Portillo thinks the Sabres offer a great opportunity

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Right.  We want him to solve the problem but not solve it too well or for too long.

And he gets that.  (The solving it & not for too long.  Not sure that solving it too well is actually an issue.)  Whether he is adept enough and nimble enough after 2 years to successfully find that "bridge" to the bright future remains to be seen.  Past results on the goaltending front aren't encouraging, but results on others are.

Hoping he figures it out.  Will expect he can once he has.

[Carmel Corn]

10 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think you're right that if KA brings in a star goalie on, say, a 5-year deal, that would affect Levi's and Portillo's willingness to sign -- but I think it's pretty unlikely that KA would do so.  A 3-year deal for a non-star goalie, which I think is much more likely, shouldn't affect their decisions.

This makes sense to me as well from a salary cap standpoint.  We may be okay for a couple of seasons or so, but after that we're going to need cap space for retaining our young core.  A shorter-term contract for a decent netminder will hopefully not hurt us later.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think you're right that if KA brings in a star goalie on, say, a 5-year deal, that would affect Levi's and Portillo's willingness to sign -- but I think it's pretty unlikely that KA would do so.  A 3-year deal for a non-star goalie, which I think is much more likely, shouldn't affect their decisions.

Agree.  Really expect that the next starter (presuming he isn't Anderson) gets/is coming in on a deal w/ 2-3 years remaining. 

He likes UPL.  He gushes about the other 2.  He stills talks about not boxing young guys out. So, ...

[bunomatic]

KA has always maintained that if you don’t want to be here then we don’t want you. If either of these players is leaning to other teams figure it out fast and work out a deal to get back max value for said player. In the future maybe don’t go so heavy in the draft on players that ultimately have more control over their own destination than you do. I’m sure Adams will figure it out. Also fixing this teams reputation will have players tripping over themselves to be here. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by bunomatic

[Doohicksie]

41 minutes ago, Taro T said:

OK, thanks for the clarification.

Agree that the conversations with the prospects are going that way.

But disagree about the public statements.  He positively GUSHES about both college goalies (and UPL to an extent as well) and how bright the future looks for the goaltending.  For someone to so publicly state honestly is a core value of his (my use of the word core value, not his) and then flat out lie to the fans would destroy all his credibility IMHO.

So, when he says he expects Portillo wants to be a Sabre, at this point this kid will believe him.  Does that mean he absolutely will sign next year, no, but that doesn't mean Portillo nor Adams are lying now.

I think you've got it right.  I'm maybe a little cynical and think he can't pull it off.

[JustOneParade]

Lost in this analysis is the question of alternatives for the two goalies. Where are the other NHL opportunities with (1) relatively unfettered path to a starting job or at least significant playing time, and (2) an organization on the upswing? And I'm asking because I don't have a feel for that. Further, if they wait and become FA's, does the CBA keep the pay range for college kids entering the league pretty narrow so that $$$ offered isn't a deciding factor?

[MBD]

Plan on him not signing and go all-in on Levi.  

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Lost in this analysis is the question of alternatives for the two goalies. Where are the other NHL opportunities with (1) relatively unfettered path to a starting job or at least significant playing time, and (2) an organization on the upswing? And I'm asking because I don't have a feel for that. Further, if they wait and become FA's, does the CBA keep the pay range for college kids entering the league pretty narrow so that $$$ offered isn't a deciding factor?

Under the CBA, they cannot be offered more money.

Their decision will be based on comfort and opportunity.

I haven’t done the homework, and I am sure there will be competition, but the opportunity in Buffalo is huge. There is no one on a long-term contract standing in your way at any organizational level. Jobs are there for the taking.

Comfort is much harder to read. All we know is that the Sabres have preached an attractive culture and appear to be developing it, but there also exists that “Sabre stink” built from a decade of losing.

Personally, I think the relationships being built by Adams and his development team will be crucial when it comes time for these players to pick between Buffalo and a mystery box.

[Hank]

35 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Lost in this analysis is the question of alternatives for the two goalies. Where are the other NHL opportunities with (1) relatively unfettered path to a starting job or at least significant playing time, and (2) an organization on the upswing? And I'm asking because I don't have a feel for that. Further, if they wait and become FA's, does the CBA keep the pay range for college kids entering the league pretty narrow so that $$$ offered isn't a deciding factor?

(3) opportunity to choose where you will live and work, and (4) quality of life outside the rink. 

[Drag0nDan]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Only if he would prefer "lifestyle" to being in a hockey market/environment.

He chose to play in Sioux Falls & the Twin Cities.  Both of which are about as non-Irvine/ Los Angeles CA as you can get and are very much hockey markets.

He's from Irvine though.  

[Cage]

1 hour ago, bunomatic said:

KA has always maintained that if you don’t want to be here then we don’t want you. If either of these players is leaning to other teams figure it out fast and work out a deal to get back max value for said player. In the future maybe don’t go so heavy in the draft on players that ultimately have more control over their own destination than you do. I’m sure Adams will figure it out. Also fixing this teams reputation will have players tripping over themselves to be here. 

