What do you expect from: #71 Victor Olofsson?

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

And I would argue so has his scoring. He is no longer just The Shot. He was scoring while injured. Scoring in other ways 

He wasn’t scoring while injured though.  After returning from missing time he went 30 games without scoring a goal.

[woods-racer]

36 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

4 years 4 million get it done! 

If that is what he will sign for than that's a no brainer for KA.

I went to cap friendly and did a *Contract Comparables* for a 26 year old UFA that got 4 mill contract in the last year or 2. This is their list;

Iafallo, Alex 97% match

Toffoli, Tyler 93% match

Fabbri, Robby 90 % match

Armia, Joel

Donskoi, Joonas

Perron, David

Saad, Brandon

Palmieri, Kyle

Hoffman, Mike

Ferland, Micheal

Connolly, Brett

Kassian, Zack

McGinn, Brock

Pearson, Tanner

Byron, Paul

Foligno, Nick

Goodrow, Barclay

Tatar, Tomas

 

[Radar]

Right return then trade him but not for draft pick. Right contract then keep him. Doubt 1mil for four years gets it done but I'd do that today.

[Curt]

23 minutes ago, Radar said:

Right return then trade him but not for draft pick. Right contract then keep him. Doubt 1mil for four years gets it done but I'd do that today.

$1M per year for 4 years?  Not a chance.

I believe that @bob_sauve28 was referencing $4M per year for 4 years.

That’s within the realm of possibility, but my guess is that it would take even more than that.

[JohnC]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

$1M per year for 4 years?  Not a chance.

I believe that @bob_sauve28 was referencing $4M per year for 4 years.

That’s within the realm of possibility, but my guess is that it would take even more than that.

How about 4.5 M for 4 yrs? It appears that he is getting his shooting touch back. Especially as a PP player, he adds a lot of value to the team. If he required a 5 M per year deal it would start to stretch the salary scale boundary but it would still be within the realm of reasonableness. 

[Porous Five Hole]

I was listening to NHL Network radio this week and Friedman was stating that the percentage of goals at 5-on-5 is at its second highest rate in modern memory (something like 80% of goals are at even strength).  He said most NHL GM’s prefer the the game to be decided 5-on-5 versus the way the game was called coming out of the lockout.  
 

This should be considered when determining a (mostly) PP specialist (who is currently running on PP2).  
 

If he cannot regularly skate in the top six, I would move on from him at the trade deadline next season.  

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I was listening to NHL Network radio this week and Friedman was stating that the percentage of goals at 5-on-5 is at its second highest rate in modern memory (something like 80% of goals are at even strength).  He said most NHL GM’s prefer the the game to be decided 5-on-5 versus the way the game was called coming out of the lockout.  
 

This should be considered when determining a (mostly) PP specialist (who is currently running on PP2).  
 

If he cannot regularly skate in the top six, I would move on from him at the trade deadline next season.  

In my opinion Olofsson is not a top 6 player. That doesn't bother me at all. If he becomes a very good third line player who can also contribute on the PP, he has a lot of value. There is a number of ways to construct a high yield roster. Having quality lines below the top two lines is an essential requirement to build a serious team. And having a player such as Olofsson contributing on whatever line he is on something to embrace and desire. 

[bg17]

VO has 11/4 EV/PP goal split this year. It can be hard to shake a reputation. 

[nfreeman]

That GWG last night was a thing of beauty and pretty close to vintage VO.

I continue to think that the Sabres have nowhere near enough scoring depth to trade VO.  Nor should they want to — he’s homegrown, his all-around offensive game improves a bit each year, he seems like he has a good attitude and the slapper, if it’s all the way back, is an elite NHL weapon.  I also don’t think they would get anywhere near a legit top-4 NHL defenseman for him.

Of course, it all depends on the kind of contract it will take to extend him.

 

[Porous Five Hole]

19 minutes ago, JohnC said:

In my opinion Olofsson is not a top 6 player. That doesn't bother me at all. If he becomes a very good third line player who can also contribute on the PP, he has a lot of value. There is a number of ways to construct a high yield roster. Having quality lines below the top two lines is an essential requirement to build a serious team. And having a player such as Olofsson contributing on whatever line he is on something to embrace and desire. 

