2022 Offseason Game Plan

[GASabresIUFAN]

With the trade deadline a week or so away, KA is already beginning the process of building his team for next year.

By my calculations the team is about 19 mill under next years cap.  He has some important roster decisions to make and he had made clear in recent statements that if he finds a piece at the trade deadline for next year he's willing to make the deal.  He is also willing to use the team's cap space to get more picks and prospects at the deadline.

There are 15 players already under contract for next season (Cap cost 41.9 mill, includes CoHo's 800K of dead money).

Wingers (8) : Tuch, Krebs (c), Quinn, KO, Skinner, Asplund (c), Girgensons (c), and Bjork

Centers (3): Thompson, Cozens and Mittelstadt

Defense (4): Dahlin, Jokiharju, Fitzgerald and Samuelsson

Key RFAs: UPL, VO, Bryson, Biro, R2 and Murray

UFAs of Note (Assuming they are here after the deadline): Pysyk (900K), Anderson (750K), Hinostroza (1.05), Tokarski (750K).

Obvious Needs: Good goaltending, 4th line center who can play up, Veteran RHD.

Offseason objective?  Is this finally the year we make a run at the playoffs?

Step 1: The trade deadline:  Who goes and who stays:  Plenty of UFAs to choose from in Anderson, Butcher, Miller, Hagg, Pysyk, Eakin, and Hinostroza.  Will RFAs like VO and Bryson or guys with term like Bjork, Girgensons or even KO be made available? I thinks it's realistic to believe 4 or 5 players from this list will be traded.  I can also see Pysyk and Hinostroza being re-signed before the deadline to help retain organizational depth.

Step 2: The College Boys: Power, Johnson and Levi should all be signed.  The question is whether Portillo will be signed as well.  I'm leaning toward signing him as well.

Now comes the hard part.  How do we get to at least the cap floor and how does KA get this team to take the next step.

My approach.  

Goaltending.  I'm trading UPL.  I don't think he has anywhere near the upside of Levi and Portillo and I also don't think he's ready for NHL backup duty.  I want Levi to be the starter in Rochester next season.  I'm  acquiring through trade or free agency two NHL experienced goaltenders.  I want KA to look at Varlomov, Talbot, and Quick, but also to look at Samsonov and Georgiev.  I'm also re-signing Houser and Tokarski to mentor Levi in the AHL and Portillo in the ECHL. 

Defense I think I have 5/6 of my starters already locked in Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, Bryson and Jokiharju.  What we need is a modern version of Toni Lydman or Teppo Numminen to partner with Power and mentor the entire young group.  This is probably the 2nd most important decision of the offseason after the goaltending.  I'd like Orlov but I don't that's realistic, but maybe Nick Jensen (Washington) or Jan Ruutta (TB) would fit the bill.  I'm also carrying 8 D this coming season. I'm also willing to include either Fitz or Bryson to help get a trade done.  If we do trade on of the them, then a 2nd vet RHD needs to be acquired or signed.

Forwards With 11 forwards already under contract and VO an RFA, it seems pretty straight forward for next season.  I hope KA doesn't go this route.  I'm ready to move on from Girgensons (who can't stay healthy) and Bjork (who stinks at hockey).  I'm also making guys like R2, Biro and Asplund available to trade to help get a deal done. We need a 4th line center and I think we can probably pry Lars Eller from the Caps.  They need to get younger and cheaper and maybe we can get Jensen and Eller in a deal.  I believe KA will re-sign VO for at least 3 years.  I wouldn't mind retaining Hinostroza.  The other trade I'd like to make is to go get Compher back.  If KA decides to trade VO, then that opens up a top 6/9 winger slot to fill in the off-season.

The moves (deadline or in season)

1) At the deadline - Trade Miller (for a 3rd), Hagg (for a 4th), Eakin (for a 5th) and Anderson (for a 3rd).

2) A 2nd and 3rd (2023) to NYI at the deadline for Varlomov.

3) Extend Pysyk and Hinostroza

4) Sign Power, Levi, Johnson and Portillo once their college seasons end.

The Moves post season)

1) trade Murray (or R2) and a pick to Colorado for Compher

2) Re-sign Olofsson

3) Girgensons (50% retained), Laaksonen and UPL and a 2nd in 2023 to Washington for Eller, Jensen and Samsonov.

