Sabres Officially Select #9, #16, and #28

[Richard Noggin]

On 5/12/2022 at 12:40 AM, sabresparaavida said:

Worth it? Hard to say. If Nemec falls to where that trade can happen and you don’t expect Jiriceck to make it, I would consider it. But the value of 2 quality prospects is hard to beat for one slightly higher quality prospect. 

Possible? Also hard to say as it will heavily depend on the team/FO

Follow up question: is there a widely-circulated NHL draft pick value chart that can ballpark potential trade values? I'm more familiar with NFL drafting and the competing value charts referenced therein.

[Dr. Who]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Follow up question: is there a widely-circulated NHL draft pick value chart that can ballpark potential trade values? I'm more familiar with NFL drafting and the competing value charts referenced therein.

I'm not aware of such, but NHL teams are less likely to trade out of the top of the draft, so even if you could establish a hypothetical value, it's unlikely to come into play as a real event.

[Curt]

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Follow up question: is there a widely-circulated NHL draft pick value chart that can ballpark potential trade values? I'm more familiar with NFL drafting and the competing value charts referenced therein.

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up
 

This is a bit old, but it’s based on what NHL GMs have actually paid to trade up/down in the past.  It should give a rough idea.

If anyone out there has something more recent, I’d be interested.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Anybody with good size and grit available?

[DarthEbriate]

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Follow up question: is there a widely-circulated NHL draft pick value chart that can ballpark potential trade values? I'm more familiar with NFL drafting and the competing value charts referenced therein.

It's difficult for the NHL to put a good valuation on their picks for trade purposes because they're drafting 18 year-olds who will go into the developmental league for an additional 1-3 years before making it to the big league. It's like if the NFL were drafting high schoolers and their farm teams were the NCAA teams. In the NFL it makes sense to trade down because you still expect a 3rd round draft pick to become a starter (just not a day one starter like a 1st round pick). In the NHL, a 3rd round pick is probable to make the roster at some point, but it's no guarantee.

The value of NHL draft picks is much more tangible at the trade deadline. Great player = 1st + prospect; Veteran role player = 2nd; etc. It shifts a bit each season based on who "sets" the market.

[sabresparaavida]

7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Follow up question: is there a widely-circulated NHL draft pick value chart that can ballpark potential trade values? I'm more familiar with NFL drafting and the competing value charts referenced therein.

 

54 minutes ago, Curt said:

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up
 

This is a bit old, but it’s based on what NHL GMs have actually paid to trade up/down in the past.  It should give a rough idea.

If anyone out there has something more recent, I’d be interested.

The main issue with knowing what is fair value for a trade up (at least in the first round, especially the first half) is that they are rare and so there really isn’t an established value. According to the chart though, 9 and 16 plus a 3rd or 2nd next year would get us to 2,  9 and the Florida pick would be able to get us to about pick number 4, and 9 and our second could get us to about pick 6. I wouldn’t want to move 16 in a trade up, but would be very happy with moving one or both of our next two picks if it meant getting Nemec or Jiriceck. 

[Curt]

Just now, sabresparaavida said:

 

The main issue with knowing what is fair value for a trade up (at least in the first round, especially the first half) is that they are rare and so there really isn’t an established value. According to the chart though, 9 and 16 plus a 3rd or 2nd next year would get us to 2,  9 and the Florida pick would be able to get us to about pick number 4, and 9 and our second could get us to about pick 6. I wouldn’t want to move 16 in a trade up, but would be very happy with moving one or both of our next two picks if it meant getting Nemec or Jiriceck. 

When looking at trades into the top 5, the cost will vary a lot from year to year.  It’s going to depend on the top-5 players in that particular draft and how good they are perceived to be. 

I think that any chart is a lot less useful when you are looking at trading up into the top 5.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I read Pronman’s mock draft and some of the comments here and I think as a group we forget that this draft is about development not immediate help.  We took Rosen at 14 last year and it could be another 2-3 years before he joins the NHL.  We drafted Johnson at 31 in 2019 and he also might still be 2 years from the NHL.

Because of development I try not to look at the Sabres needs, but the holes in the pipeline. So who are our top prospects by position.

C - 7th rd pick Nozak, 5th rd pick Costantini

G - Levi, UPL and Portillo

RHD - Laaksonen

LHD - Johnson

RW - 4th rd picks Nadeau and Huglen, Rousek?

LW- Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Bloom, and 5th rd pick Cedarqvist.

Looking at this draft I’m looking for centers, RHD, LHD and RW and with 4 picks in the top 41, I wouldn’t mind seeing one each from those areas of need if the draft falls  right.  
 

At 9 I like Lekkerimaki RW

at 16 I’m hoping  for Kasper, C

at 31 I’m thinking the best D available, R or L. Although I would be surprised if we grab another C.

at 41 what about RHD Noah Warren.  At 6’5 he’d make a giant addition to the D.  If he develops like Samuelsson, he’s a steal at 41.

