KA deviating from his mostly build from within plan with his young players. And because of that I just don't see KA considering moving Cozens, Mitts or Krebs for a player such as Dubois. The one mantra that KA has robotically repeated is that he wants players who want to be here and who are invested in the enterprise of building a winner. Dubois doesn't fit within that construct. Next season, Quinn and JJ are most likely going to move up the ranks. That's following the blueprint of building from within. 

I do see KA scouring the market for a goalie and a defenseman or two. He's been open about addressing those needs this offseason. With the forward lines I don't see him going outside their own system.

I agree.  I do understand why people are interested in adding a PLD.  They are looking for a more currently dynamic center then say Mitts. When you look at the remaining teams in the playoffs you see superstar forwards on every team.  Edm has McDavid and Draisaitl, Colorado has MacKinnon and Rantanen, TB Stamkos and Kucherov and even the Rags have Panarin and Kreider with his 52 goals.  Who do we have at that level?  The answer right now is no one, yet.

However, we are building more toward the Stl model and it can also succeed, by rolling 4 effective lines.  The year Stl won the Cup, they had 10 forwards and 3 D who scored 10 or more goals.

I maybe in the minority, but I think we actually could have 11 forwards with 10 or more goals next season.  We had 8 this year (including Vinnie), and Mitts and Krebs will certainly cross that threshold playing a full season.  JJP and Quinn should also cross that threshold.  By quick comparison, Edm, TB, and Colorado all have 9 double digit scoring forwards.  The Rags have only 6.  

FYI: the 4 Conference finalists also have at least one dynamic defender and really good goaltending, except Edm, but Mike Smith is playing well for them.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I’ve added two poll questions.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ve added two poll questions.

We love polls.

I have voted twice already.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I agree.  I do understand why people are interested in adding a PLD.  They are looking for a more currently dynamic center then say Mitts. When you look at the remaining teams in the playoffs you see superstar forwards on every team.  Edm has McDavid and Draisaitl, Colorado has MacKinnon and Rantanen, TB Stamkos and Kucherov and even the Rags have Panarin and Kreider with his 52 goals.  Who do we have at that level?  The answer right now is no one, yet.

However, we are building more toward the Stl model and it can also succeed, by rolling 4 effective lines.  The year Stl won the Cup, they had 10 forwards and 3 D who scored 10 or more goals.

I maybe in the minority, but I think we actually could have 11 forwards with 10 or more goals next season.  We had 8 this year (including Vinnie), and Mitts and Krebs will certainly cross that threshold playing a full season.  JJP and Quinn should also cross that threshold.  By quick comparison, Edm, TB, and Colorado all have 9 double digit scoring forwards.  The Rags have only 6.  

FYI: the 4 Conference finalists also have at least one dynamic defender and really good goaltending, except Edm, but Mike Smith is playing well for them.

Don Granato has said on more than a few occasions that he considered Mitts to be one of the best players in the last training camp. Mitts is part of the plan and is staying. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 5/31/2022 at 2:08 PM, JohnC said:

Don Granato has said on more than a few occasions that he considered Mitts to be one of the best players in the last training camp. Mitts is part of the plan and is staying. 

For all the hate Mitts gets on this board, I think the organization really likes the kid and believes he’s a core piece.  He is my top breakout candidate for this coming season. I believe a 25g 45a season is possible next season, especially if Quinn and VO are his wingers.

Edited June 3, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

For all the Mitts gate on this board, I think the organizations really likes the kid and believes he’s a core piece.  He is my top breakout candidate for this coming season. I believe a 25g 45a season is possible next season, especially if Quinn and VO are his wingers.

You and I are much aligned in regard to Mitts. I believe that he and Cozens will be vying for the top breakout player. Our lines for the most part will be internally staffed. And team improvement will be mostly derived from internal improvement. The GM needs to add players from the outside to buttress the goalie and defensive unit. 

