Thoughts on an Alternative to the Draft Lottery Format

[SwampD]

43 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

The lottery is  In place so teams can't tank.

 

Thanks. We were all wondering about that.

[LGR4GM]

43 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

The lottery is  In place so teams can't tank.

 

and yet, they still do.

Wait until you see what goes on this offseason going into 2023. Arizona is going to burn that team to the ground in order to make sure they get a top 3 pick. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

53 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

The lottery is  In place so teams can't tank.

 

It doesn’t stop it and it doesn’t matter in the end.  How many teams will sabotage their seasons next year to get Bedard ?  3 or 4? How is the lottery going to stop that?

Rebuilding is also a tradition in the NHL.  Every year bad teams trade away veteran talent for draft picks.  The draft lottery has done nothing to change that.  

Also the odds of getting a generational talent at the top of the draft are small.  McDavid, Crosby and Mathews are truly elite, but what of Hischier or Hall or Yakupov or RNH or Eric Johnson. None of these guys are generational talent.  Many others are excellent players but aren’t franchise changers like an Ekblad or even Dahlin. 

How many Cups have McDavid or Matthews even played for?  Getting a generational talent obviously doesn’t guarantee success.  It takes a team to contend and good management to build a team.

 It seems most “tanking” teams lack the management to right their ships.  Arizona has been a disaster franchise since day one.  Toronto hasn’t won a Cup since 1967 or a playoff series since 2004.  There is talk in Toronto of hiring new management of (when) the team falls again early in this year’s playoffs.  A lack of D and goaltending will do that.

EDM with McDavid and Draisaitl is only now making the playoffs consistently but aren’t a contender, but their rebuild took 15 years of high picks including 4 1st overall selections to now only sort of work. Ott, NJ (w 2 1st overall picks) and Det have made high picks for years now aren’t even close to playoff contention. 

Buffalo hasn’t reached the playoffs in a decade+, despite drafting in the top 8 for a decade including 2 1st overall and 2 2nd overall picks and we still don’t have any goaltending.  

The bottom line is the lottery has done nothing to prevent tanking despite ample evidence that tanking doesn’t work anyway.  All the lottery is an annual NHL game show to try drive some additional media attention.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It doesn’t stop it and it doesn’t matter in the end.  How many teams will sabotage their seasons next year to get Bedard ?  3 or 4? How is the lottery going to stop that?

Rebuilding is also a tradition in the NHL.  Every year bad teams trade away veteran talent for draft picks.  The draft lottery has done nothing to change that.  

Also the odds of getting a generational talent at the top of the draft are small.  McDavid, Crosby and Mathews are truly ok elite, but what of Hischier or Hall or Yakupov or RNH or Eric Johnson. None of these guys are generational talent.  Many others are excellent players but aren’t franchise changers like an Ekblad or even Dahlin. 

How many Cups have McDavid or Matthews even played for?  Getting a generational talent obviously doesn’t guarantee success.  It takes a team to contend and good management to build a team.

 It seems most “tanking” teams lack the management to right their ships.  Arizona has been a disaster franchise since day one.  Toronto hasn’t won a Cup since 1967 or a playoff series since 2004.  There is talk in Toronto of hiring new management of (when) the team falls again early in this year’s playoffs.  A lack of D and goaltending will do that.

EDM with McDavid and Draisaitl is only now making the playoffs consistently but aren’t a contender, but their rebuild took 15 years of high picks including 4 1st overall selections to now only sort of work. Ott, NJ (w 2 1st overall picks) and Det have made high picks for years now aren’t even close to playoff contention. 

Buffalo hasn’t reached the playoffs in a decade+, despite drafting in the top 8 for a decade including 2 1st overall and 2 2nd overall picks and we still don’t have any goaltending.  

The bottom line is the lottery has done nothing to prevent tanking despite ample evidence that tanking doesn’t work anyway.  All the lottery is an annual NHL game show to try drive some additional media attention.

