LGR4GM Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 Quote They’re fourth-worst in shot quality for per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 and 18th-worst in shot quality against per 60 minutes. If you’re a visual person, let me show how that looks below in Micah McCurdy’s model. 1
Sabres Fan in NS Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 Seems a bit harsh. A firey death does not sound like fun.
woods-racer Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, LGR4GM said: I read the article. He put numbers to what we all see, that the two absolutely don't complement each other and apart are better both by eye and statistically. He wants Joker with the Muel and Dahlin with Fitz. I would love for Donny to try it in a season that doesn't count and wins don't matter. Edited February 2, 2022 by woods-racer 3
DarthEbriate Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 They're both need a stable veteran who can cover mistakes. And they've both needed it for the last couple seasons. Dahlin has looked solid with Pysyk. And way back when, Joker looked good with Scandella. Now, Joker and Scandella's early stats went downhill, as did the rest of the team, once the hot start faded and the goaltending dried up. Then, Scandella was moved for a 4th for Frolik after Bogo returned. Joker then was splitting time Montour and McCabe when instead maybe he should have been sent down to Rochester. (I think he was still waivers-exempt that first season.) There, he could've gotten top 4 minutes with Borgen, Bryson, and Redmond and honed his game for an entire AHL season. The thing I'm seeing is Dahlin-Joker on the PK. And I get it... they're learning all the roles and everyone's playing every situation. It's just ugly when the two of them are out on the PK this season. 1 1
dudacek Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 I doubt Rasmus and Henri are this team's future number one pairing. But I think it's best for Dahlin to be playing tough minutes against tough opponents. And I think it's best for Jokiharju to be playing tough minutes against tough opponents. I think the most important thing about this season is development. So while I'm not entirely against the premise of this thread I'm watching the situation with a bit of a different lens.
Marvin Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 The only logic I can think of for this pair is that they are learning how to work defencively with another offencive defenceman because they both have a lot of potential. I personally would pair Dahlin with Pysyk and Jokiharu with Samuelsson. I'm boring that way. 2
PerreaultForever Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 Yup, without a doubt. Been saying this since they got put together. Joker is NOT a top pairing D man and shouldn't be. We really really need to add a strong, good in his own zone RHD, ideally 2. 1
GASabresIUFAN Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 Maybe our GM with acquire a quality RHD to play with him? Maybe? Possibly?
PerreaultForever Posted February 2, 2022 Report Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said: Maybe our GM with acquire a quality RHD to play with him? Maybe? Possibly? I, and you, and many others here certainly hope he does, but I don't think he will. This off season (and maybe earlier with the deadline) will tell us a lot about their actual plan and time line. We think it's high time to leap forward, they might think keep on tankin' for one more year. Will be determined by 1. Getting a decent veteran goalie 2. at least one solid RHD 3. other additions to fill out the roster We shall see. 2
dudacek Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 I think development and the future will still take precedence over right now next year in terms of the way the Sabres do business. As in they won’t be using significant assets or cap space to acquire much in the way of proven veterans. We are going to watch a lot of Mitts-Tage-Tuch-Asplund-Cozens-Krebs-Quinn-Peterka-Dahlin-Jokiharju-Power-Samuelsson-Luukkonnen, in pretty significant roles, supplemented by a handful of vets. I doubt any of those vets will be as good as Tuch, hopefully most will be more Okposo than Hayden. Whether that is tanking or not I guess is in the eye of the beholder. To my mind they want to and expect to improve, but are planning for much of the improvement to come from within. 1
PerreaultForever Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, dudacek said: I think development and the future will still take precedence over right now next year in terms of the way the Sabres do business. As in they won’t be using significant assets or cap space to acquire much in the way of proven veterans. We are going to watch a lot of Mitts-Tage-Tuch-Asplund-Cozens-Krebs-Quinn-Peterka-Dahlin-Jokiharju-Power-Samuelsson-Luukkonnen, in pretty significant roles, supplemented by a handful of vets. I doubt any of those vets will be as good as Tuch, hopefully most will be more Okposo than Hayden. Whether that is tanking or not I guess is in the eye of the beholder. To my mind they want to and expect to improve, but are planning for much of the improvement to come from within. I don't want you to be right, but I think this is true. My objection to that plan is that "development" has to also include winning. Or at least competing and feeling you have a chance to win. A hard working player watching a goalie like Dell let in everything at some point will start to think why am I breaking a sweat? They need to win the fans back as well. It's time, before they kill it completely. 1 2
dudacek Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said: I don't want you to be right, but I think this is true. My objection to that plan is that "development" has to also include winning. Or at least competing and feeling you have a chance to win. A hard working player watching a goalie like Dell let in everything at some point will start to think why am I breaking a sweat? They need to win the fans back as well. It's time, before they kill it completely. They need to win more, and to win fans back, agreed. It’s why I can’t see a bottom 5 finish next year as an intended tank, more like a misreading of what they have and what they added. Edited February 3, 2022 by dudacek 1
