Thompson’s Next Contract?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1) How much?

2) How long?

3) Sign him this summer or wait another season?

Has two years until unrestricted free agency, and one year left on his contract.  He also has arbitration rights. 

 

[klos1963]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

1) How much?

2) How long?

3) Sign him this summer or wait another season?

Has two years until unrestricted free agency, and one year left on his contract.  He also has arbitration rights. 

 

3.) sign him this summer , it will help reach the cap floor if necessary. Show of good faith to the rest of the team.  No idea how much , how long. Might as well get him to age 30.

[Digger]

I mentioned this in the comparison thread with Eichel.

He has one year left at $1.4M and then is a RFA with arbitration rights.  Is it better to sign him this off season or wait and to see if he can repeat again next year?  I'm not sure, but for the right amount I'd sign him, $5M x 5 great, $6M x 5 years good, $6.5M x 5 years okay but if he wants more than that? (then let's wait and see if he can repeat his performance.............remember the Skinner contract (not the same I know but still a contract that is difficult to trade).

I would also add the Adams has to predict the full core players salaries as they get good and need bigger contracts to see how they may project.  Fun job.  I'd love to listen in to those conversations.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Digger

[GASabresIUFAN]

43 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

3.) sign him this summer , it will help reach the cap floor if necessary. Show of good faith to the rest of the team.  No idea how much , how long. Might as well get him to age 30.

His new contract won’t start until 23/24 season.  It’s no help getting to next year’s cap.

[matter2003]

Sign him now before it goes up more next year

4 hours ago, Digger said:

I mentioned this in the comparison thread with Eichel.

He has one year left at $1.4M and then is a RFA with arbitration rights.  Is it better to sign him this off season or wait and to see if he can repeat again next year?  I'm not sure, but for the right amount I'd sign him, $5M x 5 great, $6M x 5 years good, $6.5M x 5 years okay but if he wants more than that? (then let's wait and see if he can repeat his performance.............remember the Skinner contract (not the same I know but still a contract that is difficult to trade).

I would also add the Adams has to predict the full core players salaries as they get good and need bigger contracts to see how they may project.  Fun job.  I'd love to listen in to those conversations.

Looks like all Skinner needed was a coach that wasn't a dumbass

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 hours ago, Digger said:

I mentioned this in the comparison thread with Eichel.

He has one year left at $1.4M and then is a RFA with arbitration rights.  Is it better to sign him this off season or wait and to see if he can repeat again next year?  I'm not sure, but for the right amount I'd sign him, $5M x 5 great, $6M x 5 years good, $6.5M x 5 years okay but if he wants more than that? (then let's wait and see if he can repeat his performance.............remember the Skinner contract (not the same I know but still a contract that is difficult to trade).

I would also add the Adams has to predict the full core players salaries as they get good and need bigger contracts to see how they may project.  Fun job.  I'd love to listen in to those conversations.

Any year's they sign him for with be UFA year except the first.  After this 60+ point season and 30+ goals, I think 6.5 is the starting point based on other contracts around the league.  Reinhart's finally 3 seasons in Buffalo were 65 pts, 50 (in 69 games or a 60 pt pace) and 40 pts with 25 goals (in 54 games (also a 60+ pt pace).  He signed with Florida for 3 years @ 6.5.  

[Zamboni]

Why does TNT’s wikapedia page still show him with a St. Louis Blues jersey? Does someone know how to change that? Same with Okposo’s. Outdated.

 

Anyway, he’ll be 25 in October. Would it be too much risk to go 7 years at 7 mil per? That way it’s not an obnoxious amount like Skinner‘s contract. And if TNT has down years, 7 mil. hurts but shouldn’t be crippling. 

[MattPie]

I looked last night. Significantly more than 50% of TNT's G, A, Points, etc. have come in the 76 games this season vs. the 130 games before. It's a huge breakout season, and he wouldn't be the first to regress after a big season in the NHL. Vanek never beat those 43 goals in 06-07; 40 once and 30+ twice for example. I'd be comfortable giving him market rate for a 25-30 goal guy if he'll take it, but even that feels like a risk. These decisions are how GMs make or break a team.

