Potential Sabres deadline moves(sellers)…

[Thorner]

Cozens has been held scoreless in 23 of his 36 games this year, on a 40+ pace. 

Terrible for the bulk! 

“He’s got only 13 good games people!”

- - - 

Let me just check to see how many of those 13 games were against bad teams so I can throw those out too 

Come on now...

- - - 

Hall’s 40+ point pace doesn’t represent an anomaly when it comes to 40 point paces - he didn’t score an abnormal percentage in a small amount of games or tally a bunch of secondary assists. His assists were almost all primary. His season was simply an “average” 40+ point pacing season relative to the average 40+ point seasons we see league wide. 

If you don’t view that kind of pace as “terrible” in general, you have to show why Hall’s production was inferior to the others putting up similar totals (it’s not) or else claim he was bad relative to expectation  which is certainly arguable as it’s subjective 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Thorny

[nfreeman]

@Thorny -- you did say Hall was "bad" for the 14 games after Eichel went down, right?  So, in counting the number of angels on the head of this pin, we're just talking about a sufficient number of games in addition to those 14 as to constitute "the bulk of his time as a Sabre"?  And if we add the 11 games in which he produced only 3 assists vs NJ, we get to 25 games, out of his 37, yes?  Do you not think 25 out of 37 games is "the bulk of his time as a Sabre?"

I will also add that you frequently -- and correctly, IMHO -- cite small sample size as an important factor in hockey analysis -- but you're pointing to a stretch of 2 goals (a 7-goal season!) and 12 assists in 23 games as evidence of someone's performance being "objectively" decent by NHL standards -- when anyone with eyes who watched him that year was ready to drive him to the airport.

I'll also point out that he's been panned regularly by the Athletic's Bruins writers this year, FWIW.

And now I think I've beaten this horse enough.

 

[Thorner]

Should also be noted Hall had a *2.3%* shooting percentage last season, and a career 10.2

That is an *insane* stat

[Brawndo]

During the Sabres Embedded Episode, Hall’s Agent Darren Ferris asked if the Sabres were interested in a longer term deal, Adams responded that where they were as an organization and with the uncertainty of Covid they were only looking for a one year deal. 
 

The Hall and Staal moves were designed as a one year playoffs or bust with that roster that had more holes than those two could possibly fill. 
 

It was a failure for its stated goal. 
 

Now look at the acquisition cost of the two players. 
Marcus Johansson and 8 Million Dollars in Cap Space for one year. 
No draft picks or prospects were utilized. 
Those players were moved for Bjork and picks that turned into Kiskov, Bloom and Marijala. 
Adams asked for Dan Vladar per Dreger but was told no. 
 

Adams also traded Jonas Johansson for a sixth that turned into Nikita Novikov 

 

@dudacek That was an outstanding post, but I am going to disagree with you on the Reinhart Trade.  
 

Adams saw first hand what happens when a pending UFA suffers a catastrophic injury and loses the season with Jake McCabe. 
He would have pulled a minimum of a second at the TDL, instead McCabe was lost for nothing. 
 

Based on Devon Levi’s Performance this season, I doubt that Reinhart would get both Him and a First from Florida at the deadline. It would most likely be a second and Levi.  

For reference Pavel Buchnevich who had better counting stats and advanced metrics than Samson was traded for a 2nd and 3rd, I would take the Florida Return all day long. Sometimes a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush 

Reinhart was not going to sign a long term deal once Jack asked for a trade, despite public statements. 
 

The real mistake was Botterill not signing both Eichel and Reinhart to 8 year deals off their ELCs, Both deserved it and Samson’s AAV would have been 5.5 Million 

[Thorner]

29 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

@Thorny -- you did say Hall was "bad" for the 14 games after Eichel went down, right?  So, in counting the number of angels on the head of this pin, we're just talking about a sufficient number of games in addition to those 14 as to constitute "the bulk of his time as a Sabre"?  And if we add the 11 games in which he produced only 3 assists vs NJ, we get to 25 games, out of his 37, yes?  Do you not think 25 out of 37 games is "the bulk of his time as a Sabre?"

