Currently, I'm not sure defense is a strength

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Absolutely true. As good as I think Power will be he is likely 3 to 4 years away from being an NHL force. Dahlin has flaws and needs better players around him to cover up for those mistakes. I can see Samuelsson being a solid defender and without an upgrade(s) Pysyk is a third pairing guy but like you said Jokiharju is not a top pairing defender. I'm not even sure he's second pairing. 

As much as Risto made many horrible mistakes, we didn't replace him, and thus there's a right side hole. We need a big bruising solid RHD who can be relied on for tough defensive minutes. Don't see how we're going to get that either. 

I suspect they will expect and ask for too much too soon from Power as they have done with every top drafted D man over the last decade. Hope I'm wrong on that. 

I felt the same amount of desire to replace Risto when he was here as I do now. I suppose we could use another 2nd pair level D man on the right side but really it’s a righty that can play on the top pair, adequately, that we need, that we don’t have, that we still didn’t have when Risto was here. Even a GOOD 2nd pair RHD would go a mile as I don’t think Risto was that. With proper usage maybe he’d be an average 2nd pair guy.

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

I don't believe acquiring better defensively capable defensemen will help.   

In today's game it's paramount to play sound TEAM defense.    ALL players need to buy in and focus on defensive play as much or moreso than focusing on creating offense.  

Unfortunately, they've shown very little (if any) progress in that area.     Only Granato and his staff can fix it... do they know how?   I don't believe so, which is why I don't believe (never have) that he's a long term solution at the HC position.     

Do better.

Interesting take. With all the problems this season, the new players and goaltending issues, it’s probably been a strain to build chemistry. Will take time

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Currently, I'm not sure defense is a weakness.

With many good looking (😎) D prospects coming along I want the draft focus to be at F and G.  Take a goalie dammit.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, The Ghost of Doohickie said:

Currently, I'm not sure defense is a weakness.

With many good looking (😎) D prospects coming along I want the draft focus to be at F and G.  Take a goalie dammit.

In which round?

[Dreams Burn Down]

2 hours ago, The Ghost of Doohickie said:

Currently, I'm not sure defense is a weakness.

With many good looking (😎) D prospects coming along I want the draft focus to be at F and G.  Take a goalie dammit.

I see it similarly.  I want to see more toughness and grit in our defense, but I can say that about our entire current on-ice roster.  IMO, until we are able to establish a true replacement for Ryan Miller in net, we will not advance to any meaningful next steps.

[IKnowPhysics]

5v5, Sabres are 16th in CA/60, 21st in HDCA/60, and 18th in xGA/60.  Not exactly the biggest strength, more middle-of-the-road, but D is definitely not the most deficient area on the team (and it could possibly be the strongest area currently)...

The goalies are probably the biggest problem, which is why we're also 26th in both GA/60 and HDGA/60.  Goalies are at 24th in SV% and 23rd in HDSV%.

Sabres offense is also an enormous problem: we're 26th in CF/60, 31st in HDCF/60, 23rd in GF/60, and 32nd in xGF/60.  We're not generating enough 5v5 offense, and when we are, it's not high danger opportunities.  Frankly, I'm surprised we're up at 23rd in GF/60, and our PDO is pretty close to one (we're not particularly lucky or unlucky).

Powerplay is ugly too: somehow 19th in GF/60 despite being 27th in CF/60 and 32nd in both HDCF/60 and xGF/60.

PK is middle of the road: 16th in CA/60, 19th in GA/60, 22nd in xGA/60.

 

So is our D group +Power, Samuelsson, and Johnson suddenly a contender-worthy back end? No, not without major development and likely a significant acquisition.

But it doesn't matter anyways, because we're not sniffing the postseason until we fix the goalies and develop scoring.

[Curt]

17 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

5v5, Sabres are 16th in CA/60, 21st in HDCA/60, and 18th in xGA/60.  Not exactly the biggest strength, more middle-of-the-road, but D is definitely not the most deficient area on the team (and it could possibly be the strongest area currently)...

The goalies are probably the biggest problem, which is why we're also 26th in both GA/60 and HDGA/60.  Goalies are at 24th in SV% and 23rd in HDSV%.

Sabres offense is also an enormous problem: we're 26th in CF/60, 31st in HDCF/60, 23rd in GF/60, and 32nd in xGF/60.  We're not generating enough 5v5 offense, and when we are, it's not high danger opportunities.  Frankly, I'm surprised we're up at 23rd in GF/60, and our PDO is pretty close to one (we're not particularly lucky or unlucky).