Next year is going to be the tankiest of tanking. Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Dvosrsky, Yager, Benson. You basically just want to finish bottom 3 and coast to a great pick. 

That said, tanking only works if you draft well before and after you do it. Most teams at the bottom don't draft well and so 1 good pick doesn't offset their bad drafting. 

[SwampD]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Next year is going to be the tankiest of tanking. Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Dvosrsky, Yager, Benson. You basically just want to finish bottom 3 and coast to a great pick. 

That said, tanking only works if you draft well before and after you do it. Most teams at the bottom don't draft well and so 1 good pick doesn't offset their bad drafting. 

I don’t even know who you are anymore.

😂

[steveoath]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Next year is going to be the tankiest of tanking. Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Dvosrsky, Yager, Benson. You basically just want to finish bottom 3 and coast to a great pick. 

That said, tanking only works if you draft well before and after you do it. Most teams at the bottom don't draft well and so 1 good pick doesn't offset their bad drafting. 

Why do I feel like the pens will be going for a new face of franchise next year. 

[MattPie]

18 hours ago, Contempt said:

Well. Guys want jobs first and foremost.  They'd still be going back to jr or the NCAA except for the top few players and to sign one of those players those teams would forgo their ability to sign anyone else so those guy would still be motivated to sign somewhere. The slot and total pool limit would prevent teams from stockpiling and hoarding.  There could be other things you do to prevent shenanigans but teams wouldn't want to just sign one guy a year that often so they wouldn't max out that often.  If you did that a couple years in a row your whole system would be screwed. In order to acquire extra slots or extra cap you'd be trading away other assets and additionally weakening yourself.  Are some guys worth that? Maybe, and maybe that might happen every year to an extent, but it would be hard for one team to do it over and over again. How many years in a row could you have just one draft pick and be successful?  Even if that draft pick was McDavid or Matthews? You'd have nothing else.

You're presuming a top pick is going to require the most money. Sure, Matthews, but are the top guys going to say, "well, Buffalo (2011-2021) offered me $8, but Tampa Bay offered $5, I gotta go with Buffalo". Some of them will avoid bad teams no matter what the offer. Maybe if it was a straight bidding war with the player not involved...

But, I don't think the draft or lottery is that broken to begin with. It's relatively fair without massively encouraging tanking. Sure, tweak some of the parameters with percentages and max up/down movement, but otherwise it's not the worst thing in the world.

[pi2000]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

But for me, the lottery addresses I problem.  It works to combat blatant tanking like some teams were doing for McDavid.  Tanking in that manner is just an embarrassment for the league.  I guess we’ll see how well it works next season when Bedard is there for the tanking (pun intended).

Every league does it, it not's unique to the NHL.   

In fact, the most successful league in the world (NFL) has no draft lottery.

If a franchise is willing to risk alienating their fanbase for the right to draft #1 OA, then that's on them, and it's their right to do so.

Edited May 5, 2022 by pi2000

[Weave]

27 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Every league does it, it not's unique to the NHL.   

In fact, the most successful league in the world (NFL) has no draft lottery.

If a franchise is willing to risk alienating their fanbase for the right to draft #1 OA, then that's on them, and it's their right to do so.

The NHL and the NBA have shown quite clearly that they do not support the notion that it is OK for a team to choose to alienate their fanbase. 

The fine line they are trying to walk is, how do you effectively discourage the activity without upending the whole process?  They’re working on it.  It will be interesting to see how effectively the current rules discourage tanking.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Weave

[dudacek]

Personally, I'd get rid of it; It doesn't seem very effective in preventing tanking (the reason it allegedly exists) or encouraging parity (the reason the draft allegedly exists)

But drilling down to the essence of what @SDS said up thread: the NHL sells hope.

Does the lottery generally provide more hope or less/

I'd say more, so it will continue.

[PerreaultForever]

Well the Sabres blatantly tanked but we didn't get McDavid so doesn't that prove that it works?

