Why should we consider this different than "the streak" in 2019?

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres are watchable... well that felt weird. The Sabres won 10 games in 2019 during what was a interesting ride on the wild side. They were outplayed and outchanced often throughout the streak but somehow always seemed to win anyways. Many of us looked at the underlying numbers and were like "ummm idk if this is sustainable". That brings us to now and the fact Granato himself has noted teams get better as the year goes on and they must too. So what should we make of the Sabres 4-1-1 start? Should we be concerned it is another mirage in a long line of disappointing seasons? How much should we temper our expectations? 

So what do the numbers actually tell us? We only look at 5v5 because pk and pp time are far more streaky. xGF% is a percentage because you compare that with opposing teams and math all the shots out on the ice and figure out who should have scored how many goals. Buffalo is above 50% which is important. Their HDCF is 12th which even the eye test shows. This team gets pucks to the middle and gets shots off. Their sv% is very high and that is where we will probably see regression. Their sh% is a little low but I think that is where we see the lack of shooting talent currently on this team. 

I won't go through all the numbers but you start to see the pattern. Outside of their goalies sv% probably regressing, the rest of the numbers put them in the middle of the NHL just about and they should be sustainable in the win column. The way it is different is illustrated in the first tweet where you can see how different the underlying numbers really are. In 2019 they were scoring above what was expected and the goalies they faced were making saves far below what was expected. Todays (2021) team is actually shooting below expected and the goalies they are facing are only slightly below expected. 

I don't think we will keep up this pace but unless the entire team just stops playing the way Granato is asking, the underlying numbers indicate we might be around the 18th best team in the league or there-abouts. Will we end up as that when the season ends? No idea but all signs currently say yea probably. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by LGR4GM

[bob_sauve28]

If the goaltending continues to be good, we will probably be fine. The younger players will be given the breathing space needed to grow, chemistry between players will be given a chance to mature and confidence will increase. 

 

If the goaltending falls apart...

[Thorner]

They look like a better team than they did during the 2018 10 game win streak, for sure. As your pointed out, the underlying numbers weren't very good, as fun as that was. Looks like they weren't good in the 2019-20 start to the season either, according to Chad's numbers. As I mentioned in a different thread, the numbers looks more like they did to start last season, that 4-4-2 start, where the metrics were really good. 

That was Krueger though, and considering what else we've seen from teams coached by him, that could just be a sample size thing. We've already played 6 games so it won't be long until we meet and surpass that sample size. 

[dudacek]

Sample size too small. I imagine all numbers were significantly better before last night.

Strength of opponents/home stand has been advantageous.

That said, their record so far is not a mirage; they've earned those points.

[PromoTheRobot]

One word: EFFORT

[darksabre]

The way I look at it is that the team that put that win streak together was expected to have a pretty good season and it all ended up being a mirage. Some people are traumatized and figure there's no way things won't fall apart here. But...

This current roster wasn't expected to win anything. Not expected to be competitive in any way. The fact that they are is almost beyond belief. Which in my opinion makes it all the more real.

This team should not even be capable of putting themselves in the situation of falling apart; it should have started on day one. 

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sample size too small. I imagine all numbers were significantly better before last night.

Strength of opponents/home stand has been advantageous.

That said, their record so far is not a mirage; they've earned those points.

Definitely does feel like they got a little favour from the schedule maker, and then ran with it. Cards dealt.

Fake it till you make it. They certainly are playing like they think they are going to win. Seems to be going a good long way thus far. 

[PromoTheRobot]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Definitely does feel like they got a little favour from the schedule maker, and then ran with it. Cards dealt.

Fake it till you make it. They certainly are playing like they think they are going to win. Seems to be going a good long way thus far. 

Let's make a list of teams that would mean something if we beat them. Obviously Tampa is off that list now. Anyone on the West Coast trip? Florida perhaps? Funny how a team with an "AHL roster" keeps finding worse teams on their NHL schedule.

[WildCard]

42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Their HDCF is 12th which even the eye test shows. This team gets pucks to the middle and gets shots off.

I did notice this last night, it stood out to me. We get to the middle/slot and take our chances there. Granato seems to have them playing sound hockey instead of simply pumping CF% numbers from point shots from the corner blue line.

[bob_sauve28]

The defense is really confident and skilled. Even when they are in all sorts of trouble they don't just try and ice the puck, no, its a short pass, they maybe another and they are moving up ice. Love that 

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Let's make a list of teams that would mean something if we beat them. Obviously Tampa is off that list now. Anyone on the West Coast trip? Florida perhaps? Funny how a team with an "AHL roster" keeps finding worse teams on their NHL schedule.

Exhausting. 

[Doohicksie]

48 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres are watchable... well that felt weird. The Sabres won 10 games in 2019 during what was a interesting ride on the wild side. They were outplayed and outchanced often throughout the streak but somehow always seemed to win anyways. Many of us looked at the underlying numbers and were like "ummm idk if this is sustainable". That brings us to now and the fact Granato himself has noted teams get better as the year goes on and they must too. So what should we make of the Sabres 4-1-1 start? Should we be concerned it is another mirage in a long line of disappointing seasons? How much should we temper our expectations? 

