Offseason Gameplan 2022 - Solving the goaltending system wide.

[dudacek]

I mentioned above that Karmanos seemed to be hinting at UPL back to Rochester next year.

In the latest Yerdon/Lysowski podcast Lance explicitly states he’s been told the Sabres are preparing for exactly that. Even if Anderson is back, it will be for 25 or 30 games and the Sabres are going to go out and “get a starter.”

Best news/rumour of the off-season so far, as far as I’m concerned.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I mentioned above that Karmanos seemed to be hinting at UPL back to Rochester next year.

In the latest Yerdon/Lysowski podcast Lance explicitly states he’s been told the Sabres are preparing for exactly that. Even if Anderson is back, it will be for 25 or 30 games and the Sabres are going to go out and “get a starter.”

Best news/rumour of the off-season so far, as far as I’m concerned.

Yeah!

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I mentioned above that Karmanos seemed to be hinting at UPL back to Rochester next year.

In the latest Yerdon/Lysowski podcast Lance explicitly states he’s been told the Sabres are preparing for exactly that. Even if Anderson is back, it will be for 25 or 30 games and the Sabres are going to go out and “get a starter.”

Best news/rumour of the off-season so far, as far as I’m concerned.

Makes sense to slow cook him due to his frequent injuries. He needs to prove that he can survive a season without missing substantial time while maintaining good numbers. Hell one of the reasons I was against signing Ullmark was for his availability being questionable. 

[Huckleberry]

Besides Vasilylevsky and Shesterkin there really isn't any goalie looking good in the playoffs.

[LabattBlue]

Any interest goalie prospects rounds 2-4?   I really like the idea of drafting a goalie every year…even if it is a 7th round flyer from Obscurityvakia.  

[RochesterExpat]

19 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Any interest goalie prospects rounds 2-4?   I really like the idea of drafting a goalie every year…even if it is a 7th round flyer from Obscurityvakia.  

Tyler Brennan - 6'4" Canadian playing in the WHL and doing OK on a terrible team.

Topias Leinonen - 6'5" Finn who I don't understand why he is ranked as high as he is because he's slow to react and just stops pucks by being, well, 6'5".

Ivan Zhigalov - 6'3" Belarussian currently playing in the QMJHL and doing OK.

I believe those goalies will go between rounds 2 and 4, but none are putting up stellar numbers in their respective leagues and I think are ranked there entirely based on size. It's also possible that Hugo Havelid (5'10" Swede) is drafted in that range because of his play during the WJC-18, but he's a small goalie and the NHL doesn't like small goalies.

So to answer your question: no. There's really not any interesting goalie prospects in rounds 2-4 this year (in my opinion anyway).

Speaking of 7th round flyers from Obscurityvakia... I really want Buffalo to throw a 6/7th round flyer on Maxim Mayorov. Speaking of size, he's a 6'5" goalie who plays athletically and with good positioning. If he wasn't Russian playing in the MHL he'd be going higher than the 6th/7th round.

Edited June 2, 2022 by RochesterExpat

[DarthEbriate]

19 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Any interest goalie prospects rounds 2-4?   I really like the idea of drafting a goalie every year…even if it is a 7th round flyer from Obscurityvakia.  

If a planet country does not appear in our records, it does not exist.

I subscribe to the goalie-every-other-year (unless one knocks your socks off) draft policy. There are only so many contract spots available.

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Besides ………. and Shesterkin there really isn't any goalie looking good in the playoffs.

Fixed

[Flashsabre]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fixed

Give me a break. Vasilevskiy has a rough game one and that is it? He did nothing to get them by the Leafs and Panthers?

[sabresparaavida]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fixed

Vasilevsky, despite a rough game last night, still has a .923 save percentage, and a 2.53 gaa. 
That save percentage would have been good for 3rd in the regular season.

[sabresparaavida]

26 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

If a planet country does not appear in our records, it does not exist.

I subscribe to the goalie-every-other-year (unless one knocks your socks off) draft policy. There are only so many contract spots available.

There are only so many contract spots available, but any player drafted in that spot could eventually take one of those contract spots, so I’m not sure why this is an argument? I think a goalie a year is pretty valid personally, not every one will be good enough for a contract as goalies are pretty tough to predict, and things will balance themselves out. And if you have too many quality goalie prospects, you can always trade one or their rights.

[DarthEbriate]

48 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

There are only so many contract spots available, but any player drafted in that spot could eventually take one of those contract spots, so I’m not sure why this is an argument? I think a goalie a year is pretty valid personally, not every one will be good enough for a contract as goalies are pretty tough to predict, and things will balance themselves out. And if you have too many quality goalie prospects, you can always trade one or their rights.

