Cozens vs Zegras. Did we draft the right guy?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Cozens is developing nicely but Zegras has become a star.  We took Cozens at 7 while Zegras slipped to 9th in the 2019.  In the 2019 U18's Caufield and Hughes dominated for the US with 17 points each.  Krebs lead the Canadians with 10 points, while Cozens (3,5) and Zegras (0,8) had 8 points each.  (Note: they also had 9 points each in the 2020 World Jrs - Cozens (2,7) and Zegras (0,9). )

NHL performance -

Cozens 80gp 14g 19a 33 pts; This year 39gp 10g 10a 20 points. (42 pt pace)

Zegras 64gp 15g 30a 45 pts; This year 40gp 12g 20a 32 points. (66 pt pace)

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/nhl-entry-draft-picks-2019/2019/6/21/18692160/2019-nhl-draft-rankings-consensus-hughes-kakko-bob-mckenzie-athletic-hockey-prospects

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-caufield-scores-his-way-into-top-5-1.1316942

https://www.tsn.ca/americans-set-to-dominate-first-round-of-the-nhl-draft-1.1323878

As a reference EOTP did a draft consensus rankings and had Zegras 5th, Cozens 7th (Krebs 8th).  McKenzie in his NHL exec survey had Cozens 6th and Zegras 7th (Krebs 10th). Button (for what it's worth) had Zegras 6th, Krebs 8th and Cozens 14th.

The scouting reports prior to the 2019 draft described Zegras as an elite playmaker and Cozens as a mature two way player.

Given the Sabres' needs back in 2019, was Dylan the correct draft pick?  At that time, Jbot's Sabres had Jack and Sam and had moved on from ROR.  Jbot had drafted or acquired Skinner, Thompson, Dahlin and Mitts.

I think there are strong arguments that we needed a playmaking center and a two way center.  Was this a case of taking the best player available given the depth of talent available in the 2019 draft?

Right now I'm siding with taking Cozens.  Putting myself in Jbot's shoes, I think he'd have wanted a long-term ROR replacement with Jack as his No. 1 center, Mitts as his No 2. and Cozens manning the 3rd scoring/defensive line.

Thoughts?

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

Will Zegras be the better offensive player? Almost certainly. Will Cozens be as good, when considering the totality of their on-ice games? I think there’s a good chance of that. I don’t think when Botterill made the pick he’d have been surprised if someone told him Zegras would be more prolific offensively. 

If Zegras ends up the better player, I won’t look poorly upon the selection, not if Cozens develops into a really good player. It’s not logical to think the player you draft will be better than every single one that comes after.

[Doohicksie]

Doesn't matter.  What's done is done.

[Marvin]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Will Zegras be the better offensive player? Almost certainly. Will Cozens be as good, when considering the totality of their on-ice games? I think there’s a good chance of that. I don’t think when Botterill made the pick he’d have been surprised if someone told him Zegras would be more prolific offensively. 

If Zegras ends up the better player, I won’t look poorly upon the selection, not if Cozens develops into a really good player. It’s not logical to think the player you draft will be better than every single one that comes after.

As long as the player you took is not too far removed from "normal" around that pick, I can't really criticise it.  Even of not, if the pick made sense at the time, I am not too hard on it.  No one is clairvoyant enough to get every pick perfect.  XGMJB did fine with that pick.

[Thorner]

On another point you alluded to, I do think it’s interesting to think about where the playmaking is going to come from, particularly at centre ice. You may not need a dominant pass first player in the middle, or on the roster, but just looking at who’s in the system, for interest’s sake - 

Cozens and Thompson, at C, both certainly seem to be more of the 1G per 1A variety of player. 

Quinn also appears to be in that mould. Skinner of course. 

Looking at the current roster, it’s a defenceman that’s leading the team in assists, by a fair margin. There isn’t a forward that close relatively. Our top F scorers find themselves weighted towards the “goals” side (Tage, Skinner). 

It’s two wingers who come first for the assists leaders among forwards, Okposo and interestingly enough, Olofsson. If there’s going to be a big Playmaker who’s in the system already, it’ll probably have to be Krebs in my estimation - he seems to be that pass first guy. Peterka, maybe? 

Casey to me ends up more balanced in production as well but I could be swayed on that. 

Who’s the best playmaking C in the coming draft?  

3 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

Doesn't matter.  What's done is done.

/Thread

lol 

[French Collection]

Today Zegras is the sexier pick, with more offense and highlight reel material. Zegras did best him head to head in the Gold medal game of the WJHC.

As long as Cozens continues to develop the right way his numbers will be fine. Tough to measure things like leadership, physicality and others could make this a wash. Some day Dylan will ride in on his white horse and deliver some playoff magic.

Zegras’ Spicoli  vibe is perfect for California.

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

Doesn't matter.  What's done is done.

Agree.

I really really really …. At this point couldn’t care less about what if’s. I couldn’t care less about getting a different shiny toy after the fact. Cozens is my horse from Whitehorse. Until he’s not.

