What if the Sabres win the lottery?

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, Curt said:

The odds remain the same each time, but of course increasing the number of times that you play increases the chances that you win.

With the league drawing two lottery winners, the Sabres have a greater chance of winning a lottery draw than if there was only one drawing, and they have a lesser chance of winning than they would if the league was still drawing three lottery winners.

The odds: tell me! Gimme gimme gimme all the odds.

[GASabresIUFAN]

36 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The odds: tell me! Gimme gimme gimme all the odds.

Don't you mean 

https://www.starwars.com/video/never-tell-me-the-odds

[woods-racer]

3 hours ago, JujuFish said:

It's like you're aware of Gambler's Fallacy and you're overcorrecting.  The odds don't change between plays, but if you buy 10 tickets right now, for 10 consecutive lottery wins, your odds of winning at least one of them are significantly greater than 1 in 300 million.

Are you saying that if I buy a lottery ticket for each of the next 10 weekly lotteries and I pick the same numbers for each lottery event and that the longer I do this the greater chances I have to win?

 

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

Let’s use an extreme example. Suppose you have 2 people. Person 1 plays the lottery only once and has an odds of winning 1 in 300M. Now, suppose Person 2 lives for over 900M years (or better yet, has an infinite lifespan) and plays the same lottery once per day for their whole life. Person 2 does not have the same odds of winning over their lifespan (that’s the key here) than person 1. 

The odds of a previous lottery  winner winning again with the same set of numbers are the same as the odds of a person that has never one with every lottery played. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Post #4 took us off the rails and now it's up to me to get us back on the track.

Who cares what the odds are and how they are defined and how it all works and ...

If the Sabres do manage to luck into the #1 or #2 pick they have to use those picks on the best player they have at the top of their draft board.

They should not under any circumstances trade down, unless the offer is so insanely in their favour.  The top ranked players in this draft are not likely to trigger that kind of offer form any other GM.

[JujuFish]

3 hours ago, woods-racer said:

Are you saying that if I buy a lottery ticket for each of the next 10 weekly lotteries and I pick the same numbers for each lottery event and that the longer I do this the greater chances I have to win?

The more times you play, the higher your overall odds of winning.  Each individual chance remains the same, but you're taking more chances.  If you have a slight amount of coding experience, this is extremely easy to check.  Generate two random numbers between 1 and 20 (to simulate Buffalo's 5% chance) and check if either number is a 1, marking it as a Sabres win if so.  Loop a million times.  Calculate the win percentage.  You'll see it's pretty much 9.75%.

Edited May 8, 2022 by JujuFish

[Mustache of God]

For anyone curious, the draft is this Tuesday and is 99.5% happening as scheduled.

[kas23]

1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:

For anyone curious, the draft is this Tuesday and is 99.5% happening as scheduled.

Draft lottery…

[Mustache of God]

11 hours ago, kas23 said:

Draft lottery…

Oh man, I was 100% incorrect on that.

[kas23]

1 hour ago, Mustache of God said:

Oh man, I was 100% incorrect on that.

You said it only had a 99.5% chance of happening as scheduled. So, this would fall under the 0.5% of not happening. Or, a 0.5% chance of it 100% not happening on Tuesday. 

[bob_sauve28]

On 5/6/2022 at 2:41 PM, woods-racer said:

@SDS turned me on to a book a few years back called A Drunkards' Walk-How Randomness Rules Our Lives. 

Talks all about math-probabilities-statistics and how swayed they are or can be. Quite eye opening.

Talk about random: 

 

Some rock floating through space for billions of years just happens to line up with our orbital trajectory and bam!! 

 

Also, we all have 16 great-grand parents, all who lived roughly about the same time, but perhaps scattered all over the planet. Not knowing each other, but they all in rather random ways had sex and produced your grand parents and so on, and here you are. So many random events wrapped up in that going back to the beginning of time. 

 

If you are reading this, or if you are not, your existence is incredibly random 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Talk about random: 

 

Some rock floating through space for billions of years just happens to line up with our orbital trajectory and bam!! 

 

Also, we all have 16 great-grand parents, all who lived roughly about the same time, but perhaps scattered all over the planet. Not knowing each other, but they all in rather random ways had sex and produced your grand parents and so on, and here you are. So many random events wrapped up in that going back to the beginning of time. 

 

If you are reading this, or if you are not, your existence is incredibly random 

Yep.  My grandparents were born in 4 different countries and their parents in 3 more. The countries include Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine, USA and Canada.  They emigrated to the US and Canada between 1904 and 1924 and by a wide variety of circumstances ended up in Buffalo.  For example my great grandmother was living in NJ and working for Edison making lightbulbs.  She travelled to Toronto to visit her sister, meet my great grandfather an immigrant from Russia and fell in love.  Got married in Canada started a family there and then for reasons unknown moved to Buffalo.  

[calti]

On 5/6/2022 at 11:17 AM, SwampD said:

Not sure that’s how probability works.

Its the new math

[matter2003]

We celebrate like it's New Years Eve 1999?

[steveoath]

Can the Vegas pick move up to 11-15. Or can it only stay where it is or move with lottery win?

[Flashsabre]

3 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Can the Vegas pick move up to 11-15. Or can it only stay where it is or move with lottery win?

A pick can only move up 10 spots. If Vegas won the lottery they would move up to 6th. If they won the second slot they could move up to 7th. They cannot be bumped back. So 6th, 7th or 16th are the options.  The pick is top 10 protected. So if they move up then they keep the pick and Sabres get their  2023 pick.

[MattPie]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

A pick can only move up 10 spots. If Vegas won the lottery they would move up to 6th. If they won the second slot they could move up to 7th. They cannot be bumped back. So 6th, 7th or 16th are the options.  The pick is top 10 protected. So if they move up then they keep the pick and Sabres get their  2023 pick.

I think if they won the second draw, it'd still be 6th. Winning the second draw moves up 10 spots, or to second overall. Can't think of a way they'd move up 9 spots.

[Flashsabre]

2 hours ago, MattPie said:

I think if they won the second draw, it'd still be 6th. Winning the second draw moves up 10 spots, or to second overall. Can't think of a way they'd move up 9 spots.

I think you are right. I was thinking about 1st and 2nd but as it is two separate draws then yeah 6th would be the spot.

[elijah]

Came in this thread for some unwarranted blind optimism on the possibility of adding Wright to an already stacked pipeline ..

 

Left rather disappointed and curious where my mind was during high school math 

[SwampD]

On 5/8/2022 at 10:53 AM, JujuFish said:

It's like you're aware of Gambler's Fallacy and you're overcorrecting.  The odds don't change between plays, but if you buy 10 tickets right now, for 10 consecutive lottery wins, your odds of winning at least one of them are significantly greater than 1 in 300 million.

I know I'm late to this, but 3.333e-8 is not significantly greater than 3.333e-9.

In fact, your odds of winning the Mega Millions don't really increase all that much by buying a ticket. 😂

[JujuFish]

8 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I know I'm late to this, but 3.333e-8 is not significantly greater than 3.333e-9.

In fact, your odds of winning the Mega Millions don't really increase all that much by buying a ticket. 😂

Granted, it's all a waste of money, but an order of magnitude is significant.

Edited May 11, 2022 by JujuFish

[SwampD]

7 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

Granted, it's all a waste of money, but an order of magnitude is significant.

Not for 20 bucks!