Contract spots and playing time. I don't want to end up with 2 goalies still on 3-year ELC deals down in Cincinnati without trade value because I felt good about them the previous years and now they've been supplanted by a new pick/someone coming up from NCAA/Europe to Rochester. Every other year keeps a full pipeline as long as I find one NHL-caliber goalie that I re-sign his RFA years.

Now -- all this to say, the Sabres have nothing in the pipeline beyond UPL right now (Levi and Portillo aren't even on ELCs yet). If there's ever a stretch to draft 2 goalies in the same draft or to do a back-to-back this year and next with the surplus of picks... now's the time.

[sabresparaavida]

4 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Contract spots and playing time. I don't want to end up with 2 goalies still on 3-year ELC deals down in Cincinnati without trade value because I felt good about them the previous years and now they've been supplanted by a new pick/someone coming up from NCAA/Europe to Rochester. Every other year keeps a full pipeline as long as I find one NHL-caliber goalie that I re-sign his RFA years.

Now -- all this to say, the Sabres have nothing in the pipeline beyond UPL right now (Levi and Portillo aren't even on ELCs yet). If there's ever a stretch to draft 2 goalies in the same draft or to do a back-to-back this year and next with the surplus of picks... now's the time.

I don’t have a problem with competition at the goalie spot. An older prospect is getting beaten out by a younger one? Good, we will have a better system overall. Most of these goalies cook for 2-3 years in juniors/Europe/NCAA before signing anyway, so if we had 2 young goalies in the AHL right now, and drafted one this year, by the time he’s ready for the AHL we should have an idea if the others have a shot at the NHL or not.

[sabresparaavida]

The success rate for goalies (data from drafts between 2000-2009, success defined as playing 100 games which might be a little high for goalies) is only 21.1%

if you draft 3 goalies, there’s about a 50% chance none of them will be a successful goalie. With how long goalies take to develop, I’d rather we keep drafting one about every year, so that there’s a high likelihood of having a future NHL goalie in the system.

[NAF]

Adams needs to take advantage of this -- eat bad contracts for picks and prospects. Ideally these bad contracts are veterans who can also lead the young guys.

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, NAF said:

Adams needs to take advantage of this -- eat bad contracts for picks and prospects. Ideally these bad contracts are veterans who can also lead the young guys.

Anybody specific in mind? 

[sabresparaavida]

12 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Anybody specific in mind? 

I would see if Toronto would send a first with Mrazek for our 2nd, then I’d just stash him in the AHL to backup UPL.

[NAF]

16 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Anybody specific in mind? 

Unfortunately most of them have NTC/NMCs.

1. Lucic, contingent on him waiving NTC. CGY will need cap space if they want to keep Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

2. Monahan? I don't even really know what the deal is with him anymore

3. Nick Foligno if he waives.

4. Brady Skjei? I've heard Carolina has been unhappy with his advanced metrics.

5. Colton Sissons if Nashville wants to re-sign Forsberg.

6. Cizikas, Bailey -- any old dude from the Isles.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, NAF said:

Unfortunately most of them have NTC/NMCs.

1. Lucic, contingent on him waiving NTC. CGY will need cap space if they want to keep Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

2. Monahan? I don't even really know what the deal is with him anymore

3. Nick Foligno if he waives.

4. Brady Skjei? I've heard Carolina has been unhappy with his advanced metrics.

5. Colton Sissons if Nashville wants to re-sign Forsberg.

6. Cizikas, Bailey -- any old dude from the Isles.

 

Lucic 1x5.25mil NTC -- I never want him in Buffalo after what he did to Miller

Monahan 1x6.375mil M-NTC -- Multiple leg injuries and surgeries have left him a shell of a player

N. Foligno 1x3.8mil - M-NTC -- Has slowed down fiercely these past two years

Skjei 2x5.25mil M-NTC -- If his analytics are bad with that D group then I want nothing to do with him

Sissons 4x2.857mil -- 4th liner; he's literally Girgensons production wise if not slightly less

Bailey 2x5mil  -- 3rd line winger

Cizikas 5x2.5mil  -- Way too long of a contract 

Clutterbuck 2x1.75mil  -- Old man 1

Martin 2x1.5mil -- Old man 2

 

[Flashsabre]

4 hours ago, NAF said:

Adams needs to take advantage of this -- eat bad contracts for picks and prospects. Ideally these bad contracts are veterans who can also lead the young guys.

Two things though:

1) How much money has Pegula authorizes Adams to spend. Maybe he can’t go much past the floor

2) I don’t want cap dumps coming on that can play. The team has great chemistry  and a good culture now, those guys mess it up. If it is someone like Weber that can’t play and Montreal gives you good assets to take the contract fine but not some guy that will come in and take ice time from younger guys.