Edited April 19, 2022 by MattPie

[WhenWillItEnd66]

As much as TT boy is one of my faves, i would wait until we see if he continues next season. If he keeps it up, then i would reward him at the end of NEXT season. As much as some thought he had the talent to score like this, need to show it a bit more before i throw the cash at him.

On another note, the Sabres had the autograph helmet for a donation to Roswell i believe and TT is who i got. 

[dudacek]

43 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Why does TNT’s wikapedia page still show him with a St. Louis Blues jersey? Does someone know how to change that? Same with Okposo’s. Outdated.

 

Anyway, he’ll be 25 in October. Would it be too much risk to go 7 years at 7 mil per? That way it’s not an obnoxious amount like Skinner‘s contract. And if TNT has down years, 7 mil. hurts but shouldn’t be crippling. 

I would do this. He’s going to be a 60-point scorer for most of that deal.

[thewookie1]

I’d wait until midway through next season, we’ve been burned far too many times over the years. I want him to show us next year that this wasn’t a fluke and that he can be a Top 6 center who can put up 25G 35A or so every year.

[dudacek]

I don’t know how anyone has watched Tage play this year can consider it a fluke.

[thewookie1]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don’t know how anyone has watched Tage play this year can consider it a fluke.

William Karlsson, he to had a similar explosion when the 1C role was thrust on him but has never been anywhere near as good since. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

William Karlsson, he to had a similar explosion when the 1C role was thrust on him but has never been anywhere near as good since. 

While I don't think Tage's coming out party is a fluke, this does smell like a career year.   I do think he is a better player then Karlsson.  When I see a shooting % of 15% for a guy who has never come close to that number I see a regression of the horizon.

Take our friend Jack for example.  Jack is a career 10.5% shooter.  This season in LV he is at 10.4%.  In his 36 goal campaign he shot 15.9%  That's the only season he has ever been over 10.4%  

I'd wait and see next season if Tage can build on his accomplishments this season before entering a long-term deal.

[ubkev]

I like the baseball model of sign them as early as you can for as long as you can. I know hockey contracts are very different than baseball ones though. 

I'd still do it this year. Saves money long term when he pots 50 goals next year. 

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I don't think Tage's coming out party is a fluke, this does smell like a career year.   I do think he is a better player then Karlsson.  When I see a shooting % of 15% for a guy who has never come close to that number I see a regression of the horizon.

Take our friend Jack for example.  Jack is a career 10.5% shooter.  This season in LV he is at 10.4%.  In his 36 goal campaign he shot 15.9%  That's the only season he has ever been over 10.4%  

I'd wait and see next season if Tage can build on his accomplishments this season before entering a long-term deal.

This would be my concern as well. Also, I don't do anything over 6 years. The Dahlin's and Power's get the 8 year deals. 

[steveoath]

Tage was on the Athletic Hockey podcast yesterday. Good insights.

 28 min 30s in. But there is some Vegas bashing earlier for those that like that sort of things.

[Buffalonill]

   He needs to repeat it before they go long term 

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don’t know how anyone has watched Tage play this year can consider it a fluke.

As others have said, not so much a fluke as might it be a career year.

Would try to get him in on a 6 or 7 year deal based on an expectation of 25-30 goals & 60-65 points.  No idea as to whether Thompson would go for it, probably not.  In which case you roll the die and negotiate the LT deal next year once both sides have a 2 year sample of what Tage Thompson the C really is.

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

William Karlsson, he to had a similar explosion when the 1C role was thrust on him but has never been anywhere near as good since. 

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

As others have said, not so much a fluke as might it be a career year.

Would try to get him in on a 6 or 7 year deal based on an expectation of 25-30 goals & 60-65 points.  No idea as to whether Thompson would go for it, probably not.  In which case you roll the die and negotiate the LT deal next year once both sides have a 2 year sample of what Tage Thompson the C really is.

William Karlsson went from a 75-point guy to a 55-point guy, so if that’s what’s meant by fluke, then I can follow the logic.