Powerplay is ugly too: somehow 19th in GF/60 despite being 27th in CF/60 and 32nd in both HDCF/60 and xGF/60.

PK is middle of the road: 16th in CA/60, 19th in GA/60, 22nd in xGA/60.

 

So is our D group +Power, Samuelsson, and Johnson suddenly a contender-worthy back end? No, not without major development and likely a significant acquisition.

But it doesn't matter anyways, because we're not sniffing the postseason until we fix the goalies and develop scoring.

Thanks for this.  Considering the roster, I’m actually surprised that the ES defense is that good.

[Carmel Corn]

My $.02, agree our D is not a strength.  Ideally would like to see more of a true shut-down style RH defender out there to compliment either Dahlin or Power in the future.   Maybe wishful thinking that a true "defensive defenseman" is easier to come vs. the second coming of Cale Makar, either via trade and/or draft.  

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

My $.02, agree our D is not a strength.  Ideally would like to see more of a true shut-down style RH defender out there to compliment either Dahlin or Power in the future.   Maybe wishful thinking that a true "defensive defenseman" is easier to come vs. the second coming of Cale Makar, either via trade and/or draft.  

Let me tell you about this draft and right handed defenders...

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

I felt the same amount of desire to replace Risto when he was here as I do now. I suppose we could use another 2nd pair level D man on the right side but really it’s a righty that can play on the top pair, adequately, that we need, that we don’t have, that we still didn’t have when Risto was here. Even a GOOD 2nd pair RHD would go a mile as I don’t think Risto was that. With proper usage maybe he’d be an average 2nd pair guy.

I agree he's a second pairing guy and said that many times, but the point is you can't subtract a big minute RHD, not add one, and then expect there not to be a hole at RHD. 

[DarthEbriate]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Let me tell you about this draft and right handed defenders...

It's still early...  but say the Sabres pick 5th (where they are now, and could very easily finish). If Nemec and Jiricek are both on the board, who is your preference?

Then --- after we snare some late-1st centers --- who's a RHD to look at at the top of the 2nd round?

[IKnowPhysics]

56 minutes ago, Curt said:

Thanks for this.  Considering the roster, I’m actually surprised that the ES defense is that good.

It's a little surprising, but there are some interesting changes and developments that are driving it.

First, there is a MASSIVE defense player usage difference under Granato/Wilford than under Steve Smith (both under Housley and Krueger).  Smith put Risto and McCabe on the most defensive zone faceoffs and against the toughest competition, sheltering the ever loving F out of some of the other defensemen, both in competition and Dzone faceoffs.  Granato/Wilford don't linematch against competition- the usage is nearly flat.  They only shelter Butcher.  Dahlin and Joker get a few more Ozone faceoffs and Pysyk gets a few more Dzone faceoffs, but the competition load is nearly flat.  Maybe that's because there's no "stud" defenseman or maybe it's more development-centric to play everyone equally as long as they don't struggle.

Second, there has been player improvement.  Bryson is one of the most improved players from last year*.  Colin Miller's role has gone from sheltered to top-level and hasn't suffered, meaning his game has elevated with his workload.

Third, forward support has been much better this season than last.  While a couple players have increased CF/60 at the expense of CA/60 (Skinner, Olofsson, for example), many have improved CA/60 drastically (R2, Eakin, Caggiula, Asplund all allow many fewer shots than before).

 

 

*In fact, in net Corsi rate improvements (CF/60[2022-2021] - CA/60[2022-2021]), the most improved players are, in order:

1. Asplund +14.37 (great improvement to both CF and CA)
2. Thompson +9.96 (great improvement to CF)
3. Mittelstadt +9.52 (small sample, but best improvement in CF, slight decline in CA)
4. Bryson +8.52 (slight inprovement to CF, but great improvement to CA, this against harder competition than last year)
5. R2 +7.27 (massive improvement to CA/60)

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

It's still early...  but say the Sabres pick 5th (where they are now, and could very easily finish). If Nemec and Jiricek are both on the board, who is your preference?

Then --- after we snare some late-1st centers --- who's a RHD to look at at the top of the 2nd round?

You don't draft a RHD first just because we need RHD. If you do, that guy will still be 3 years or so away from taking that spot. Three years to address that problem through free agency or trades. 