Taro T Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, dudacek said: I think development and the future will still take precedence over right now next year in terms of the way the Sabres do business. As in they won’t be using significant assets or cap space to acquire much in the way of proven veterans. We are going to watch a lot of Mitts-Tage-Tuch-Asplund-Cozens-Krebs-Quinn-Peterka-Dahlin-Jokiharju-Power-Samuelsson-Luukkonnen, in pretty significant roles, supplemented by a handful of vets. I doubt any of those vets will be as good as Tuch, hopefully most will be more Okposo than Hayden. Whether that is tanking or not I guess is in the eye of the beholder. To my mind they want to and expect to improve, but are planning for much of the improvement to come from within. Pretty sure this is spot on. The interesting thing is, they'll have to spend some money on somebody, unless cap hits they bring on this trade deadline have a year to go on their deals, to get to the floor. Keep hoping it's going to be spent on a goalie, but could very well see them planning on going w/ UPL & Levi if he continues to look good down the stretch. Want that money on a goalie because this team should be entertaining next year if they can actually trust the goaltending. And if 2 of the 3 kids move past that guy, trade him at some point for something else they need. At least for the 1st time in seemingly forever, it doesn't look like rejoining relevancy will be moving farther away again this off-season. (The COVID off-season not withstanding which teased us w/ the possibility of relevance) Just, w/out a goalie, it won't be getting appreciably closer either. REALLY want them to be relevant THIS coming year, even though they'll likely miss the dance again.
LGR4GM Posted February 3, 2022 Author Report Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Cascade Youth said: Why fiery?
Indabuff Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Cascade Youth said: Why fiery? To make sure it doesn't come back.
Believer Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Taro T said: Pretty sure this is spot on. The interesting thing is, they'll have to spend some money on somebody, unless cap hits they bring on this trade deadline have a year to go on their deals, to get to the floor. Keep hoping it's going to be spent on a goalie, but could very well see them planning on going w/ UPL & Levi if he continues to look good down the stretch. Want that money on a goalie because this team should be entertaining next year if they can actually trust the goaltending. And if 2 of the 3 kids move past that guy, trade him at some point for something else they need. At least for the 1st time in seemingly forever, it doesn't look like rejoining relevancy will be moving farther away again this off-season. (The COVID off-season not withstanding which teased us w/ the possibility of relevance) Just, w/out a goalie, it won't be getting appreciably closer either. REALLY want them to be relevant THIS coming year, even though they'll likely miss the dance again. I don’t think they can afford to “plan” to miss the playoffs next year… What would that be??… 12 years straight??… No… Don’t think Adams expects to miss the playoffs next year… He will make some moves, my bet… Bringing a few talented, high character vets from winning programs… May cost a couple of our talented kids and a couple future high draft picks… Expecting strategic movement… Adams will give Granato and the core some help…
IKnowPhysics Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 I did some digging. The author points out that the Dahlin-Joker pairing fails to generate high danger shots and allows a lot of high danger shots. This is true. But you can't fix the problem if you don't look at the big picture. Every pair should be examined and how the whole team performance is impacted. Other lineups of pairs could be worse- and some of them are. I'll spare you the math. The Sabres are in a tough spot defensively, but there are ways to improve. With Butcher out, the Sabres go-to defense pairings of Dahlin-Joker/Bryson-Miller/Hagg-Pysyk appear to be designed to minimize xGA/60 (under the constraints that lefties play with righties). Compared to other possible lineups, it's about the best set of pairs you can make with those six players for minimizing team-wide mean xGA/60. It's also not the worst lineup for minimizing CA/60. It's had the outcome of doing an ok job minimizing GA/60 and HDGA/60 compared to other lineups. If what the Sabres are doing is intentional and data-driven, then it's clear that the pairs are setup specifically to prevent goals. However, this focus on xGA/60, CA/60, and GA/60 comes at a cost: this lineup is worse than some other possible lineups in several other key areas, including CF/60, xGF/60, GF/60, HDCF/60, HDCF%, HDGF%. The current pairings are absolutely eating it on the offensive side of the puck. Optimizing for as many categories as possible, emphasizing CF%, GF%, xGF%, and HDCF%, the defense pairs should be, in no particular order: Bryson-Joker Hagg-Miller Dahlin-Pysyk This will have the following effect of improving almost every area (CF/60, CF%, GF/60, GF%, xGF/60, xGF%, HDCA/60, HDCF%, HDGF, and HDGF%), with the biggest increases to CF/60, CF%, while holding mostly steady on some others (CA/60, xGA/60, SCF/60, SCA/60, HDCA/60, and HDGA). Some of the biggest impact include: Increasing CF/60 from 48.9 to 57.4 Increasing GF/60 from 1.69 to 3.75 Increasing HDGF/60 from 0.98 to 2.12. The good news is that the data suggests that Sabres may be able to increase offense by changing up the pairs to what's above. The bad news is that data suggests our defensive side of the puck doesn't get much better no matter what defensive lineup we put out. 3
TN Dan Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 Until Dahlin works as hard in the defensive end as he does in offensive end no pairing with him is going to work.
