Tage Thompson's Upside? What Do You Think?

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We gotta find 1 standard deviation away from Tage's average and use that as the +/- on his sh%. 

This however is why I look at the 2022 draft and I pause when ppl talk about getting a player like Cooley (who I really like). We have a lot of playmakers but I worry that we don't have a lot of finishers. 

I don't think there is enough stats on Thompson to come up with an accurate average.  This is his 1st season in the NHL fulltime, at center, playing top line minutes and on the top PP.  You maybe able to use this season as a benchmark going forward, but his prior 145 games really are useless as the are in a different position and in a different role.  

 

[Curt]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We gotta find 1 standard deviation away from Tage's average and use that as the +/- on his sh%. 

This however is why I look at the 2022 draft and I pause when ppl talk about getting a player like Cooley (who I really like). We have a lot of playmakers but I worry that we don't have a lot of finishers. 

This is kind of interesting.  I have a different viewpoint.  I don’t think the Sabres have a more playmakers than finishers.  I think if anything it’s the opposite.

Playmakers:   
Krebs  

50/50:   
Tuch   
Cozens   
Mittelstadt   
Peterka? (Maybe a finisher?)

Finishers:   
Skinner   
Thompson   
Olofsson   
Quinn

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

This is kind of interesting.  I have a different viewpoint.  I don’t think the Sabres have a more playmakers than finishers.  I think if anything it’s the opposite.

Playmakers:   
Krebs  

50/50:   
Tuch   
Cozens   
Mittelstadt   
Peterka? (Maybe a finisher?)

Finishers:   
Skinner   
Thompson   
Olofsson   
Quinn

I agree, I think Krebs is our only real playmaker.  Skinner is also our only proven finisher.  VO might be next if his injury hadn't taken away his shot so far.  This is Tage's first season over 10 goals.  Tuch has hit 20 once, but is now in a bigger role then in LV so hopefully he'll continue to blossom.  Mitts and Cozens career highs so far are 12 and 11.   This team is really the great unknown with tantalizing clues of what might be.

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Im not a believer yet he needs to repeat it next year .

I've seen many 1 year wonders 

Where? 

The biggest outlier season for the Sabres over the past 25 years is Danny Briere’s 95 points, which is 23 points more than his 2nd best season. But that is a bit misleading since Danny was pacing for close to 90 the previous year before injuries cut that short.

Two more outliers - Sam Reinhart (+15, 65 points) and Max Afinogenov (+12, 73 points) - aren’t really outliers at all when you see each had multiple seasons of similar point/per game that were cut short by COVID or injury.

The only real “one-year-wonder” I found was Al Kotalik’s 62 point season, which was 19 better than anything else he did.

Goalwise, Drew Stafford’s 31 in 62 games stands out as another outlier. His 2nd best was 21 and that was over a full season.

But history generally shows that if Tage puts up 60 points this year, it’s pretty likely he has multiple 50-point seasons in his future.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

This is kind of interesting.  I have a different viewpoint.  I don’t think the Sabres have a more playmakers than finishers.  I think if anything it’s the opposite.

Playmakers:   
Krebs  

50/50:   
Tuch   
Cozens   
Mittelstadt   
Peterka? (Maybe a finisher?)

Finishers:   
Skinner   
Thompson   
Olofsson   
Quinn

I don't view Skinner as a finisher. Olofsson literally cannot finish. Thompson is in the 50/50 category. 

1 hour ago, Curt said:

This is kind of interesting.  I have a different viewpoint.  I don’t think the Sabres have a more playmakers than finishers.  I think if anything it’s the opposite.

Playmakers:   
Krebs  

50/50:   
Tuch   
Cozens   
Mittelstadt   
Peterka? (Maybe a finisher?)

 

Peterka has 27a compared to 13g but you want to go finisher, maybe? He is a zone entry machine with good puck distribution and a decent shot. 

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't view Skinner as a finisher. Olofsson literally cannot finish. Thompson is in the 50/50 category. 

Peterka has 27a compared to 13g but you want to go finisher, maybe? He is a zone entry machine with good puck distribution and a decent shot. 

If Skinner isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

If Olofsson isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

Hard disagree on Thompson, I think he definitely is much more of a finisher than a playmaker.  That’s why he has produced more goals than assists almost every season at every level throughout his career.

Peterka I put in 50/50.  I don’t watch Rochester.  Put him where you like.