So what do the numbers actually tell us? We only look at 5v5 because pk and pp time are far more streaky. xGF% is a percentage because you compare that with opposing teams and math all the shots out on the ice and figure out who should have scored how many goals. Buffalo is above 50% which is important. Their HDCF is 12th which even the eye test shows. This team gets pucks to the middle and gets shots off. Their sv% is very high and that is where we will probably see regression. Their sh% is a little low but I think that is where we see the lack of shooting talent currently on this team. 

I won't go through all the numbers but you start to see the pattern. Outside of their goalies sv% probably regressing, the rest of the numbers put them in the middle of the NHL just about and they should be sustainable in the win column. The way it is different is illustrated in the first tweet where you can see how different the underlying numbers really are. In 2019 they were scoring above what was expected and the goalies they faced were making saves far below what was expected. Todays (2021) team is actually shooting below expected and the goalies they are facing are only slightly below expected. 

I don't think we will keep up this pace but unless the entire team just stops playing the way Granato is asking, the underlying numbers indicate we might be around the 18th best team in the league or there-abouts. Will we end up as that when the season ends? No idea but all signs currently say yea probably. 

I agree with all of this... but.

Also consider that this is a young team.  I'm not talking about age of players, I mean that they're just coming out of Granato's first training camp.  They are still learning the system.  A number of new players were brought in late last season and in the offseason.  The whole team is still learning the system, and the system will probably need to be adjusted as other teams see how the Sabres play.  But unlike well-oiled machines like Tampa and Washington, the Sabres have a lot of growth ahead of them this season as a team.

So I fully expect losing some of the early momentum, especially the the excellent goaltending.  But I also expect the team to improve in other ways.  They will become more predictable to each other, more cohesive, will be better adapted to their roles (looking at you, Tage), so there is a chance they could exceed expectations.  If they can beat the teams they should beat, and are competitive with the higher echelon teams, this could be a breakout season.

[Doohicksie]

52 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

If the goaltending falls apart...

It won't.  It will dip from time to time, but the wheels won't fall off.  The players trust Anderson, that much is obvious.  Toker has been a pleasant surprise so far.  But to be successful, this tandem doesn't have to regularly steal games.  If they merely give the team a chance to win, that's good enough.  Against Tampa, yeah, Anderson kind of stole that one (at least for the first two periods).  But that was a nice bounceback game from Boston, a game that the Sabres should have won.  In the end it evens out.

[jsb]

My expectations for this team was to be entertaining, they've been that. Is this winning percentage sustainable probably not but if they've proven anything so far this season, they're not the worst team in the league and you can call Granato the Sabre whisperer. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

43 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Definitely does feel like they got a little favour from the schedule maker, and then ran with it. Cards dealt.

Fake it till you make it. They certainly are playing like they think they are going to win. Seems to be going a good long way thus far. 

The schedule is really in our favor for the first 22 games except a 4 game stretch around game 12 when we play Wash, Edm, Tor and Pit. 
 

So far we are seeing the same general play DG’s team gave us last season after the losing streak ended.  They scored 5 or more goals 5 times last season with Granato as coach. They also scored 4 goals in another 4 times.  In the last 23 games last season they averaged 3.04 goals per game.  This season they have 19 goals in 6 games or 3.17 goals per game.  

To me they look like very similar to DG’s version from last year.  If they continue to get at least decent goaltending they should remain competitive.  
 

At 3.04 g/gp the Sabres would finish with 249 goals and that is a playoff level of scoring 

Edited October 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The schedule is really in our favor for the first 22 games except a 4 game stretch around game 12 when we play Wash, Edm, Tor and Pit. 
 

So far we are seeing the same general play DG’s team gave us last season after the losing streak ended.  They scored 5 or more goals 5 times last season with Granato as coach. They also scored 4 goals in another 4 times.  In the last 23 games last season they averaged 3.04 goals per game.  This season they have 19 goals in 6 games or 3.17 goals per game.  

To me they look like very similar to DG’s version from last year.  If they continue to get at least decent goaltending they should remain competitive.  

Ya for sure, I expect the sample size to soon eclipse that 4-4-2-strong metric start from Krueger to the point it becomes not worth even mentioning - that's the hope, anyways.

As for the bold, as a betting man ya I expect the goaltending to fall off still, at this point - mostly due to the age of Anderson. I'm skeptical his plays holds up, looking at past recent numbers, and considering we saw a strong start from even Hutton, while here, before he fell off. But the strong defensive system may prevent that, who knows. 

It'll also be interesting to see if the effort can hold up into say, game 50. The Sabres can't afford to *not* have that effort level, it's the key to their game right now, not outright talent (relative to the opponent), so over the course of the rigours of an NHL season, I'm hoping games where we look a little more tired like we did on the back to back don't start to accumulate. 

