How many Norris Trophies will Dahlin win?

[matter2003]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Where does the 3 years come from?  Dahlin is 1.5 years younger than Makar.

Also, Dahlin is not going to get to where Makar is now.  I just don’t see any way that he becomes that offensively dynamic, could be better defensively though.

I just looked at 1998 for Makar and didn't realize he doesn't turn 24 until late October...miscalculation on my part

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

It was only just a few month ago many of you here were calling him a bust, soft, dumb, and other negatives.  
 

Times they are a changin’.  

For Dahlin the progress has been steady.

At first you saw flashes of what he could be in individual great plays.  As time went on, you saw him having great shifts. Then he would have great periods.  Recently he has been having great games.   Hopefully things will continue and he'll start having great months, or even great seasons.

[French Collection]

He is more Lidstrom than Leetch.

If he is near the top of the Dmen scoring championship, but controls the tempo of games, is a possession beast and stares down opponents, I can’t see how he doesn’t get one or two trophies.

Can they extend him to 8 years soon?

 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, French Collection said:

He is more Lidstrom than Leetch.

If he is near the top of the Dmen scoring championship, but controls the tempo of games, is a possession beast and stares down opponents, I can’t see how he doesn’t get one or two trophies.

Can they extend him to 8 years soon?

 

No, they can't extend Dahlin until a year from July 1. 

[Stoner]

Dumb. Dahlin did largely suck. And it should be the default view until he does it when it counts.

That said I'd bet money this Dahlin is the Dahlin moving forward. That would be awesome.

Fans can be objective.

[dudacek]

39 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Dumb. Dahlin did largely suck. And it should be the default view until he does it when it counts.

That said I'd bet money this Dahlin is the Dahlin moving forward. That would be awesome.

Fans can be objective.

They can be, but this is hardly an example.

Dahlin had a rough two-week stretch and people overreacted to a handful of high-profile blunders in back-to-back games.

He was good to start the season prior to that stretch and - other than that blip - his play has been steadily improving basically since Krueger got fired.

The number of bad hockey takes in November was embarrassing and saying that “Dahlin sucks” should be the default view until “games count” is another example.

Edited March 21, 2022 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Just now, dudacek said:

They can be, but this is hardly an example.

Dahlin had a rough two-week stretch and people overreacted to a handful of high-profile blunders in back-to-back games.

He was good to start the season prior to that stretch and - other than that blip - his play has been steadily improving basically since Krueger got fired.

The number of bad hockey takes in November was embarrassing.

Stop being objective and also remembering November correctly. 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Not arguing your point. Food for thought: in Makar's rookie season he was 21, the same age Dahlin is now.

And Makar didn't have a head coach who insisted he play as if he was wearing a strait jacket instead of allowing him to simply play and grow as a player. Krueger stifled Dahlin while Granato encouraged him and allowed him a little more freedom to develop as a player. For Granato, mistakes are part of the learning process while for Krueger mistakes are a reason to harness the player even more. 

[LabattBlue]

ZERO

[Crusader1969]

On 3/21/2022 at 5:53 AM, LGR4GM said:

Slow down a little. I love Dahlin too but he's got a long road to bring a Norris contender

Dahlin driving down that road   It’s amazing how far he has come in so little time   
this take was right at the time - 6 months ago!  Wow 

Edited October 24, 2022 by Crusader1969

[Norcal]

70 points would put him in the running this year

[JoeSchmoe]

6

[Eleven]

26.  He already told you.

[Doohicksie]

 

[PerreaultForever]

I do think Dahlin has arrived finally and will be good but I am curious to see how well he does without Samuelsson beside him. 

[Pimlach]

He could get Norris votes this season.  Long way to go, but no one can deny what they are seeing so far.  

[Buffalonill]

Hopefully he doesn't that award lost its meaning and how special it was .

all you have to do is score a ton of points 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I went back to last season to see if we could see this breakout by Dahlin coming and the answer is kinda of. 

Dahlin really had a pretty balanced season last year.  He scored at least one point in 37 games and that was pretty evenly divided in each quarter of the season, 9, 10, 9 and 9 games respectively.  His points were also pretty evenly divided by quarter 12, 14, 11, & 16.  