[thewookie1]

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

If Skinner isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

If Olofsson isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

Hard disagree on Thompson, I think he definitely is much more of a finisher than a playmaker.  That’s why he has produced more goals than assists almost every season at every level throughout his career.

Peterka I put in 50/50.  I don’t watch Rochester.  Put him where you like.

I think you are on the right track however incorrect in your absolutes.

Both Skinner and Olofsson have shown the ability to playmake; they aren't playmakers by trade but can still playmake. Just because you're a finisher doesn't mean you cannot also playmake. Patrick Kane is a great example of a playmaker and a finisher. He even bounced between the roles season to season or even game to game depending on his line-mates. 

A true finisher that isn't a playmaker would essentially be a player that puts blinders on and fires away at the net. Olofsson was one as a rookie and Skinner was one while a younger player but both have adjusted to passing/creating passing plays since then.

Thompson has gained some degree of playmaking skill over time but still is a "shoot first" type of player.

 

Peterka was originally only a finisher as we know one of his knocks going into the draft was his near obliviousness to better plays through passes. He'd put his head down and go for a goal on every shift. However he has learned how to become a more complete player since after he was drafted. 

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, Curt said:

If Skinner isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

If Olofsson isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

Hard disagree on Thompson, I think he definitely is much more of a finisher than a playmaker.  That’s why he has produced more goals than assists almost every season at every level throughout his career.

Peterka I put in 50/50.  I don’t watch Rochester.  Put him where you like.

 

Skinner finishes goals but he isn't a finisher, aka a shooter, sniper. He is a volume scorer who gets his rebounds in close. I am specifically thinking of sniper/finishers. 

Olofsson isn't a finisher this year, no problem saying he is nothing because he hasn't been much of anything. 

As to the bolded... oh yes his 8g 6a really scream finisher. Or his 7g, 5a or his 20g, 18a. Clearly a 50/50 guy. 

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I think you are on the right track however incorrect in your absolutes.

Both Skinner and Olofsson have shown the ability to playmake; they aren't playmakers by trade but can still playmake. Just because you're a finisher doesn't mean you cannot also playmake. Patrick Kane is a great example of a playmaker and a finisher. He even bounced between the roles season to season or even game to game depending on his line-mates. 

A true finisher that isn't a playmaker would essentially be a player that puts blinders on and fires away at the net. Olofsson was one as a rookie and Skinner was one while a younger player but both have adjusted to passing/creating passing plays since then.

Thompson has gained some degree of playmaking skill over time but still is a "shoot first" type of player.

 

Peterka was originally only a finisher as we know one of his knocks going into the draft was his near obliviousness to better plays through passes. He'd put his head down and go for a goal on every shift. However he has learned how to become a more complete player since after he was drafted. 

I was placing forwards into one of three buckets, finisher, playmaker, or even mix between the two.  So yes I’m clearly dealing in these three absolutes.

I do fully understand that finishers still have the ability to make a good pass.

[LGR4GM]

My OP was that a player like Cooley who is really a playmaker might not be the best fit over someone like Nazar or Slafskovsky if they go forward in the 1st. We have a lot of guys who have some silky passing skills but there are few who can just bar down a shot. Tage does have finishing btw, just he also has playmaking. Quinn will fall into this as well. Cozens right now... has both but we don't see it a lot. Either way it doesn't really matter, Sabres will draft who they want. 

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Skinner finishes goals but he isn't a finisher, aka a shooter, sniper. He is a volume scorer who gets his rebounds in close. I am specifically thinking of sniper/finishers. 

Olofsson isn't a finisher this year, no problem saying he is nothing because he hasn't been much of anything. 

As to the bolded... oh yes his 8g 6a really scream finisher. Or his 7g, 5a or his 20g, 18a. Clearly a 50/50 guy. 

Ok, that’s just I difference in how we are defining the term.  I was just defining finisher as goal scorer.  You are defining it more as high level shooters.

Skinner is certainly kind of an oddball case in how he scores.

I honestly don’t understand what you are trying to say regarding Thompson.  He wasn’t very productive in the past, but we need to evaluate what he is going forward.  I see a guy who is a well above average shooter and a much better goal scorer than a setup guy.

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

These stats were one of big reasons I was so against his signing, especially for $8 mill.  His game didn't warrant that size contract.

