Hot Tage takes worth talking about

[dudacek]

Tell me why these statements are wrong:

• Tage Thompson is a first-line centre.
• He is also the best non-ELC contract in the NHL.
• And he is a better player right now than Ryan O'Reilly.

[Doohicksie]

What I've noticed lately is that the way he uses his size is similar to how that one big kid on the peewee team does among the smaller kids.  Once he decides to exert his will he can pretty much do it.

I don't think he means to but it sometimes looks like he's toying with opposing players.

[GASabresIUFAN]

32 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Tell me why these statements are wrong:

• Tage Thompson is a first-line centre.
• He is also the best non-ELC contract in the NHL.
• And he is a better player right now than Ryan O'Reilly.

1) 1st line center - Not yet but very close.  Offensively this year certainly, but he needs to repeat for me to agree to that premise.

2) No on the contract as well but close.  Michael Bunting for the hated Leafs.  950K 63 pts. He also another year left at that price.  Anthony Deangelo as well. A 51 pt D for only $1 mill is a huge bargain.  To bad for Car he is an UFA after this season.

3) No not yet, but he maybe at least his equal offensively at this point.  ROR is still significantly better 2 way player. 

Edited April 27, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[ddaryl]

The guy blossomed overnight. Never in a million years would I have predicted such a breakout season this far into his career. I was pretty much giving up...

He is a big piece to the puzzle we didn't know we had 

[PerreaultForever]

The move to center was genius. He doesn't really hit people using that size but he's learned to really use that reach. His shot also seems more accurate this year. He's picking the corners and open spots rather than just shooting into the goalie as he did a lot the year before. Just a confidence thing maybe but it's working. Needs to work on his face off skills but otherwise he's become quite good indeed. 

[RochesterExpat]

What do we consider a 1st line center? A 1C that would be a 1C on more than half the teams in the league? Or just the minimum and someone better than Arizona's Hayton is now that he's their 1C (not to disparage him because he's got a future in the NHL for sure, but he is not a 1C yet)? 

If the latter we have arguably three different 1Cs on this team. If the former, TT is close but he needs to improve his two-way game before I think he makes that leap.

[dudacek]

In terms of offence, Tage is 15th in the NHL among centres in points in the 2nd half of the season (since Feb 1)

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

In terms of offence, Tage is 15th in the NHL among centres in points in the 2nd half of the season (since Feb 1)

If he can do it for a full year next year, will say he's a 1C.

But speaking as 1 who believes there's only ~10-15 TRUE #1's in the league, can't put him there yet.  Hope he gets there.  But no shame in being 1 of 3 (or dare we say 4?  Can dream/hope, right?) 2C's which they very well could have starting next year or the year after.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

3) No not yet, but he maybe at least his equal offensively at this point.  ROR is still significantly better 2 way player. 

Tage is significantly better offensively than ROR, who barely cracks the top 50 in centre scoring in the second half of the season despite being on one of the most explosive teams in the NHL. Tage produces despite getting the best checkers, unlike O'Reilly. Offensively, he's a driver and a danger in a way ROR has never been.

[nfreeman]

IMHO he's absolutely a 1st-line center.  I'm distinguishing between "franchise center" -- McD, Crosby, Malkin, Matthews, MacKinnon, Barkov, Eichel, etc -- and "1st-line center," which I think covers the franchise guys as well as the next 15 or so guys who, if one of them is your #1C, you aren't sitting there bemoaning your team's lack of a good #1 C.  TT can score it, he can pass it, he can skate, he can forecheck, he can kill penalties and he can close out games, and he's early in his development arc and is going to get better.

If he doesn't have the best non-ELC contract in the NHL, it's freaking close.

As for ROR, I wouldn't trade TT for ROR right now, but I don't think STL would trade ROR for TT either.

One more note on TT:  DM said on WGR this week, in response to a question about whether TT needs to improve his playmaking, that actually TT is an excellent playmaker and it's his linemates who need to improve their awareness and readiness to capitalize on TT's playmaking.

I agree that I'd sure like to see another year like this from TT before I proclaim him a true #1C, but I'm also sure looking forward to seeing what he can do next year, and I expect him to be really good again.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Tage is significantly better offensively than ROR, who barely cracks the top 50 in centre scoring in the second half of the season despite being on one of the most explosive teams in the NHL. Tage produces despite getting the best checkers, unlike O'Reilly. Offensively, he's a driver and a danger in a way ROR has never been.

That’s great for this year, but it has to be repeatable for TNT to be established as a No. 1 center or viewed to be as good as ROR.  ROR has had 6 20 goal plus seasons and 10 50+ point seasons.  Thompson’s had one. Until he does it again, it’s just a career year.  As we noted in other threads his 15% shooting % may be an aberration.  I hope not, but I’ve seen other players like Hall and Eichel breakout the same way and they haven’t played to that level since.

Edited April 27, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Stoner]

Playing loose with no pressure does wonders.

My automated response to all of these threads: see me in November.