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

NHL performance -

Cozens 80gp 14g 19a 33 pts; This year 39gp 10g 10a 20 points. (42 pt pace)

Zegras 64gp 15g 30a 45 pts; This year 40gp 12g 20a 32 points. (66 pt pace)

 

 

It is way too early in both players development to make a final conclusion now.  I'm not saying Mitts is going to be a star, but we saw nothing out of him until the flashes we saw last year on the 2nd half of his 4th year after his draft.  On the other side you have a player like Dylan Larkin who was drafter only 15th in the first round and was productive from day one in the NHL.

It is hard to judge a 1st rounder based on his production until 'usually' year 3-4 at least.  Too many times young guys who were 1st round picks scored 10-15 goals a year at best, then when they hit that 22 or 23 year old mark their production shoots up to 25+ goals.

[Weave]

6 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Agree.

I really really really …. At this point couldn’t care less about what if’s. I couldn’t care less about getting a different shiny toy after the fact. Cozens is my horse from Whitehorse. Until he’s not.

Yeah, last thing I wanna do is fuss over whether we drafted a guy one spot too early.  As long as he develops as expected I’m pretty happy.

[Buffalonill]

I wanted newhook in the draft year Cozens is basically our RNH hes ok nothing special but gets it done 

[Huckleberry]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I wanted newhook in the draft year Cozens is basically our RNH hes ok nothing special but gets it done 

That is very sad point of view.

I personally wanted to Zegras back in the day, but I look at it as Cozens will develop as the 2C-3C that will stop guys like Zegras with ease.

[LGR4GM]

Yes, Zegras is better. 

47 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That is very sad point of view.

I personally wanted to Zegras back in the day, but I look at it as Cozens will develop as the 2C-3C that will stop guys like Zegras with ease.

No one is going to stop Zegras with ease

[Huckleberry]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes, Zegras is better. 

No one is going to stop Zegras with ease

Yeah I know, I think you wanted us to draft him as well.  

[PerreaultForever]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes, Zegras is better. 

No one is going to stop Zegras with ease

Might I remind you about this game of Cozens vs. McDavid

https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401349339

and Cozens is still improving.

Unless of course your argument is that Zegras is better than McDavid, then you might be right. 

[Digger]

Too soon to tell in my opinion.  I don't have any complaints with Cozens to date.  He's a long ways from his peak years and I don't buy that the team plans to make him a 3rd line shut down center.  It's part of his development and training sure but that's not the end goal in my opinion.

Look at who went ahead of Cozens and Zegras in that draft. 

Hughes (1), Kakko (2), Dach (3), Byram (4), Turcotte (5), Seider (6), Cozens (7), Broberg (8), Zegras (9). 

Some are some pretty good players in the list and others have been slower to develop.  You can argue that maybe we could have drafted someone better but there are certainly teams that wish they would have taken Cozens too. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

Look at the supporting cast on each team. 

None of these stats mean that much when you're looking at the bottom feeder buffalo has been. Cozens would almost certainly have better "numbers" if half our lineup wasn't just JAG's. 

I don't put any stock into the differences until we have a competitive team to ice. 

[dudacek]

Cozens went 7th, Zegras 9th.

Hughes is breaking out and probably still goes 1st right now a redraft.

Zegras probably 3rd after Seider (who went 6th)?

Kakko, Cozens , Byram and Dach are probably the next 4 and are probably on a tier.

Turcotte and Broberg look like the questionable picks.

Lots of time for this group to reset.

[dudacek]

Weird thing is, I’m pretty sure the Sabres went in to that draft targeting Zegras with Caufield high on their list if Zegras was snatched earlier.

Cozens was a guy who they thought was gone in the top 5 and him being there caught them by surprise.

[LGR4GM]

Alex Newhook just quietly being good in the background

[DarthEbriate]

They both have Zs in their names and they're both excellent young players. Zegras is more exciting. Cozens is more physical. Some other notes on their performance this season that may indicate why Zegras looks better overall and scores more points this season:

Cozens' linemates: everybody! He did get a brief look at the top line with Skinner/Tuch before Mitts and Thompson were back in the lineup from INJ/COVID. But last night his starting wingers were Butcher/Hayden in a 3rd line role.

Zegras' linemates: Henrique and Rakell. Established scoring line veterans. 

Cozens: 58.0% oZS; 15:55 TOI 

Zegras: 73.7% oZS; 17:28 TOI

[North Buffalo]

Zegras better handle... But Sabres have Mitts and Krebs... Cozens better 2 way and not a defensive liability

Edited January 30, 2022 by North Buffalo

[DarthEbriate]

And Cozens is being asked to grind against McDavid. I'd be willing to bet Anaheim is not line-matching Zegras against McDavid on defensive zone starts.

[LGR4GM]

Cozens is fine, don't worry about him. 

[Derrico]

I like the makeup of these young guys.  Different types with different skill sets. 
 

We have the skilled playmakers in Mitts and Krebs, scorer in Quinn.  I’m very pleased knowing we also have that 2-way C you can throw out there with a one goal lead late in the game.  Cozens is a nice player and I’m excited to see what he becomes with this new core.

 

 

[Claude Balls]

Do the Sabres ever draft the "right guy"??