That last part is starting to happen.  This was from the latest NHL Power Rankings on The Athletic where the theme was "We found reasons to watch all 32 teams down the stretch"

(sorry, paid sub). https://theathletic.com/3251588/2022/04/15/nhl-power-rankings/

Despite the theme it generally remained brutal on the bottom teams as they struggle to find a reason to stay interested.  However the write-up on Sabres is as follows:

21.  Sabres

A reason to pay attention: The absolute best vibes in the league

Every year there’s one team in the league’s basement that’s hell-bent on playing spoiler down the stretch. This year, the Sabres are that team and they look like they’re having a lot of fun doing it. Since March, the team is a very respectable 11-8-3 and have been the most watchable Sabres team in over a decade. That’s progress!

Oh and there’s that Owen Power kid, too.

[jsb]

I'm going to throw some of my reality into this conversation:

1. Since Power joined the team and in the 3 of the 4 of them that Samuelsson played the highest TOI for the 3rd pairing D was 12:02. Yes they are basically getting 11-12 minutes a game
2. Has anyone seen any drop off in Dahlin's play since he went to the right side?? He's not moving back, we don't need 2 RHD, we need a bottom pair that will play the role of penalty killers and won't get rolled over when on the ice for 5v5
3. Johnson, Portillo and Levi although they have shown glimpses of being NHL players, have proved nothing yet. Right now the #1 reason to keep these guys in the organization is to continue to build depth in the system. Rochester possibly not making the playoffs should prove the need for additional depth.
4. With the top 4 defensemen currently playing at ages 19 thru 22, do we really need to spend a top 10 pick on a D-man?? Would we be better served using the last 2 picks of the top 40 we'll have on 1 or 2 and does it necessarily have to be a RHD, with Dahlin on the right side if the better option is a LHD, should we do that??
5. The biggest blunder KA could have done was sign a 32 game GK to a 4 year $20M contract with a NMC.
6. We're going to have $20M to spend to get to the CAP floor next year, we're going to get a vet GK to tide us over. The better one we get is all good. Until someone proves he's a NHL GK, who cares what they think. Portillo was a roommate of Power and good family friends with Dahlin, Levi has shown zero interest in not becoming a Sabre, he's on his own timeline, this will be his last year in college. Both of them leaving is believing in conspiracy theories IMO.

 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

He's from Irvine though.  

Yes, he is.  But rather than play in CA while waiting for a chance to play Div I at Arizona State, he chose to play at Sioux Falls while waiting to become a Golden Gopher at Minnesota.  He's shown that he sees value in playing in a hockey hotbed.  So, just because he grew up in Irvine, there is no reason, based upon his past history, to believe he would necessarily rather be near dear old dad over playing for Adams crew in wintry WNY.

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I think you're right that if KA brings in a star goalie on, say, a 5-year deal, that would affect Levi's and Portillo's willingness to sign -- but I think it's pretty unlikely that KA would do so.  A 3-year deal for a non-star goalie, which I think is much more likely, shouldn't affect their decisions.

I don't think that's true at all. 

First, I don't think it's about an open goalie job being there, it's about the team turning it around and investing in winning now. We start winning and competing and the culture is a positive one, he hears good things from Power or other people he knows, and then he will want to be part of it. That's the issue, not coming to a basement dweller and being stuck until his UFA status kicks in. 

All these guys have confidence in their abilities and think they can win a job in direct competition, and if it's a vet they respect they'll be glad for the opportunity to understudy. 

Also, signing that vet for 5 years is fine as long as you don't give him a no movement clause. Too many good kids in the system, trade him away in 2-3 years, or trade one of the kids (less appealing to me). You guys just aren't used to the idea of a team having too many good prospects. 

Bottom line, start winning and they all will want to come. That's all it'll take. 

[Digger]

I listened to the Adams interview and didn't feel that he shared anything new (at least from what I had been hearing).  This has been debated pretty well now.  It is what it is, and hopefully next year we have them all signed and ready to start playing in Rochester in hopes that they'll be Sabres someday.

I would like to hear an honest interview with all 3 (Portillo, Levi, Johnson) but I know most of what is said is pretty guarded and most likely coached by their advisors.

In contrast, if you look at the prospects playing in the CHL you don't see many of them turning down NHL contracts for that last chance to win the Memorial Cup as an over-age player.  They take the opportunity when it comes.  That can be a good thing and a bad thing of course.  Good for the NHL team if they develop and make the NHL but maybe not so much for the player if they don't make the NHL (but they still get the life experience).

[Marvin]

8 hours ago, JustOneParade said:

Lost in this analysis is the question of alternatives for the two goalies. Where are the other NHL opportunities with (1) relatively unfettered path to a starting job or at least significant playing time, and (2) an organization on the upswing? And I'm asking because I don't have a feel for that. Further, if they wait and become FA's, does the CBA keep the pay range for college kids entering the league pretty narrow so that $$$ offered isn't a deciding factor?