I will also add that you frequently -- and correctly, IMHO -- cite small sample size as an important factor in hockey analysis -- but you're pointing to a stretch of 2 goals (a 7-goal season!) and 12 assists in 23 games as evidence of someone's performance being "objectively" decent by NHL standards -- when anyone with eyes who watched him that year was ready to drive him to the airport.

I'll also point out that he's been panned regularly by the Athletic's Bruins writers this year, FWIW.

And now I think I've beaten this horse enough.

 

I don’t care how many games you use - respectfully I think you are missing my point here: that using “bulk of the games scoreless” as a frame of reference for why a season is “terrible” isn’t a good argument. It’s just how the math works: players that score 40 points in a season are scoreless in the majority/bulk. Without fail. 

Showing large gaps in production doesn’t prove anything, in and of itself, if the barometer is “terrible”: large gaps in production are basically universal if you are scoring 40 points or less. Maybe in an ideal world a player scores every second day and is the model of consistency but much more often the way Hall’s broke down is representative. It’s in a way similar to saying a .230 average nowadays in baseball is “bad” because they fail the majority of their at-bats. It’s just expected. Obviously that’s not an exact comparison because a player in the nhl can approach a rate much closer to one point in every game than a hitter can to a hit in every at bat. 

But the point is: it wouldn’t be expected that a 40 point scorer produces in the bulk of games. Indeed, it’s impossible. The amount of games Hall “didn’t score in” is similar to other players that score/pace for 40. That he “went 9 games without” and “didn’t score in most” isn’t revelatory: it’s common. 

The goals were low relatively but the primary point rate was high relatively - to me I don’t see Hall’s 40 pace as noticeably inferior to the average player’s 40 point pace. 

If he was tallying mostly secondary assists, it would start to shift my view, but even then not into the range of “terrible”. 

Perhaps we can just agree that, regardless of if he played decently or terribly, that his performance was certainly “not good enough”. 

18 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

During the Sabres Embedded Episode, Hall’s Agent Darren Ferris asked if the Sabres were interested in a longer term deal, Adams responded that where they were as an organization and with the uncertainty of Covid they were only looking for a one year deal. 
 

The Hall and Staal moves were designed as a one year playoffs or bust with that roster that had more holes than those two could possibly fill. 
 

It was a failure for its stated goal. 
 

Now look at the acquisition cost of the two players. 
Marcus Johansson and 8 Million Dollars in Cap Space for one year. 
No draft picks or prospects were utilized. 
Those players were moved for Bjork and picks that turned into Kiskov, Bloom and Marijala. 
Adams asked for Dan Vladar per Dreger but was told no. 
 

Adams also traded Jonas Johansson for a sixth that turned into Nikita Novikov 

 

@dudacek That was an outstanding post, but I am going to disagree with you on the Reinhart Trade.  
 

Adams saw first hand what happens when a pending UFA suffers a catastrophic injury and loses the season with Jake McCabe. 
He would have pulled a minimum of a second at the TDL, instead McCabe was lost for nothing. 
 

Based on Devon Levi’s Performance this season, I doubt that Reinhart would get both Him and a First from Florida at the deadline. It would most likely be a second and Levi.  

For reference Pavel Buchnevich who had better counting stats and advanced metrics than Samson was traded for a 2nd and 3rd, I would take the Florida Return all day long. Sometimes a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush 

Reinhart was not going to sign a long term deal once Jack asked for a trade, despite public statements. 
 

The real mistake was Botterill not signing both Eichel and Reinhart to 8 year deals off their ELCs, Both deserved it and Samson’s AAV would have been 5.5 Million 

And Adams could have signed Reinhart 2 summers ago 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Thorny

[Brawndo]

53 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And Adams could have signed Reinhart 2 summers ago 

Are you talking about the Summer of 2019? Botterill was still the GM. 
 