[Taro T]

18 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You and I are much aligned in regard to Mitts. I believe that he and Cozens will be vying for the top breakout player. Our lines for the most part will be internally staffed. And team improvement will be mostly derived from internal improvement. The GM needs to add players from the outside to buttress the goalie and defensive unit. 

Am very much in the Mittelstadt can breakout camp.

But, really expect it'll be foolish in the overall scheme if Adams doesn't bring in any vets that don't pencil into the top 12 & ideally there'll be a couple that pencil into the top 9.  They will have injuries and if the guys stepping in and backfilling are all AHLers or AAAA players, they'll be putting a lot more stress on the D & GTing than they need to.

And if a guy like Peterka forces the vet that should be able to play to the press box, that's a good thing.  His forcing a guy like Bjork there doesn't really move the needle.

Bjork-level players need to be in Ra-cha-cha and not penciled into the 13th F slot.  (Btw, it looks like he's got <260 pro games under his belt.  He'll look great in R,W, & B.)

Girgensons will miss a lot of time.  He just does.  If Hinostroza is one of the good UFAs they bring in, wouldn't be surprised to see him miss some time.  Other young guys will miss time too; just the way it is.  Really want to see them have 14 guys that on day 1 should be in the NHL, (and if they have more than 14, it's a good problem to have) so the inevitable camp injury still leaves them w/ 13 NHLers on opening night plus guys like R2 Rou2 chomping to get back into the mix.

 

[dudacek]

I don't think there's much question Mitts is a useful piece.

I'd really like to see if its more Derek Roy or Derek Plante.

[JohnC]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Am very much in the Mittelstadt can breakout camp.

But, really expect it'll be foolish in the overall scheme if Adams doesn't bring in any vets that don't pencil into the top 12 & ideally there'll be a couple that pencil into the top 9.  They will have injuries and if the guys stepping in and backfilling are all AHLers or AAAA players, they'll be putting a lot more stress on the D & GTing than they need to.

And if a guy like Peterka forces the vet that should be able to play to the press box, that's a good thing.  His forcing a guy like Bjork there doesn't really move the needle.

Bjork-level players need to be in Ra-cha-cha and not penciled into the 13th F slot.  (Btw, it looks like he's got <260 pro games under his belt.  He'll look great in R,W, & B.)

Girgensons will miss a lot of time.  He just does.  If Hinostroza is one of the good UFAs they bring in, wouldn't be surprised to see him miss some time.  Other young guys will miss time too; just the way it is.  Really want to see them have 14 guys that on day 1 should be in the NHL, (and if they have more than 14, it's a good problem to have) so the inevitable camp injury still leaves them w/ 13 NHLers on opening night plus guys like R2 Rou2 chomping to get back into the mix.

 

This is just my opinion but I don't see the GM bringing in anything significant to add to the forward group. As like everyone else I want to see the goalie position upgraded and one or two additions to the blueline. I agree with you that depth is needed to handle the inevitable injuries from a long and grinding season. It's my sense however that the GM is determined to build from within the system. 

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't think there's much question Mitts is a useful piece.

I'd really like to see if its more Derek Roy or Derek Plante.

Don't go selling Plante short.  He led the team in scoring once (with a pathetically low total during the dead puck era, but not with the lowest total for a team leader) & scored their only game 7 winner (in OT to boot).  He also gave up a chance to go to the Olympics because the Sabres were having a crazy amount of C injuries back in '92.

The Sabres could always use more guys w/ the heart of Plante.

Really expect that people will be pleasantly surprised w/ Mittelstadt's level of compete & his overall game this season.

[sabresparaavida]

37 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Am very much in the Mittelstadt can breakout camp.

But, really expect it'll be foolish in the overall scheme if Adams doesn't bring in any vets that don't pencil into the top 12 & ideally there'll be a couple that pencil into the top 9.  They will have injuries and if the guys stepping in and backfilling are all AHLers or AAAA players, they'll be putting a lot more stress on the D & GTing than they need to.

And if a guy like Peterka forces the vet that should be able to play to the press box, that's a good thing.  His forcing a guy like Bjork there doesn't really move the needle.

