2022 Offseason Game Plan

[dudacek]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

I think that salary is a definite low ball.  He is in line for a $4-5M contract with 4+ Years of term.

Seems a lot for a 40-point, 27-year-old winger who’s never actually hit that total.

NHL seems to have gone away from paying middle-6 guys in the flat cap.

Edited June 9, 2022 by dudacek

[JohnC]

On 6/8/2022 at 7:26 AM, Flashsabre said:

Calling my shot. One under the radar name I’m going to say the Sabres will show interest in is Ilya Mikheyev from the Leafs.

6’2, elite speed, scored 21 goals,  4 short handed. He was a big difference maker, especially on the PK. He is looking for more opportunity that the Leafs can’t offer and they can’t afford to sign him. He wouldn’t break the bank but he would impress. Can play up and down the lineup. Plays hard and would bring a Russian into the fold at the NHL level to help transition some of the Russian kids.

Vinnie Hinostroza would be a better value player. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Vinnie Hinostroza would be a better value player. 

Indeed.

We should bring back Hiney-Stroka for sure, unless there is a real good deal to be made for a better Stroka.

[Flashsabre]

22 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Vinnie Hinostroza would be a better value player. 

I want the better player who is Mikheyev. We should be looking to ice the best team and shoot for the playoffs then nickel and diming for “value”

Edited June 9, 2022 by Flashsabre

[GASabresIUFAN]

I find it interesting that most of the discussion is about improving the forwards.  
 

We need to solve the D and Goaltending before “fixing” the deepest part of the team.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Seems a lot for a 40-point! 27-point winger who’s never actually hit that total.

NHL seems to have gone away from paying middle-6 guys in the flat cap.

Ok.  I just looked up some actual comparables.  These are all UFA contracts that were signed in the past couple years.

Blake Coleman 4.9 x 6

Alex Wennberg 4.5 x 3

Joel Armia 3.4 x 4

Barclay Goodrow 3.6 x 6

Adam Lowry 3.25 x 5

Scott Laughton 3 x 5

Boone Jenner 3.75 x 4

Zach Hyman 5.5 x 7
 

Looking at these, I’d say that my guess of $4-5M probably is high, but maybe only by 500K.  $3.5-$4.5M on a 4+ year deal for Ilya Mikheyev seems pretty in line with recent contracts.  Most of the above contracts are also with some sort of NTC attached, full NMC in some cases.

Anyway, my original point was that $2.75-3M is not going to be near enough and I stand by that.  He will probably receive $1M more than that.  UFAs are expensive.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Curt

[dudacek]

Maybe I’m underrating Mikheyev?

To me, most of those guys are better, and the ones who aren’t got $15ish million deals.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Maybe I’m underrating Mikheyev?

To me, most of those guys are better, and the ones who aren’t got $15ish million deals.

Your not undervaluing him.  He isn't close to as good as the player listed above.  A 32 pt "breakout" season isn't worth 4+ a year.  If some is dumb enough to give him that money and term they can have him.  He is already 27, how much improvement will there be at this point?

I'd much rather give VO the 5.5 he has earned.

As to Vinnie vs Ilya, I'd rather give Vinnie 2 to 2.5 to stay and be the effective utility forward he was last year.  If I have to replace Vinnie, I'd much rather try to re-acquire Compher from Colorado.  

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Ok.  I just looked up some actual comparables.  These are all UFA contracts that were signed in the past couple years.

Blake Coleman 4.9 x 6

Alex Wennberg 4.5 x 3

Joel Armia 3.4 x 4

Barclay Goodrow 3.6 x 6

Adam Lowry 3.25 x 5

Scott Laughton 3 x 5

Boone Jenner 3.75 x 4

Zach Hyman 5.5 x 7
 

Looking at these, I’d say that my guess of $4-5M probably is high, but maybe only by 500K.  $3.5-$4.5M on a 4+ year deal for Ilya Mikheyev seems pretty in line with recent contracts.  Most of the above contracts are also with some sort of NTC attached, full NMC in some cases.

Anyway, my original point was that $2.75-3M is not going to be near enough and I stand by that.  He will probably receive $1M more than that.  UFAs are expensive.

Evolving Wild has been pretty good with contract projections in past years, they have Mikeyev at 6 years with 5 Million AAV. 
He is a good player, but His been up and down in His Three Previous Years from an analytics standpoint, Year One-good, Year Two Bad, Year Three Very Good. I like the idea of adding Russians to the Organization especially with Kisakov being signed, I would be wary of Him. 
 

I do think the Sabres should add someone in a Middle Six Role, 

Copp would be My Top Target (projected at 4 years 5.67 Million) although the Sabres would probably need to increase term and/or AAV. 
 

