What if the Sabres win the lottery?

[GASabresIUFAN]

There are two lottery slots.  What do the Sabres do if they win the No 1 slot?  What if they win the No 2 slot?  How does it change KA’s off-season game plan?  Are any of the prospects NHL ready?  Is Wright the dynamic center the forward group needs? Would KA consider trading down a slot or two to add more draft capital or a player?

Edited May 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There are two lottery slots.  What do the Sabres do if they win the No 1 slot?  What if they win the No 2 slot?  How does it change KA’s off-season game plan?  Are any of the prospects NHL ready?  Is Wright the dynamic center the forward group needs? Would KA consider trading down a slot or two to add more draft capital or a player?

You don't trade down. Absolutely worst idea. 

#1, take Wright and send him back to the ohl

#2, take Cooley and send him to college

[freester]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There are two lottery slots.  What do the Sabres do if they win the No 1 slot?  What if they win the No 2 slot?  How does it change KA’s off-season game plan?  Are any of the prospects NHL ready?  Is Wright the dynamic center the forward group needs? Would KA consider trading down a slot or two to add more draft capital or a player?

He would draft Wright with #1 slot and Nemec with #2 slot. No further discussion needed. 

[nfreeman]

For context, their odds are:

- 64.4% chance of staying at #9

- 23.5% chance of dropping to #10

- 5.4% chance of moving to #2

- 5% chance of moving to #1

- 1.7% chance of dropping to #11

So, a 10.4% chance of moving up to #1 or #2 -- that's actually better than I was expecting and worth tuning in for.

 

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

For context, their odds are:

- 64.4% chance of staying at #9

- 23.5% chance of dropping to #10

- 5.4% chance of moving to #2

- 5% chance of moving to #1

- 1.7% chance of dropping to #11

So, a 10.4% chance of moving up to #1 or #2 -- that's actually better than I was expecting and worth tuning in for.

 

Not sure that’s how probability works.

[tom webster]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Not sure that’s how probability works.

You realize you are opening up a while can of worms that I learned a long time ago not to broach.

[woods-racer]

14 minutes ago, tom webster said:

You realize you are opening up a while can of worms that I learned a long time ago not to broach.

@SDS turned me on to a book a few years back called A Drunkards' Walk-How Randomness Rules Our Lives. 

Talks all about math-probabilities-statistics and how swayed they are or can be. Quite eye opening.

[SDS]

24 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Not sure that’s how probability works.

In this scenario, I think it does. There’s a finite number of outcomes split up into those groups.

1 minute ago, woods-racer said:

@SDS turned me on to a book a few years back called A Drunkards' Walk-How Randomness Rules Our Lives. 

Talks all about math-probabilities-statistics and how swayed they are or can be. Quite eye opening.

Yes! People can be very fooled by statistics.

However, I don’t think this is one of those cases. I think this is essentially a mildly more involved case of rolling a die.

[PerreaultForever]

Well we won't, but if we did I'm sure we will make the Wright choice. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

You don't trade down. Absolutely worst idea. 

#1, take Wright and send him back to the ohl

#2, take Cooley and send him to college

 

1 hour ago, freester said:

He would draft Wright with #1 slot and Nemec with #2 slot. No further discussion needed. 

Apparently a discussion is needed.  

I'd also take Slafkovsky at 2.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There are two lottery slots.  What do the Sabres do if they win the No 1 slot?  What if they win the No 2 slot?  How does it change KA’s off-season game plan?  Are any of the prospects NHL ready?  Is Wright the dynamic center the forward group needs? Would KA consider trading down a slot or two to add more draft capital or a player?

What do the Sabres do if they win the No 1 slot?  Draft the top player on their board.

What if they win the No 2 slot?  Draft the top player on their board.

How does it change KA’s off-season game plan?  It probably doesn’t.

Are any of the prospects NHL ready?  It’s probably not best for any of them to go straight to the NHL.

Is Wright the dynamic center the forward group needs?  Dynamic?  I don’t think so.  More like steady and effective.

Would KA consider trading down a slot or two to add more draft capital or a player?  I doubt it very much.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Curt

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, woods-racer said:

@SDS turned me on to a book a few years back called A Drunkards' Walk-How Randomness Rules Our Lives. 

Talks all about math-probabilities-statistics and how swayed they are or can be. Quite eye opening.

@Wyldnwoody44 used to tell us what percentage of stats are made up on the spot.  I forget the number, but it is staggeringly high.

[Brawndo]

5 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

@Wyldnwoody44 used to tell us what percentage of stats are made up on the spot.  I forget the number, but it is staggeringly high.

73.6%

[Taro T]

If the Sabres win the 2nd OA pick, if a deal can get worked out to move back to 4 w/ AZ or Seattle & they agree to not take a D at 2, do it.  And then take either the guy that's left of Jiricek or Nemec or just take Jiricek outright if they're both there.

