Offseason Gameplan 2022 - Solving the goaltending system wide.

[nfreeman]

Let's not be too quick to bury Ullmark, who has been playing very well and may have taken over the Bruins' #1 slot:
 

Quote

 

In his past six starts, Ullmark is 6-0-0 with a .938 save percentage. Swayman is 3-3-0 with an .883 save percentage.

If the playoffs were to start Sunday, Ullmark would be the slam-dunk starter. But goaltending performance is difficult to project over a three-week span. It could very well be that Swayman surges and snatches back Game 1 duty.

How Ullmark and Swayman will play between now and the start of the playoffs is unknown. The following is certain: Both are approaching career workload peaks.

Sunday, Ullmark will set a career high with his 35th start. He had 34 in 2018-19 and 2019-20 in Buffalo. The Sabres never made the playoffs during Ullmark’s stay.

 

 

https://theathletic.com/3240218/2022/04/10/linus-ullmark-jeremy-swayman-playoffs/

[Radar]

5 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Clarification: from above, 2 of (Buffalo 2022 1st, Dahlin, Power) plus Quinn for Shesterkin.  And if I am the Strangers, that's not enough.

I had imagined Ullmark as either growing or tiding me over.  This would be year 2 of a 4-5 year contract at about $4M if I had had my druthers.  A bit high, but workable.

 

Injuries and sporadic play would leave me hesitant to have gone more than 2-3 at over 3/ml per. for Ulmark. He could look great and then very average for stretches.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Radar

[Norcal]

Buffalo will sign a veteran goalie to pair with UPL. 

They might have to pay up but I don't think the reputation of the team is as bad as it has been for the last few years.

Free Agents might not line up to play here but Tuch, being the kind of person he is, has relationships around the league which cannot be understated.

That, a nice contract with term and a starting job will help persuade a decent goaltender to take a chance.

Careers are short.

Some players have to look out for themselves and get that money when they can.

See>Ullmark

[JohnC]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Boy this got snarky fast.

Anyway, I’d love to hear what Marty said if anyone has a link. The market for goaltending should be interesting.  I would not assume we are or are not on anyone’s lost any longer.  I think this team has garnered some respect with their recent play and because of our cap space, there will UFA inquiries.  

There aren’t many teams in the starter goalie market.  3 playoff teams have starters who are UFAs - Campbell (Tor), Koskinen (Edm) and Kuemper (Col) and my guess is Campbell and Kuemper will re-sign.  Koskinen (age 33), could be allowed to walk. Chi, Buff and NJ really have nothing in net.  Of the teams without a real goalie, I’d rather come to Buffalo then a declining Chi team or the void that is NJ.  

There are a couple of teams with big decisions to make.  For example Stl.  Do they re-sign Husso and move on from Binnington (and his NTC).  Is Mon content with Allen as the starter? How does SJ resolve Hill, Reimer and Kahkonen(RFA).

It’s funny to ask this, but will Boston trade Ullmark back to us?  Would KA be interested? Also any interest in Casey DeSmith? Would you take Binnington and his long-term deal if Stl eats 1/3 of it?  

Despite negative comments elsewhere, I wouldn’t mind taking a RFA run at Georgiev or Samsonov.  Both are better goalies then they have shown this year and we might get a real long-term bargain.

 

The hosts start the show talking about the goalie situation. Marty starts off saying that since neither of the two college prospects went pro the organization needs to address the issue with greater urgency. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/the-instigators

[Norcal]

At a base level, I can understand where Marvin is coming from. 

Starting Championship Level goaltending is hard to find.

Once you have one, like a franchise QB in football, you don't trade them or you ask for a kings ransom in return. 

If the other guy doesn't like it, he can piss off.

 

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The hosts start the show talking about the goalie situation. Marty starts off saying that since neither of the two college prospects went pro the organization needs to address the issue with greater urgency. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/the-instigators

They should sign a couple SHL guys. 

I know one who can stop a few pucks. 

[thewookie1]

29 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Clarification: from above, 2 of (Buffalo 2022 1st, Dahlin, Power) plus Quinn for Shesterkin.  And if I am the Strangers, that's not enough.

I had imagined Ullmark as either growing or tiding me over.  This would be year 2 of a 4-5 year contract at about $4M if I had had my druthers.  A bit high, but workable.

That's still insane and no team would ever receive that much for their backup no matter how high end their potential is (as long as they already have a good starter)

Also I'd never trade that much to get a goalie (also why are you talking about Shesterkin when they aren't trading him?)

 

In my opinion we should throw 2x8mil at Kuemper. which is solid overpayment and gives him the ability to sign somewhere again at 33. We can't go any longer in term at that cap hit though. Colorado just resigned Francois so I'd guess Kuemper is likely a goner.