Others include Burakovsky, Nichushkin, Trocheck, and Niederreiter, they have have longer projected term than I would like with the exception of Trocheck who is projected at 4 years.
 

My No Way in Hell would this ever happen is Patrice Bergeron who is 3 years 7.3 Million AAV 

 

[dudacek]

No way I would spend $30 million on winger Mik if I could have centre Copp for $23.

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

I want the better player who is Mikheyev. We should be looking to ice the best team and shoot for the playoffs then nickel and diming for “value”

Determining value is an important element in making personnel decisions. Vinnie H has more value (bang for the buck) than Mikheyev has to offer. When the question is asked about what is his worth--- it is the relationship between the production and cost. Considering what he can be signed for Hinostroza would be more valued than the Toronto player. 

[Curt]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Maybe I’m underrating Mikheyev?

To me, most of those guys are better, and the ones who aren’t got $15ish million deals.

 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Your not undervaluing him.  He isn't close to as good as the player listed above.  A 32 pt "breakout" season isn't worth 4+ a year.  If some is dumb enough to give him that money and term they can have him.  He is already 27, how much improvement will there be at this point?

I'd much rather give VO the 5.5 he has earned.

As to Vinnie vs Ilya, I'd rather give Vinnie 2 to 2.5 to stay and be the effective utility forward he was last year.  If I have to replace Vinnie, I'd much rather try to re-acquire Compher from Colorado.  

Say what you like, but none of those players/contracts I listed ever put up a higher goals/game or goals/60 season than what Mikheyev just did.  He is (potentially) a 25+ goal scorer who you can play in your top 6, on a checking line, on the PK, and on the PP.  Big goal scoring winger who can play in all situations.  He is going to get paid quite a bit IMPO.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Curt

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

 

Say what you like, but none of those players/contracts I listed ever put up a higher goals/game or goals/60 season than what Mikheyev just did.  He is (potentially) a 25+ goal scorer who you can play in your top 6, on a checking line, on the PK, and on the PP.  Big goal scoring winger who can play in all situations.  He is going to get paid quite a bit IMPO.

I'm not diminishing Mikheyeve as a player and his potential. He would be an intriguing addition. However, it just seems to me that if the Sabres are going to exceed salary boundaries, I would rather it be done for a defenseman and goalie. And the next critical issue for a player such as Mikheyev is how lengthy of a contract is he going to want? Our roster is starting to take shape. Especially for the short term our biggest deficiency is in goal and the need for another second or third pairing defenseman. 

[thewookie1]

Cozen's favorite player was Toews, any interest in getting him if he's extremely cheap?

[sabresparaavida]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Determining value is an important element in making personnel decisions. Vinnie H has more value (bang for the buck) than Mikheyev has to offer. When the question is asked about what is his worth--- it is the relationship between the production and cost. Considering what he can be signed for Hinostroza would be more valued than the Toronto player. 

I’d agree with this for contracts of 3+ years. However for a 1-2 year deal, with the situation the Sabres are in currently, I’d argue that’s not the case. We have more cap space than we will use, practically guranteed. For this year, and possibly next year, the amount of $ spent on a player is not nearly as important as the production. When we get closer to the cap, that is when bang for buck becomes more important. Right now though, since we have the most cap space in the league, and since we likely won’t reach the cap, what matters more is having the best players in the roster.

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I’d agree with this for contracts of 3+ years. However for a 1-2 year deal, with the situation the Sabres are in currently, I’d argue that’s not the case. We have more cap space than we will use, practically guranteed. For this year, and possibly next year, the amount of $ spent on a player is not nearly as important as the production. When we get closer to the cap, that is when bang for buck becomes more important. Right now though, since we have the most cap space in the league, and since we likely won’t reach the cap, what matters more is having the best players in the roster.

Do you believe that Mikheyeve would go for a one or two year deal? I don't. 

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not diminishing Mikheyeve as a player and his potential. He would be an intriguing addition. However, it just seems to me that if the Sabres are going to exceed salary boundaries, I would rather it be done for a defenseman and goalie. And the next critical issue for a player such as Mikheyev is how lengthy of a contract is he going to want? Our roster is starting to take shape. Especially for the short term our biggest deficiency is in goal and the need for another second or third pairing defenseman. 

Oh, I’m not advocating for the Sabres to sign Mikheyev.  I’m just discussing the type of deal that I think he will get

[sabresparaavida]

30 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Do you believe that Mikheyeve would go for a one or two year deal? I don't. 

I wasn’t trying to say anything about a specific player’s intent to sign at a specific term. My intent was to discuss how I would value players, and how in this season  and (to a lesser degree)next season, the production from the player is significantly more important than bang for buck. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

I wasn’t trying to say anything about a specific player’s intent to sign at a specific term. My intent was to discuss how I would value players, and how in this season  and (to a lesser degree)next season, the production from the player is significantly more important than bang for buck. 