4) Re-sign Houser and Tokarski

5) Waive Bjork and assign to Rochester

The Roster

Skinner, Tnt, Tuch

VO, Mittelstadt, Quinn 

Krebs, Cozens, KO

Hinostroza, Eller, Compher (Asplund 13th)

Dahlin Bryson

Power Jensen

Samuelsson Jokiharju

Pysyk Fitzgerald

Varlomov, Samsonov

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3121751

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

Varlomov has us on his NTC supposedly

UPL has done adequate in Buffalo, so I'd certainly give him a shot over Samsonov who has looked noticeably worse on a better team.

I'd give Anderson a few choices:

1. Stay here for the rest of the year

2. Get traded somewhere he wants

for next year I'd give him an option to work in player development.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Varlomov has us on his NTC supposedly

UPL has done adequate in Buffalo, so I'd certainly give him a shot over Samsonov who has looked noticeably worse on a better team.

I'd give Anderson a few choices:

1. Stay here for the rest of the year

2. Get traded somewhere he wants

for next year I'd give him an option to work in player development.

I don't think anyone has a any issue with giving Anderson a choice of quality destinations.  I'd also love to have him back as a minor league goalie coach (and emergency goaltender).  

While UPL did decent work in his games this season, I'm not sure that it was sustainable play long term.  He has yet to even hit a 900 save % in the AHL.  So far UPL's save % in  his 3 AHL seasons are 874, 888 and 897.  Compare to Ullmark's he had increasing save % of 902, 909 and then 922 before graduating to the NHL. UPL simply isn't good enough.  If he isn't NHL ready, which I suspect he isn't and we sign Levi and Portillo, UPL needs to be traded so that one of Levi or Portillo can start in the AHL and one in the ECHL. 

As to Varlamov, he has a 16 team no trade list.  It's certainly possible that the Sabres are on it, but maybe a one year extension for similar money will clear that obstacle.

Getting the right goaltending here next season is certainly going to be KA's biggest challenge; a challenge he has failed at for two straight seasons.  If I were in his shoes the patient approach has failed.  Time to be aggressive.

Edited March 14, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

I forgot about the draft. Grrrrr.

Right now we have picks 6, 17, 30 and 38.

At 6 we are probably looking at Savoie, Lambert and maybe David Jiricek?  Basically someone this is unlikely to step into the lineup immediately.  With the Sabres luck, we'll probably end up picking 8th (again).  

at 17 I'm looking at USNTDP forwards like Howard, Snuggerud (son of a former Sabre) and Nazar. Northeastern's Jack Hughes should also be of interest considering we have probably have been scouting him while following Levi's progress.

at 30 LW's like Ohgren or Ingram? Maybe another D like Bichsel or Buchinger, although one of these guys could easily fall to us at 38 depending on how the draft goes.

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't think anyone has a any issue with giving Anderson a choice of quality destinations.  I'd also love to have him back as a minor league goalie coach (and emergency goaltender).  

While UPL did decent work in his games this season, I'm not sure that it was sustainable play long term.  He has yet to even hit a 900 save % in the AHL.  So far UPL's save % in  his 3 AHL seasons are 874, 888 and 897.  Compare to Ullmark's he had increasing save % of 902, 909 and then 922 before graduating to the NHL. UPL simply isn't good enough.  If he isn't NHL ready, which I suspect he isn't and we sign Levi and Portillo, UPL needs to be traded so that one of Levi or Portillo can start in the AHL and one in the ECHL. 

As to Varlamov, he has a 16 team no trade list.  It's certainly possible that the Sabres are on it, but maybe a one year extension for similar money will clear that obstacle.

Getting the right goaltending here next season is certainly going to be KA's biggest challenge; a challenge he has failed at for two straight seasons.  If I were in his shoes the patient approach has failed.  Time to be aggressive.

Upl has a .917sv% in 9 nhl games. 

Maybe the AHL team he's been has had crappy defense

[thewookie1]

Ideally, I would want Anderson to be the goalie advisor in Rochester with Portillo and Levi as the goalies there. Houser would be re-signed but primarily sit in the ECHL as an emergency call up. Meanwhile Anderson would teach the two kids in Rochester all there is to know about NHL hockey preparation. Meanwhile you acquire/sign a goalie of Varlamov's level to platoon with UPL.

[Andrew Amerk]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

3) Girgensons (50% retained), Laaksonen and UPL and a 2nd in 2023 to Washington for Eller, Jensen and Samsonov.

