Offer Sheets, is it about to happen?

[kas23]

7 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

KA:  "If you're putting me on the spot, I would expect that we would make our three picks."

"Expect" is a huge weasel word here.  It's easy to see a scenario where he could use draft picks to make the team better now rather than in a couple years.  Also, that quote was only about the first round picks.  If the right player is available for under $4.1 million he could easily go for it.

Well, you never say never is his business. If he’s given an offer he can’t refuse, then he’ll listen. A trade offer. But, an offer sheet is him going out looking for a deal, not a deal coming to him. All that said, a goalie is probably the only position he’d consider. 

[Zamboni]

Every year these “offer sheet” threads pop up…. And every year you can count on 1 -3 offer sheets at the most. I’ll go out on a limb and be daring, be bold, and predict between 1 - 3 offer sheets 😂

[Doohicksie]

20 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Well, you never say never is his business. If he’s given an offer he can’t refuse, then he’ll listen. A trade offer. But, an offer sheet is him going out looking for a deal, not a deal coming to him. All that said, a goalie is probably the only position he’d consider. 

I will go the other way with this:  I wouldn't count out Kevyn extending an offer to an RFA who's ready to contribute right now but still as a lot of tread on the tires.  He's the kind of GM that will use any means available to build the team to his plan.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

Every year these “offer sheet” threads pop up…. And every year you can count on 1 -3 offer sheets at the most. I’ll go out on a limb and be daring, be bold, and predict between 1 - 3 offer sheets 😂

Has there been a year with 3?  I’m not sure there’s been a year with 2 for that matter.

[JoeSchmoe]

In almost every case the math works out to not make sense.

Draft picks are potential future entry level contracts. Guys this cheap ALSO allow you to sign free agents.

Keeping multiple draft picks (future entry level players) + money leftover for FA's >>> 1 RFA.

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Has there been a year with 3?  I’m not sure there’s been a year with 2 for that matter.

There have 10 offer sheets total in the salary cap era, and just 2 since 2013: Montreal to Aho in 2019 and Carolina to Kotkaniemi last year.

Last time there were 3 in one year was 1997: Colorado matched the Rangers for Sakic, and Vancouver matched Toronto’s offer to Matthias Ohlund. Tampa did not match the Flyers offer for Chris Gratton.

[Sabel79]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There have 10 offer sheets total in the salary cap era, and just 2 since 2013: Montreal to Aho in 2019 and Carolina to Kotkaniemi last year.

Last time there were 3 in one year was 1997: Colorado matched the Rangers for Sakic, and Vancouver matched Toronto’s offer to Matthias Ohlund. Tampa did not match the Flyers offer for Chris Gratton.

 

Remember that time Darcy turned him into Danny Briere?  

 

[Weave]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

There have been 10 offer sheets signed total in the salary cap era, and just 2 since 2013: Montreal to Aho in 2019 and Carolina to Kotkaniemi last year.

Last time there were 3 in one year was 1997: Colorado matched the Rangers for Sakic, and Vancouver matched Toronto’s offer to Matthias Ohlund. Tampa did not match the Flyers offer for Chris Gratton.

To the bolded, we really do not know how many offer sheets occur each offseason.

[tom webster]

8 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Has there been a year with 3?  I’m not sure there’s been a year with 2 for that matter.

Exactly. Three would be a development.

8 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

In almost every case the math works out to not make sense.

Draft picks are potential future entry level contracts. Guys this cheap ALSO allow you to sign free agents.

Keeping multiple draft picks (future entry level players) + money leftover for FA's >>> 1 RFA.

Not if you can identify that one player that can complete your line up.

[JohnC]

31 minutes ago, tom webster said:

 

Not if you can identify that one player that can complete your line up.

For a team like the Sabres I don't see one targeted player be sufficient to complete our lineup. As @JoeSchmoe stated when factoring in the cost it makes more sense to retain your draft picks for entry level players and then apply your savings to sign mid-level free agents and trades . 

Kevin Adams has repeatedly stated the importance of keeping his draft picks to build up the organization's talent base. I just don't see him going the offer sheet route to address roster needs. It goes against what he has said in how he will rebuild the roster

 

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

To the bolded, we really do not know how many offer sheets occur each offseason.

We do know.  Offer sheets are made public.

Other teams are allowed to speak with offer sheet eligible RFAs.  If some other team and the RFA come to an agreement on terms, and sign the offer sheet then that’s an offer sheet.  If the other team and the RFA talk but do not come to an agreement on terms then that’s not an offer sheet.

The teams and players actually talk and negotiate these offer sheet contracts.  The other teams don’t just fax them in blind.

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Curt said:

We do know.  Offer sheets are made public.

Other teams are allowed to speak with offer sheet eligible RFAs.  If some other team and the RFA come to an agreement on terms, and sign the offer sheet then that’s an offer sheet.  If the other team and the RFA talk but do not come to an agreement on terms then that’s not an offer sheet.

The teams and players actually talk and negotiate these offer sheet contracts.  The other teams don’t just fax them in blind.

 Think what he means is we don’t know how many sheets are offered but not signed.

For example, there were rumours Brayden Point declined one.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

16 minutes ago, Curt said:

We do know.  Offer sheets are made public.

Other teams are allowed to speak with offer sheet eligible RFAs.  If some other team and the RFA come to an agreement on terms, and sign the offer sheet then that’s an offer sheet.  If the other team and the RFA talk but do not come to an agreement on terms then that’s not an offer sheet.

