Vegas pick...do the Sabres want them to win the lottery this year?

[GASabresIUFAN]

48 minutes ago, Curt said:

Probably not.  Here is a draft pick market value chart that assigns value based on what NHL GMs have actually paid in trades.  I think it’s more useful for use to look at a chart based on market value as opposed to one based on actual draft pick results.

https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

@IKnowPhysics

I like this chart as well.  It’s usually pretty close.  There were three 2021 1st rd trades downs; 15 for 23, 48 & 138, 20 for 22 & 90, and 27 for 40 & 51.  The chart said 15 was worth 28.5 pts and they received 26.25 pts in return.  The chart says 20 was worth 22.4 pts and they got 21.1 in return.  Last 27 was worth 16.3 pts and they accepted 14.8 in return.  I’d say that’s pretty close.  If anything, it may over value the 1st rd picks slightly.

[IKnowPhysics]

6 minutes ago, SDS said:

10 years old with no data at the top of the draft. 🤔

Logical me:

Agreed, 100%.

 

 

Over-caffeinated, out-of-the-playoffs me:

Law & Order: SDS Fun Police over here

Let me get my pseudoscience on, mannn.

[SDS]

28 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Logical me:

Agreed, 100%.

 

 

Over-caffeinated, out-of-the-playoffs me:

Law & Order: SDS Fun Police over here

Let me get my pseudoscience on, mannn.

If that analysis holds for the last 10 years, and then go with it. But honestly, if the take away is that everyone overvalues the top of the draft because it’s never as good as it supposed to be, then the ROI means always trade down from the top.

[MattPie]

17 hours ago, SDS said:

If that analysis holds for the last 10 years, and then go with it. But honestly, if the take away is that everyone overvalues the top of the draft because it’s never as good as it supposed to be, then the ROI means always trade down from the top.

That's a great point. I don't think this analysis takes in the results from the picks, though, right? Just the pick trading. That'd be some interesting analysis to see if trading down from say 2 or 3 to a mid and late 1st (or whatever) has better chances to net a really good player than just picking and putting your money on the guy.

Wearing the hindsight-o-matic it's fun to speculate as to what trading our 2015 #2OA pick would have gotten. 😉

[steveoath]

On 5/6/2022 at 1:59 PM, LGR4GM said:

 

2 that get a lot of talk about generational. 

Wonder which one is the Eichel?

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Wonder which one is the Eichel?

Neither. More like Crosby and Ovechkin