I personally don't care if teams want to tank. That's between them and their fans, so I agree we should just give the top pick to the worst team. But the lottery's fine. Unlike the NFL where first rounders usually make the team and impact right away there's still skill and luck in drafting these prospects and top rated picks don't always become top players so it's a different thing entirely. 

[Curt]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Personally, I'd get rid of it; It doesn't seem very effective in preventing tanking (the reason it allegedly exists) or encouraging parity (the reason the draft allegedly exists)

But drilling down to the essence of what @SDS said up thread: the NHL sells hope.

Does the lottery generally provide more hope or less/

I'd say more, so it will continue.

Can you name some examples of teams that really tanked since the currentish form of the lottery was implemented?  I guess that would be the 2016 draft.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Can you name some examples of teams that really tanked since the currentish form of the lottery was implemented?  I guess that would be the 2016 draft.

Depends on how you define tanking I guess. At its essence, I think it's about that point where a switch flips and an organization is not actively trying to win.

If it's defined as being deliberately bad today in order to get better in the future it happens every year, although GMs usually wait until the deadline. Montreal and Philly tanked out the season after their seasons fell apart. Arizona entered the season tanking.

If you define it as finishing last at all costs, it's only ever happened twice IMO: Lemieux and McDavid.

 

[JohnnyK]

All non-playoff teams play a toilet bowl tournament with draft order determined by who wins is the first pick and so on...so bad teams make moves to win the non playoff draft race and stay competitive all year instead of tanking.

problem solved 

 

go Sabres

 

[Curt]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Depends on how you define tanking I guess. At its essence, I think it's about that point where a switch flips and an organization is not actively trying to win.

If it's defined as being deliberately bad today in order to get better in the future it happens every year, although GMs usually wait until the deadline. Montreal and Philly tanked out the season after their seasons fell apart. Arizona entered the season tanking.

If you define it as finishing last at all costs, it's only ever happened twice IMO: Lemieux and McDavid.

 

To me:  Your first definition is just called rebuilding.  Your second is tanking.  

[pi2000]

48 minutes ago, JohnnyK said:

All non-playoff teams play a toilet bowl tournament with draft order determined by who wins is the first pick and so on...so bad teams make moves to win the non playoff draft race and stay competitive all year instead of tanking.

problem solved 

 

go Sabres

 

So the best of the non-playoff teams gets the first pick? 

That makes absolutely no sense. 

Not all bad teams are intentionally bad... in fact, the vast majority of bad teams are not bad on purpose.

[Weave]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Depends on how you define tanking I guess. At its essence, I think it's about that point where a switch flips and an organization is not actively trying to win.

If it's defined as being deliberately bad today in order to get better in the future it happens every year, although GMs usually wait until the deadline. Montreal and Philly tanked out the season after their seasons fell apart. Arizona entered the season tanking.

If you define it as finishing last at all costs, it's only ever happened twice IMO: Lemieux and McDavid.

 

3 times.  Ottawa did it too for Daigle.

[dudacek]

35 minutes ago, Weave said:

3 times.  Ottawa did it too for Daigle.

I never perceived that.

Considered them a terrible expansion team with terrible management.

[French Collection]

I can’t remember the reason but I think it was a hockey card promotion that had Alexandre Daigle wearing different outfits, like this nursing one.
 

[5th line wingnutt]

The Gold Plan

[MattPie]

On 5/5/2022 at 6:01 PM, pi2000 said:

So the best of the non-playoff teams gets the first pick? 

That makes absolutely no sense. 

Not all bad teams are intentionally bad... in fact, the vast majority of bad teams are not bad on purpose.

You might even see bubble teams do a minor tank at the end of the season to miss the SC playoffs, but play in the TB tournament. That sounds crazy, but there are two pros for management: 1> You have a good shot at a really good pick. 2> the owner likely sees more home games if you expect to go well into the TB tourney vs. getting blown out the first round. The players and coach obviously won't be on-board, of course.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, 5th line wingnutt said:

The Gold Plan

I think this is probably the best idea around.  Still rewards the worst teams with high draft picks, but also disincentives tanking.