Offseason Gameplan 2022 - Solving the goaltending system wide.

[dudacek]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I'm sorry, are you saying we should trade Portillo and the Florida 1st for John Gibson?

Not exactly. Two separate thoughts.

i am saying those are assets I would explore trading in order to solve our goaltending problems.

I am also saying Gibson is a goalie I have interest in.

I would hope the price on Gibson is lower than that given his recent play and his contract.

[LGR4GM]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Which is why I think he might be a good reclamation project because he’s talented, we have cap space and the purchase price might not be huge. Your mileage may vary.

Your post though supports my earlier one: I’m not sure that there are any goalies out there who check the boxes of affordable, available, short-term and good. It’s pick your wart.

Please stop. John Gibson hasn't even been a decent starter in 4 years, he isn't going to suddenly "reclaim" that form and skill. 

OMFG the guy is signed for 5, yes FIVE more years at 6.4million. I would rather play UPL than trade assets for John Gibson and his M-NTC at 6.4mil for the next 5 seasons. 

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not exactly. Two separate thoughts.

i am saying those are assets I would explore trading in order to solve our goaltending problems.

I am also saying Gibson is a goalie I have interest in.

I would hope the price on Gibson is lower than that given his recent play and his contract.

That's honestly concerning because John Gibson hasn't been good in 4 years and is only getting older. His contract sucks too and is for at least 2 years to long. UPL has a better NHL sv% in his 9 games than Gibson has had since 2018. I would rather jump into lake erie in March than trade a moldy pizza log for John Gibson.

[LGR4GM]

Honestly overpaying Fluery is the best idea in this thread currently. The other options literally sound like Bills fans talking about how AJ McCarron was going to be good for us because he won a natty in college. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Please stop. John Gibson hasn't even been a decent starter in 4 years, he isn't going to suddenly "reclaim" that form and skill. 

OMFG the guy is signed for 5, yes FIVE more years at 6.4million. I would rather play UPL than trade assets for John Gibson and his M-NTC at 6.4mil for the next 5 seasons. 

That's honestly concerning because John Gibson hasn't been good in 4 years and is only getting older. His contract sucks too and is for at least 2 years to long. UPL has a better NHL sv% in his 9 games than Gibson has had since 2018. I would rather jump into lake erie in March than trade a moldy pizza log for John Gibson.

You make me smile.

But I still like Gibson. I'd even sacrifice two pizza logs.

[LGR4GM]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You make me smile.

But I still like Gibson. I'd even sacrifice two pizza logs.

Idk why you like Gibson, he's not good and hasn't been in close to half a decade. He hasn't had a positive GSAA since 2018/19. Since 2017/18 his ev sv% has decreased every single year from a high of .927/.928 down to .903

He is not good and will not be good suddenly. He has 5 more years on his contract and a M-NTC meaning you get his full cap for 5 years with almost no way to trade him. He might be one of the least attractive goalie options available in the entire NHL. 

Edited April 12, 2022 by LGR4GM

[Marvin]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm sorry, are you saying we should trade Portillo and the Florida 1st for John Gibson?

Feel like you undercut your own argument at the end. UPL isn't good yet you argue that UPL is Ullmark like and we should have signed Ullmark. 

What if, both aren't that good?

Clarification: UPL's play in Buffalo last season was often Ullmark-like.  My hope is that he can be Ullmark-like more consistently and grow from there.  But UPL has not been as consistently so-so as Ullmark at the NHL level for a significant stretch yet, so I am very leery of expecting him to become even that next season for, say, 35 games.

Honestly, I think UPL's ceiling is about Ullmark's play now, but he is currently well short of that.  Thus, at best, UPL would be a short-term solution until, hopefully, one of Levi or Portillo grabs the top role.  Just as I think Ullmark would have been in Buffalo.  And if Ullmark were here, we would be better, but still marking time.

If you are a Bills fan, think Tyrod Taylor as Bills QB until we got Josh Allen.  I had Ullmark pegged as Tyrod and UPL as E.J. Manuel and then Nathan Peterman.  I am waiting for UPL to get to Tyrod Taylor level and we don't have a young Tyrod Taylor in the system.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Marvin, Sabres Fan

[sabresparaavida]

My plan:

overpay MAF or Kruemper as much as it takes to get them here on a 1-2 year deal. 
Sign an Anderson/Tokarski level guy to battle with UPL for the backup spot/who starts in Rochester. Sign Drayden McKay for Rochester, and add a decent goalie with potential to the system.

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Clarification: UPL's play in Buffalo last season was often Ullmark-like.  My hope is that he can be Ullmark-like more consistently and grow from there.  But UPL has not been as consistently so-so as Ullmark at the NHL level for a significant stretch yet, so I am very leery of expecting him to become even that next season for, say, 35 games.

