Confidence level

[Crusader1969]

How confident are you that the Sabres become a competitive team next year? Will games in March 2023 matter for anything except lottery position?

I’m cautiously optimistic that next year is a big step forward 

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

How confident are you that the Sabres become a competitive team next year? Will games in March 2023 matter for anything except lottery position?

I’m cautiously optimistic that next year is a big step forward 

Probably depends how we finish. 

If being in the hunt in March is the goal, even if we fall short of the playoffs we’d be ending up with high 80s/90, I’d imagine, under the scenario where we truly are in the hunt into the final full month of the season. 

If we finish with 60 something points this year, while a large jump is certainly possible - jumping 30 odd points is very statistically unlikely, looking at past history. Very uncommon to jump that much year over year 

 

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

How confident are you that the Sabres become a competitive team next year? Will games in March 2023 matter for anything except lottery position?

I’m cautiously optimistic that next year is a big step forward 

Define competitive.

If you mean close to an NHL 0.600, no, not without more than a fair amount of luck.

If you mean only having a handful or less games like vs Moe-ray-all Wednesday and being ~ an NHL 0.500, then if the goaltending is fixed or at least improved, quite confident.

[Eleven]

Oh this thread again, but with yet a different title.

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Oh this thread again, but with yet a different title.

Everything old is new again.  😉

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

How confident are you that the Sabres become a competitive team next year? Will games in March 2023 matter for anything except lottery position?

I’m cautiously optimistic that next year is a big step forward 

As @Taro T said, define competitive.

[DarthEbriate]

My overconfidence is my weakness.

But if you think this roster becomes playoff-worthy next season without a Hasek-level goalie (.930%+), you'll be disappointed.

Next season ('22-'23) is a step in the right direction. '23-'24 is when this team begins to be competitive on a night-in, night-out basis and starts to begin thinking that playoffs are an outcome.

[Gatorman0519]

Not likely for 2 more years. 

[Doohicksie]

The Amerks and Northeastern both got shelled tonight, facing a total of 115 shots in their two games.  UPL and Levi had a collective Sv% of 0.983.  Both teams won.

Not sure when we will have goaltending like that on Sabres, but it's on the way.

[pi2000]

We've been here for 10 years, I have no reason to believe next year will be any different.

They're not one, two or three players away from making a significant move up the standings.

It'll take probably 6-7 skaters, 2 goalies, and a head coach before they're competitive again... that's not going to happen in one off-season.

[GoPuckYourself]

4 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

How confident are you that the Sabres become a competitive team next year? Will games in March 2023 matter for anything except lottery position?

I’m cautiously optimistic that next year is a big step forward 

Unfortunately I think we're realistically going to have another rough season next year and we'll struggle in streaks like we have all throughout this year but I'm confident that we will be competitive and that we've found the right HC and GM, there will be improvement next season but it won't come until the season after that where we're actually vying for a playoff spot imo

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Unfortunately I think we're realistically going to have another rough season next year and we'll struggle in streaks like we have all throughout this year but I'm confident that we will be competitive and that we've found the right HC and GM, there will be improvement next season but it won't come until the season after that where we're actually vying for a playoff spot imo

Agreed. 

I think next year we stay in the conversation of playoffs longer but we're going to still miss out. 

[Buffalonill]

[sabremike]

Maybe Clever Kevyn can pull his head out of his ass and find an actual honest to God NHL quality goaltender instead of waiting another half decade to develop one. 

[ddaryl]

my confidence is tied to the 2nd half of this season. I expect a team that can trend closer to 0.500 in the 2nd half for me to have confidence.

So no I am not confident at all.... I see a team that just has no consistency and its not getting better... 

Edited February 26, 2022 by ddaryl

[SabresVet]

8 hours ago, pi2000 said:

We've been here for 10 years, I have no reason to believe next year will be any different.

They're not one, two or three players away from making a significant move up the standings.

It'll take probably 6-7 skaters, 2 goalies, and a head coach before they're competitive again... that's not going to happen in one off-season.

Need a lot of things to go right next season for them to sniff the playoffs.  Thompson like improvement for Krebs, Quinn, Cozens, and Mittelstadt.  Thompson himself taking another step.  A full season of Tuch.  Power playing well from the start, another 2 defensemen, and the goaltending gets resolved.  That's a lot if "hopefully's."

