Jack Eichel and 2023 3rd Traded to Vegas for F Alex Tuch, C Peyton Krebs, 2022 1st Top Ten Protected and 2023 2nd

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

career -70

I know I know plus/minus is meaningless blah blah blah....

nonetheless, at even strength, they gave up more goals than they scored with him on the ice.

How much does that # change when goals scored w/ the goalie pulled (both for & against) are removed?

That adjustment likely significantly alters that #.

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

For some of us, the issue wasn't that the team was not better with him on the ice. It was the 'significant' part.

  Was Eichel significantly more TALENTED than the rest of the team? Yes.  Did he show periods of time where he executed on that talent? Yes.  But overall, the team may have been better with him on the ice....but it wasn't significantly better enough of the time.  Certainly not to the level that you would expect out of a 2nd overall pick/Semi-generationally labeled talent that was getting paid over 12% of your entire cap space.

At least that is how I feel.  It might not be all his fault, just when he was drafted a lot of us bought into the hype of 'almost McDavid' and the interview with Tim Murray where Eichel himself said he thought he was the best player in the draft...etc, etc.

I don't agree and I think you're wrong

14 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

career -70

I know I know plus/minus is meaningless blah blah blah....

nonetheless, at even strength, they gave up more goals than they scored with him on the ice.

Cool, hook em

[Sabres Fan in NS]

26 minutes ago, Taro T said:

How much does that # change when goals scored w/ the goalie pulled (both for & against) are removed?

That adjustment likely significantly alters that #.

Should have asked for the his team adjusted + / - instead.

[pi2000]

13 minutes ago, The Ghost of Doohickie said:

Should have asked for the his team adjusted + / - instead.

haha iirc he's actually right around a 0 TRpm, which on a bad team means you're part of the problem.

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

haha iirc he's actually right around a 0 TRpm, which on a bad team means you're part of the problem.

It doesn't mean that 

[pi2000]

Here's his doctor who will be performing the surgery next Friday....

https://www.healthgrades.com/physician/dr-chad-prusmack-3bbr4

3.5 stars.  Biggest complaint is that his patients don't trust his decisions 👀.

[dudacek]

Nine NHL execs give Lebrun their takes on the trade.

No surprise it’s a mixed bag - from Buffalo screwed up the timing and got a 3rd line winger and a prospect with questions,  to Buffalo did as well as could be expected, Tuch’s a good player and Krebs could be a top 6.

https://theathletic.com/2935714/2021/11/04/lebrun-what-9-nhl-executives-think-of-the-jack-eichel-trade-to-vegas/

[bob_sauve28]

We got two Sam Reinhardt’s (Krebs and Tuch) plus a first and second round pick for Jack. 

 

That sounds like like a good deal for us 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't agree and I think you're wrong

 

Well, the numbers, the results, and the 'eye test' of many of us say you are wrong.

[Ruff Around The Edges]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Nine NHL execs give Lebrun their takes on the trade.

No surprise it’s a mixed bag - from Buffalo screwed up the timing and got a 3rd line winger and a prospect with questions,  to Buffalo did as well as could be expected, Tuch’s a good player and Krebs could be a top 6.

https://theathletic.com/2935714/2021/11/04/lebrun-what-9-nhl-executives-think-of-the-jack-eichel-trade-to-vegas/

Sounds about right.

Krebs is the entire key to the deal. No way to sugarcoat it.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Over the past 6 seasons, the difference in performance between the Buffalo Sabres with and Without Eichel on the ice has been statistically massive.  Literally greater than any other player/team.  I don’t have the information in front of me, but I saw it recently.

I don't know what numbers you are looking at, but there are numbers I have seen that support the opposite point of view.  

[Andrew Amerk]

2 hours ago, inkman said:

 

Sorry your coworkers saw my tiddies the other day 

Who was the athlete they called donkey because he had a big crank? I think it was a Cleveland Indian. 

How about The Big Unit. 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

career -70

I know I know plus/minus is meaningless blah blah blah....

nonetheless, at even strength, they gave up more goals than they scored with him on the ice.

As someone who is more into (adjusted) plus-minus than most, you need some context.  The first point is the most important, but the ones after it are salient as well.

1. The +/- for most of the other forwards was even worse than Eichel.  The difference between the Sabres when Eichel was on the ice and when Eichel was off the ice was mind-bogglingly wide.  That points the finger at the GM because it proves much of the rest of the roster sucked.  In particular, there was inadequate defence and goaltending.

2. Until they learn to backcheck effectively, offencive forwards often start their years in the debit column for +/- unless your team has defencively responsible but skilled forwards to put on his line.