 

You want to give up a veteran leader (AND PAY HALF), a solid D prospect, a solid G prospect, and a top pick up for 3 JAGs?

Why? What is your reasoning behind this?

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, The Ghost of NS said:

You want to give up a veteran leader (AND PAY HALF), a solid D prospect, a solid G prospect, and a top pick up for 3 JAGs?

Why? What is your reasoning behind this?

1) Girgensons is always hurt.  Not playing doesn't do us any good and he could use a fresh start elsewhere. The retention is what would hit the cap anyway if he is waived.

2) Eller isn't a JAG but a very solid center who can move up and down the lineup, kill penalties and add depth scoring.  He is on pace for about 14 goals and 35 points this season (current totals 9g and 23 pts).  That isn't JAG production.   JAG production is Cody Eakin with 4g 7a for 11 pts.

3) Samsonov is only 25 and still has upside, but I only want him in a tandem with another old veteran goalie to help him reach his potential which I believe is higher then UPLs.

4) Oscari is a good offensive player, but can't play defense. We need a veteran RHD to team up with Power and the odds of us needing an offensive minded D who can't play D with Dahlin and Power already on the team are zero, thereby making Oscari expendable.  Jensen on the other hand is a very good stay at home D on a very reasonable contract and is a significant upgrade on Pysyk.  Jensen has significant market value and the 2nd plus Oscari is to get him in the deal.

5) Part of this is also to get to the cap floor with players with term or control that are already NHLers.

6) UPL isn't ever going to be an NHL starter for the Sabres.  That's a bold statement, but I don't think he is NHL ready as he is currently being outplayed by Dell in Rochester.  If Levi and Portillo are signed, we need minor league starting slots to get those two the required PT to develop. If I'm correct, I'd much rather have Levi or Portillo playing in the AHL over UPL. As I believe Levi and Portillo have more upside, I view UPL as expendable. 

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Upl has a .917sv% in 9 nhl games. 

Maybe the AHL team he's been has had crappy defense

Or he played well for a short stretch in Buffalo and is really not that good, especially when you consider that in 3 seasons he's never topped 900.

Edited March 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

Girgensons is not, and never was, a player who needs a “fresh start”.  His attitude, demeanor, and effort had always been 100%.  That should never be the stated motivation for moving him.

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Or he played well for a short stretch in Buffalo and is really not that good, especially when you consider that in 3 seasons he's never topped 900.

My problem is I have to just believe you, I'd rather give UPL a chance to prove you wrong. 

How come a 9 game nhl sample is too small but a 14 game and 10 game AHL sample gets counted as 2 of his 3 ahl seasons?

[LGR4GM]

Think Portillo and Levi are better prospects but even if UPL is just an okay backup, we need that right abs next year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

My problem is I have to just believe you, I'd rather give UPL a chance to prove you wrong. 

How come a 9 game nhl sample is too small but a 14 game and 10 game AHL sample gets counted as 2 of his 3 ahl seasons?

You seem to be ignoring the 22 games this season and now 46 AHL games of mostly mediocre play. He is certainly improved but it’s not enough to simply give him an NHL job next season. If I’m deciding between UPL and Levi in the AHL next season I’m choosing Levi.

 

 

[mjd1001]

With regard to the Sabres prospects and how they are developing, players like Mitts, Cozens, etc...

There are many of us who want to rush players to the big club, and then label them as busts if they aren't superstars (or at least regulars bordering on stars)...if their first round draft status doesn't translate into that within a couple of years.

We have seen our own Buffalo Example of Tage Thompson...Its just this year he has blossomed into a player bordering on a star, and he is 24. 

-First round pick at age 18

-Didn't even play a game in the NHL until he was 20

-before until this season (where he is 24 now) he had 145 games played and 18 goals, a pace of 10 per 82 games.  This year he is on a 35 goal per 82 pace.

 

I saw a bit of the Coyotes game last night and there is another example of it taking a LONG time with some guys. Lawson Crouse.

He's 24 also, I think the 11th overall pick but up to that draft many thought he would be well inside the top 8.

-He is now playing in his 6th NHL season now. Through his first 5, most people thought he was a total bust, not even worthy of an NHL roster spot. He averaged under 14 minutes of ice time per game played and was pretty much buried on a 4th line.

-In his first 5 years:  281 games played, 36 goals, 10 goals per 82 pace (same as Tage). This year, 18g in 54g.  25 goal pace. PP time and SH time now.