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

It's still early...  but say the Sabres pick 5th (where they are now, and could very easily finish). If Nemec and Jiricek are both on the board, who is your preference?

Then --- after we snare some late-1st centers --- who's a RHD to look at at the top of the 2nd round?

I like Jiricek because he's big and mean but Nemec is really making an impact. Nemec is probably the safer pick.

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You don't draft a RHD first just because we need RHD. If you do, that guy will still be 3 years or so away from taking that spot. Three years to address that problem through free agency or trades. 

It's a hypothetical. Also both players mentioned are worthy of the 5th overall pick. 

You're not addressing #1 rhd in free agency. If you can find a possible trade, I'd be interested.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

In which round?

Not sure.

14 hours ago, Dreams Burn Down said:

I see it similarly.  I want to see more toughness and grit in our defense, but I can say that about our entire current on-ice roster.  IMO, until we are able to establish a true replacement for Ryan Miller in net, we will not advance to any meaningful next steps.

We may have a replacement for Miller in UPL / Levi, but it's too early to tell.  We have to draft a goalie in a reasonable round each year, I think.

As @IKnowPhysics pointed out (I have no idea what his fancy stat stuff means, but he explains it all in clear words too) we have to develop more scoring too.

Edited January 19, 2022 by The Ghost of Doohickie
more goodly ...

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

5v5, Sabres are 16th in CA/60, 21st in HDCA/60, and 18th in xGA/60.  Not exactly the biggest strength, more middle-of-the-road, but D is definitely not the most deficient area on the team (and it could possibly be the strongest area currently)...

The goalies are probably the biggest problem, which is why we're also 26th in both GA/60 and HDGA/60.  Goalies are at 24th in SV% and 23rd in HDSV%.

Sabres offense is also an enormous problem: we're 26th in CF/60, 31st in HDCF/60, 23rd in GF/60, and 32nd in xGF/60.  We're not generating enough 5v5 offense, and when we are, it's not high danger opportunities.  Frankly, I'm surprised we're up at 23rd in GF/60, and our PDO is pretty close to one (we're not particularly lucky or unlucky).

Powerplay is ugly too: somehow 19th in GF/60 despite being 27th in CF/60 and 32nd in both HDCF/60 and xGF/60.

PK is middle of the road: 16th in CA/60, 19th in GA/60, 22nd in xGA/60.

 

So is our D group +Power, Samuelsson, and Johnson suddenly a contender-worthy back end? No, not without major development and likely a significant acquisition.

But it doesn't matter anyways, because we're not sniffing the postseason until we fix the goalies and develop scoring.

The biggest issue with the forwards is the lack of a dynamic player like a Eichel or Reinhart.  Mitts is the closest and he is hurt.  Maybe Quinn if allowed to remain in Buffalo.  Just watch the team in overtime.  They don't possess the puck and the few time they do they don't create.  Maybe tanking for Wright is the right decision if it works out.  

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The biggest issue with the forwards is the lack of a dynamic player like a Eichel or Reinhart.  Mitts is the closest and he is hurt.  Maybe Quinn if allowed to remain in Buffalo.  Just watch the team in overtime.  They don't possess the puck and the few time they do they don't create.  Maybe tanking for Wright is the right decision if it works out.  

I don't think Mitts is the closest dynamic forward. We haven't seen that in anything other than very short bursts. 

That said I found a young RHD we might (unlikely) be able to get, Braden Schneider

[French Collection]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think Mitts is the closest dynamic forward. We haven't seen that in anything other than very short bursts. 

That said I found a young RHD we might (unlikely) be able to get, Braden Schneider

Yeah, Schneider is a good prospect. Another one is Calen Addison of the Wild. He has done well in the AHL and got a taste of the show. I don’t know much about him, not a big guy.

You never know what can be had to take on a bad contract.

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I like Jiricek because he's big and mean but Nemec is really making an impact. Nemec is probably the safer pick.

It's a hypothetical. Also both players mentioned are worthy of the 5th overall pick. 

You're not addressing #1 rhd in free agency. If you can find a possible trade, I'd be interested.

I like Jiricek but I'm just waiting to see where we draft and who is actually available at that pick. Too early. 

