2022 Offseason Game Plan

[DarthEbriate]

11 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

If my math is correct, they have 91 goals in 30 games since the all star break.  3.03....better but still about 20-25 goals off (over an 82 game season) off of that 3.3 goal pace.

When Quinn adds 30 that'll help (in place of Bjork's 4).

Edited April 13, 2022 by DarthEbriate

[WildCard]

11 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

When Quinn adds 30 that'll help (in place of Bjork's 4).

I would be very happy if Quinn added 20 tbh. But Cozens should improve, so should Mitts and Oloffson. We'll have a full season of Tuch as well, and a full season of a good Dahlin. Though Thompson probably regresses our next gain is pretty hefty.

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I would be very happy if Quinn added 20 tbh. But Cozens should improve, so should Mitts and Oloffson. We'll have a full season of Tuch as well, and a full season of a good Dahlin. Though Thompson probably regresses our next gain is pretty hefty.

The Sabres are a net -58 this season.  We score about 2.75 gf and  allow 3.5 ga.  To be a playoff team, we need to improve both numbers by .5.  

Like y’all I’m pretty bullish on the offense.  I can easily see us getting the 40 goals we need to get to 3.25.  If Mitts and VO stay healthy we should get half as of that number.

The issue for me remains the goaltending and defense.  How do we eliminate 40 goals against?  

Edited April 13, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[WildCard]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres are a net -58 this season.  We score about 2.75 gf and 3.5 ga.  To be a playoff team, we need to improve both numbers by .5.  

Like y’all I pretty bullish on the offense.  I can easily see us getting the 40 goals we need to get to 3.25.  If Mitts and VO stay healthy we should get half as of that number.

The issue for me remains the goaltending and defense.  How do we eliminate 40 goals against?  

Better offense means less time in our defensive end. Power will be up, a full year of good Dahlin and Samuelson. Need goaltending to improve but a tandem of UPL and a solid vet and I'm happy.

My biggest unknown is Cozens/Mitts. Can they be reliably good 2/3 line centers.

[mjd1001]

17 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I would be very happy if Quinn added 20 tbh. But Cozens should improve, so should Mitts and Oloffson. We'll have a full season of Tuch as well, and a full season of a good Dahlin. Though Thompson probably regresses our next gain is pretty hefty.

Numbers and projections can be a tricky thing.

Lets say Quinn adds 20.  That isn't a 'pure 20', you have to think who he is replacing.  Suppose he 'replaces' a player that scored 5 or 8....that is a net positive 12? Not really. The ice time he needs to get to that 20 is going to be more than the player he likely replaces. Suppose he gets 5 more minutes per game than the player he 'replaces'. Well those 5 minutes have to come off of someone else. Lets say you have to take 5 minutes away from a player/players who score at a 12-15 goal pace.  Those 20 goals are great and needed, but you can't just add them to the bottom line without seeing what you are taking out of the lineup or who gets reduced ice time.  Maybe some of Quinns 20 goal (maybe 25 goal) ice time is PP time, and that takes away from ice time on the PP for Okposo or Olofsson?

As said above to make the playoffs you likely need to both reduce goals allowed and increase goals scored. Hopefully the Sabres CAN land a better goaltender which helps by 10 goals or more per season of that alone..and the young D-corps getting better and being able to move the puck out of the zone quicker reduces another 10-15 goals off that total (and maybe LEADS to a few more goals scored across the entire forward group simply due to more ice time in the offensive zone.)

Edited April 13, 2022 by mjd1001

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Numbers and projections can be a tricky thing.

Lets say Quinn adds 20.  That isn't a 'pure 20', you have to think who he is replacing.  Suppose he 'replaces' a player that scored 5 or 8....that is a net positive 12? Not really. The ice time he needs to get to that 20 is going to be more than the player he likely replaces. Suppose he gets 5 more minutes per game than the player he 'replaces'. Well those 5 minutes have to come off of someone else. Lets say you have to take 5 minutes away from a player/players who score at a 12-15 goal pace.  Those 20 goals are great and needed, but you can't just add them to the bottom line without seeing what you are taking out of the lineup or who gets reduced ice time.  Maybe some of Quinns 20 goal (maybe 25 goal) ice time is PP time, and that takes away from ice time on the PP for Okposo or Olofsson?