Bjork-level players need to be in Ra-cha-cha and not penciled into the 13th F slot.  (Btw, it looks like he's got <260 pro games under his belt.  He'll look great in R,W, & B.)

Girgensons will miss a lot of time.  He just does.  If Hinostroza is one of the good UFAs they bring in, wouldn't be surprised to see him miss some time.  Other young guys will miss time too; just the way it is.  Really want to see them have 14 guys that on day 1 should be in the NHL, (and if they have more than 14, it's a good problem to have) so the inevitable camp injury still leaves them w/ 13 NHLers on opening night plus guys like R2 Rou2 chomping to get back into the mix.

 

I agree with this big time.

I definitely am in the Mitts breakout season camp, I think he will have in the neighborhood of 55 points next season. 
We had 14 forwards play 40 or more games this year, I want to have at least 14 forwards that I am comfortable with playing 40+ games for next year. 
Right now, we have Skinner, Tage, Tuch, Oloffson (assuming he re-signs), Mitts, Krebs, Cozens, Asplund, Girgs, Okposo firmly on that list, with JJP and Quinn also there (though there still is a chance they need more seasoning in the AHL). I would like to see a 4th line center brought in with solid face off numbers (I.e. a better Eakin), as well as a good middle 6er.  If we get both of those, I will be more confident about our forward group, as we are one injury away from playing Bjork as it stands currently.

[sabresparaavida]

33 minutes ago, JohnC said:

This is just my opinion but I don't see the GM bringing in anything significant to add to the forward group. As like everyone else I want to see the goalie position upgraded and one or two additions to the blueline. I agree with you that depth is needed to handle the inevitable injuries from a long and grinding season. It's my sense however that the GM is determined to build from within the system. 

Yeah, I was posting what I want to see, not what I think will necessarily happen. I think what likely happens is KA brings in a 4 C and re-signs Hinostroza or someone similar. While this isn’t far off from what I said, I think Hinostroza is firmly a 3rd liner, and I would want someone with a bit more upside, that can capably play 2nd line minutes in case of injury/kids struggling.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

Yeah, I was posting what I want to see, not what I think will necessarily happen. I think what likely happens is KA brings in a 4 C and re-signs Hinostroza or someone similar. While this isn’t far off from what I said, I think Hinostroza is firmly a 3rd liner, and I would want someone with a bit more upside, that can capably play 2nd line minutes in case of injury/kids struggling.

If I had my way I would be willing to give up our lowest first round pick and add a hefty contract for a player like Tuch and in his age bracket. I just don't see the GM doing that. My sense (opinion) is that the young GM would be more willing to spend for a second pairing defenseman than he would for a forward. My opinion (again) is that the Sabres are going to be a low budget team for the foreseeable future. The focus will continue to be with players already in the system. As everyone has brought up the critical issue is going to be what goaltender is he going to bring in. I just don't know what his thinking is on that critical position. 

Edited June 3, 2022 by JohnC

[dudacek]

53 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If I had my way I would be willing to give up our lowest first round pick and add a hefty contract for a player like Tuch and in his age bracket. I just don't see the GM doing that. My sense (opinion) is that the young GM would be more willing to spend for a second pairing defenseman than he would for a forward. My opinion (again) is that the Sabres are going to be a low budget team for the foreseeable future. The focus will continue to be with players already in the system. As everyone has brought up the critical issue is going to be what goaltender is he going to bring in. I just don't know what his thinking is on that critical position. 

Yes, but who would give you one for that price?

Sam Reinhart, for example, went for double that.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Yes, but who would give you one for that price?

Sam Reinhart, for example, went for double that.

Every trade scenario is different for the teams involved in a transaction. The calculation of a deal often has many components beyond comparing player to player, such as contract, free agency status, disgruntlement and remaking of a roster. In the Reinhart deal the Sabres got what was expected to be a low first round pick and a goalie prospect. The goalie prospect that Florida gave up, although they had the rights to him, didn't even have him under contract. Florida was already well situated with their goalie staffing and the draft pick they gave up was of little consequence to them because their roster was already loaded. And it wouldn't be surprising that Florida had an understanding with Sam that he would sign a deal with them. 