Agree that RHD in this year's FA crop is slim and unlikely. Even if we drafted Jiricek or Nemec, I'd still want to look at adding an FA on a 3-4 year deal to cover that development time. Adding Manson or Gudranson through free agency would be solid moves for this team. Adding both would make me very encouraged about next season. I'd also bring back Pysyk as a 6/7 depth guy at the right (low) price. 

Consider Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson  Manson Gudranson Jokiharju (Pysyk) as a pretty solid defense with a good mix of abilities (and salaries) to continue building from. 

[Marvin]

On 1/18/2022 at 2:49 PM, pi2000 said:

I don't believe acquiring better defensively capable defensemen will help.   

In today's game it's paramount to play sound TEAM defense.    ALL players need to buy in and focus on defensive play as much or moreso than focusing on creating offense.  

Unfortunately, they've shown very little (if any) progress in that area.     Only Granato and his staff can fix it... do they know how?   I don't believe so, which is why I don't believe (never have) that he's a long term solution at the HC position.     

Do better.

I am with you on the need for better ensemble defence.  But I think you are missing how much easier it is to do that with the right personnel and with improved personnel.  Sometimes, they do play solid team defence.  Sometimes, they look overmatched.  And, more often than I would like, they break down in their own zone.  Sometimes, I have a hard time telling which problem has what cause because it looks like a blend of issues.

[Thorner]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You don't draft a RHD first just because we need RHD. If you do, that guy will still be 3 years or so away from taking that spot. Three years to address that problem through free agency or trades. 

Unstoppable force immovable object here. It’s “BPA BPA BPA and just address through trade/FA” one moment and then “who could Adams even have traded for/who would have even signed here?!” the next. 

Find a balance. It’s naive to think we can be strictly adherent to BPA and just swap our issues for another team’s. You don’t REACH for a position when drafting - but you can manipulate your board to address the concern nonetheless. Trade up. Trade down. We have lots of picks, you can find a way to take the “best” player available while ALSO maintaining a reasonable system balance. 

You don’t just craft an auto draft list by talent then go see a movie while the draft plays out 

[PerreaultForever]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Unstoppable force immovable object here. It’s “BPA BPA BPA and just address through trade/FA” one moment and then “who could Adams even have traded for/who would have even signed here?!” the next. 

Find a balance. It’s naive to think we can be strictly adherent to BPA and just swap our issues for another team’s. You don’t REACH for a position when drafting - but you can manipulate your board to address the concern nonetheless. Trade up. Trade down. We have lots of picks, you can find a way to take the “best” player available while ALSO maintaining a reasonable system balance. 

You don’t just craft an auto draft list by talent then go see a movie while the draft plays out 

I'm with you in part, but I don't think you want to be trading away many picks for position or anything else. There might be a big hole at RHD but this team needs more of everything and as such BPA is still the best approach and sort it out later as you see who develops. 

This is why I talk about clear direction and identity though. I hope they have that in their own heads. I wish I knew what it was. Then you do draft the BPA that fits that identity when there are players ranked close in your lists. 

[Thorner]

33 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm with you in part, but I don't think you want to be trading away many picks for position or anything else. There might be a big hole at RHD but this team needs more of everything and as such BPA is still the best approach and sort it out later as you see who develops. 

This is why I talk about clear direction and identity though. I hope they have that in their own heads. I wish I knew what it was. Then you do draft the BPA that fits that identity when there are players ranked close in your lists. 

I disagree they need to pick one focus to the detriment of other areas. Anyone can copy and paste a prospect ranking and stick to it. The idea you allow a potentially difficult to address positional balance issue to develop because you are a slave to something as random as which player happens to fall to you in a specific spot is absurd. You can’t allow the fortunes of your team to be so highly subject to randomness. 

They can absolutely draft BPA while still manipulating what they can control to ensure a draft that gives you a good shot at addressing positional balance down the road, too

Being a GM is a job. It’s ok to ask our GM to approach the draft with some deft skill rather than just as a computer. The idea is to make up ground on other teams. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Thorny

[inkman]

 

[DarthEbriate]

20 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You don't draft a RHD first just because we need RHD. If you do, that guy will still be 3 years or so away from taking that spot. Three years to address that problem through free agency or trades. 

Definitely. I should have simply asked which of the two were preferred. But there is a strong possibility the best centers/scorers are gone and we're looking at a defender as BAP when we pick (possibly 4th-8th), but if in the top 3 I would have to think we're on a center. But that's a different thread.