54 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Boy this got snarky fast.

Anyway, I’d love to hear what Marty said if anyone has a link. The market for goaltending should be interesting.  I would not assume we are or are not on anyone’s lost any longer.  I think this team has garnered some respect with their recent play and because of our cap space, there will UFA inquiries.  

There aren’t many teams in the starter goalie market.  3 playoff teams have starters who are UFAs - Campbell (Tor), Koskinen (Edm) and Kuemper (Col) and my guess is Campbell and Kuemper will re-sign.  Koskinen (age 33), could be allowed to walk. Chi, Buff and NJ really have nothing in net.  Of the teams without a real goalie, I’d rather come to Buffalo then a declining Chi team or the void that is NJ.  

There are a couple of teams with big decisions to make.  For example Stl.  Do they re-sign Husso and move on from Binnington (and his NTC).  Is Mon content with Allen as the starter? How does SJ resolve Hill, Reimer and Kahkonen(RFA).

It’s funny to ask this, but will Boston trade Ullmark back to us?  Would KA be interested? Also any interest in Casey DeSmith? Would you take Binnington and his long-term deal if Stl eats 1/3 of it?  

Despite negative comments elsewhere, I wouldn’t mind taking a RFA run at Georgiev or Samsonov.  Both are better goalies then they have shown this year and we might get a real long-term bargain.

 

 

I have zero interest in Campbell based on what his ask would be and how little actual solid play he has under his name. (He has less then 35 games good games to his name.) 

Koskinen is even worse than what we have already; I'll resign Anderson for 2 years before Koskinen

Husso would be in a similar spot to Kuemper in a 2x7/8mil contract offer

Binnington is a moody trainwreck so no thanks

Reimer would be a good temporary stopgap.

Georgiev seems like a bit of headcase

Samsonov has yet to impress me.

Edited April 11, 2022 by thewookie1

[JohnC]

15 minutes ago, Norcal said:

At a base level, I can understand where Marvin is coming from. 

Starting Championship Level goaltending is hard to find.

Once you have one, like a franchise QB in football, you don't trade them or you ask for a kings ransom in return. 

If the other guy doesn't like it, he can piss off.

 

They should sign a couple SHL guys. 

I know one who can stop a few pucks. 

I still contend that not signing Ullmark, even on a 5 year term, was a mistake. It put this team in a bind in searching for better options. Many argue that Ullmark isn't the caliber of goalie to invest in. My response is that he is better than what we have. And even if signed on a 5 year term that doesn't necessarily mean that you have to keep him to the end of his contract. 

[PerreaultForever]

Well a tandem of UPL/Anderson certainly isn't the answer but it may be what we get. 

UPL might be better than his numbers indicate and he might give us a good stretch of games but he needs to be paired with a good veteran who can take about half the load if needed. 

People are dumping on Ullmark here (sour grapes?) and he was being critiqued in Boston for not being Rask, but when Swayman (their obvious goalie of the future) lost his mojo (as young goalies can do from time to time) he stepped in and went on a win streak playing very well. Point being, that's what we need to have. If UPL is our Swayman, we need our version of Ullmark to go with him and that's not Anderson. 

I'm glad we didn't sign Ullmark though. Would have deprived the highlight reels of the goalie hug, the kind of thing this team could use a little of. 

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Clarification: from above, 2 of (Buffalo 2022 1st, Dahlin, Power) plus Quinn for Shesterkin.  And if I am the Strangers, that's not enough.

I had imagined Ullmark as either growing or tiding me over.  This would be year 2 of a 4-5 year contract at about $4M if I had had my druthers.  A bit high, but workable.

 

And if I'm the Sabres that's too much and I named the best goalie in the league so again, Dahlin, Power and Quinn for any goalie in the league is insane. It's not even remotely plausible and no gm would trade that much. This entire scenario isn't anchored in reality, it's anchored in panic and fear. 

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I still contend that not signing Ullmark, even on a 5 year term, was a mistake. It put this team in a bind in searching for better options. Many argue that Ullmark isn't the caliber of goalie to invest in. My response is that he is better than what we have. And even if signed on a 5 year term that doesn't necessarily mean that you have to keep him to the end of his contract. 

It wasn't. You don't sign mediocre starter to a 5 year deal. 