The teams and players actually talk and negotiate these offer sheet contracts.  The other teams don’t just fax them in blind.

How many do you think *occur* (key word), but never are made public because the other team says don't bother we are going to match  and you should target someone else?

[Weave]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 Think what he means is we don’t know how many sheets are offered but not signed.

For example, there were rumours Brayden Point declined one.

Yup.  Thx.

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

For a team like the Sabres I don't see one targeted player be sufficient to complete our lineup. As @JoeSchmoe stated when factoring in the cost it makes more sense to retain your draft picks for entry level players and then apply your savings to sign mid-level free agents and trades . 

Kevin Adams has repeatedly stated the importance of keeping his draft picks to build up the organization's talent base. I just don't see him going the offer sheet route to address roster needs. It goes against what he has said in how he will rebuild the roster

 

I don’t expect the Sabres to do anything significant with RFA’s but there are definitely players available that will help them faster then any 2023 draftee not including the next great one.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 Think what he means is we don’t know how many sheets are offered but not signed.

For example, there were rumours Brayden Point declined one.

 

57 minutes ago, Weave said:

Yup.  Thx.

I’m sure there are a lot of talks between GMs and RFAs that don’t result in an offer sheet being signed.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

How many do you think *occur* (key word), but never are made public because the other team says don't bother we are going to match  and you should target someone else?

Probably none.  If a GM is going to go through the trouble of negotiating and agreeing to a contract with another teams RFA, he probably will go through with it.  I can’t imagine dropping it just because the other GM says he would match, especially when the whole thing is kind of designed to put the GM on the spot with a decision of whether or not to match.  Don’t think they would let him off the hook so easy.  Put him to the test.

[Trettioåtta]

What do we do if someone offer sheets Oloffson. Likely in the 5-6 range, such that we would get 1st and 3rd in 2023?

I like the idea of using the second round pick to get a young decent player.

[French Collection]

10 minutes ago, Trettioåtta said:

What do we do if someone offer sheets Oloffson. Likely in the 5-6 range, such that we would get 1st and 3rd in 2023?

I like the idea of using the second round pick to get a young decent player.

Teams need to be sold on a guy to give up a 2023 first round pick.

[JoeSchmoe]

4 hours ago, tom webster said:

Not if you can identify that one player that can complete your line up.

As per the equation, the price you pay for one player is too high.

If a franchise wants to win a cup, you can't just "complete" your lineup for a year or two... You have to be competitive year after year.

Even if you're a top team, you still only have at best a 1 in maybe 5 chance at winning a cup since there are so many other good teams.

The secret is staying good year after year after year to maximize the number of times you have a 1 in 5 chance. By trading away your prospect base (not to mention giving up free agent money), you're sure to fall in your chance to win when your prospect pipeline (and cheap talent) dries up. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, Trettioåtta said:

What do we do if someone offer sheets Oloffson. Likely in the 5-6 range, such that we would get 1st and 3rd in 2023?

I like the idea of using the second round pick to get a young decent player.

I don't think this is going to happen, but if it does ... 

If I'm KA I do not match.  That's a lot of $ for VO and 2023 1st is pretty solid even if it's lower in round 1.

[tom webster]

19 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

As per the equation, the price you pay for one player is too high.

If a franchise wants to win a cup, you can't just "complete" your lineup for a year or two... You have to be competitive year after year.

Even if you're a top team, you still only have at best a 1 in maybe 5 chance at winning a cup since there are so many other good teams.

The secret is staying good year after year after year to maximize the number of times you have a 1 in 5 chance. By trading away your prospect base (not to mention giving up free agent money), you're sure to fall in your chance to win when your prospect pipeline (and cheap talent) dries up. 

If you understand your trajectory and you pick the right player, the player you sign will impact your team in return for four late first round picks that likely won’t. At some point as you build your team you arrive to a point where your need to stock your prospect pool lessens temporarily.

[JoeSchmoe]

28 minutes ago, tom webster said:

If you understand your trajectory and you pick the right player, the player you sign will impact your team in return for four late first round picks that likely won’t. At some point as you build your team you arrive to a point where your need to stock your prospect pool lessens temporarily.

4 late first round picks PLUS all that cap space.

I agree with what you're saying in a non-cap world.

Since you need as many good cheap guys as possible in a cap world, you'll need those 4 late first rounders or you'll run out of cap space and be stuck signing JAGs to fill out the bottom end of your lineup. 

[nucci]

Can't just rely on the draft to build your team. Sometimes signing a FA is a good thing

[IKnowPhysics]

30 minutes ago, tom webster said:

If you understand your trajectory and you pick the right player, the player you sign will impact your team in return for four late first round picks that likely won’t. At some point as you build your team you arrive to a point where your need to stock your prospect pool lessens temporarily.

Big oof.  Naw.

 

Maths:

If impact is defined by a 200GP player, then even in the back half of the 1st round, you still have a ~44% chance of selecting an impact player.  Over the course of four selections, each which that chance, here's what you get:

9.8% chance of not selecting an impact player

30.9% chance of selecting precisely one impact player

36.4% chance of selecting precisely two impact players

19.1% chance of selecting precisely three impact players

3.8% chance of selecting precisely four impact players

And four years of firsts isn't temporary.  In a sport with an average career length of five years, that's an eternity.

 

But none of this matters because:

30 minutes ago, tom webster said:

If you understand your trajectory and you pick the right player, the player you sign will 

...be matched by the other team.