Where the starkest contrast came is Dahlin’s influence on team’s ability to win games. In games Dahlin scored during the entire season the team was a sparkling 18-12-7 (a 95 pt pace), but most of that success came in the second half of the season.  In the first half, the Sabres went 7-12-2 (.76 pts per game) in games without Dahlin scoring and 5-9-5 (.79) in games he did.  A difference, but only a very slight one.  However, in the second half, the Sabres were a terrible 6-14-2 (.64) in games without a Dahlin point but an amazing 13-3-2 (1.6) in games Dahlin had a least one point.  This trend exploded in the last quarter when the Sabres went 8-0-1 (1.9) in games Dahlin posted at least a point but only 3-6-2 (.73) in games he didn’t.  

Obviously the Sabres as a team were better in the second half, but the win/loss stats seem to confirm the eye test that Dahlin’s all around game and his influence on the Sabres ability to win took off in the second half of the season and that he has carried that influence into the new season. 

Edited October 24, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

Hopefully he doesn't that award lost its meaning and how special it was .

all you have to do is score a ton of points 

You are hopeful he doesn't get the Norris because of why?  

[Weave]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I went back to last season to see if we could see this breakout by Dahlin coming and the answer is kinda of. 

Dahlin really had a pretty balanced season last year.  He scored at least one point in 37 games and that was pretty evenly divided in each quarter of the season, 9, 10, 9 and 9 games respectively.  His points were also pretty evenly divided by quarter 12, 14, 11, & 16.  

Where the starkest contrast came is Dahlin’s influence on team’s ability to win games. In games Dahlin scored during the entire season the team was a sparkling 18-12-7 (a 95 pt pace), but most of that success came in the second half of the season.  In the first half, the Sabres went 7-12-2 (.76 pts per game) in games without Dahlin scoring and 5-9-5 (.79) in games he did.  A difference, but only a very slight one.  However, in the second half, the Sabres were a terrible 6-14-2 (.64) in games without a Dahlin point but an amazing 13-3-2 (1.6) in games Dahlin had a least one point.  This trend exploded in the last quarter when the Sabres went 8-0-1 (1.9) in games Dahlin posted at least a point but only 3-6-2 (.73) in games he didn’t.  

Obviously the Sabres as a team were better in the second half, but the win/loss stats seem to confirm the eye test that Dahlin’s all around game and his influence on the Sabres ability to win took off in the second half of the season and that he has carried that influence into the new season. 

My recollection was most noted a difference in Dahlin shortly after the all star game.  Lots of discussion around Hedman talking to Dahlin during all star weekend and Dahlin came back a force.

Would love to know what Hedman told Dahlin.

[Buffalonill]

23 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

You are hopeful he doesn't get the Norris because of why?  

Because its nothing special anymore its just a scoring contest. 

 

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Because its nothing special anymore its just a scoring contest. 

 

You hope Dahlin doesn’t win the defenseman scoring race?  Why would you not want that either?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

6.7

[Pimlach]

32 minutes ago, Weave said:

My recollection was most noted a difference in Dahlin shortly after the all star game.  Lots of discussion around Hedman talking to Dahlin during all star weekend and Dahlin came back a force.

Would love to know what Hedman told Dahlin.

Agree.  Hedman could have simply told him to stop taking ***** from inferior players and push back.  Once he started pushing back he got more room to operate and his confidence is way up.   

[sabresparaavida]

3 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Hopefully he doesn't that award lost its meaning and how special it was .

all you have to do is score a ton of points 

If that was the case, why didn’t Roman Jodi win last year when he had 10 more points than Makar?

or in 2021 with Tyson Barrie leading defenseman in points? 
 

Or in 2019 with Brent Burns leading defenseman by 9 points and still losing

or in 2018 when Hedman was 5th in scoring but won.

 

Leading defenseman in points is special anyways, even though it doesn’t gurantee the Norris. 
 

Something interesting to note: what was a better predictor of Norris winning was points+ +\-, which I tested for the past 5 years and each year was correct except 2020, in which Fox was 2nd.