[nucci]

2 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

FYI: Quick wants to stay in LA.    The Sabres are certainly on Varlamov's NTL.  I would prefer Dell AND Houser as our goaltending tandem over having Georgiev as our #1.  Samsonov is Tokarski behind a good team.  I can't imagine Fleury coming to Buffalo.  You would need double the salary and term that Ullmark has now in Boston to get the UFA's you listed.  Given the situations in Toronto, Edmonton, Las Vegas, etc., if I were a GM with a good goaltender to trade, Buffalo has to start with 2 of Buffalo's 1st in 2022, Power, and Dahlin plus a very good sweetener (Quinn or better) before I even consider a counter-offer.

and Adams would hang up and move on

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I still contend that not signing Ullmark, even on a 5 year term, was a mistake. It put this team in a bind in searching for better options. Many argue that Ullmark isn't the caliber of goalie to invest in. My response is that he is better than what we have. And even if signed on a 5 year term that doesn't necessarily mean that you have to keep him to the end of his contract. 

There is no question that KA over played his hand here. We wouldn’t be having this discussion if KA had extended him when he first arrived.  Longer contracts can be both a blessing or curse and often some of both.  However a consistent goaltender like Ullmark has value regardless of how much term is on his deal.  Had UPL developed like KA hoped, the worst that could of happened is one gets traded to bring assets back to the franchise.  Had Ullmark been retained, we’d have probably won an additional 5+ games this year.  

Oh well!  Time for KA to really come up with plan B.  Unless he trades for someone, he is going to have to commit to someone for 3 or 4 years at a minimum.
 

As to trade value, what in KA’s career so far has shown you that he’d throw that kind of assets for a goaltender fix?  It’s not happening.  KA believes in his pipeline of UPL, Portillo and Levi.  He is not going to waste assets on a top of the league starter.  What he will go is to the Macy’s sales rack approach and try to find a Polo shirt at a bargain price.  I’m even wondering if he might actually go for a 3 headed monster in net by promoting UPL, re-signing Anderson and then signing DeSmith or someone like him.  

Edited April 11, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And if I'm the Sabres that's too much and I named the best goalie in the league so again, Dahlin, Power and Quinn for any goalie in the league is insane. It's not even remotely plausible and no gm would trade that much. This entire scenario isn't anchored in reality, it's anchored in panic and fear. 

It wasn't. You don't sign mediocre starter to a 5 year deal. 

The organization was willing to sign him two a 4 year deal. His request of an extra year compared to the Boston offer was a line the GM was not willing to cross. What I can say with confidence is that Ullmark would have been a better GT than the other players we have used. As I have repeatedly have stated even with a 5 year contract the team is not obligated to keep him for the full term. As far as asking for money from Buffalo per year compared to Boston that is also not a significant issue for a team that struggled to meet the cap floor. There is a saying: Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. In my opinion the GM blundered and is still in search of a goalie option. A miscalculation is a miscalculation.  

[LGR4GM]

This thread reminds me of when Bills fans used to say Fitz was a good qb. He wasn't, you just hadn't seen good in so long anything that wasn't a dumpster fire was good. 

We need to get better than Ullmark and signing him long term isn't getting better, it's treading water. 

Just now, JohnC said:

The organization was willing to sign him two a 4 year deal. His request of an extra year compared to the Boston offer was a line the GM was not willing to cross. What I can say with confidence is that Ullmark would have been a better GT than the other players we have used. As I have repeatedly have stated even with a 5 year contract the team is not obligated to keep him for the full term. As far as asking for money from Buffalo per year compared to Boston that is also not a significant issue for a team that struggled to meet the cap floor. There is a saying: Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. In my opinion the GM blundered and is still in search of a goalie option. A miscalculation is a miscalculation.  

Good. 

It's not a miscalculation, starting next year we'll have a better gt.

[LGR4GM]

Lol saying Adams blundered by not signing a mediocre gt for more money and years is something.

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There is no question that KA over played his hand here. We wouldn’t be having this discussion if KA had extended him when he first arrived.  Longer contracts can be both a blessing or curse and often some of both.  However a consistent goaltender like Ullmark has value regardless of how much term is on his deal.  Had UPL developed like KA hoped, the worst that could of happened is one gets traded to bring assets back to the franchise.  Had Ullmark been retained, we’d have probably won an additional 5+ games this year.  

Oh well!  Time for KA to really come up with plan B.  Unless he trades for someone, he is going to have to commit to someone for 3 or 4 years at a minimum.
 

 

Whether Ullmark was signed on a four or five year contract should not have been an obstacle to signing him. As long as a "no trade" clause is not part of the contract, he can be dealt before the expiration of the contract. 

The range of games that I would estimate for more wins with Ullmark would be 6 plus. That would put a more upbeat color to this season. In my opinion KA outsmarted himself. He ended up handcuffing himself. It shouldn't have happened.  

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This thread reminds me of when Bills fans used to say Fitz was a good qb. He wasn't, you just hadn't seen good in so long anything that wasn't a dumpster fire was good. 