Adams took over as GM on June 16, 2020 the same Summer that Reinhart’s Two Year Bridge Contract expired. Jack asked for a trade and Sam didn’t want to stick around either. 

 

[Thorner]

38 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Are you talking about the Summer of 2019? Botterill was still the GM. 
 

Adams took over as GM on June 16, 2020 the same Summer that Reinhart’s Two Year Bridge Contract expired. Jack asked for a trade and Sam didn’t want to stick around either. 

 

Sam was still 2 years from UFA at that point and has said he was open to signing - as far as I’ve heard it was only this most recent offseason where signing wasn’t an option for Reinhart, because the Eichel matter was settled. 

Taylor Hall signed on Oct 11, 2020. Sam Reinhart notched his extension on Oct 25, 2020. By the time Reinhart had signed his deal the plan had been changed for a long time and Eichel was staying. 

Reinhart could have been signed LT. 

Edited January 20, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Also, let me get ahead of it here - if this is going to go down the path of: “Sam and everyone else knew the year was just a one year stop gap”, along the lines of the “Adams knew it would fail all along that’s why he made no-commitment moves like Staal and Hall” we’ve heard, then the whole exercise is freaking absurd. No one was going into it in good faith (just Ralph?) and therefore the season doesn’t provide a fair body of work for determining if a more “go for it” strategy could have worked. 

It would be a frustrating self fulfilling prophecy: if Reinhart *couldn’t* have been signed because he absolutely wouldn’t believe this team was headed for anything other than a rebuild/parting from Jack perhaps Adams shouldn’t have allowed Reinhart to develop that perception by being so focused on instituting the rebuild.

Again, Adams may be completely right in seeking that rebuild - but saying he couldn’t have had a different viewpoint and approached things differently would be ridiculous.

Edited January 20, 2022 by Thorny

[kas23]

5 hours ago, nfreeman said:

@Thorny -- despite numerous glitches in his Hall tirade, @GASabresIUFAN is again right on the core issue -- which is that Hall was freaking terrible for the bulk of his time as a Sabre.  This is one of those times where the eye test needs to take precedence over the stats (especially where the main stat is assists).  He was shockingly ineffective.

Effective or ineffective. Doesn’t matter, because it was a signing that needed to happen. We had a HC in a “show me” year and a league star becoming increasingly disgruntled. Adams gave them that one last chance to pull their crap together. The adding of a former league MVP was a sound decision. Kevyn succeeded here. It was the team that failed. Besides, without the Taylor Hall Curse, we would never have drafted Power. 

[Buffalonill]

Hall got us a 2nd round pick for free who cares anymore 

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, kas23 said:

Effective or ineffective. Doesn’t matter, because it was a signing that needed to happen. We had a HC in a “show me” year and a league star becoming increasingly disgruntled. Adams gave them that one last chance to pull their crap together. The adding of a former league MVP was a sound decision. Kevyn succeeded here. It was the team that failed. Besides, without the Taylor Hall Curse, we would never have drafted Power. 

I agree with all this.  My point was simply that Hall was terrible for the Sabres.  But I was totally on board when they signed him.  

[nfreeman]

16 hours ago, Thorny said:

I don’t care how many games you use - respectfully I think you are missing my point here: that using “bulk of the games scoreless” as a frame of reference for why a season is “terrible” isn’t a good argument. It’s just how the math works: players that score 40 points in a season are scoreless in the majority/bulk. Without fail. 

Showing large gaps in production doesn’t prove anything, in and of itself, if the barometer is “terrible”: large gaps in production are basically universal if you are scoring 40 points or less. Maybe in an ideal world a player scores every second day and is the model of consistency but much more often the way Hall’s broke down is representative. It’s in a way similar to saying a .230 average nowadays in baseball is “bad” because they fail the majority of their at-bats. It’s just expected. Obviously that’s not an exact comparison because a player in the nhl can approach a rate much closer to one point in every game than a hitter can to a hit in every at bat. 

