Sabres since beginning of March

[That Aud Smell]

A little sobering: A 97 point pace may not be an Eastern playoff team this season?!

[WildCard]

Just now, That Aud Smell said:

A little sobering: A 97 point pace may not be an Eastern playoff team this season?!

The East is stacked yup, but keep in mind those events are related; as the bottom of the East gets better the point total required to be in the playoffs is less. 6/10 of the bottom teams in the league are in the East, and 3/5 of the bottom five.

[dudacek]

55 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

 

And only one (Chicago) was against a "bad" team. The other 2 were the Jets and Canucks, who were in the playoff race when we faced them.

Edited April 13, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

Still getting manhandled by Fla, TB and Car shows how far we still have to go to be an elite team.  The gap has definitely closed, but to be a top level team we needed to find away to win the Car and Fla games when we had a lead.  Those are tough lessons for a young team.  

[PromoTheRobot]

8 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

 

So with 7 games to play, if we get 9 points we finish at 74. 68 was the Vegas O/U at the season start. .451 pt%. Last year we were .333 pt%. 

My goal is to finish 9th from the bottom. That takes the Sabres out of the bottom ¼ of the league. 

 

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Still getting manhandled by Fla, TB and Car shows how far we still have to go to be an elite team.  The gap has definitely closed, but to be a top level team we needed to find away to win the Car and Fla games when we had a lead.  Those are tough lessons for a young team.  

I think we’ve evolved to the point where the Tage line is an average NHL 1st line, Mitts/VO and Girgs/KO are good NHL 3rd lines, and Cozens/Krebs is an excellent 4th line.

Which is a huge leap forward from having good 1st and 4th lines and bad 2nd and 3rd lines. We no longer have lengthy stretches in the game where we are putting out a line that is getting seriously overmatched.

[Weave]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think we’ve evolved to the point where the Tage line is an average NHL 1st line, Mitts/VO and Girgs/KO are good NHL 3rd lines, and Cozens/Krebs is an excellent 4th line.

Which is a huge leap forward from having good 1st and 4th lines and bad 2nd and 3rd lines. We no longer have lengthy stretches in the game where we are putting out a line that is getting seriously overmatched.

Interesting.   I was just thinking this AM that we went from a good 1st line, two mediocre 3rd lines, and an AHL line to a very good 2nd line and three good 3rd lines.

The middle six hasn’t been this effective since Drury/Briere left.

[dudacek]

32 minutes ago, Weave said:

Interesting.   I was just thinking this AM that we went from a good 1st line, two mediocre 3rd lines, and an AHL line to a very good 2nd line and three good 3rd lines.

The middle six hasn’t been this effective since Drury/Briere left.

We might be saying the same thing in different ways, but I just don’t see many teams with 2nd lines as good as the Tall and Skinny line. How many lines have 2 30 goal scorers? I doubt there’s a half-dozen. There are only 35 30-goal scorers in the entire league.

Edited April 13, 2022 by dudacek

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

A little sobering: A 97 point pace may not be an Eastern playoff team this season?!

17 games vs playoff teams.  

[El Zahir]

Just now, dudacek said:

We might be saying the same thing in different ways, but I just don’t see many teams with 2nd lines as good as the Tall and Skinny line. How many lines have 2 30 goal scorers? I doubt there’s a half-dozen. There are only 35 30-goal scorers in the entire league.

I was actually just looking that up. As of today, there are only 5 teams in the league that have a first line (or any line) with 2 30-goal scorers this season. Buffalo, Dallas, Florida, Toronto, and the Calgary Flames who have Tkachuk, Lindholm and Gaudreau all over 30.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think we’ve evolved to the point where the Tage line is an average NHL 1st line, Mitts/VO and Girgs/KO are good NHL 3rd lines, and Cozens/Krebs is an excellent 4th line.

Which is a huge leap forward from having good 1st and 4th lines and bad 2nd and 3rd lines. We no longer have lengthy stretches in the game where we are putting out a line that is getting seriously overmatched.

I basically agree with your line characterization.  Our forward group is as effective as it’s been in a decade.  Against most teams this would be enough and it has been except at the top level of competition.  I exempt Tor because their defense is terrible.
 

 

[That Aud Smell]

34 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

17 games vs playoff teams.  

‘S why I said a “little.” 🙃

[Crusader1969]

Since March 1

Sabres 27 pts in 23 games.  Would be good enough for 1st wildcard position 

Ahead of Boston, Carolina and Pittsburgh 

[JustOneParade]

Given the number of games and the quality of opponents, is that a sufficient sample size for folks to feel comfortable that the Sabres have turned the corner in a sustainable way? (As opposed to those mirage-like streaks of recent past). I certainly believe it to be so.

[Pimlach]

On 4/13/2022 at 9:40 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Still getting manhandled by Fla, TB and Car shows how far we still have to go to be an elite team.  The gap has definitely closed, but to be a top level team we needed to find away to win the Car and Fla games when we had a lead.  Those are tough lessons for a young team.  

   Improve the goaltending and that will make a significant difference.  It is not all we need, but it’s the most important piece if this team is going to challenge for playoffs. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Pimlach

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Given the number of games and the quality of opponents, is that a sufficient sample size for folks to feel comfortable that the Sabres have turned the corner in a sustainable way? (As opposed to those mirage-like streaks of recent past). I certainly believe it to be so.

Great question and welcome to the board.

The answer for me is a definite maybe.  The question of the goaltending needs to be answered before I say for sure that they've turned the corner.  

If I break it down by position, I can agree that the forward group is ready to compete nightly.  The defense is still spotty and the goaltending is mediocre at best.  If we go into roster year with this roster as is, it is not a playoff caliber team.  