The HC still concerns me...he may be a development guy, but it's not looking good that he can match up with the league's better coaches.  Perhaps that's a lack of talent, but we're gonna find out if he's the guy for the future real soon when the expectation becomes making the playoffs as opposed to developing out of a bottom of the league team. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by SabresVet

[Gatorman0519]

We are not one or two years away from being good. Young guys have their ups and downs and it takes years to develop (See Tage) D men take years to develop. If we can get into the top 3 this draft that would help. Likely 2025 if all things go right. This team is so devoid of all the things necessary to be a winning team, they cannot be fixed overnight. 

[Thorner]

31 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

my confidence is tied to the 2nd half of this season. I expect a team that can trend closer to 0.500 in the 2nd half for me to have confidence.

So no I am not confident at all.... I see a team that just has no consistency and its not getting better... 

Yep. If we don’t see progress measured on ice in actual wins this year, the amount we can reasonably expect to see next year is significantly affected. If the team isn’t capable of winning games now, like at all, the amount of turnover that will need to (successfully!) be implemented to change things will require, as liger mentions, more years. 

Most of the roster will be back. We don’t know how adept KA will be at altering the pieces he does alter. Turnover we do undergo will be minimized relatively by the teams we are chasing ALSO seeking to improve and turnover, and the changes we do see, judging from what we’ve seen from Adams so far, will be more along the lines of the insertion of rookies (which take time) and filler JAGs. 

Especially if we are looking at another round of duck duck cheap vet, duck duck UPL in goal..it’s going to take a while, if things go right, if the base Adams gave us this season reveals itself to be about 60 something points 

- - - 

It’s exactly why I’ve been saying all year I’d take an ~ 20th place finish and a worse draft pick, rather than another base of the league finish and a high pick. 

Getting a high pick is indicative of REALLY NEEDING a high pick. That’s not a positive outcome, for me 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Thorny

[mjd1001]

I'm very confident they will be better next year than they are this year.  That doesn't mean they will make the playoffs, but I'm hoping for at least a 10 point improvement next year, maybe more, compared to this year.

UPL starting with the team next year will help, and/or another goaltender being brought in to start of backup UPL.

All the young guys (Mitts, Cozens, Dhalin, Joker, hopefully Quinn, Krebs, Asplund) should be at least slightly better.  The nature of the NHL says their stats may or may not be better, but all those guys have raw talent and they will be better with more experience.  Basically, there are more young guys on this team that matter that are maturing than they are important guys on the wrong side of 30.

The bottom 6?  It shouldn't be worse than it is now, and hopefully it will be slightly better with Roch guys graduating to the big club (bringing more talent if not more experience) or signing guys that may not be big name free agents but at least are more than minimum salary guys.

 

With the young talent coming up or continuing to mature, there is no way this team will not be better next year unless they TRY t be bad again (not happening) or they are hit with a massive wave of injuries we have never seen before.

Edited February 26, 2022 by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 hours ago, pi2000 said:

We've been here for 10 years, I have no reason to believe next year will be any different.

They're not one, two or three players away from making a significant move up the standings.

It'll take probably 6-7 skaters, 2 goalies, and a head coach before they're competitive again... that's not going to happen in one off-season.

Well we are getting there. We will have two new goalies next season; UPL plus someone else.

On defense Miller, Butcher, Hagg and probably Pysyk will all be gone replaced by Power, Samuelsson and Fitzgerald. 

At Forward Hayden, Eakin, and Caggiula are gone and likely Jankowski and Bjork as well.  Their replacements are Quinn, Krebs and probably JJP.  

The roster turnover is already happening.  The question is how long does each kid get in the NHL before the season ends to get them up to speed heading into the off-season.  For example do they limit Quinn to 9 games to slide his contract?  When do they return Samuelson, Krebs and Fitz got the AHL playoffs? 
 

 

 

[dudacek]

 My confidence level is really going to depend on how aggressively Adams attacks the off-season.

I see Mitts, Cozens, Thompson, Krebs, Skinner, Tuch, Okposo, Girgensons, Quinn, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Samuelsson, Power and Luukkonen on the team next year.

It doesn’t take a genius to see that leaves nice spaces where you could comfortably plug in a Chris Drury, Jay McKee, Teppo Numminen and Marty Biron and ice a competitive team next year.

