Score Effects and Sabres Coaching

[LGR4GM]

I'm not sure why this happening. Thoughts?

 

[That Aud Smell]

I need more context to understand and respond.

I thought *score effects* were sort of random - puck luck? 
 

I infer from this that a team can influence the other team’s score effects? Is that a function of the quality of chances surrendered? (I thought score effects was measured without regard to such predictive measures.)

[dudacek]

28 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I need more context to understand and respond.

I thought *score effects* were sort of random - puck luck? 
 

I infer from this that a team can influence the other team’s score effects? Is that a function of the quality of chances surrendered? (I thought score effects was measured without regard to such predictive measures.)

Score effect refers to a team playing a different style depending on the score of the game. Lindy’s Alamo being the best known local example.

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Score effect refers to a team playing a different style depending on the score of the game. Lindy’s Alamo being the best known local example.

Yes, teams play differently depending on if they are tied, down, or up. It is shockingly well documented so for those who watch and say "man the Sabres took their foot off the gas in the 2nd after going up by 2 goals" you are probably 100% correct and the team is playing different. 

[That Aud Smell]

Thanks, both.

Okay. I get now why sometimes a #fancystats shrug of shoulders would be given when certain SOG disparities would occur — “meh - score effects.”

But I definitely had it conflated with a PDO-type concept.

Granato’s first challenge here is that his roster isn’t very good. Yet.

Edited February 9, 2022 by That Aud Smell

[spndnchz]

Analyst posts FYI

[Stoner]

I'll have to delve into this. It definitely doesn't seem made up.

[Taro T]

Without delving deeply, would expect a fair amount of the results can be attributed to 2 things:

1. Granato, for the most part rolls his lines far more than other teams do & has said repeatedly that he's more interested in working on the offensive aspects of the game which necessarily comes at the expense, to a degree, of the defense.  And we've seen that bite them for a few huge goals against late in games when a certain small forward has been out at the end of games when leading or when tied.  Those aren't the only time it's happened, just the most glaring.  They've not adjusted their play as much due to the score as their opponents have - and presumably when they actually care whether they win or not, we'll see some of the effects due to that philosophy lessen as there is a reason teams adjust their play in game as situations dictate - it improves their chances of winning and the Sabres will rejoin the league in that regard.  And 

2. Other teams DO adjust their game & intensity based upon the score of the game & most all of the teams the Sabres are playing this season have more talent than they have.  When a better team focuses on accomplishing a task, they tend to be more successful at that task than the lesser talented team.  And being down a goal or up by one causes most teams to focus on rectifying or continuing that situation.  And the better teams are more effective at doing that.  Expecting this will remain an issue until the kids have actually grown into their roles.

Expecting that the Sabres goalies have been giving up more than the analytics say they should give up too, which wouldn't help either.  But haven't seen those stats, so that guess could be way off.  (Guesses oftentimes are. 😉 )

 

[pi2000]

I believe this is because when teams get down a goal to Buffalo they decide to go on the attack and are able to take the game over relatively easily as Coach Granato doesn't put a priority on teaching these kids how to play effective team defense. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Until we get capable goaltending, better defensive D and more depth upfront, none of the advanced stats mean anything.  All they show is that the Sabres aren't good at pretty much anything except effort.  

The Sabres have played 45 games with season.  Below replacement goaltenders have played in 33 (29 starts).

11 D have suited up for the Sabres including terrible in zone defenders Miller (32 gp) and Butcher (31), coupled with mediocre players Hagg (35), and Pysyk (45), as well as rookies Samuelsson (21) and Fitzgerald (14).  Not exactly the who's who of quality defensive play.

Now add JAGs or other expendable forwards like Caggiula (18), Bjork (40), Hayden (37), Jankowski (14), Eakin (40), and Hinostroza and you have a recipe for bad hockey. 

Frankly with all the injuries, COVID and youth, it's amazing this team isn't in 32nd place in the NHL.   

As of right now this is the most common lineup for this season

Forwards:

Skinner Thompson Hinostroza

VO Cozens Okposo

Asplund Eakin Murray

Bjork Girgensons Hayden

Defense:

Dahlin Pysyk

Hagg Miller

Bryson Butcher

Goaltenders:

Tokarski Dell

 

Looking at that roster, is there really any question as to why this team has terrible advanced metrics?

Edited February 9, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[IKnowPhysics]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Until we get capable goaltending, better defensive D and more depth upfront, none of the advanced stats mean anything. 

...

Looking at that roster, is there really any question as to why this team has terrible advanced metrics?

"Advanced stats are meaningless... there's no question why we have bad advanced stats."