[sabresparaavida]

^Going off that
 

Immediate needs, ranked: 

1. G

2. Rhd

3. Forwards (our forward corps is too young to really say if center or winger is of more need. If JJP and Quinn are truly ready to be impactful, then it’s probably C, but if not it is probably wing. 
4. LHD

Pipeline Needs:

1. RHD (I see 0 future NHLers in our system. Landon rn is a healthy scratch at 22 in the AHL, I don’t see him progressing enough to make it)

2. C (could be Rw or LHD here based on your list, but Johnson is a better prospect than any of the C or rw prospects and quality>quantity, and we could see some of the lw prospects shift to the right side)

3. RW (picked over LhD because again, quality>quantity 

4. LHD (Johnson is a quality prospect, and Novikov ain’t bad)

5. G (tough between lw where we are more loaded, and G where we have Some very high quality prospects. I’m a believer in taking a goalie every year, so I put that here)

6. LW (lotta solid prospects) 

I think draft priority should pretty mixing follow the pipeline needs, except for LD in the first round. Dahlin, power and Samuelson are all ld 23 or under, and are under team control for likely another 5+ years each. Throw in Johnson having a very good shot at the NHL, and it looks like even if the prospect drafted becomes good enough for the NHL, they would be blocked getting onto the roster. 

[Doohicksie]

I think the Draft Bot just rolled us.

 

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think the Draft Bot just rolled us.

Is it because the Sabres have 3 picks in the first round and were therefore a prime Rickroll target?

Edited May 22, 2022 by DarthEbriate

[Richard Noggin]

On 5/19/2022 at 10:11 AM, Curt said:

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up
 

This is a bit old, but it’s based on what NHL GMs have actually paid to trade up/down in the past.  It should give a rough idea.

If anyone out there has something more recent, I’d be interested.

Historical data is almost as good, or better, than any hypothetical chart. Thank you.

[Derrico]

Sorry if this has been answered but if Florida loses this series do we know the spot of our third 1st?  Would it be pick 28 (last 4 reserved for conference finalists)?

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Derrico said:

Sorry if this has been answered but if Florida loses this series do we know the spot of our third 1st?  Would it be pick 28 (last 4 reserved for conference finalists)?

If the Swamp Cats lose this series, the pick WILL be 28.  Otherwise it will be 30, 31, or 32 depending on whether they lose next round, lose the Finals, or win them respectively.

[Brawndo]

Add 28th and 41st to the list 

[JoeSchmoe]

21 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Add 28th and 41st to the list 

Man... You really had your finger on the button for this post. Series just ended!

Edited May 24, 2022 by JoeSchmoe

[Brawndo]

Sabres Twitter is on Top of Things as well

 

[PerreaultForever]

Well this went well didn't it? Assuming they don't blow this draft we will fill that prospect cupboard up nicely. 

[LabattBlue]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well this went well didn't it? Assuming they don't blow this draft we will fill that prospect cupboard up nicely. 

…and as it stands today, the Sabres have their 1st and 3 2nd’s in the 2023 draft. 👍🏻

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

…and as it stands today, the Sabres have their 1st and 3 2nd’s in the 2023 draft. 👍🏻

and that is looking like a very good draft class too. 

[Mustache of God]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

and that is looking like a very good draft class too. 

Meh, I don't care what we'll do with pick 32 next year.

[DarthEbriate]

I care.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:

Meh, I don't care what we'll do with pick 32 next year.

You should.  Samuelsson was drafted 32nd., Asplund 33rd, and JJP 34.  Jokiharhu went 29th to the Hawks, and St Louis grabbed Thompson at 26.  That's 5 important pieces of next year's roster drafted 26-34.  I'd say the Fla pick is important, maybe not for next year, but soon there after with a little luck.

[PerreaultForever]

41 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You should.  Samuelsson was drafted 32nd., Asplund 33rd, and JJP 34.  Jokiharhu went 29th to the Hawks, and St Louis grabbed Thompson at 26.  That's 5 important pieces of next year's roster drafted 26-34.  I'd say the Fla pick is important, maybe not for next year, but soon there after with a little luck.

Absolutely. Teams rise or fall based on these not obvious selections. Speaking of Samuelsson, while some people will consider this pick too soon, I'd strongly consider Noah Warren with that Florida pick. Big strong RHD. Not offensively skilled, but we already have that so he'd be the compliment and the shut down in 2-3 years. 

(and since we aren't going to get Shane Wright, might as well get a guy who can take him out of the play :))

https://thehockeywriters.com/noah-warren-2022-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Absolutely. Teams rise or fall based on these not obvious selections. Speaking of Samuelsson, while some people will consider this pick too soon, I'd strongly consider Noah Warren with that Florida pick. Big strong RHD. Not offensively skilled, but we already have that so he'd be the compliment and the shut down in 2-3 years. 

(and since we aren't going to get Shane Wright, might as well get a guy who can take him out of the play :))

https://thehockeywriters.com/noah-warren-2022-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

strikes me as a pick 41 guy based on the projections and rankings