What do you expect from: #71 Victor Olofsson?

[woods-racer]

One of the major deficiencies that this team has had for a number of years is the lack of secondary scoring. If you put Olofsson on a third line with either Krebs, Mitts or even Cozens that problem will be ameliorated. 

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's rather fun to have to do and internet search for a word because I have never heard of it before. I'll never remember to use it, but if I'm ever at a bar on trivia night and a free beer is on the line and this word solves the answer well......

It was all worth it.

[woods-racer]

11 hours ago, JohnC said:

I would be agreeable to 4.5 for 3 yrs. The more important issue for me is length of a deal. Three years seems about right. This team needs to keep and add talent. Subtracting talent is the last thing this thin team needs to do. 

That is a heck of a pay raise over his current contract where his pay is comparable to his output and peers.

https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/victor-olofsson-10259

The top ten comparable contracts to VO's are in the salary range of 2-3.7 mill per. During his last 2 years (I'll call it a show me contract) his production was on par to his pay till this latest stretch.

I have no problems with 4.5 for 3 till the third year, only because the Sabres will have the cap space and it won't be a burden. I think the Sabres will be into a cap situation in the third year and this contract will be a problem for a 3rd line player.

[triumph_communes]

Oloffson is entirely replaceable. If he wants more than his QO for two years, go elsewhere. He doesn’t have intangibles to make one hold on to him any longer.  He was good while he lasted and now his course has run. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, woods-racer said:

That is a heck of a pay raise over his current contract where his pay is comparable to his output and peers.

https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/victor-olofsson-10259

The top ten comparable contracts to VO's are in the salary range of 2-3.7 mill per. During his last 2 years (I'll call it a show me contract) his production was on par to his pay till this latest stretch.

I have no problems with 4.5 for 3 till the third year, only because the Sabres will have the cap space and it won't be a burden. I think the Sabres will be into a cap situation in the third year and this contract will be a problem for a 3rd line player.

Because of his shoulder injury that not only impacted him when he returned it also didn't allow him to work on his shot while he was rehabbing and practicing. It was evident in his play. It appears that he is now returning to form. I'm basing his next contract on how he played before he was injured. As I said in prior posts the issue is more about the length of his contract than quibbling over the amount in his contract. Our current copious cap situation comfortably allows for the salary that I project. 

To anyone who has watched the Sabres this year it's clear this team needs additions and not subtractions to its roster. 

 

[Pimlach]

Assuming his injury is resolved I think he is a solid 3rd liner with a scoring punch and PP skills. 
 

What to pay him and for how long?   I see a three year deal at $3.5 to 4M.  

[Curt]

21 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Because of his shoulder injury that not only impacted him when he returned it also didn't allow him to work on his shot while he was rehabbing and practicing. It was evident in his play. It appears that he is now returning to form. I'm basing his next contract on how he played before he was injured. As I said in prior posts the issue is more about the length of his contract than quibbling over the amount in his contract. Our current copious cap situation comfortably allows for the salary that I project. 

To anyone who has watched the Sabres this year it's clear this team needs additions and not subtractions to its roster. 

 

Just a question.  Have you actually taken the time to project out all of the upcoming new contracts for all of the Sabres young players in order get a picture of what the cap situation will be 3 years from now, or are you just kind of assuming that there will still be some room because there is so much room right now?

There is no wrong answer.  I haven’t done the actual work to sort it out either.

[Porous Five Hole]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Just a question.  Have you actually taken the time to project out all of the upcoming new contracts for all of the Sabres young players in order get a picture of what the cap situation will be 3 years from now, or are you just kind of assuming that there will still be some room because there is so much room right now?

There is no wrong answer.  I haven’t done the actual work to sort it out either.

I haven’t put the work in either, but I’m looking for top six forwards as the Sabres progress from this teardown.  VO isn’t in the plans for that.  I would give him his qualifying offer this offseason, and then move him at next year’s deadline for whatever value he can fetch.  Then I’ll earmark his money for when I have to re-up Tage at the same time. 
TT is easily trending toward a five million dollar AAV player in 18 months.  

[JohnC]

10 minutes ago, Curt said:

Just a question.  Have you actually taken the time to project out all of the upcoming new contracts for all of the Sabres young players in order get a picture of what the cap situation will be 3 years from now, or are you just kind of assuming that there will still be some room because there is so much room right now?

There is no wrong answer.  I haven’t done the actual work to sort it out either.

I haven't in detail made the projection. What I do know is if the term for Olofsson's contract is within three years it won't be an obstacle to the future required signings. As you well know projections in one year can be far different two or three years down the road due to trades and other in-house transactions. I'm certainly not making an argument for salary recklessness. I just think that what we know about Olofsson's scoring talents prior to his injury a deal at $3.5-4.0 would be a reasonable deal.  

If you look back at the Ullmark situation the Sabres could have signed him, even if it was on a longer and more lucrative contract than what he signed with Boston. If his term was for 5 years that doesn't mean that he couldn't have been traded in his third year. My point is that there are ways to adjust to the cap situation.

There comes a point where you have to compete in the present and not be so obsessed with the future. There are teams with loaded rosters with high many high salary players. Those upper echelon organizations make tough personnel decisions on who to keep and who to move. That's an inescapable part of the business. I'm just more focused on upgrading the roster than worrying about cap ramifications a number of years down the road. Again, I'm not arguing for recklessness when dealing with contracts. 

