Sabres have a good chance to finish with a winning record for the second half of the season. Exciting

[JujuFish]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Thanks.  Will stand corrected.  0.600 has worked every single time except 1 in the entire history of the league.  And that 1 time it didn't work came in the last year that every single established team was in the same conference, the sacrificial lamb in the SCFs from the other conference was on its way to bowing out of the Finals w/out a single game won in that round for the 4th time out of 4, & the league decided to put expansion Vancouver in the East with established Chicago swapping conferences to more or less ensure that fluke outcome never happened again.

And, the NHL 0.600's predictive power would've held had either the Habs or Rags picked up 1 less point over the 76 game schedule even with all that working against it.

🍺

Well, if you're going to discount that particular instance, then you might as well pick .586 as "the number that ACTUALLY matters" since all that still applies. Or even .590 for a rounder number.

Edited April 21, 2022 by JujuFish

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

Well, if you're going to discount that particular instance, then you might as well pick .586 as "the number that ACTUALLY matters" since all that still applies. Or even .590 for a rounder number.

How is 0.590 a rounder # than 0.600?

Going w/ 0.600 hasn't failed in the 3 point game era and, as you mention, is a nice round # which is fairly easy to look at throughout the season.  Played 5 games? Yep.  Got 6 points?  Yep.  You're on pace.  Nope.  Better pick it up.

Easy peazy.  😉

 

[JujuFish]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

How is 0.590 a rounder # than 0.600?

Going w/ 0.600 hasn't failed in the 3 point game era and, as you mention, is a nice round # which is fairly easy to look at throughout the season.  Played 5 games? Yep.  Got 6 points?  Yep.  You're on pace.  Nope.  Better pick it up.

Easy peazy.  😉

 

Rounder than .586, but I'm betting you knew that.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

Rounder than .586, but I'm betting you knew that.

And, expecting that you knew it was NHL 0.600 as the cutoff rather than NHL 0.58537 because it was easier as well and actually significantly easier than even your NHL 0.590.

Since the introduction of the 3 point game and NHL 0.500 no longer being a useful proxy for a good team, NHL 0.600 has always told us if a team was IN the playoffs and a good target goal for whether your team was playoff bound.  Get 6 points every 5 games (or 12 every 10) and you'll make the playoffs.  Miss that threshold & you might still make it, but you need help from others.  Reach the DeLuca 0.500 & you could very well still need help to make the playoffs.  Happens pretty much every year.

And again, thank you for pointing out the '70 Habs ending what at the time was the longest playoff qualification streak running by still getting to a record that SHOULD have gotten them in the dance.  (Knew they were way ahead of the threshold to get in were they in the West, heck, they'd've won the West; didn't realize they'd cleared 0.600)  Will be more careful w/ that 0.600 claim in the future.

[MattPie]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And, expecting that you knew it was NHL 0.600 as the cutoff rather than NHL 0.58537 because it was easier as well and actually significantly easier than even your NHL 0.590.

Since the introduction of the 3 point game and NHL 0.500 no longer being a useful proxy for a good team, NHL 0.600 has always told us if a team was IN the playoffs and a good target goal for whether your team was playoff bound.  Get 6 points every 5 games (or 12 every 10) and you'll make the playoffs.  Miss that threshold & you might still make it, but you need help from others.  Reach the DeLuca 0.500 & you could very well still need help to make the playoffs.  Happens pretty much every year.

And again, thank you for pointing out the '70 Habs ending what at the time was the longest playoff qualification streak running by still getting to a record that SHOULD have gotten them in the dance.  (Knew they were way ahead of the threshold to get in were they in the West, heck, they'd've won the West; didn't realize they'd cleared 0.600)  Will be more careful w/ that 0.600 claim in the future.

Few years back when I was doing the pace data analysis stuff every game, I think I used 0.580 as the "you're on the bubble" mark. Sure, you might not get in with 95-96 points but the vast majority of years you're in. I like 0.600 as "other than a freak season you're in".

#TeamNHL600 (and because it's the internet) #DeLuca500isforNazis 🙂

[JujuFish]

11 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And, expecting that you knew it was NHL 0.600 as the cutoff rather than NHL 0.58537 because it was easier as well and actually significantly easier than even your NHL 0.590.

Since the introduction of the 3 point game and NHL 0.500 no longer being a useful proxy for a good team, NHL 0.600 has always told us if a team was IN the playoffs and a good target goal for whether your team was playoff bound.  Get 6 points every 5 games (or 12 every 10) and you'll make the playoffs.  Miss that threshold & you might still make it, but you need help from others.  Reach the DeLuca 0.500 & you could very well still need help to make the playoffs.  Happens pretty much every year.

And again, thank you for pointing out the '70 Habs ending what at the time was the longest playoff qualification streak running by still getting to a record that SHOULD have gotten them in the dance.  (Knew they were way ahead of the threshold to get in were they in the West, heck, they'd've won the West; didn't realize they'd cleared 0.600)  Will be more careful w/ that 0.600 claim in the future.

It's all arbitrary. People that like to focus on wins instead of points can aim for 45 wins, which has never failed to make playoffs.

 

I don't really care; I mainly just like finding oddities (like the fact that a team actually *has* gone above 0.600 without playoffs, or how the 1925 Hamilton Tigers finished with the best record and lost 0 playoff games but were not the league champions (their players went on strike demanding an extra $200 due to the season being 6 games longer (the championship was forfeited to Montreal and the players were fined $200))).

[Archie Lee]

The 2nd half that the Sabres have had this year is the 2nd half that I have hoped for over many years now.  In the Eichel years, we never had a season that ended with more optimism than it began (the exception being perhaps Eichel's 1st year).

I did this quickly, so there might be a mistake or two in the #'s.  In the last 10 full 82 game seasons (going back to 2009-10 and excluding the two covid years and 12-13) there have been:

- *14 NHL teams that missed the playoffs with a DeLuca .500 record or better; and

- 14 teams that made the playoffs with a DeLuca .500 record or worse.

Of those 28 teams, 12 finished with precisely DeLuca .500 records and 6 of those made the playoffs and 6 did not.

DeLuca .500 might not get you in, but it will have you in the conversation.  It is the next step for the Sabres. Until we are at DeLuca .500 or very close to it over 82 games, the playoffs are not a possibility. 

(*This year, Vancouver is currently a game below DeLuca .500, so they could still finish DeLuca .500 or better and miss).

[PromoTheRobot]

From October 1 to 31 the Sabres were 5-2-1. .688 points% 8th in the NHL. 113-point pace.

From November 1 to February 28 the Sabres were 11-28-7. .315 points% 32nd in the NHL. 51-point pace.

Since March 1 the Sabres are 14-8-3. .620 points% 12th in the NHL. 102-point pace.

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by PromoTheRobot