Honestly, one game at a time. They are interesting. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya for sure, I expect the sample size to soon eclipse that 4-4-2-strong metric start from Krueger to the point it becomes not worth even mentioning - that's the hope, anyways.

As for the bold, as a betting man ya I expect the goaltending to fall off still, at this point - mostly due to the age of Anderson. I'm skeptical his plays holds up, looking at past recent numbers, and considering we saw a strong start from even Hutton, while here, before he fell off. But the strong defensive system may prevent that, who knows. 

It'll also be interesting to see if the effort can hold up into say, game 50. The Sabres can't afford to *not* have that effort level, it's the key to their game right now, not outright talent (relative to the opponent), so over the course of the rigours of an NHL season, I'm hoping games where we look a little more tired like we did on the back to back don't start to accumulate. 

Honestly, one game at a time. They are interesting. 

Talent, system, effort and goaltending are the keys to winning.

We simply can't absorb a drop-off in the final three because we will rarely win a game on the first.

[nfreeman]

45 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Let's make a list of teams that would mean something if we beat them. Obviously Tampa is off that list now. Anyone on the West Coast trip? Florida perhaps? Funny how a team with an "AHL roster" keeps finding worse teams on their NHL schedule.

I wish you'd lighten up on the vituperative tone your posts are taking recently, but I agree that there are plenty of teams at the bottom and in the unwashed middle that the Sabres can beat if they keep it up, which could result in a delightfully surprising season.

 

45 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I did notice this last night, it stood out to me. We get to the middle/slot and take our chances there. Granato seems to have them playing sound hockey instead of simply pumping CF% numbers from point shots from the corner blue line.

I think they've been much better at this this year.  It seemed to me that they got away from it last night in the 1st and especially the 2nd period, with too much perimeter play in the O-zone, but got back to it towards the end of the 2nd and did well at it in the 3rd.

[Weave]

Ask me again in mid December when the rest of the league is focused on playoff positioning.

[PromoTheRobot]

41 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I wish you'd lighten up on the vituperative tone your posts are taking recently, but I agree that there are plenty of teams at the bottom and in the unwashed middle that the Sabres can beat if they keep it up, which could result in a delightfully surprising season.

I'll call your vituperative and raise your a prevaricate.

I didn't realize pointing out preseason takes was being bitter. 

[Pimlach]

This will be an interesting thread to follow for the next few months.  
 

Everything hinges on goaltending bailing out overmatched talent plus lots of effort.   We cannot afford a lot of injuries either.  I loved the way Granato was able to get them to “push back” in the 3rd against Tampa.   With a 3-1 lead and about 8 mins left I said to my brother that I didn’t feel a choke coming.  They looked calm and focused.  
 

I don’t see long win streaks but hopefully the goaltending stays far above the Carter Hutton level, which should help us compete and accumulate points.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

58 minutes ago, Thorny said:

As for the bold, as a betting man ya I expect the goaltending to fall off still, at this point - mostly due to the age of Anderson. I'm skeptical his plays holds up, looking at past recent numbers, and considering we saw a strong start from even Hutton, while here, before he fell off. But the strong defensive system may prevent that, who knows. 

I also remain genuinely worried about the goaltending, but at tis point this is nothing to do but hope it holds up or pray the UPL or Dell get their crap together in the AHL and are able to give us good minutes at points during the year.

It will be interesting to see how KA handles this team if they are at or near a playoff spot come the deadline, especially if we have injuries in goal.  

[mjd1001]

Without getting too far into advanced stats (because I am not schooled in them all that well), look at some basic stats so far, supporting what a lot of posters have said:

-Shooting percentage the Sabres are pretty much median/league average. With the 'talent' that this team has, one might think over the course of a whole season they would be below average, so some basic thinking says over the whole season the offense will be slightly less effective than it has been now.

-Save percentage. Both goalies in limited starts are near the top of the league. If they revert to the middle of the league (or their career save percentage) the Sabres would have allowed about 6 more goals so far this season (1 per game).  Averages make one think they will allow more goals going forward.

Does that mean the team will fall back to being the worst in the league?  No.  Does it mean that some individual players can't play BETTER than they are now as the season goes on?  No.  What it does likely mean is that this team will not maintain the torrid pace they are on.  At this moment I still think they are going to be about an 80 point team.

[inkman]

 

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

It seemed to me that they got away from it last night in the 1st and especially the 2nd period, with too much perimeter play in the O-zone

I think this is what Donny Meatballs was talking about when he said they were respecting the Lightning too much.  They didn't want to get too many players in deep out of fear of the Lightning transition game.

Granato has a way of snapping the team out of a funk during a game.  There's always talk of taking it to the other team for a full 60 minutes.  The fact of the matter is that no team can do that.  You can take it to the other team for a while, until they push back and the Sabres would just cave at that point.  For years that was the end of it.  But now Granato has the ability to motivate the team to be the one to push back.  Yet another difference between him and other Pegula-era coaches.