Going back to my original point in the possibility of acquiring a Tuch like player for a lower first round--- that is not out of the realm of possibility. There are teams that are going to be squeezed because of their cap situation. So, the financials could be more determinative of a player being dealt than getting back an equal value from a talent standpoint. One of the reasons that Tuch was included in the Jack deal was that Vegas had to send a contract out in order to fit Jack's contract onto their roster. 

I truly believe because the Sabres are in such a strong cap situation compared to most teams in the league that a favorable deal can be had if the organization desires it. My inclination leads me to believe that they don't have that desire. 

[dudacek]

Maybe Tuch-like means something different to you than me?

25-year-old top-six players on reasonable long-term contracts simply aren’t traded for late 1st-rounders.

Ones on bad or expiring contracts, or coming off bad seasons, sometimes maybe?

 

[dudacek]

Worth a look at the depth chart effective the dawn of free agency (*RFA)

• Skinner Thompson Tuch
• Olofsson* Mittelstadt Okposo
• Girgensons Cozens Asplund
• Ruotsalainen* Krebs Bjork
• Quinn       Biro*   Peterka
• Murray*    Xxxxxx   Pekar
• Rousek     Xxxxxx   Weissbach 
• Kisakov    Xxxxxx    Rosen
• (Bloom)   Xxxxxx    (Nadeau)

Since Bloom and Nadeau will be in juniors, that means 21 forwards are expected under contracts that count.

Last season the Sabres started the year with 24 forwards under contract and finished with 26, adding Tuch, Krebs and Jankowski, and subtracting Eichel.

[dudacek]

The seven forwards no longer under contract:

Primarily NHL: Hinostroza, Hayden, Caggiula, Eakin

Primarily AHL: Jankowski, McInnis, Malone

We expect Quinn and Peterka to graduate into 2 of the NHL spots, and Rosen and Kisakov to backfill behind them into the AHL spots they will vacate.

This means it’s not unreasonable to expect the Sabres to sign or acquire 5 more forwards, at least 2 of which should be NHL-capable. 

It’s also not unreasonable to expect these new forwards to lean heavy towards centres, given the fact the team only has 5 under contract and some of those could be shifted to the wing.

[Zamboni]

I’d bring Hinostroza back for a year with a small bump in salary. He’s a good depth guy with jam.

[Doohicksie]

....and speed.

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

Maybe Tuch-like means something different to you than me?

25-year-old top-six players on reasonable long-term contracts simply aren’t traded for late 1st-rounders.

Ones on bad or expiring contracts, or coming off bad seasons, sometimes maybe?

 

How about a player you have previously touted such as Max Comtois? He adds some size to the wing and is young enough to have some upside. A change of scenery might be good for him. 

[LGR4GM]

I'd probably trade 28 straight up for Comtois. 

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd probably trade 28 straight up for Comtois. 

@dudacekhas been touting him for a long time. He struggled last year. It's not a surprise that the coach lost some confidence in him. He fits the profile of a player who previously showed some promise but for whatever reason struggled last year. A change of scenery could help to revive his career. Because of his age he still fits the profile of the type of player with some upside and that falls within our rebuild plan. Another positive about him is that he would add some size to this smallish roster. 

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, JohnC said:

@dudacekhas been touting him for a long time. He struggled last year. It's not a surprise that the coach lost some confidence in him. He fits the profile of a player who previously showed some promise but for whatever reason struggled last year. A change of scenery could help to revive his career. Because of his age he still fits the profile of the type of player with some upside and that falls within our rebuild plan. Another positive about him is that he would add some size to this smallish roster. 

Very curious what happened to him last year, why he fell out of favour. 

He’s had his ups and downs since juniors, but Hockey Canada seems to love him.

In terms of the roster, there seems to be a good fit there.