 

 

Let's reword that thought as "I think the roster's bad enough that roster improvement would make a bigger impact than analytics-driven game situation coaching decisions" and call it square.

[IKnowPhysics]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm not sure why this happening. Thoughts?

My first thought would be to look at any differences in personnel usage in those situations.  Granato typically doesn't linematch, so if he shifted 5v5 personnel based on game situation it would be notable. Not just defense, but forwards too.  I'd also look for turn over and takeaway rates- are we giving up the puck or are we not taking away the puck compared to our average?

[PerreaultForever]

There's a simple answer that skews the stats. 

Teams see Buffalo and come in thinking it's an easy win and they won't have to work too hard. They fall behind and then they start to take it up a notch. Has more to do with what they do than what we do. We have to take it up a notch when they do, and we don't, or can't. 

We play horrible team D and often fall apart late as a result. I'm sure the stats show that we are much worse in the 3rd than the 1st most nights. 

 

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes, teams play differently depending on if they are tied, down, or up. It is shockingly well documented so for those who watch and say "man the Sabres took their foot off the gas in the 2nd after going up by 2 goals" you are probably 100% correct and the team is playing different. 

Score effects are showing up to my eye this season a ton, maybe the product of a young team. The “took foot off the gas” thing for sure but a ton when we’ve been behind, as well. I don’t think the youth on the team quits, so when we get behind by 3 goals or so and the other team becomes subject to those score effects, we are, at least anecdotally imo, seeing the Sabres battle back a lot 

4 hours ago, pi2000 said:

I believe this is because when teams get down a goal to Buffalo they decide to go on the attack and are able to take the game over relatively easily as Coach Granato doesn't put a priority on teaching these kids how to play effective team defense. 

Agree 

[Curt]

On 2/9/2022 at 5:50 AM, LGR4GM said:

I'm not sure why this happening. Thoughts?

First of all, score effects are a thing that affects all teams, so if you bring ups this same chart for any team, you will see differences depending on the score of the game.  So, first question is how far outside of the norm are these numbers?  I don’t have any context.

With that being said, based on what I’ve watched this season, I would suspect that they are in fact fairly extreme. I’ve seen a team that tries hard consistently but is young, has below average talent, and often doesn’t execute well.

I agree with what some others have said.  Many teams seem to go into games against Buffalo hoping that they can win while only giving 85%, either by capitalizing on youthful mistakes or by scoring bad goals on bad goalies.  Buffalo is sometimes able to outplay these teams by giving 100% vs their 85%.  However, if Buffalo gets ahead, the other team turns it up from 85 to 100% and generally smokes them. (see, last night)

I think the issue on display is that this team doesn’t execute well when really under pressure from the opposition.  I don’t think that is surprising considering the age of the key players and the overall talent level.  I believe that as more talented players filter in, and as all the top young players gain experience, this will improve.

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, Curt said:

First of all, score effects are a thing that affects all teams, so if you bring ups this same chart for any team, you will see differences depending on the score of the game.  So, first question is how far outside of the norm are these numbers?  I don’t have any context.

With that being said, based on what I’ve watched this season, I would suspect that they are in fact fairly extreme. I’ve seen a team that tries hard consistently but is young, has below average talent, and often doesn’t execute well.

I agree with what some others have said.  Many teams seem to go into games against Buffalo hoping that they can win while only giving 85%, either by capitalizing on youthful mistakes or by scoring bad goals on bad goalies.  Buffalo is sometimes able to outplay these teams by giving 100% vs their 85%.  However, if Buffalo gets ahead, the other team turns it up from 85 to 100% and generally smokes them. (see, last night)

I think the issue on display is that this team doesn’t execute well when really under pressure from the opposition.  I don’t think that is surprising considering the age of the key players and the overall talent level.  I believe that as more talented players filter in, and as all the top young players gain experience, this will improve.

I disagree with this example. Last night Buffalo continued to pressure Columbus deep into the 3rd but shoddy goaltending doomed them. 2 of the 4 goals last night were bad and I think Buffalo actually matches up fairly well with Columbus on the talent scale. 

[SwampD]

So, when the Sabres go up. The other team shortens their bench and puts their best players on the ice.as do the Sabres when they are down. Thats hockey. Yep stats meets the eye test.

not sure why that is “dire”

Other than we continue to be shown that we need more talent.

Edited February 13, 2022 by SwampD

[matter2003]

Probably doesn't help that the ridiculous amount of injuries has forced a new lineup almost every night and the rotating goaltenders down to the 5th/6th string aren't helping either.