Right, and I'm not. Those are good points for sure, I'm just ball parking everything because yeah like you say, there's a lot of variables to consider and it's impossible to have a complete answer so for the sake of discussion just ball parking

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Better offense means less time in our defensive end. Power will be up, a full year of good Dahlin and Samuelson. Need goaltending to improve but a tandem of UPL and a solid vet and I'm happy.

My biggest unknown is Cozens/Mitts. Can they be reliably good 2/3 line centers.

I think the opposite is true.  Clearing the D zone faster will drive puck possession and more offense. Yes the maturing D should help just like up front.  However that isn’t enough.  I have zero confidence in UPL at this point.  I also wonder how much of an upgrade over Anderson is actually available.  To me the key is finding a top 4 RHD in trade or free agency who plays a strong D zone game.

Last I looked we were near the bottom of the league in high danger chances  against (6th most allowed) and odd man rushes allowed. Until this changes, our goalies will struggle.

Edited April 13, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Marvin]

This is where @pi2000 makes his point.

I think this is complex.  We need better defencemen.  We need better defencive play from our forwards.  We need a more structured system in the defencive zone.  We also need better goaltending.

Make no mistake: all the players we have seen flying out of the zone this year need to learn how to still push the pace while mastering the boring stuff from Asplund, Girgensons, and Okposo, among others.

[triumph_communes]

Would the Wild trade Fiala for Krebs?  He’s a bust we need to trade while value is high. It’d help their cap 

[Carmel Corn]

4 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Would the Wild trade Fiala for Krebs?  He’s a bust we need to trade while value is high. It’d help their cap 

I'd prefer to keep Krebs.  Hoping he can be part of our center spine, plus he's younger and cheaper.

[triumph_communes]

5 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

I'd prefer to keep Krebs.  Hoping he can be part of our center spine, plus he's younger and cheaper.

Exactly why the Wild bite. Sabres don’t need ten rookies

[Carmel Corn]

48 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Exactly why the Wild bite. Sabres don’t need ten rookies

IDK, the Wild have one of the best prospect pools in the league right now.  Don't forget guys like Rossi and Boldy (among others).  They may feel pretty good about their current team and their pipeline already.

[Flashsabre]

2 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Would the Wild trade Fiala for Krebs?  He’s a bust we need to trade while value is high. It’d help their cap 

Is this a joke? Or an embarrassingly bad take.

If you can’t look at Krebs and project his game in the coming years then yikes.

[Curt]

On 4/12/2022 at 10:55 PM, Carmel Corn said:

I'd like to think Asplund has more offensive upside than Eakin.  There have been some flashes of this, whereas I can think of none for Eakin.

I doubt that Asplund has more offensive upside than prime Cody Eakin.  Eakin had a 6 year run where he put up 16+ goals 4 times.  I don’t think Asplund will ever do that, but I hope he does.

[Curt]

On 4/14/2022 at 12:09 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres are a net -58 this season.  We score about 2.75 gf and  allow 3.5 ga.  To be a playoff team, we need to improve both numbers by .5.  

Like y’all I’m pretty bullish on the offense.  I can easily see us getting the 40 goals we need to get to 3.25.  If Mitts and VO stay healthy we should get half as of that number.

The issue for me remains the goaltending and defense.  How do we eliminate 40 goals against?  

I wish there were a place where I could see team goal statistics with the EN goals removed.

Anyone know of a place to find this?

[triumph_communes]

52 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Is this a joke? Or an embarrassingly bad take.

If you can’t look at Krebs and project his game in the coming years then yikes.

Despite some production he’s been a turnover king and a minus player nearly his whole career.  He projects to be not that good. 