 

Most of us know this, but you really cannot rush prospects.  Sometimes they turn out to be nothing, but other times, they need 5 or 6 years in the league, especially with forwards they may seem like total busts and then something clicks with them when they get close to 24 or 25 years old. For players like Krebs, Cozens, Dahlin, even Mitts, we may still only be seeing a fraction of what they will bring to this team in a couple years from now.

Edited March 15, 2022 by mjd1001

[Marvin]

@mjd1001 The problem is that we're fans.  Even coaches and GMs have longer time horizons than we do.

[Flashsabre]

1) A Real goalie. UPL and Anderson is not a plan for success.

Pay big for Kuemper on a 2 year deal if he hits UFA. Get a legit good NHL goalie who can be a workhorse. UPL has proven nothing yet. This team is ready to compete for a final playoff spot next year with consistent competent goaltending and a couple additions. One being a d partner for Power and a forward that mixes some grit and scoring.

Imagine if they added Kuemper, JT Miller and Dumba this off-season. Not probable even though they have the cap and assets to do it. Minny is going to have a ton of dead cap and Dumba’s name has popped up as a potential casualty. He has 1 more year left at $6 million. JT Miller’s name has been out there but I don’t know why the Canucks want to move him.  Kuemper will be a UFA and Avs just reupped Francouz. They might view Kuemper as a cap casualty. Sabres can overpay for him where some teams won’t be able to.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

With regard to the Sabres prospects and how they are developing, players like Mitts, Cozens, etc...

There are many of us who want to rush players to the big club, and then label them as busts if they aren't superstars (or at least regulars bordering on stars)...if their first round draft status doesn't translate into that within a couple of years.

We have seen our own Buffalo Example of Tage Thompson...Its just this year he has blossomed into a player bordering on a star, and he is 24. 

-First round pick at age 18

-Didn't even play a game in the NHL until he was 20

-before until this season (where he is 24 now) he had 145 games played and 18 goals, a pace of 10 per 82 games.  This year he is on a 35 goal per 82 pace.

 

I saw a bit of the Coyotes game last night and there is another example of it taking a LONG time with some guys. Lawson Crouse.

He's 24 also, I think the 11th overall pick but up to that draft many thought he would be well inside the top 8.

-He is now playing in his 6th NHL season now. Through his first 5, most people thought he was a total bust, not even worthy of an NHL roster spot. He averaged under 14 minutes of ice time per game played and was pretty much buried on a 4th line.

-In his first 5 years:  281 games played, 36 goals, 10 goals per 82 pace (same as Tage). This year, 18g in 54g.  25 goal pace. PP time and SH time now.

 

Most of us know this, but you really cannot rush prospects.  Sometimes they turn out to be nothing, but other times, they need 5 or 6 years in the league, especially with forwards they may seem like total busts and then something clicks with them when they get close to 24 or 25 years old. For players like Krebs, Cozens, Dahlin, even Mitts, we may still only be seeing a fraction of what they will bring to this team in a couple years from now.

@tom webster has often and correctly argued that many guys development is tied to their physical maturity. Thompson is a classic example of a talented guy who needed to grow into rather large frame.  However, he doesn’t hit these highs without opportunity.  

[mjd1001]

Let the kids develop and move into their roles.  Strategic signings for the bottom 6, with the young guys getting more chances in the top 6. No more middle aged higher prices free agents to take spots (and time) away from the young guys.

Smart signing or trade for ONE veteran D-man that might have top 4 skill to pair with one of the younger guys.

Patience.  Don't go out and trade for or sign 4 or 5 guys because they will make the team better next year.  No 'big name' guys just because we like the sound of their name or they had 1 or 2 good years a few seasons ago. 

I have no desire for a 'jt miller' type guy that so many people keep bringing up....who is going to be 30 years old and would likely make this team better NEXT year but at the expense of taking ice time away form the younger players. The team IS getting better as the young kids develop.  Don't mess with the locker room, just add one or two strategic pieces and let things develop.

Edited March 15, 2022 by mjd1001

[dudacek]

I believe the team is planning to go into the season next year with

• Thompson
• Tuch
• Skinner
• Mitts
• Okposo
• Cozens
• Krebs
• Quinn
• Girgensons
• Asplund

up front, leaving 3-4 slots open. Olofsson and Peterka might take 2 of them.