While I agree in concept, I don’t think you can pay third line guys 4M or more. 

[Porous Five Hole]

15 minutes ago, bg17 said:

VO has 11/4 EV/PP goal split this year. It can be hard to shake a reputation. 

This is an excellent observation, but, it’s also the first/only year he’s scored more EV than PP.  

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

While I agree in concept, I don’t think you can pay third line guys 4M or more. 

If a third line player is as productive, or maybe even more productive, than a second line forward, you are getting value for the buck. Sometimes labeling/categorizing players by the lines they are on is a wrong way to evaluate players. It's about the production. 

[inkman]

6 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

While I agree in concept, I don’t think you can pay third line guys 4M or more. 

They can afford it for the next 4 years.  When Dahlin and Tage’s next contract are due, that’ll be when the Sabres need to make some decisions.  Three seasons from now, it’ll start being a concern.  VO will be in the last of his 4 year deal, so if they need to move him, this years rookies should be firmly established where if it makes sense to do so, your cupboards are already stocked with replacements. 

[Buffalonill]

Trade him for a RHD 

[NAF]

Trading him at what is likely his lowest point (and value) is a poor decision IMO, the same thinking that sent O'Reilly away for scraps.

[Radar]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

$1M per year for 4 years?  Not a chance.

I believe that @bob_sauve28 was referencing $4M per year for 4 years.

That’s within the realm of possibility, but my guess is that it would take even more than that.

I'm not doing 4/4 at this point. Has to prove injuries were factor in his offense. Guess my value for him is a third line type player at this point. Maybe 3.5 for three years.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Radar

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I was listening to NHL Network radio this week and Friedman was stating that the percentage of goals at 5-on-5 is at its second highest rate in modern memory (something like 80% of goals are at even strength).  He said most NHL GM’s prefer the the game to be decided 5-on-5 versus the way the game was called coming out of the lockout.  
 

This should be considered when determining a (mostly) PP specialist (who is currently running on PP2).  
 

If he cannot regularly skate in the top six, I would move on from him at the trade deadline next season.  

1) This increase in ES scoring rate is not due to a decrease in PP scoring though.  PP scoring is roughly where it’s been for the past ten years.  The difference is that ES scoring has gone way up.  I think it’s a combination of expansion resulting in worse goaltending and 50 guys playing in the league who weren’t good enough for the league a few years ago, combined with the steady increase in skill level/creativity of the better players.

2) I wouldn’t call Olofsson a PP specialist any longer.  He does pretty well at ES.

3) I don’t see any reason why Olofsson couldn’t play in a top 6.  Stuff like that is obviously going to depend upon the type of players around him and how the lines at configured.

4) What would you do with Olofsson this offseason?  He needs a new contract.

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, Radar said:

I'm not doing 4/4 at this point. Has to prove injuries were factor in his offense. Guess my value for him is a third line type player at this point. Maybe 3.5 for three years.

Sabres and Olofsson will both know how much injuries were a factor for him.

Just looking at the anecdotal evidence, I think it’s pretty clear from the outside as well.  He was scoring to start the year, got injured and was out for 3 weeks, didn’t score for 30 games after he came back, then started scoring again.

In addition to that, he was obviously hesitant to shoot, and when he did shoot, it didn’t look right.

The injury was a major factor during that time.

[thewookie1]

The Sabres could try what a few teams have done. Offer Olofsson 4x4.5 mil but then also give him the option of a 1x9mil contract with a planned latter deal of 3x3.5mil.

Helps us with the cap floor and gives Olofsson a bit more money while helping the team in the long term

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

The Sabres could try what a few teams have done. Offer Olofsson 4x4.5 mil but then also give him the option of a 1x9mil contract with a planned latter deal of 3x3.5mil.

Helps us with the cap floor and gives Olofsson a bit more money while helping the team in the long term

Interesting idea.   

VO is on pace for nearly 50 points this season despite losing his shot for a good portion of the year.  He has 8 goals in his last 15 games.  DG is playing him about 14 minutes a night including PP.  With 13 games left and if he keep scoring at recent levels, he'll pass 20 goals again.