Welcome back!

8 hours ago, MBD said:

Plan on him not signing and go all-in on Levi.  

Welcome back!

[Marvin]

7 hours ago, Hank said:

(3) opportunity to choose where you will live and work, and (4) quality of life outside the rink. 

Welcome back!

[Mr. Allen]

47 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Welcome back!

Ok.  What is this?

[nfreeman]

20 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't think that's true at all. 

First, I don't think it's about an open goalie job being there, it's about the team turning it around and investing in winning now. We start winning and competing and the culture is a positive one, he hears good things from Power or other people he knows, and then he will want to be part of it. That's the issue, not coming to a basement dweller and being stuck until his UFA status kicks in. 

All these guys have confidence in their abilities and think they can win a job in direct competition, and if it's a vet they respect they'll be glad for the opportunity to understudy. 

Also, signing that vet for 5 years is fine as long as you don't give him a no movement clause. Too many good kids in the system, trade him away in 2-3 years, or trade one of the kids (less appealing to me). You guys just aren't used to the idea of a team having too many good prospects. 

Bottom line, start winning and they all will want to come. That's all it'll take. 

I agree with most of this, but I think the goalie position is a bit different (as it is in many other respects).  There is only one starting goalie slot, while there are at least 9 high-usage forward slots and at least 4 high-usage D slots.  A good NCAA forward or defenseman weighing his NHL options knows he has many more possibilities to force his way into a lineup than a goalie does.  So while I agree with you that an NCAA player will be attracted to a strong, professionally run, winning franchise, I also think that factor will be less important, and an open slot will be more important, for a goalie than for a F or a D.

It's also worth noting that an NCAA player who can become a UFA may be able to choose among multiple strong franchises -- i.e. not just between a strong franchise and a lousy one -- and in that situation an open slot would probably play a bigger role in the decision.  Wouldn't Portillo be more inclined towards, say, Washington than towards Florida?

[pi2000]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with most of this, but I think the goalie position is a bit different (as it is in many other respects).  There is only one starting goalie slot, while there are at least 9 high-usage forward slots and at least 4 high-usage D slots.  A good NCAA forward or defenseman weighing his NHL options knows he has many more possibilities to force his way into a lineup than a goalie does.  So while I agree with you that an NCAA player will be attracted to a strong, professionally run, winning franchise, I also think that factor will be less important, and an open slot will be more important, for a goalie than for a F or a D.

It's also worth noting that an NCAA player who can become a UFA may be able to choose among multiple strong franchises -- i.e. not just between a strong franchise and a lousy one -- and in that situation an open slot would probably play a bigger role in the decision.  Wouldn't Portillo be more inclined towards, say, Washington than towards Florida?

If history is a guide, what moved the needle for Cal Peterson in choosing LA over BUF was their goalie coaches and history of goaltender development.

I don't know how Buffalo currently compares to other franchises, but if they fixed that issue, then I'm not terribly concerned about him leaving. 

[MBD]

My hunch is he's scared/wary of Levi and sees the club has a preference for him.  And as a result, he'll be an UFA next year.

[pi2000]

7 minutes ago, MBD said:

My hunch is he's scared/wary of Levi and sees the club has a preference for him.  And as a result, he'll be an UFA next year.

If he's scared of competition (which I doubt) then buh-bye 👋🏻.

[nfreeman]

34 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

If history is a guide, what moved the needle for Cal Peterson in choosing LA over BUF was their goalie coaches and history of goaltender development.

I don't know how Buffalo currently compares to other franchises, but if they fixed that issue, then I'm not terribly concerned about him leaving. 

Did Petersen say this?  It seems fairly likely that he was more interested in avoiding the poopshow that the Sabres had become by 2017 (Petersen signed in LA a couple of months after DDB and GMTM were canned, which happened at the end of the Sabres' 6th straight season with no playoffs).

[pi2000]

51 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Did Petersen say this?  It seems fairly likely that he was more interested in avoiding the poopshow that the Sabres had become by 2017 (Petersen signed in LA a couple of months after DDB and GMTM were canned, which happened at the end of the Sabres' 6th straight season with no playoffs).

Yes, he was interviewed about his decision to sign with LA and said he felt they had offered a better goaltender development program and coaching.

 

[MBD]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

If he's scared of competition (which I doubt) then buh-bye 👋🏻.

I don't know Portillo's true motivations for returning to school, but since he decided not to come out this year, and Levi will likely sign next year, it will be up to the Sabres to decide who plays in Rochester and who plays in Cincy for the 2023-2024 season.  By all appearances, Levi is the golden child so he likely gets Rochester.  Why would Portillo sign with the Sabres if he can be an UFA a few months later?  I've heard the "burn a year of his ELC" argument, but if it's a matter of being stuck behind another prospect for a year anyway, someone you may not unseat, is that really much of a motivating factor, especially when you can sign with someone more of your liking?