I realize you have a purer approach to evaluating players that relies on the single issue of talent. However, my point is that every franchise doesn't take that idealistic view because there is a significant financial consideration that relates to the ratio between cost and production. In a cap sport that relationship becomes even more prominent on the business side of the hockey sport. To put it simply: talent and cost are inextricably linked. You can't look at either side of the equation in isolation.  

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Oh, I’m not advocating for the Sabres to sign Mikheyev.  I’m just discussing the type of deal that I think he will get

You bring up an interesting issue (intended or not??) when discussing players and contracts. How much do you think that the Sabres will spend on their roster? Will it be close to the cap floor, middle of the cap or ceiling?  My sense (opinion) is that the Sabres are going to be closer to the floor. I'm not judging what is the right spending range because at this stage of the rebuild with so many young players there is a legitimate case to be made to hover around the floor level. 

[sabresparaavida]

20 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I realize you have a purer approach to evaluating players that relies on the single issue of talent. However, my point is that every franchise doesn't take that idealistic view because there is a significant financial consideration that relates to the ratio between cost and production. In a cap sport that relationship becomes even more prominent on the business side of the hockey sport. To put it simply: talent and cost are inextricably linked. You can't look at either side of the equation in isolation.  

They are linked, but right now, our constrictions are both the number of skaters we can add (due to a mostly full roster) , and how willing KA is to add to the roster, the cost of the players likely isn’t much of a factor due to how much cap room we have. The cap this year specifically is nearly a non-factor, as we could add 3 10 million dollar players and still fit under the cap.

[dudacek]

Sabres will spending will not be limited by an internal cap, only by a desire not to be handcuffed down the road, or to spend just because they can.

I was disappointed Adams was unable to leverage last year’s cap space into anything that could help the team. I’m hoping he will be able to do better this summer and hopeful groundwork has already been laid.

He’s so far shown himself to be responsible with his assets and finances, and to be people-friendly. We’ve yet to see him demonstrate anything I would call “clever.”

[sabresparaavida]

And if we were anywhere close to the cap, or if I thought we had a reasonable chance of being cap strapped, I’d agree, Hinostroza likely would be better value. Because we have so much cap room, the cap isn’t a limiting factor, and therefore productivity is more important than it usually would be when compared to the price of the productivity.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Sabres will spending will not be limited by an internal cap, only by a desire not to be handcuffed down the road, or to spend just because they can.

I was disappointed Adams was unable to leverage last year’s cap space into anything that could help the team. I’m hoping he will be able to do better this summer and hopeful groundwork has already been laid.

He’s so far shown himself to be responsible with his assets and finances, and to be people-friendly. We’ve yet to see him demonstrate anything I would call “clever.”

Maintaining flexibility when a majority of your assets won't maximize their value for literally years & one doesn't know which of those assets will appreciate the most significantly over that time is smart, if not necessarily "clever."  (And isn't as common sense an idea as it appears on the surface as both of his predecessors significantly reduced the options available to them by choice with far less to show for it than there should have been.)

But now that he doesn't have multiple fires to put out (other than goaltending TODAY), he needs to convert some of that flexibility into tangible value and IMHO he NEEDS to convert some of the ridiculous cap space the team has into tangible assets that will still maintain value on 7/1/23.

His letting $15MM or so of cap space last season to simply evaporate into the ether is nearly as egregious as his inability to get a legit NHL starter brought into the fold in either of the 2 previous seasons.

[JohnC]

20 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Maintaining flexibility when a majority of your assets won't maximize their value for literally years & one doesn't know which of those assets will appreciate the most significantly over that time is smart, if not necessarily "clever."  (And isn't as common sense an idea as it appears on the surface as both of his predecessors significantly reduced the options available to them by choice with far less to show for it than there should have been.)

But now that he doesn't have multiple fires to put out (other than goaltending TODAY), he needs to convert some of that flexibility into tangible value and IMHO he NEEDS to convert some of the ridiculous cap space the team has into tangible assets that will still maintain value on 7/1/23.

His letting $15MM or so of cap space last season to simply evaporate into the ether is nearly as egregious as his inability to get a legit NHL starter brought into the fold in either of the 2 previous seasons.

When you regularly have 4000-6000 lifeless fans in your building you don't need to be clever as much as you need to exhibit some urgency and seriousness of purpose. When you have such an abundance of cap space few people would want to see it unwisely squandered. Just give the fans some hope by making some judicious moves to accelerate the rebuild. If he can't come away in this offseason with a credible starting goalie (as you noted) then he should pass the torch to someone else. Overall, I like what the GM has done during his short tenure. How he has handled the goaltending position has bothered me a lot.