3. Over the history of the league (I have statistics going back to 1967-8), talented players on bad teams -- particularly young ones -- are almost always worse than average in adjusted +/- because the team is behind and give up not only empty net goals, but a lot of extra-man rushes because they are pressing to score -- even the most defencively responsible of them.

4. The easiest way to have made Eichel's +/- better was to get some very good veteran defencemen and solid goaltending.  I have stats going back to the 1920's, where teams made big jumps in the standings and offencive players got better results because of improved defence and goaltending.

Think of hockey as having its version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle.  The raw numbers we collect can not tell the whole story because you can't dissociate the player from the team.  Players who go from bad teams to good ones often see a gigantic bump in their statistics no matter how good they are -- and the best see the adjusted +/- soar, sometimes by over 40 goals.  For instance, in 1971-2, Gil Perreault was -39.  In 1972-73, he was +10.  Sure, he improved, but the team around him slashed almost 100 goals against off the previous year's total.  That was not all Gil Perreault.  That was Tim Horton, Don Luce, and numerous other players.

[inkman]

5 minutes ago, The Ghost of NS said:

How about The Big Unit. 

Hmmm…I never thought that was ***** related but there might be something to it. He is like 7’ tall. 

[Digger]

6 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Clarification: he could be the missing piece they need to win the Cup as O'Reilly was to St. Louis.

Yeah I wonder how this will all work out for Vegas this year.  I do hope that Eichel is able to play well late in the season and into the playoffs.

I'm not sure this kind of condition is allowed in the CBA but wouldn't it be nice to have added that if Vegas makes the cup final the 2nd in 2023 becomes a 1st in 2023 instead? 

[Hoss]

4 hours ago, pi2000 said:

We know they're not talented enough it's the poor effort for long stretches that's concerning which should be addressed by the coach.    

If they play hard and lose we'd all be OK with it.

I do wonder a little bit how much the poor effort is on the coaches and how much the poor effort is on the clear indications from management and ownership that the team isn’t intended to compete in the immediate term. That’s what I suspect will happen again this year.

28 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

We got two Sam Reinhardt’s (Krebs and Tuch) plus a first and second round pick for Jack. 

 

That sounds like like a good deal for us 

Tuch is not Sam Reinhart. Krebs - TBD.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Here's his doctor who will be performing the surgery next Friday....

https://www.healthgrades.com/physician/dr-chad-prusmack-3bbr4

3.5 stars.  Biggest complaint is that his patients don't trust his decisions 👀.

Dr. Andrew Cappuccino does more ADR surgeries than any other surgeon. He is the Sabres advisor. He wouldn't recommend it in Jack's case. That ought to mean something.

https://aimisspine.com/staff/dr-andrew-cappuccino/

 

[klos1963]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Nine NHL execs give Lebrun their takes on the trade.

No surprise it’s a mixed bag - from Buffalo screwed up the timing and got a 3rd line winger and a prospect with questions,  to Buffalo did as well as could be expected, Tuch’s a good player and Krebs could be a top 6.

https://theathletic.com/2935714/2021/11/04/lebrun-what-9-nhl-executives-think-of-the-jack-eichel-trade-to-vegas/

I don't doubt this was probably as good a deal as KA could get, especially with no salary retention. Only a few teams agreed to the surgery, Eichel is not guaranteed to be 100% healthy after and salary cap implications made this difficult. There is a good chance that at least 3 of the pieces are significant players in the next few seasons, so that's a positive.  It wasn't great, it wasn't bad, this was uncharted territory and with a inexperienced GM, I think it's good enough and time to move on, KA has a lot of work still ahead.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Dr. Andrew Cappuccino does more ADR surgeries than any other surgeon. He is the Sabres advisor. He wouldn't recommend it in Jack's case. That ought to mean something.

https://aimisspine.com/staff/dr-andrew-cappuccino/

 

I'm gonna need to know why he wouldn't recommend it, thanks. 

[Hoss]

Can we just get over the surgery?

[Weave]

18 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Can we just get over the surgery?

Jack's the one that will need to get over the surgery.

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Here's his doctor who will be performing the surgery next Friday....

fify  😉

[erickompositör72]

Sorry if this has been posited already:

 

Is Alex Tuch basically what we all hoped Marcus Foligno could have been?

 

(had Marcus actually had NHL speed)

Edited November 6, 2021 by erickompositör72

[Hoss]

6 minutes ago, Weave said:

Jack's the one that will need to get over the surgery.

I imagine he’ll go under.

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

Sorry if this has been posited already:

 

Is Alex Tuch basically what we all hoped Marcus Foligno could have been?

 

(had Marcus actually had NHL speed)

No. Not mean enough or tough enough.

He's more Marian Hossa lite