Honestly, I think UPL's ceiling is about Ullmark's play now, but he is currently well short of that.  Thus, at best, UPL would be a short-term solution until, hopefully, one of Levi or Portillo grabs the top role.  Just as I think Ullmark would have been in Buffalo.  And if Ullmark were here, we would be better, but still marking time.

If you are a Bills fan, think Tyrod Taylor as Bills QB until we got Josh Allen.  I had Ullmark pegged as Tyrod and UPL as E.J. Manuel and then Nathan Peterman.  I am waiting for UPL to get to Tyrod Taylor level and we don't have a young Tyrod Taylor in the system.

And right there is the problem. Tyrod Taylor was a middling QB who wasn't winning you anything. Ullmark is a middling GT that isn't winning you anything. 

Sometimes you need to pass on the meh things to get to the better things. 

[nfreeman]

Kuemper turns 32 next month.  He’s going to be looking for a 5-6 year deal.  KA isn’t going to offer that kind of contract.  

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk why you like Gibson, he's not good and hasn't been in close to half a decade. He hasn't had a positive GSAA since 2018/19. Since 2017/18 his ev sv% has decreased every single year from a high of .927/.928 down to .903 and his quality start % is .490 meaning half of his starts suck. 

He is not good and will not be good suddenly. He has 5 more years on his contract and a M-NTC meaning you get his full cap for 5 years with almost no way to trade him. He might be one of the least attractive goalie options available in the entire NHL. 

Your opinion makes sense if you believe Gibson will never be better than he is today and is likely to get worse.

That's not my opinion.

I think he's as or more talented than the vast majority of goalies in the NHL. He is still only 28 and has plenty of life left athletically. His past 3 years (not 5) have been  mediocre not terrible. Gibson at his worst is better than Craig Anderson is right now. The contract is meaningless to the Sabres for the next 2 years at least and really dovetails quite nicely to the time when Levi will have to get paid.

I think he's a candidate to be a legitimate #1 goalie who might be available at a buy-low price. I remember Carey Price and Fleury going through mid-career lulls when they were the subject of posts like yours and they bounced back fine. I think Gibson is in a rut and needs to be jolted out of it. I'd be betting that Donnie and the kids will invigorate him the way they've invigorated Anderson.

Yes, there is risk. But there is also potential reward, which I'm not seeing with any of the other options being discussed, with the exception of Fleury. I'm sick of stopgaps and I want someone who has the potential to be more.

The Sabres would need to do their homework on his headspace. But I bet on talent if the character is there.

[Pimlach]

22 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

FYI: Quick wants to stay in LA.    The Sabres are certainly on Varlamov's NTL.  I would prefer Dell AND Houser as our goaltending tandem over having Georgiev as our #1.  Samsonov is Tokarski behind a good team.  I can't imagine Fleury coming to Buffalo.  You would need double the salary and term that Ullmark has now in Boston to get the UFA's you listed.  Given the situations in Toronto, Edmonton, Las Vegas, etc., if I were a GM with a good goaltender to trade, Buffalo has to start with 2 of Buffalo's 1st in 2022, Power, and Dahlin plus a very good sweetener (Quinn or better) before I even consider a counter-offer.

Marv, you are a good guy but this is not one of your best takes.   

KA has a problem but he has money, lots of cap space, and some draft picks.  He does not have to, nor should he, offer any combination trade that includes Dahlin, Power and Quinn.  

I think he can find an NHL goalie to share the net with UPL next year.  The Hellebuyk dream posts would be great.   It is time to see if UPL can play.  He is not too young anymore.  I would like to keep Anderson as a #3 for insurance, probably not as a 1B/2.  

He can sign a combo of: Toker/ Suban/ Dell/ Howser/ or a new acquisition for the minor league rolls.  Only downside is no legit prospect in Rochester will Portillo in college.  I have been very vocal about the goaltending on this team.   Time to pay the price for past procrastination.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

This Gibson discussion clearly illustrates the problems facing KA this summer.  Who is the right guy, how much do you pay in terms of $ and assets if a trade?  I don’t think KA is looking for a long-term solution.  He needs to bridge the gap for 2-4 years depending on whether UPL develops into someone better then Ullmark (I doubt it) or Levi/Portillo develop into the starter.  It’s in all fairness a nearly impossible ask.  To many variables.

I don’t think we are signing Campbell or Kuemper.  I do wonder if we can get Holtby on a 3 year deal.  

[Marvin]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And right there is the problem. Tyrod Taylor was a middling QB who wasn't winning you anything. Ullmark is a middling GT that isn't winning you anything. 

Sometimes you need to pass on the meh things to get to the better things. 