[Flashsabre]

6 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Despite some production he’s been a turnover king and a minus player nearly his whole career.  He projects to be not that good. 

LOL his whole career LOL. My God let the kids grow and develop. The kid was WHL Player of the year coming off a severed Achilles. Give him a year or two and he will be a Doug Gilmour like player.

If Power doesn’t score next game is he out the door too? If Quinn doesn’t get 35 goals next season do we move him?

You would have run Tage out the door 2 years  ago and be completely flummoxed that he blossomed somewhere else. Young players grow, develop and improve at the NHL level.

Give it some time.

Edited April 18, 2022 by Flashsabre

[bg17]

3 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Would the Wild trade Fiala for Krebs?  He’s a bust we need to trade while value is high. It’d help their cap 

If he’s a bust, how is his value high? 

[triumph_communes]

10 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

LOL his whole career LOL. My God let the kids grow and develop. The kid was WHL Player of the year coming off a severed Achilles. Give him a year or two and he will be a Doug Gilmour like player.

If Power doesn’t score next game is he out the door too? If Quinn doesn’t get 35 goals next season do we move him?

You would have run Tage out the door 2 years  ago and be completely flummoxed that he blossomed somewhere else. Young players grow, develop and improve at the NHL level.

Give it some time.

Power is getting beat multiple times a game but has confidence and size and just needs time. Good thing the team isn’t competing right now. I’ve loved Tage since the day of the trade and knew he just needed some time. Injuries and bad coaches set him back. Any more strawmen?

 

His value is high because y’all don’t see the bust yet. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

I wish there were a place where I could see team goal statistics with the EN goals removed.

Anyone know of a place to find this?

https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?report=goalsagainstbystrength&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20212022&seasonTo=20212022&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goalsAgainst&page=0&pageSize=50  
 

Nhl.com breakdown they type of goals each teams scores and allows by type. 

[Doohicksie]

11 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

His value is high because y’all don’t see the bust yet. 

And you do?  That's laughable.

[sweetlou]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?report=goalsagainstbystrength&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20212022&seasonTo=20212022&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goalsAgainst&page=0&pageSize=50  
 

Nhl.com breakdown they type of goals each teams scores and allows by type. 

so it looks like at least 17 EN goals against.

[Norcal]

I'm starting to think there won't be many changes next year besides goaltending. 

Quinn and Peterka will replace Hiney and Eakin.

Lines could look like this:

Skinner TNT Tuch

Peterka Mitts Quinn

Asplund Krebs Oloffson

Girgensons Cozens Okposo

Bjork, maybe they sign Hiney as 13-14th F

Dahlin Muel

Power Joki

Vet? Vet?

Bryson Fitz 

??? UPL

 ???

The "vets" the team leans on will be Tuch,TNT, Skinner Okposo, Dahlin etc.

No help is coming and I donno if they need it.

Another year of maturity and continuity could be all they need.

The only thing missing is playoff experience so maybe they can find a couple playoff tested D men to wack and hack in the playoffs. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

so it looks like at least 17 EN goals against.

Yep.  We have pulled the goalie 30 times and have given up goals 17 times.  While becoming a better team will eliminate the need to pull the goalie so often, even good teams give up 10 or so a year.  

Here is where improved D and G come in.  The Sabres YTD have allowed 275 goals on 2596 shots with a save % of .894.  Pitiful! The league average is only a .902 save %.  If our goalies could save shots at just the league average it would shave 21 goals from our goals against.  Get our shot suppression to the league average even with the current goaltending it also shaves 21 goals from our goals against.  Do both, aka just get to the league average in shots allowed and save %, and we decrease our goals against per game from 3.53 to 2.99.  At a 3 gaa per game we might have even been in playoff contention most of the year.  

KA job this summer is to get real goaltending for this team.  

 

[sweetlou]

thoughts???

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3202523

I want JJ and UPL to start the year with the Amerks and be called up because they are too good. I want them to earn a spot on big club.  Of course if Husso or Korpi struggle then you can bring UPL up and give him a shot.