I also believe the team plans to go with

• Dahlin
• Jokiharju
• Power
• New Guy*
• Samuelsson
• Bryson
• Fitzgerald

which pretty much settles the D, except probably adding a Pysyk type for depth

UPL will be one of the goalies, along with a vet to be named later.

That vet better be a good one. We will have the cap space.

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I believe the team is planning to go into the season next year with

• Thompson
• Tuch
• Skinner
• Mitts
• Okposo
• Cozens
• Krebs
• Quinn
• Girgensons
• Asplund

up front, leaving 3-4 slots open. Olofsson and Peterka might take 2 of them.

I also believe the team plans to go with

• Dahlin
• Jokiharju
• Power
• New Guy*
• Samuelsson
• Bryson
• Fitzgerald

which pretty much settles the D, except probably adding a Pysyk type for depth

UPL will be one of the goalies, along with a vet to be named later.

That vet better be a good one. We will have the cap space.

This plan will likely leave us under the cap floor even with re-signing VO.  Signing a Pysyk type also isn’t the player KA has stated he wants to pair with Power.  I also think we need a nearly complete overhaul of the energy line. I want better players who can play up and a real center.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This plan will likely leave us under the cap floor even with re-signing VO.  Signing a Pysyk type also isn’t the player KA has stated he wants to pair with Power.  I also think we need a nearly complete overhaul of the energy line. I want better players who can play up and a real center.

We're just going to take a Ltir from someone to get to the cap floor.

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You seem to be ignoring the 22 games this season and now 46 AHL games of mostly mediocre play. He is certainly improved but it’s not enough to simply give him an NHL job next season. If I’m deciding between UPL and Levi in the AHL next season I’m choosing Levi.

No,  I'm asking why a sample size of 10 and 14 holds more value than a sample size of 9.

[Flashsabre]

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I believe the team is planning to go into the season next year with

• Thompson
• Tuch
• Skinner
• Mitts
• Okposo
• Cozens
• Krebs
• Quinn
• Girgensons
• Asplund

up front, leaving 3-4 slots open. Olofsson and Peterka might take 2 of them.

I also believe the team plans to go with

• Dahlin
• Jokiharju
• Power
• New Guy*
• Samuelsson
• Bryson
• Fitzgerald

which pretty much settles the D, except probably adding a Pysyk type for depth

UPL will be one of the goalies, along with a vet to be named later.

That vet better be a good one. We will have the cap space.

Girgs and Asplund might be odd guys out IF they want to bring in some different guys. I like both guys though so I wouldn’t mind them being back. I think they would probably like a high end Hayden. Someone who brings Hayden’s game but with better skills to go with it.

I hope they invest in a quality top 4 RHD and an NHL starter with the cap space they need to spend.

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We're just going to take a Ltir from someone to get to the cap floor.

No,  I'm asking why a sample size of 10 and 14 holds more value than a sample size of 9.

Except that is contrary to KA stated goal of getting a proven D to play/mentor Power.

While 10 games is a small sample size, 47 games of sub 900 save% is no longer a small sample size but a bad trend.  

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This plan will likely leave us under the cap floor even with re-signing VO.  Signing a Pysyk type also isn’t the player KA has stated he wants to pair with Power.  I also think we need a nearly complete overhaul of the energy line. I want better players who can play up and a real center.

You misread the Pysyk reference; they will sign a Pysyk type to be the 7/8, in addition to acquiring Power’s partner.

Signing Power, the new top 4 D, a starting goalie and 3 or 4 forwards missing from that group should get them over the cap floor.

What I posted isnt my plan for the Sabres, it’s what I am almost certain what Adams is going to do.

He’s got about a half-dozen roster spots yet to fill. I hope they are used wisely.

In my world he gets a Jay McKee, a Chris Drury, a Marty Biron, along with a Pysyk, a Hinostroza and a Deslauriers.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

You misread the Pysyk reference; they will sign a Pysyk type to be the 7/8, in addition to acquiring Power’s partner.

Signing Power, the new top 4 D, a starting goalie and 3 or 4 forwards missing from that group should get them over the cap floor.

What I posted isnt my plan for the Sabres, it’s what I am almost certain what Adams is going to do.

He’s got about a half-dozen roster spots yet to fill. I hope they are used wisely.

In my world he gets a Jay McKee, a Chris Drury, a Marty Biron, along with a Pysyk, a Hinostroza and a Deslauriers.

 

I generally agree, except I want Teppo vs Mckee.  However I would really like him to be more aggressive with the 4th line.