[Weave]

Can anyone recall an example, Sabre or otherwise, of a center who exploded to 1st line numbers and not maintain it for a few seasons?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

Can anyone recall an example, Sabre or otherwise, of a center who exploded to 1st line numbers and not maintain it for a few seasons?

Karlsson?

[erickompositör72]

The exciting thing is, Tage may be better than the numbers he put up this season. He may be able to play multiple entire season at the pace he did since Feb. 1. I don't think that's far-fetched.

 

3 minutes ago, Weave said:

Can anyone recall an example, Sabre or otherwise, of a center who exploded to 1st line numbers and not maintain it for a few seasons?

 

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Karlsson?

Sounds like the exception that proves the rule (Weave's point)?

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

His shot also seems more accurate this year. He's picking the corners and open spots rather than just shooting into the goalie as he did a lot the year before.

I think that's a function of him learning how to find space on the ice to shoot from, which is enabled by him playing center and also he's matured a lot in his stickhandling.

[MattPie]

I'll play Team StormCloud for a moment. I hope I'm wrong.

TNT (and the Sabres) have a few things going for them right now (no data, I'm just going by board sentiment).

- No one in the east is fighting for their season nor has been for weeks; I'm not saying the entire East is coasting, but there's not that do or die in the West; it's more do or maybe get a different seeding

- The Sabres (I believe) are getting a parade of backups in net

- Teams may be taking the Sabres lightly based on record and earlier games this season; I'm sure the coaches are saying "this is not an easy win" but who knows if that gets through when you're not really fighting for the playoffs

- There isn't much tape on 40-ish-goal-scorer TNT, next year I could see teams game-planning for him

[Taro T]

38 minutes ago, Weave said:

Can anyone recall an example, Sabre or otherwise, of a center who exploded to 1st line numbers and not maintain it for a few seasons?

Bernie Nicholls.  Several good seasons surrounding 1 TRUE meteoric 1st Line C season.

And depending upon how you're defining "sustain" it, Jimmy Carson.

Would argue Ciccarelli fits the bill as well.

[dudacek]

43 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Karlsson?

Just to be clear on Karlsson's numbers prorated for the pandemic: 78, 56, 60, 58. Even post decline, those are still easy top 6 numbers.

And or the record ROR with the Sabres scored 60, 55 and 61 points.

 

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Bernie Nicholls.  Several good seasons surrounding 1 TRUE meteoric 1st Line C season.

And depending upon how you're defining "sustain" it, Jimmy Carson.

Would argue Ciccarelli fits the bill as well.

No one from the past 30. That’s probably a good sign.

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Bernie Nicholls.  Several good seasons surrounding 1 TRUE meteoric 1st Line C season.

And depending upon how you're defining "sustain" it, Jimmy Carson.

Would argue Ciccarelli fits the bill as well.

I get that Nicholls 150-point season was an aberration, but he topped a point per game 8 times.

He was a first line centre before that year. (And ironically was 1C playing 2C that year)

Alex Mogilny got 127 points out of nowhere at age 24 and never came close to that again.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I get that Nicholls 150-point season was an aberration, but he topped a point per game 8 times.

He was a first line centre before that year. (And ironically was 1C playing 2C that year)

Alex Mogilny got 127 points out of nowhere at age 24 and never came close to that again.

Not a center.  Doesn't count. 😉

 

[dudacek]

I think some of you are treating Tage as an established player having a possible blip, when the fact is he's a young player having a breakthrough. He's played less than 150 NHL games prior to this year.

Yes, he may never match these totals, but he wouldn't be alone in that and it wouldn't mean he's not a legitimate top 6 player.

• Thomas Vanek broke out with 84 points at 23, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy
• Derek Roy broke out with 81 points at 25, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy
• Jason Pominville broke out with 80 points at 25, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy

They all remained legit top 6 NHL players after their "blip".

[nfreeman]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think some of you are treating Tage as an established player having a possible blip, when the fact is he's a young player having a breakthrough. He's played less than 150 NHL games prior to this year.

Yes, he may never match these totals, but he wouldn't be alone in that and it wouldn't mean he's not a legitimate top 6 player.

• Thomas Vanek broke out with 84 points at 23, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy
• Derek Roy broke out with 81 points at 25, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy
• Jason Pominville broke out with 80 points at 25, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy

They all remained legit top 6 NHL players after their "blip".

I vehemently reject the Derek Roy comparable for all current Sabres except Mittlestadt.

[Curt]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think some of you are treating Tage as an established player having a possible blip, when the fact is he's a young player having a breakthrough. He's played less than 150 NHL games prior to this year.

Yes, he may never match these totals, but he wouldn't be alone in that and it wouldn't mean he's not a legitimate top 6 player.

• Thomas Vanek broke out with 84 points at 23, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy
• Derek Roy broke out with 81 points at 25, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy
• Jason Pominville broke out with 80 points at 25, he settled in as a 60-70 point guy

They all remained legit top 6 NHL players after their "blip".

They 3 examples of early career highs should come with a disclaimer.

(1) they were on an offensive juggernaut of a team those couple years

(2) they occurred in a window of time where NHL scoring was way way up for 2-3 years because they told the refs to call more penalties