But the point is: it wouldn’t be expected that a 40 point scorer produces in the bulk of games. Indeed, it’s impossible. The amount of games Hall “didn’t score in” is similar to other players that score/pace for 40. That he “went 9 games without” and “didn’t score in most” isn’t revelatory: it’s common. 

The goals were low relatively but the primary point rate was high relatively - to me I don’t see Hall’s 40 pace as noticeably inferior to the average player’s 40 point pace. 

If he was tallying mostly secondary assists, it would start to shift my view, but even then not into the range of “terrible”. 

Perhaps we can just agree that, regardless of if he played decently or terribly, that his performance was certainly “not good enough”. 

 

That's not what I'm doing.  I said that based on the eye test, he was terrible for the bulk of his time as a Sabre -- and frankly I still don't see how this is even arguable.  You insisted on using stats to evaluate whether he was terrible.  So, notwithstanding the small sample size of his time, which I think you'll agree renders a stats-based analysis fairly unreliable, I gave you some stats that are consistent with my (correct and incontrovertible) eye-test-based judgment that he was terrible.

I have no interest in arguing whether a 40-point guy typically has streaks of poor production in a given season -- of course he does (although a 40-point guy who is also a 7-goal guy is probably closer to "terrible" than most 40-point guys).  But that truism doesn't matter in evaluating whether Hall's 37 games as a Sabre were terrible.

[Marvin]

14 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Hall got us a 2nd round pick for free who cares anymore 

This is probably the healthiest attitude. 

[Drag0nDan]

19 hours ago, Thorny said:

Should also be noted Hall had a *2.3%* shooting percentage last season, and a career 10.2

That is an *insane* stat

I'm sure there's a chart out there for it - but it felt like under RK all the shots were coming outside the slot... leading to lower shooting %s.  

17 hours ago, Thorny said:

Sam was still 2 years from UFA at that point and has said he was open to signing - as far as I’ve heard it was only this most recent offseason where signing wasn’t an option for Reinhart, because the Eichel matter was settled. 

Taylor Hall signed on Oct 11, 2020. Sam Reinhart notched his extension on Oct 25, 2020. By the time Reinhart had signed his deal the plan had been changed for a long time and Eichel was staying. 

Reinhart could have been signed LT. 

Probably somewhat true - but we can still hope that levi turns into a stud.  If that's the case then the trade was definitely worth it.  

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

That's not what I'm doing.  I said that based on the eye test, he was terrible for the bulk of his time as a Sabre -- and frankly I still don't see how this is even arguable.  You insisted on using stats to evaluate whether he was terrible.  So, notwithstanding the small sample size of his time, which I think you'll agree renders a stats-based analysis fairly unreliable, I gave you some stats that are consistent with my (correct and incontrovertible) eye-test-based judgment that he was terrible.

I have no interest in arguing whether a 40-point guy typically has streaks of poor production in a given season -- of course he does (although a 40-point guy who is also a 7-goal guy is probably closer to "terrible" than most 40-point guys).  But that truism doesn't matter in evaluating whether Hall's 37 games as a Sabre were terrible.

Ya man - if you think your personal eye test is correct, incontrovertible, and not arguable, there’s no discussion to be had. 

[nfreeman]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya man - if you think your personal eye test is correct, incontrovertible, and not arguable, there’s no discussion to be had. 

Please forgive my attempted witticisms.

Tell me:  other than "pacing for 40 points" based on a 37-game sample, what about Hall's time with the Sabres would you say was better than terrible?  How would you describe his play?

I would describe it as 5% to 10% more effective than Bjork's play this season, minus the mediocre penalty-killing.  He was good at carrying the puck up ice on the wing at speed and then doing nothing with it.  Otherwise he was invisible.