Would KA really let a 20 goal 45-50 point guy walk or be lost in a futures trade?  Other teams are desperate for good scorers, and VO (along with TNT) has one of the best releases in hockey.  There will be a ready market for a trade.  However with the Sabres looking like they are turning the corner the offers would have to be a roster player in an deficient area of our team.  Would someone trade us a 25-29 year old proven starting goalie or a similar age top 4 RHD for Vic.  If I'm KA I'm not accepting anything else.

I once thought KA would move on from him  I no longer believe that's the case.  KA likes how the team has bonded under KO and Tuch and VO is part of that.  I've been theorizing 3 years at 4.5 each because I think he'll eventually be supplanted by some of the recently drafted guys.  However if he reaches 20-50 this season it's going to take 4 @ 5.5 to get it done.

Edited April 2, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[French Collection]

I would keep him, unless a trade offer is just too good. 
Scoring depth spread throughout your lines is not a bad thing. If your 3rd line has a 20 goal scorer with a ceiling of 30 on it, that is a threat for the opponent.

DG will probably look at shuffling the lines a bit to finish the year to get some looks at might work. VO could be on any of the top 3 lines. He can be a shooting option opposite TT on PP1 or the trigger man on PP2 .

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

 

4) What would you do with Olofsson this offseason?  He needs a new contract.

I would give him his QO, and go to arbitration if necessary…and then flip him at the trade deadline as a pending UFA/rental.  
 

Assuming the current top line will continue, it is hard to see a spot for VO in the top six.  
Casey, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, & Krebs are all fine second line options (who are all younger and cheaper).   

[Curt]

20 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I would give him his QO, and go to arbitration if necessary…and then flip him at the trade deadline as a pending UFA/rental.  
 

Assuming the current top line will continue, it is hard to see a spot for VO in the top six.  
Casey, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, & Krebs are all fine second line options (who are all younger and cheaper).   

I guess my question is, why is such a hard line delineation between “2nd line” and “3rd line” necessary?  If the team can build scoring depth throughout the middle 6, isn’t that ideal?

You said yourself that Cozens, Mittelstadt, Krebs, Quinn, and Peterka will be cheaper.  I’d argue that is exactly what allows you to keep Olofsson at $5M (for example) even if he is going to be getting 3rd line ice time a lot of nights.

I’d also argue that none of those young guys have shown the ability to produce offense the way that Olofsson has.  They haven’t beaten him out for spots.  If 3 years down the road, those young guys are performing well enough that they are due larger contracts, then trade Olofsson at that time, when you need to.  There is no reason to trade him preemptively unless something comes up that is going to greatly benefit the Sabres.

The Sabres have lots of cap space right now.  They don’t need to trade Olofsson so that they can stay down near the cap floor.

[GASabresIUFAN]

30 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I would give him his QO, and go to arbitration if necessary…and then flip him at the trade deadline as a pending UFA/rental.  
 

Assuming the current top line will continue, it is hard to see a spot for VO in the top six.  
Casey, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, & Krebs are all fine second line options (who are all younger and cheaper).   

Why does he have to be in the top 6?  The team is excelling right now rolling 4 lines.  Back in 2005/6 we also excelled at rolling 4 lines that could score.  This season two of our current 4th line players have scored in double digits and KO is closing in on 20. 

Stl in their Cup year had 10 forwards and 3 D score in double figures.  Having a "3rd" line winger that can pot 20+ is awesome depth and for a team without a dynamic forward or 2 he is a necessity for the next few years.

 

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why does he have to be in the top 6?  The team is excelling right now rolling 4 lines.  Back in 2005/6 we also excelled at rolling 4 lines that could score.  This season two of our current 4th line players have scored in double digits and KO is closing in on 20. 

Stl in their Cup year had 10 forwards and 3 D score in double figures.  Having a "3rd" line winger that can pot 20+ is awesome depth and for a team without a dynamic forward or 2 he is a necessity for the next few years.

 

Because his salary will price him out.  If you’re making 4M or more, you need to be in the top six. Unless he’s willing to sign for a short term…which I don’t think is in the best interest of a player who doesn’t hit UFA status until age 28.  The Sabres cap flexibility will cease to be a thing in two seasons when Dahlin and Tage need long term deals and Muel/Cozens need bridge deals.  
 

Plus there’s that whole idea of a good goalie who isn’t on an ELC or 750k contract. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Porous Five Hole