My point was that it’s hard to watch what Tage does and how he does it and think that he’s not a legitimate top-6 player.

If you can sign him to a long-term deal befitting a 55-point scorer this summer I’d do it in a second because he is going to be at least that player and he could be more.

If he wants to be paid like a 75-point scorer, yes make him do this again first.

[sweetlou]

If I'm KA I go to him this summer and offer 6 years at $6 million.  This would be replacing the Okposo $6 million against the cap.  This would significantly help Buffalo in the long run if TT continues to be a 60-80 point player.

If Tage wants to take the risk and bet on himself then KA should wait until at least the midway point in next season to offer a bigger contract or longer term if he continues at his current scoring pace.  If he struggles then I wait until the offseason and becomes a RFA.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

If I'm KA I go to him this summer and offer 6 years at $6 million.  This would be replacing the Okposo $6 million against the cap.  This would significantly help Buffalo in the long run if TT continues to be a 60-80 point player.

If Tage wants to take the risk and bet on himself then KA should wait until at least the midway point in next season to offer a bigger contract or longer term if he continues at his current scoring pace.  If he struggles then I wait until the offseason and becomes a RFA.

I don’t think he’d take 6 for 6, but it’s possible.  36 mill is a lot of guaranteed money. 6 for 6.5 might get it done if KA was so inclined.  However, I hate paying up for a career year.  Skinner’s deal might have made me somewhat gun shy.

Tage is 24 with one year left on his current deal. I’m wondering if he might be better off signing a 3 year deal and then give himself another shot at a big contract when still in his prime at 28?

Edited April 20, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don’t think he’d take 6 for 6, but it’s possible.  36 mill is a lot of guaranteed money. 6 for 6.5 might get it done if KA was so inclined.  However, I hate paying up for a career year.  Skinner’s deal might have made me somewhat gun shy.

Tage is 24 with one year left on his current deal. I’m wondering if he might be better off signing a 3 year deal and then give himself another shot at a big contract when still in his prime at 28?

Hope people get the nuance here, but I don't think this is a career year as much as it is a breakthrough year.

I see it as similar to Eichel, Dahlin and Reinhart's 4th year: a season which sets the baseline for what we can generally expect from him going forward; even if he never matches it, he should be in the ballpark.

It not like he's an established 40-point guy who suddenly put up 60 in his 7th season. He lost a year to injury and has played less than 150 games before this season.

[RochesterExpat]

People seem to be forgetting the cap will go up again. We're not in a flat cap forever. Signing him for 6 @ 6.5 would be a good deal for Buffalo for a Top 6 player (assuming he continues to fill such a role) who gets 55+ points in a season (when balanced toward pucks in the net). If he matures into a PPG player then it's a steal. 

At some point you need to gamble on players. TT has been consistently good this season playing against top lines in the league. Should he regress, it won't be on the scale where paying him Okposo numbers when the cap is going to increase again is a bad thing. I understand reservations people have because Buffalo signed Skinner to an overpay with too much term (which, even then, at the time of expiry the contract won't be all that bad because the cap will go up), but you can't live forever in a bridge/'prove it' deal world. Say Buffalo signs him for 3 years at 5 million to bridge him to 27/28 and he continues to develop into a true 1C putting up PPG numbers, Buffalo could be looking at a massive hit to re-sign him when he's a pending UFA. It goes both ways, but it could be hurting more because the cap will have gone up in three years. GMs right now can play the "we don't know what the cap will be in three years" card. That ace-in-the-hole is going to go away sooner rather than later.

Sign him this offseason or early into next season. Lock him up for 6 years. Make a statement that you're done doing never-ending  short-term contracts. Sign VO for 4-5 years. The only player getting a bridge/short-term deal this off-season should be UPL (not counting Murray/R2/Biro or however those get handled).

[triumph_communes]

He isn’t going to regress. He isn’t going to be worse as he ages, he doesn’t use his speed or athleticism to succeed. It’s his stick handling and reach and those age well. Lock him up now for 8 years.