Taro T Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 14 hours ago, Believer said: I don’t think they can afford to “plan” to miss the playoffs next year… What would that be??… 12 years straight??… No… Don’t think Adams expects to miss the playoffs next year… He will make some moves, my bet… Bringing a few talented, high character vets from winning programs… May cost a couple of our talented kids and a couple future high draft picks… Expecting strategic movement… Adams will give Granato and the core some help… Adams doesn't wear the 1st 9 years of playoff misses & the 10th was following a direction he doesn't seem to have wanted to go but followed anyway, so he seems to have garnered a mulligan from ownership for that. This should be year 2 of his rebuild, but expect he's sold it as year 1. He's not getting punted for missing the dance in year 2 of his preferred rebuild plan regardless how much we might believe that is too much rope for anyone to get. And they aren't dumping any of the "talented kids" for anything much short of McDavid. Would be absolutely shocked to see Dahlin, Power, Krebs, Mittelstadt, Quinn, Peterka, Cozens, or any of the 3 prospect goalies in a trade.
LGR4GM Posted February 3, 2022 Author Report Posted February 3, 2022 15 hours ago, Believer said: I don’t think they can afford to “plan” to miss the playoffs next year… What would that be??… 12 years straight??… No… Don’t think Adams expects to miss the playoffs next year… He will make some moves, my bet… Bringing a few talented, high character vets from winning programs… May cost a couple of our talented kids and a couple future high draft picks… Expecting strategic movement… Adams will give Granato and the core some help… What an awful idea
Pimlach Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 22 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said: Maybe our GM with acquire a quality RHD to play with him? Maybe? Possibly? For $750k ?
Pimlach Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 (edited) 16 hours ago, Believer said: I don’t think they can afford to “plan” to miss the playoffs next year… What would that be??… 12 years straight??… No… Don’t think Adams expects to miss the playoffs next year… He will make some moves, my bet… Bringing a few talented, high character vets from winning programs… May cost a couple of our talented kids and a couple future high draft picks… Expecting strategic movement… Adams will give Granato and the core some help… They should never plan to lose but the plan you’re talking about sounds close to what Murray did, a good plan for an NFL TEAM. Unfortunately Murray’s vets didn’t help and the loss of picks and prospects stunted our development pipeline for years. Next year you add a lower cost dependable NHL goalie to share the pipes with UPL. Adding a solid RHD stay at home type defenseman would help a lot too. You don’t have give up a lot or spend a lot either. These players are transition players. Edited February 3, 2022 by Pimlach
IKnowPhysics Posted February 3, 2022 Report Posted February 3, 2022 16 hours ago, Believer said: I don’t think they can afford to “plan” to miss the playoffs next year… What would that be??… 12 years straight??… No… Don’t think Adams expects to miss the playoffs next year… He will make some moves, my bet… Bringing a few talented, high character vets from winning programs… May cost a couple of our talented kids and a couple future high draft picks… Expecting strategic movement… Adams will give Granato and the core some help… I think they tried this under Murray and didn't like the results. I also think the Bills tried this and it didn't work. Then I think the Bills saw progress with organic "process" and development. And I think that's what is being sought after with Adams, Granato, young good players, and high draft picks. I'm not saying this will fix all woes and we won't need to make trades to finish the puzzle when it's almost done, but it's not nearly done yet and I don't think Adams will leverage the future to force it. The "12 years" bit is a sunk cost fallacy. The team needs to improve the best way possible, regardless of how many years they've been out. 2
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