Obviously there will be new additions next year beyond Quinn, JJP and Power.  However if KA brings back Anderson in a tandem with UPL, the goaltending will ultimately let us down again.

@JustOneParade I've been waiting for "just one parade" for decades and actually finally got two this past fall with the Braves winning the WS and UGA winning the Natty.  It can happen, and it's nice to see my hometown teams making strides towards that goal.  Obviously the Bills are closer to the goal, but for the first time in a decade the Sabres aren't a laughing stock.

Edited April 17, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Given the number of games and the quality of opponents, is that a sufficient sample size for folks to feel comfortable that the Sabres have turned the corner in a sustainable way? (As opposed to those mirage-like streaks of recent past). I certainly believe it to be so.

The chart is kinda interesting:

October .688

November .286

December .318

January .385

February .250

March .700

April .444

They would seem to indicate slow improvement from a bad team, with unexpected blips in February and March.

[Weave]

21 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Given the number of games and the quality of opponents, is that a sufficient sample size for folks to feel comfortable that the Sabres have turned the corner in a sustainable way? (As opposed to those mirage-like streaks of recent past). I certainly believe it to be so.

Comfortable?  No.   Cautiously optimistic?  Yea.

Still depends on the unknowns of continued player development, sustainability of Thompsons amazing season, a goalie, and Quinn and maybe Peterka sliding in successfully.

[JustOneParade]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Great question and welcome to the board.

The answer for me is a definite maybe.  The question of the goaltending needs to be answered before I say for sure that they've turned the corner.  

If I break it down by position, I can agree that the forward group is ready to compete nightly.  The defense is still spotty and the goaltending is mediocre at best.  If we go into roster year with this roster as is, it is not a playoff caliber team.  

Obviously there will be new additions next year beyond Quinn, JJP and Power.  However if KA brings back Anderson in a tandem with UPL, the goaltending will ultimately let us down again.

Thank you @GASabresIUFAN and I agree with you about the needs at GT and RHD. I don't feel this is a playoff team without those being addressed. (And FTR, I think a sneaky third thing is a vast improvement in the effectiveness of managing/passing the puck). Playoffs is the next milestone. For the Sabres to become elite, i.e. Presidents Trophy contenders, at the least the present 'young core' likely needs another three years of experience.

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The chart is kinda interesting:

October .688

November .286

December .318

January .385

February .250

March .700

April .444

They would seem to indicate slow improvement from a bad team, with unexpected blips in February and March.

I wonder how much of that dip in Nov - Jan is because of a young team without much depth getting hammered by injuries?  It would be interesting to see how many games Hayden, Caggiula, Bjork, Butcher, Miller, Pysyk, Subban, and Dell played during that span. 

I'd also like to see the winning % of our opponents in those months.

Edited April 17, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[steveoath]

On 4/13/2022 at 4:46 PM, dudacek said:

The Tall and Skinny line

Are we all just going to overlook the best line name suggestion here!? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The chart is kinda interesting:

October .688

November .286

December .318

January .385

February .250

March .700

April .444

They would seem to indicate slow improvement from a bad team, with unexpected blips in February and March.

Where did these numbers come from?   I get the same points % for Nov, but in Dec I get .300 (2-6-2 or 6 pts out of 20) and in Jan I get .417 (4-6-2 or 10 pts out of 24).

FYI in Nov the Sabres opponents had a current win % of .537, .599 for Dec and .518 for Jan.

The JAG numbers are staggering in those games.  Bjork played 86%, Hayden 89%, Butcher 67%, Miller 86% before he got hurt.  Caggiula 71% before he got hurt at the end of Nov.  Dell/Subban played 16 games in that period and combined for a 1-13-2 record.

Edited April 17, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Where did these numbers come from?   I get the same points % for Nov, but in Dec I get .300 (2-6-2 or 6 pts out of 20) and in Jan I get .417 (4-6-2 or 10 pts out of 24).

FYI in Nov the Sabres opponents had a current win % of .537, .599 for Dec and .518 for Jan.

The JAG numbers are staggering in those games.  Bjork played 86%, Hayden 89%, Butcher 67%, Miller 86% before he got hurt.  Caggiula 71% before he got hurt at the end of Nov.  Dell/Subban played 16 games in that period and combined for a 1-13-2 record.

NHL.com.

I ran each month individually Dec. 1 to Jan. 1. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

NHL.com.

I ran each month individually Dec. 1 to Jan. 1. 

That’s the error.  We played on Jan 1 and the NHL included that in your numbers.  That would be 11 "dec" games with an 2-6-3 record or .318

Here is food for thought.  In the 20 games from Nov through Jan in which Dell or Subban didn't play, the Sbares were 8-8-4.  That's hockey 500.

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Great question and welcome to the board.

The answer for me is a definite maybe.  The question of the goaltending needs to be answered before I say for sure that they've turned the corner.  

If I break it down by position, I can agree that the forward group is ready to compete nightly.  The defense is still spotty and the goaltending is mediocre at best.  If we go into roster year with this roster as is, it is not a playoff caliber team.  

Obviously there will be new additions next year beyond Quinn, JJP and Power.  However if KA brings back Anderson in a tandem with UPL, the goaltending will ultimately let us down again.

@JustOneParade I've been waiting for "just one parade" for decades and actually finally got two this past fall with the Braves winning the WS and UGA winning the Natty.  It can happen, and it's nice to see my hometown teams making strides towards that goal.  Obviously the Bills are closer to the goal, but for the first time in a decade the Sabres aren't a laughing stock.

Here’s a question for you.  If they bring back the same team. Add- JJ, Quinn and UPL for Toker, Bjork and Eaken.  How far under the Cap will they be?? 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Crusader1969