We need to get better than Ullmark and signing him long term isn't getting better, it's treading water. 

Good. 

It's not a miscalculation, starting next year we'll have a better gt.

Who? 

[LGR4GM]

The lack of faith in UPL is surprising. 

[Marvin]

37 minutes ago, Norcal said:

At a base level, I can understand where Marvin is coming from. 

Starting Championship Level goaltending is hard to find.

Once you have one, like a franchise QB in football, you don't trade them or you ask for a kings ransom in return. 

If the other guy doesn't like it, he can piss off.

 

They should sign a couple SHL guys. 

I know one who can stop a few pucks. 

Thank you for stating this in a way I could translate it better.

For Bills fans, what would an acceptable trade for Josh Allen look like?  That's how I view trading consistent, game-in-game-out, year-in-year-out, top-level goaltending.

[Norcal]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The lack of faith in UPL is surprising. 

I'm in on UPL but I want a guy still

[sabremike]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The lack of faith in UPL is surprising. 

Why would you have faith in someone whose performance has been completely erratic and seems to get seriously injured every 20 games?

[Norcal]

32 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I still contend that not signing Ullmark, even on a 5 year term, was a mistake. It put this team in a bind in searching for better options. Many argue that Ullmark isn't the caliber of goalie to invest in. My response is that he is better than what we have. And even if signed on a 5 year term that doesn't necessarily mean that you have to keep him to the end of his contract. 

Too late man. He'll never win a chip as the guy imo

[mjd1001]

UPL in Buffalo, a free agent guy in Buffalo.

As far as Rochester....I don't have any names but the Sabres have to be looking for some 'decent' young prospects that other teams have.  You don't want to overpay for another teams top goaltending prospect, but I would think there are guys out there that are 'potential' NHL long term guys, in their early 20's, that might not have a path to the NHL with their current team.  Adams has to find a handful of those guys and maybe trade a mid-round pick for them.  After you find one of those, sign another free-agent for Rochester to go with him.

Or find a college free agent guy that hasn't been drafted for Roch.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

The lack of faith in UPL is surprising. 

Why is it surprising? What has he done to merit excitement?  His AHL numbers are terrible.  He is getting outplayed in Rochester by Aaron Dell who couldn’t cut in the NHL any longer.  Yes, he had solid moments in his 9 games in Buffalo, but even then he crashed and burned with an .857 save % against SJ and then giving up two goals in 9 shots against TB before getting sent down.  

I just don’t think he is ready of even for NHL backup duty. Hopefully for the Sabres I’m wrong.  
 

UPL vs Dell vs Houser in the AHL

Dell 20gp  12-6-1 3.02 gaa . 907 save %

Houser 11gp 5-4-0- 2.98 & .900

UPL 28gp 11-12-5. 3.52 & .895

[Radar]

8 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Thank you for stating this in a way I could translate it better.

For Bills fans, what would an acceptable trade for Josh Allen look like?  That's how I view trading consistent, game-in-game-out, year-in-year-out, top-level goaltending.

That's why you need to develop them. Hasek was an extraordinary exception. MAF was a lesser exception. Generally you need to home grow them. Maybe a cap stressed team has a serviceable vet they need to move but trading for a top tier guy is hardly ever done. JMO.

[Marvin]

I think people are missing my point.  Trading Josh Allen for what the opposing GM thinks is fair value is NOT what I would trade him for.  Ditto for consistent, higher-end, long term goaltending.

So take an acceptable trade for Josh Allen from a random team which is a QB short of the Super Bowl and make a trade with them for Josh Allen that you would find acceptable.  Now take the corresponding goaltender in the NHL, be the OTHER TEAM'S GM, and decide what a comparable price is from the Sabres.

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And if I'm the Sabres that's too much and I named the best goalie in the league so again, Dahlin, Power and Quinn for any goalie in the league is insane. It's not even remotely plausible and no gm would trade that much. This entire scenario isn't anchored in reality, it's anchored in panic and fear. 

No, it is anchored in how I value that kind of goaltending.  For instance, would you trade Josh Allen for a top-20 CB, a top-20 DE, and a top 20 WR, and find a mediocre QB to replace Allen?

28 minutes ago, nucci said:

and Adams would hang up and move on

As would be his prerogative.

[Flashsabre]

Kuemper is my grand slam signing but if they could sign Husso to pair with UPL as a Finnish Connection that would be solid too.

Husso has vastly outplayed Binnington but the Blues  are stuck with Binnington’s anchor contract. I think Husso sits 3rd in the league in goals saved above replacement. He is just coming into that age range that most goalies start to really find their game.

And no I don’t give a crap about the Hutton-Blues situation, totally different goalies and teams.