[woods-racer]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

In this scenario, I think it does. There’s a finite number of outcomes split up into those groups.

Yes! People can be very fooled by statistics.

However, I don’t think this is one of those cases. I think this is essentially a mildly more involved case of rolling a die.

I wouldn't call it being fooled, just not understanding in this case.

If you get 2 shots moving up in the draft one at 5% and one at 5.2% it is very easy to assume that their odds are 10.2%. Some would assume that they are much better but maybe not a total of 10.2%.

The reality is when the first lottery is played and you lose the odds of winning the second lottery are still just 5%. Getting more chances does not increase the % chance you will win.

[SABRES 0311]

I think it would take a helluva offer for KA to do anything but draft players. We already tried the old trade assets for names and what we got didn’t pan out. Build from the bottom up and create a pipeline culture where guys are indoctrinated into what being a Sabre means. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

73.6%

This is oddly accurate 😂

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, woods-racer said:

I wouldn't call it being fooled, just not understanding in this case.

If you get 2 shots moving up in the draft one at 5% and one at 5.2% it is very easy to assume that their odds are 10.2%. Some would assume that they are much better but maybe not a total of 10.2%.

The reality is when the first lottery is played and you lose the odds of winning the second lottery are still just 5%. Getting more chances does not increase the % chance you will win.

Except the odds of winning the 2nd lottery ARE better than 5% because if the team that won the 1st draw wins again, that result is voided and they draw again until a winner is chosen.  In that 2nd draw, if Vegas won the 1st, the Sabres odds are now just about 5.05% and if the Habs won the 1st draw, the Sabres now have nearly a 6.1% chance in the 2nd draw.  And by weighting that full distribution is how they get the 5.4% chance of winning the 2nd draw.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Except the odds of winning the 2nd lottery ARE better than 5% because if the team that won the 1st draw wins again, that result is voided and they draw again until a winner is chosen.  In that 2nd draw, if Vegas won the 1st, the Sabres odds are now just about 5.05% and if the Habs won the FC 1st draw, the Sabres now have nearly a 6.1% chance in the 2nd draw.  And by weighting that full distribution is how they get the 5.4% chance of winning the 2nd draw.

Regarding the bolded:  is that really how that works?  After the first draw, one set of numbers/ping pong balls/whatever is eliminated, so everyone else’s odds would go up some.  How would they drop after the 1st draw?

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, Curt said:

Regarding the bolded:  is that really how that works?  After the first draw, one set of numbers/ping pong balls/whatever is eliminated, so everyone else’s odds would go up some.  How would they drop after the 1st draw?

Each draw has 14 lottery balls numbered 1-14 and 4 balls are drawn.  The order they come out is immaterial, so there are 1,001 combinations.  Teams are randomly assigned enough combinations to meet their odds.  (Sabres have 5% chance of winning, they get 50 lotto tickets.  Moe-ray-all has 18.5% chance of winning; they get 185 combos.  And so on & so forth.)

The Sabres had 5% odds of winning the 1st draw w/ 1,001 combinations (one of which is a "do over" not assigned to any team).  If Vegas w/ their 0.5% chance of winning wins the 1st draw, then in the next draw their 5 combinations join the other 1 out of 1,001 to become a do over.  And now, the Sabres 50 winning combos out of 995 valid combos gives them a 5.03% chance of winning that 2nd draw.  (Had thought Vegas had a 1% chance of winning, an article on NHL.com said it was actually 0.5%; thus the discrepancy in #'s between this post & the one you quoted.)

Edited May 7, 2022 by Taro T

[JujuFish]

15 hours ago, woods-racer said:

If you get 2 shots moving up in the draft one at 5% and one at 5.2% it is very easy to assume that their odds are 10.2%. Some would assume that they are much better but maybe not a total of 10.2%.

Someone assuming this wouldn't be that far off, since their odds of winning one of the two would be 9.96%.

[woods-racer]

14 hours ago, Taro T said:

Except the odds of winning the 2nd lottery ARE better than 5% because if the team that won the 1st draw wins again, that result is voided and they draw again until a winner is chosen.  In that 2nd draw, if Vegas won the 1st, the Sabres odds are now just about 5.05% and if the Habs won the 1st draw, the Sabres now have nearly a 6.1% chance in the 2nd draw.  And by weighting that full distribution is how they get the 5.4% chance of winning the 2nd draw.

My point is that it was never 10.2% because you have 2 lottery tickets. In this specific case the parameters changed for the second lottery so the second lottery pick is variable dependent on the first, but the % chance of winning still changes very little.

[woods-racer]

4 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

Someone assuming this wouldn't be that far off, since their odds of winning one of the two would be 9.96%.

The chances of winning the first one are 5%.

The chances of winning the second one are at best 6.1%.

[SwampD]

SMH.

I see what you mean, TW.

[JujuFish]

5 hours ago, woods-racer said:

The chances of winning the first one are 5%.

The chances of winning the second one are at best 6.1%.

And?