We won’t necessarily have the opportunity, but we have the assets. My confidence will be shaped by how Adams and his “expert” hockey department demonstrates the skill and the will to go get those players or at least reasonable facsimiles.

 

[mjd1001]

As others have said, it depends on a lot of things, mostly what moves are made in the offseason.

-The Sabres are looking like a 60-65 point team this year.  Thats really bad. Only the 2 tank year teams were worse.  They actually are on a slightly worse pace for points this year than they were the year they finished last and drafted Dhalin.  But I feel a little better about this team than any of those.  Not a lot, but a little, and I'm slightly more entertained watching them.

-Next year, I expect UPL to be the main goaltended, with a decent backup. So overall I think the Goaltending situation will be slightly to moderately better than this year.

-I expect all the young guys to be slightly better. Do I think they will all take a leap in stats like Tage did this year? No, but I think they will all be at least slightly overall better players.

-I expect the bottom six to be slightly to moderately better. Either some young guys in Roch move to the big club and take those spots (less NHL experience but more talent that what is there now) or I expect some signings of not-great-but-slightly-better than what they have now guys.  probably a blend of both.

 

I do not expect the playoffs.  A large part of that, and a reason this team might be 'good' next year but even then struggle to get a point total in the 80's is the division.  This division is going to be bad for a while. Tampa and Florida are/will still be elite teams.  Toronto in the regular season is bordering on elite. (basically, 3 of the top 6 teams in the league this year are in our division).

  Boston I REALLY do think is sliding now but they are still above average.  Detroit and Ottawa have a lot of young talent and may be a year or two ahead of the Sabres on their rise up.  Montreal will not be as bad last year as they are this year.  You have a lot of division games against what will probably be the best division in hockey next year.

I'm still hoping for 80 points next year out of this team...that in another division could/might challenge for 90 points.

Edited February 26, 2022 by mjd1001

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

As others have said, it depends on a lot of things, mostly what moves are made in the offseason.

-The Sabres are looking like a 60-65 point team this year.  Thats really bad. Only the 2 tank year teams were worse.  They actually are on a slightly worse pace for points this year than they were the year they finished last and drafted Dhalin.  But I feel a little better about this team than any of those.  Not a lot, but a little, and I'm slightly more entertained watching them.

-Next year, I expect UPL to be the main goaltended, with a decent backup. So overall I think the Goaltending situation will be slightly to moderately better than this year.

-I expect all the young guys to be slightly better. Do I think they will all take a leap in stats like Tage did this year? No, but I think they will all be at least slightly overall better players.

-I expect the bottom six to be slightly to moderately better. Either some young guys in Roch move to the big club and take those spots (less NHL experience but more talent that what is there now) or I expect some signings of not-great-but-slightly-better than what they have now guys.  probably a blend of both.

 

I do not expect the playoffs.  A large part of that, and a reason this team might be 'good' next year but even then struggle to get a point total in the 80's is the division.  This division is going to be bad for a while. Tampa and Florida are/will still be elite teams.  Toronto in the regular season is bordering on elite. (basically, 3 of the top 6 teams in the league this year are in our division).

  Boston I REALLY do think is sliding now but they are still above average.  Detroit and Ottawa have a lot of young talent and may be a year or two ahead of the Sabres on their rise up.  Montreal will not be as bad last year as they are this year.  You have a lot of division games against what will probably be the best division in hockey next year.

I'm still hoping for 80 points next year out of this team...that in another division could/might challenge for 90 points.

Expect all of this is reasonable.  But, don't share your optimism that UPL will be ready to be a #1 though do expect you are right that he'll be projected there.  Do expect he'll be a legit NHLer but as a Biron - a very good backup but a poor man's starter.

Who that other G is will go a long way towards coloring what expectations should be next year.  If we're wrong & Adams does bring in a real goalie, it won't take much luck to get close to an NHL 0.600.  But if UPL & Levi are the platoon (or Portillo if he beats Levi out in camp) really expect more of the same results though the games will be more entertaining as we'll be watching those Carolina teams @Randall Flagg did all those deep dives on a few years back.

This kid keeps hoping that Adams will bring I a real goalie next year & give the players & us hope, but after 2 years of him not addressing it in any substantial manner won't expect it until he's done so.

[Weave]

Hard for me to have confidence in what the team will do next year when we have no idea if the team plans to take winning seriously any time soon.

[Hank]

My expectations for next year is low 70s and a top five pick. I'm okay with that.