I think there was more behind the signing than just the salary level.  I think it was an effort to get Jack back on board and not want a trade.  Bring in some "real" hockey players and see if the team can have some success now versus a reset/rebuild.  We had the cap space, it was a short term.  It was an experiment.  The experiment failed because of Hall, but also because of Jack's injury and his inability to play with Hall.  When it all backfired with RFK behind the bench, Adams was able to justify the full rebuild (including trading Jack) to the Pegulas and they bought in.

Had the moves KA made that first offseason worked, Jack might still be a Sabre, we might be in the playoffs, and all kinds of other good outcome type stuff.  But it wasn't to be; if anything it turned into a perfect storm of the exact opposite.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

IHad the moves KA made that first offseason worked, Jack might still be a Sabre, we might be in the playoffs, and all kinds of other good outcome type stuff.  But it wasn't to be; if anything it turned into a perfect storm of the exact opposite.

It was never going to succeed because the strategy was fundamentally flawed.  The defense wasn't very good.  The backup goaltending was terrible which compounded the injury issues with Ullmark, the coach couldn't coach offense or design credible lines, and the depth KA brought in was terrible because he gave all his cap space to the declining Hall.  

I never said I didn't understand the strategy, but I thought then and think now that Hall was a terrible choice to upgrade the team.  He peaked at 26 and has been declining ever since.  We could have signed someone like Toffoli and had money left over to possibly upgrade the defense and backup goaltender.

Edited February 21, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[mjd1001]

On 2/20/2022 at 1:12 PM, LGR4GM said:

That's a bold statement and we'll never know

We will never know anything that didn't happen, but the fact that when he was on this team he wasn't a difference maker in terms of the team even contending for the playoffs....well, I'll stick by my statement of him not making a difference in terms of them making the playoffs. Certainly not in the past...and I'd say Tage gives them a better shot in the upcoming years vs an aging OReilly.

[Doohicksie]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I thought then and think now that Hall was a terrible choice to upgrade the team.  He peaked at 26 and has been declining ever since.

That has definitely proved to be true, but at the time he was brought in the hope was that he would prove to be a top line finisher that would amplify Jack's points.  The hope was that the change of scenery for Hall, giving him an elite center, would revive his play and get him back to his peak. 

I mean... look at Skinner since his 40 goal season; he looked much the same:  An early peak and heading into decline... but a change of coaching had the effect of reviving him not just as a scorer but as an all around player.

It's easy to look back in hindsight and pat yourself on the back when you're right, but these things can go either way.  You don't know what will happen at a given crossroads of a player's career until it plays out.

Edited February 22, 2022 by The Ghost of Yuri

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

We will never know anything that didn't happen, but the fact that when he was on this team he wasn't a difference maker in terms of the team even contending for the playoffs....well, I'll stick by my statement of him not making a difference in terms of them making the playoffs. Certainly not in the past...and I'd say Tage gives them a better shot in the upcoming years vs an aging OReilly.

It's a pretty bold statement to yell into the internet that the Stanley Cup winning and Conn Smythe winning ROR doesn't make a difference. 

[mjd1001]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

It's a pretty bold statement to yell into the internet that the Stanley Cup winning and Conn Smythe winning ROR doesn't make a difference. 

Not at all, not when the team didn't even sniff the playoffs his 3 years here, when he was in the statistical prime of his career, and when the team got considerably better the year he left. Not saying he was bad, but no, he for sure did not make a difference on his Sabres teams in terms of getting him to the playoffs. Sorry for all those ROR fans that it doesn't fit your narrative, but its true.  He simply was not a difference maker on the Sabres teams he was on. A cute little gif doesn't make your point for you, sorry.

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Not at all, not when the team didn't even sniff the playoffs his 3 years here, when he was in the statistical prime of his career, and when the team got considerably better the year he left. Not saying he was bad, but no, he for sure did not make a difference on his Sabres teams in terms of getting him to the playoffs. Sorry for all those ROR fans that it doesn't fit your narrative, but its true.  He simply was not a difference maker on the Sabres teams he was on. A cute little gif doesn't make your point for you, sorry.

Good thing it’s considered a team sport. Otherwise people would be tempted to blame one individual on wins and losses. 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Not at all, not when the team didn't even sniff the playoffs his 3 years here, when he was in the statistical prime of his career, and when the team got considerably better the year he left. Not saying he was bad, but no, he for sure did not make a difference on his Sabres teams in terms of getting him to the playoffs. Sorry for all those ROR fans that it doesn't fit your narrative, but its true.  He simply was not a difference maker on the Sabres teams he was on. A cute little gif doesn't make your point for you, sorry.