Fair enough.  My whole life has been one of incremental improvements and doing the best with what I have.  If I am in an unacceptable position and I can get to "meh", I take it.  Then I look to get to "eh, OK" to "sure, fine" etc.  When I can jump to "good", like trading up to get Josh Allen, I grab it.

Because I find "meh" preferable to "bad", I am willing to improve to "meh", but never delude myself that I have better than "meh" -- I still need to improve.  Using Marty's example of himself, the Sabres could have been a solid team with him as #1 and Mika as #2.  But they could be a great team with Ryan Miller as #1 instead.  Just because the Sabres had Biron and Noronen does not mean that they should not go after Miller.

If you ever have to fight endemic and/or systemic problems in society, you see how much incremental improvements help.  Maybe it's a bad mindset for building and NHL team.

[LGR4GM]

52 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Your opinion makes sense if you believe Gibson will never be better than he is today and is likely to get worse.

That's not my opinion.

I think he's as or more talented than the vast majority of goalies in the NHL. He is still only 28 and has plenty of life left athletically. His past 3 years (not 5) have been  mediocre not terrible. Gibson at his worst is better than Craig Anderson is right now. The contract is meaningless to the Sabres for the next 2 years at least and really dovetails quite nicely to the time when Levi will have to get paid.

I think he's a candidate to be a legitimate #1 goalie who might be available at a buy-low price. I remember Carey Price and Fleury going through mid-career lulls when they were the subject of posts like yours and they bounced back fine. I think Gibson is in a rut and needs to be jolted out of it. I'd be betting that Donnie and the kids will invigorate him the way they've invigorated Anderson.

Yes, there is risk. But there is also potential reward, which I'm not seeing with any of the other options being discussed, with the exception of Fleury. I'm sick of stopgaps and I want someone who has the potential to be more.

The Sabres would need to do their homework on his headspace. But I bet on talent if the character is there.

I'm sorry what?

In the last 3 years for goalies with 10 games started:

Gibson's sv% has been .904, .903, and .904

Gibson is 46th, 43rd,  and 42nd in save% over the last 3 years

Gibson is 46th, 43rd, and 42nd in goals saved above average in the last 3 years

He has been absolutely terrible basically since he got paid. He has shown no signs of being what he was at 24yrs old and he is signed for another 5 years after this season ends. It isn't about an opinion it is about facts and the fact is John Gibson is no longer a good NHL goaltender. If your opinion is the 45th-ish best goalie in the league is going to take us anywhere, well that's on you. 

Edited April 12, 2022 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Fair enough.  My whole life has been one of incremental improvements and doing the best with what I have.  If I am in an unacceptable position and I can get to "meh", I take it.  Then I look to get to "eh, OK" to "sure, fine" etc.  When I can jump to "good", like trading up to get Josh Allen, I grab it.

Because I find "meh" preferable to "bad", I am willing to improve to "meh", but never delude myself that I have better than "meh" -- I still need to improve.  Using Marty's example of himself, the Sabres could have been a solid team with him as #1 and Mika as #2.  But they could be a great team with Ryan Miller as #1 instead.  Just because the Sabres had Biron and Noronen does not mean that they should not go after Miller.

If you ever have to fight endemic and/or systemic problems in society, you see how much incremental improvements help.  Maybe it's a bad mindset for building and NHL team.

Yes because in public health you are looking at using an intervention to get x improvement but in hockey you are looking at I need to win Y more games. You are focused on winning 4 more games a year and I am over here saying that doesn't matter when you need to win 20 more games a year. However you get to that 20 more games can be debated but Ullmark wasn't going to get you much more. You need the level above him.

[dudacek]

34 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He has been absolutely terrible basically since he got paid. He has shown no signs of being what he was at 24yrs old and he is signed for another 5 years after this season ends. It isn't about an opinion it is about facts and the fact is John Gibson is no longer a good NHL goaltender. If your opinion is the 45th-ish best goalie in the league is going to take us anywhere, well that's on you. 

Yes, yes it is. 😁

And, for the record, Jeff Skinner is no longer a good NHL forward, Kyle Okposo shouldn't even be in the league, Matt Duchene is terrible and Chris Krieder is a 25-goal scorer. Your charts are right until they aren't.

Edited April 12, 2022 by dudacek

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Fair enough.  My whole life has been one of incremental improvements and doing the best with what I have.  If I am in an unacceptable position and I can get to "meh", I take it.  Then I look to get to "eh, OK" to "sure, fine" etc.  When I can jump to "good", like trading up to get Josh Allen, I grab it.

Because I find "meh" preferable to "bad", I am willing to improve to "meh", but never delude myself that I have better than "meh" -- I still need to improve.  Using Marty's example of himself, the Sabres could have been a solid team with him as #1 and Mika as #2.  But they could be a great team with Ryan Miller as #1 instead.  Just because the Sabres had Biron and Noronen does not mean that they should not go after Miller.