I have no problem trading for a guy with salary if he is a good player and fits with the culture but hard no to the Lucics and Monahans of the world.

Edited June 3, 2022 by Flashsabre

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Two things though:

1) How much money has Pegula authorizes Adams to spend. Maybe he can’t go much past the floor

2) I don’t want cap dumps coming on that can play. The team has great chemistry  and a good culture now, those guys mess it up. If it is someone like Weber that can’t play and Montreal gives you good assets to take the contract fine but not some guy that will come in and take ice time from younger guys.

I have no problem trading for a guy with salary if he is a good player and fits with the culture but hard no to the Lucics and Monahans of the world.

Really expect that ownership has told Adams he can spend what he wants but it has to fit in with the plan they were sold last year.  Which means there isn't much likelihood they'll be breaking the bank this year as any big $ deals need to either be short term (1-2 years) or they need to luck into the perfect storm of an O'Reilly level player being on the market & him wanting to be a part of what the Sabres are building.

Agree that any cap dumps that are brought in should be penciled in for LTIR or Ra-cha-cha.  If they're truly a cap dump, then they are only coming in to convert cap space which is an expiring asset into something that has value beyond this season.

Still disappointed that Adams couldn't convert more of last year's cap space into something that still has value.  Though prefer that he still has ridiculous amounts of flexibility to pay whichever guys currently here show they deserve it to having burned some of his cap space for '23 and beyond.

The easy pieces of the rebuild are done - tearing down & maintaining flexibility moving forward.  Now the tough part of the job starts.  Using that flexibility wisely to assemble a team that can truly compete for years to come.  Adams now needs to do what Murray said he'd do but was never quite able to do: figure out what guys really will project out to be and trade those that aren't going to come close to reaching the lofty ceilings that were possible when they were brought into the organization.  Which is way easier said than done, but if the analytics & development departments are as good as they've been billed to be, it's something he should be able to do more often than not.

We'll know management has reached that stage where they're comfortable in their evaluations of what their guys really are when some of them get shown the door.  Right now, everything's potential; but it needs to become tangible.

[PerreaultForever]

20 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

The success rate for goalies (data from drafts between 2000-2009, success defined as playing 100 games which might be a little high for goalies) is only 21.1%

if you draft 3 goalies, there’s about a 50% chance none of them will be a successful goalie. With how long goalies take to develop, I’d rather we keep drafting one about every year, so that there’s a high likelihood of having a future NHL goalie in the system.

Which is why I stick to my mantra of draft one every single year. They have unique and unusual development curves and even late picks, you just never know and can't have too many. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, NAF said:

Adams needs to take advantage of this -- eat bad contracts for picks and prospects. Ideally these bad contracts are veterans who can also lead the young guys.

The problem I have with this is what do you do with these veterans and their "bad contracts". Lead the young guys sounds good but if these are guys teams want to dump they obviously don't have a lot of value in those team's eyes. After having cleaned out and fixed this locker room do we want it filled with mercenary stiffs who don't give a damn while they cash their cheques? You'd have to be really careful with who you brought in. Risky. 

maybe just overpay a goalie and 1 or 2 key free agents is a better plan. 

[sabresparaavida]

21 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

The problem I have with this is what do you do with these veterans and their "bad contracts". Lead the young guys sounds good but if these are guys teams want to dump they obviously don't have a lot of value in those team's eyes. After having cleaned out and fixed this locker room do we want it filled with mercenary stiffs who don't give a damn while they cash their cheques? You'd have to be really careful with who you brought in. Risky. 

maybe just overpay a goalie and 1 or 2 key free agents is a better plan. 

Yeah, this is the tough part. The more I think about it, the best fit for this might be Monahan, though he does have a M-NTC. He is costing the flames 6 mil in cap. The Flames have 26 million in cap, but Tkachuk, Gadreau, and Mangiapane all need new deals which would eat up about 25 million if they were to re-sign all three, and then they would still need to fill 8 roster spots.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Anybody specific in mind? 

While this is technically true, we aren't spending anywhere near the cap ceiling.  It also doesn't include Quinn, JJP, Samuelsson, Krebs and Fitz in the calculation. 

The real numbers is 17 contracts @ 43,607,997 plus bonuses in the ELC  (12 Forwards and 5D).  KA has about 19 mill to spend to get to the cap floor.  

KA wants to have room to keep and pay his core players. Asplund, Cozens, Samuelsson and Thompson are all RFAs after next seasons, and Mitts, Krebs, Dahlin, Power and Joki the season after.  Cozens, Krebs, Samuelsson and Power are RFAs without arbitration rights. Also leaders Girgensons and KO are UFAs after next season.  KA is going to have to keep some serious powder dry.

I'd be really really surprised if KA spends more than 65 mill this coming season.