Got it, hockey is not a team sport. 

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Not at all, not when the team didn't even sniff the playoffs his 3 years here, when he was in the statistical prime of his career, and when the team got considerably better the year he left. Not saying he was bad, but no, he for sure did not make a difference on his Sabres teams in terms of getting him to the playoffs. Sorry for all those ROR fans that it doesn't fit your narrative, but its true.  He simply was not a difference maker on the Sabres teams he was on. A cute little gif doesn't make your point for you, sorry.

I mean this is something you could say.

ROR was on the team for 2015/16, 2016/17, and 2017/18 seasons. 

2016: 81pts

2017: 78pts

2018: 62pts last year of ROR

2019: 76pts 

2020: 68pts

I mean... if that says "considerably better the year he left" then I guess so. We just have to ignore the other years and context but sure we can say that. Odd though that 2 of 3 years were better than the best year since ROR left. It is just crazy to waltz around here saying the Conn Smythe, Stanley Cup, Norris Selke Winning ROR doesn't make a difference to a team. That's bonkers and I don't even like ROR. 

 

I don't have a narrative. And now I will only respond to you in Gif form just like @PerreaultForever

Edited February 22, 2022 by LGR4GM
wrong trophy listed, whoops

[triumph_communes]

23 hours ago, Curt said:

If Skinner isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

If Olofsson isn’t a finisher then he is nothing.  He isn’t a playmaker.

Hard disagree on Thompson, I think he definitely is much more of a finisher than a playmaker.  That’s why he has produced more goals than assists almost every season at every level throughout his career.

Peterka I put in 50/50.  I don’t watch Rochester.  Put him where you like.

Skinner doesn’t finish. He picks up trash. If he can transition to playmaker he would peak imo

 

Rest I agree

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I mean this is something you could say.

ROR was on the team for 2015/16, 2016/17, and 2017/18 seasons. 

2016: 81pts

2017: 78pts

2018: 62pts last year of ROR

2019: 76pts 

2020: 68pts

I mean... if that says "considerably better the year he left" then I guess so. We just have to ignore the other years and context but sure we can say that. Odd though that 2 of 3 years were better than the best year since ROR left. It is just crazy to waltz around here saying the Conn Smythe, Stanley Cup, Norris Winning ROR doesn't make a difference to a team. That's bonkers and I don't even like ROR. 

 

I don't have a narrative. And now I will only respond to you in Gif form just like @PerreaultForever

Nice, well thought out argument.  (But it was the Selke, not the Norris.)

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Got it, hockey is not a team sport. 

What a cute little gif.  Totally made your point.  Well played.

[Thorner]

On 2/21/2022 at 9:26 AM, Curt said:

This is kind of interesting.  I have a different viewpoint.  I don’t think the Sabres have a more playmakers than finishers.  I think if anything it’s the opposite.

Playmakers:   
Krebs  

50/50:   
Tuch   
Cozens   
Mittelstadt   
Peterka? (Maybe a finisher?)

Finishers:   
Skinner   
Thompson   
Olofsson   
Quinn

I’d shift Quinn and Oloffson to 50/50, but I agree. Really what I am seeing is a bunch of 50/50 guys, with Krebs and Skinner two bookends on either end. 

Have mentioned this before just as a curiosity, that our C spine may be projecting to be populated by three 50/50 players (Thompson, Cozens, Mittelstadt) if Krebs ends up on W. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that as far as I know, if uncommon, but it may just illustrate the need for wingers that CAN do both, too, as a means to filling out the rest of the roster. 

Cozens and the other Cs with pure snipers probably won’t work, but matched up with a Quinn who does both should work fine. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I mean this is something you could say.

ROR was on the team for 2015/16, 2016/17, and 2017/18 seasons. 

2016: 81pts

2017: 78pts

2018: 62pts last year of ROR

2019: 76pts 

2020: 68pts

I mean... if that says "considerably better the year he left" then I guess so. We just have to ignore the other years and context but sure we can say that. Odd though that 2 of 3 years were better than the best year since ROR left. It is just crazy to waltz around here saying the Conn Smythe, Stanley Cup, Norris Winning ROR doesn't make a difference to a team. That's bonkers and I don't even like ROR. 

 

I don't have a narrative. And now I will only respond to you in Gif form just like @PerreaultForever

ROR’s departure times up exactly with Jack’s true arrival. That they didn’t REALLY overlap has always been the true spilled milk