If you ever have to fight endemic and/or systemic problems in society, you see how much incremental improvements help.  Maybe it's a bad mindset for building and NHL team.

Never let perfect be the enemy of better.

[LGR4GM]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes, yes it is. 😁

And, for the record, Jeff Skinner is no longer a good NHL forward, Kyle Okposo shouldn't even be in the league, Matt Duchene is terrible and Chris Krieder is a 25-goal scorer. Your charts are right until they aren't.

None of these are goalies. It is really telling when you can't argue against what I have shown on Gibson but have to resort to whatbout this other non-related player as the counter. John Gibson isn't good and this is the 2nd offseason of ppl claiming he will magically get better. Any improvement to Gibson will be incremental and hinge more on the defense than his abilities at this point. 

[Carmel Corn]

I find it kind of interesting to see that older netminders are still so common in the league today.  Just looking at goalies who have played at least 23 games, the list of age 30+ looks something like below.  We already have 2 of them, but wonder if there is anybody of quality in their early 30's to target for a couple years (ex. Kuemper)?

 Name    Team    Age
Craig Anderson    BUF    40
Mike Smith    EDM    39
Marc-Andre Fleury    MIN    37
Jonathan Quick    LAK    35
Thomas Greiss    DET    35
Cameron Talbot    MIN    34
Sergei Bobrovsky    FLA    33
James Reimer    SJS    33
Mikko Koskinen    EDM    33
Semyon Varlamov    NYI    33
Frederik Andersen    CAR    32
Dustin Tokarski    BUF    32
Braden Holtby    DAL    32
Jacob Markström    CGY    31
Darcy Kuemper    COL    31
Jake Allen    MTL    31
Martin Jones    PHI    31
Philipp Grubauer    SEA    30
Robin Lehner    VGK    30

[steveoath]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

The lack of options in this thread that are available, affordable, short-term and “good guys” has basically resigned me to the likelihood that we will be looking at an Anderson/UPL duo next year with either Subban or Tokarski as insurance.

It’s a ***** option, but under the parameters Adams has drawn for himself, it might be the best one.

My preference would be to put the Florida pick + Portillo on the table for a veteran and see if we can scare up a better option (John Gibson). Or to dramatically overpay for Fleury or Kuemper short-term.

I doubt either materializes.

I think we remain in goalie purgatory until Levi saves us.

Hasn't Gibson got like 5 or 6 years left. That's a bit grim. The more I think about it, the more I'd flip portillo, Vegas pick and something for 2 years of Hellebuyck if we could swing that. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

50 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Hasn't Gibson got like 5 or 6 years left. That's a bit grim. The more I think about it, the more I'd flip portillo, Vegas pick and something for 2 years of Hellebuyck if we could swing that. 

Could be worse.  At least he can still play.  What about poor Ottawa and their contract with Matt Murray.

FYI Holtby seemed to be on a serious decline for 4 years going from .925, to .907 to .911 to .897 to .889 but rebounded this year to .913.  I’m not saying acquire Gibson or that he’ll rebound here.  However rebounds for goaltenders are possible.  That said I wouldn’t risk his contract.  I’m also not acquiring Martin Jones.  

However, I am interested in bringing back Ullmark.  His career save % is only .912 and that is his % this season.  However we know he can put up that kind of number here behind a pour defense and we had a playoff winning % with him in goal.  I thought last year and still believe that he would be a perfect bridge until the kids are ready.  Just think how much better he’d do with a better team in from of him.

 

Edited April 12, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

10 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Hasn't Gibson got like 5 or 6 years left. That's a bit grim. The more I think about it, the more I'd flip portillo, Vegas pick and something for 2 years of Hellebuyck if we could swing that. 

I'd love to get Hellebucyk, but if Vegas misses the playoffs, you're talking the #15 pick or so plus other sweeteners for 2 years -- that seems like a pretty steep price.

[Norcal]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Could be worse.  At least he can still play.  What about poor Ottawa and their contract with Matt Murray.

F Ottawa. Maybe they want to get rid of Gustavsson?

I think he can be resurrected. He's had a tough year and Forsberg got the extension. 

Coach him up in Rochester 

[PerreaultForever]

So many people talking about Hellebuyk is there even a rumour that he's on the trade block? I think he has a partial no trade clause too but not sure. Can't see that one happening imo unless we give away way too much.

I wonder if St. Louis might want to ditch Binnington now that they've somewhat moved on to Husso? 

Korpisalo is probably the best FA option imo but he's not a sure thing as a solution either. Bit of a gamble but maybe affordable and fitting into the plan better.

[steveoath]

9 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

might want to ditch Binnington

So they should, but that contract is not aging well.