[Buffalonill]

3 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

This is probably the healthiest attitude. 

  honestly who gives 2 shits about this guy he did nothing here .

 

I'm so happy adams  Just wanted a year imagine if they signed this guy to a long term deal 

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

M Please forgive my attempted witticisms.

Tell me:  other than "pacing for 40 points" based on a 37-game sample, what about Hall's time with the Sabres would you say was better than terrible?  How would you describe his play?

I would describe it as 5% to 10% more effective than Bjork's play this season, minus the mediocre penalty-killing.  He was good at carrying the puck up ice on the wing at speed and then doing nothing with it.  Otherwise he was invisible.

I remember him getting quite a few chances and never cashing (reinforced by the anomaly that was his career low sh%) putting up a good deal of primary assists, then dropping off the face of the earth in effort like a bum once Eichel went down. 

That’s my recollection, anyways. I can’t say the stats fly in the face of it. Maybe it comes down to semantics or how we are defining the terms - to me a Ville Lame-o or Balls/Meszaros is he definition of “terrible”. A guy putting up production tantamount to a mid-6 F is, at worst, very disappointing: I am of the opinion that much of the perception of Turd Hall was due to *just how far off he was from what people expected*, understandably, leading to things like “terrible” holding the day. 

[Thorner]

The forum is frankly littered with evidence of this phenomenon - we were seeing things often like “Dahlin should be sent to the AHL” when he was clearly an NHL level player. I’ve said before, so much of the perception of any player, and indeed the team itself, comes down to expectation. Look no further than things being more hopium-filled than I can remember in a while, when we’ve won like 7 games in 3/4 months.

Those perceptions aren’t necessarily yours @nfreemanand I’m not painting you specifically with that brush (you’ve dinged me for doing this before (“weak sauce”)), just illustrating that often perception informs the reality and perception is subject to expectation 

Edited January 21, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorner]

15 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

  honestly who gives 2 shits about this guy he did nothing here .

 

I'm so happy adams  Just wanted a year imagine if they signed this guy to a long term deal 

If Adams had signed Hall to a LT deal he would not be Kevyn Adams 

[woods-racer]

On 1/19/2022 at 7:24 PM, Taro T said:

Getting Scandella back would be great, though doubt that's possible.  We likely get very good Jokiharju back as well.  And we get Dahlin back w/ Pysyk for now & hopefully someone that belongs higher up the food chain for him to pair w/ next season.

Dahlin-Pysyk

Scandella-Joliharju

Samuelsson-Power 

is significantly better than what's been out there on a nightly basis.

 

And while many here don't seem to see any way to get a goalie next year, the large amount of capspace should, & needs to, be used to upgrade the goaltending either via FA or trade - they can take on a 1-2 year albatross contract to make the price of an actual honest to God current NHL netminder doable w/out gutting the future waiting for Levi &/or Portillo &/or UPL to be ready to take the reins.

This happens when covid ends unless waaaay overpaying is all right.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

This happens when covid ends unless waaaay overpaying is all right.

Have to agree with Taro here. Winning more games next season is crucial IMO. I think it’s paramount we find a tender and the cost can reflect that 

[woods-racer]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Have to agree with Taro here. Winning more games next season is crucial IMO. I think it’s paramount we find a tender and the cost can reflect that 

I have no problem spending Pegula bucks on an overpaid player for short term. I would not like to seem them pay with draft or trades for short term gain.

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, woods-racer said:

I have no problem spending Pegula bucks on an overpaid player for short term. I would not like to seem them pay with draft or trades for short term gain.

It beats paying a retired defenseman to get to the cap floor.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, woods-racer said:

I have no problem spending Pegula bucks on an overpaid player for short term. I would not like to seem them pay with draft or trades for short term gain.

We have so many picks I wouldn’t mind dealing a couple (non 1sts), personally. But if the reasonable upgrade can be had without parting with any, that would work too