This is just my opinion: I believe that Olofsson and the organization will come to a deal in short order after the season because both sides want to get a deal done. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I haven’t put the work in either, but I’m looking for top six forwards as the Sabres progress from this teardown.  VO isn’t in the plans for that.  I would give him his qualifying offer this offseason, and then move him at next year’s deadline for whatever value he can fetch.  Then I’ll earmark his money for when I have to re-up Tage at the same time. 
TT is easily trending toward a five million dollar AAV player in 18 months.  

I believe the Sabres can sign Tage to an extension this summer.

They should.

Edited February 20, 2022 by dudacek

[kas23]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Just a question.  Have you actually taken the time to project out all of the upcoming new contracts for all of the Sabres young players in order get a picture of what the cap situation will be 3 years from now, or are you just kind of assuming that there will still be some room because there is so much room right now?

There is no wrong answer.  I haven’t done the actual work to sort it out either.

This is a difficult thing to do and sort of akin to counting your chickens before they hatch. If we have a decent player and he is willing to sign for a fair value contract, I don’t think you shy away from it because some players might demand a higher contract in the future. However, I think term is more important than actual salary for Oloffson. I wouldn’t sign him for anything more than 3-4 years, even if we have to mildly overpay for him. 

[Brawndo]

13 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

For Olofsson, I think that short term, 2-3 years, at mid-range, say $4M, is OK.  I expect him to be a 3rd liner on this team on merit as soon as next year with either Krebs or Mittlestadt as his centre.  That would be admirable depth and would put him at an advantage over other bottom 6ers in the league.

 

13 hours ago, JohnC said:

One of the major deficiencies that this team has had for a number of years is the lack of secondary scoring. If you put Olofsson on a third line with either Krebs, Mitts or even Cozens that problem will be ameliorated. 

I'm aware that Olofsson isn't scoring much right now. Some of that decline is due to the injury that he had. But what is apparent is that Olofsson has worked on his overall game. He is now more of a full length player rather than just a spot shooter. He's a player worth keeping.

The data does not support this. He had best offensive and defensive metrics with Eichel two years ago and those were terrible. His injury coupled with Him being one year from UFA is the worse combination possible for Him.  In their limited sample size together Asplund-Thompson and VO looked pretty good from a metrics standpoint.
 

Hopefully when Quinn is back they move Olofsson with Asplund and Mittelstadt for a stretch of games to get an answer. And as this a development season for the team, I would give place Him on the Top Unit with Krebs, Dahlin, Tuch to see if that boosts His Production. 

 

 

Which player would you rather the Sabres sign VO 3 years at 4 Million AAV or Andre Burakovsky 4 years at 6.5-7 Million AAV? 
The latter turned 27 this month, VO this July. Similar production counting stat wise, but Burakovsky has much better defensive metrics. 
 

 

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I believe the Sabres can sign Tage to an extension this summer.

They should.

Yep & yep.

[JohnC]

13 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

The data does not support this. He had best offensive and defensive metrics with Eichel two years ago and those were terrible. His injury coupled with Him being one year from UFA is the worse combination possible for Him.  In their limited sample size together Asplund-Thompson and VO looked pretty good from a metrics standpoint.
 

Hopefully when Quinn is back they move Olofsson with Asplund and Mittelstadt for a stretch of games to get an answer. And as this a development season for the team, I would give place Him on the Top Unit with Krebs, Dahlin, Tuch to see if that boosts His Production. 

 

 

Which player would you rather the Sabres sign VO 3 years at 4 Million AAV or Andre Burakovsky 4 years at 6.5-7 Million AAV? 
The latter turned 27 this month, VO this July. Similar production counting stat wise, but Burakovsky has much better defensive metrics. 
 

 

I would prefer VO for 3 yrs at 4 M rather than Burakovsky for 4 yrs at 6.5 to 7 M. In my mind it is a better bargain and allow more flexibility to keep our younger players when their contracts come up. 

I like your Olofsson/Mitts/Asplund line. 

[Brawndo]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yep & yep.

Right now His Market Value is around 6 Million, I would offer 6x6 this Summer 

 

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I believe the Sabres can sign Tage to an extension this summer.

They should.

 

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Right now His Market Value is around 6 Million, I would offer 6x6 this Summer 

 

 

There's a slight chance that he won't be able to replicate what he's doing in the future, but IMHO it's worth the risk giving an extension like that based off only 1 (very) good year.

He's doing way more than this kid thought he was capable of.  Cripes, he's killing penalties for crying out loud and generating honest to goodness scoring chances while doing so.

[dudacek]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

There's a slight chance that he won't be able to replicate what he's doing in the future, but IMHO it's worth the risk giving an extension like that based off only 1 (very) good year.

He's doing way more than this kid thought he was capable of.  Cripes, he's killing penalties for crying out loud and generating honest to goodness scoring chances while doing so.

He’s not riding a hot streak or getting carried by a star, he’s legitimately driving play and creating his own success. 

And he’s doing it against the opposition’s best players.

He wants the puck and he expects to be a difference maker. We take his length for granted, but combined with his skill level and newfound assertiveness, that’s a pretty tough, dare I say unique, package to defend.

I’d feel comfortable betting on @Brawndo‘s contract. It’s one of those gambles that contenders take and win.

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s not riding a hot streak or getting carried by a star, he’s legitimately driving play and creating his own success. 

And he’s doing it against the opposition’s best players.

He wants the puck and he expects to be a difference maker. We take his length for granted, but combined with his skill level and newfound assertiveness, that’s a pretty tough, dare I say unique, package to defend.

I’d feel comfortable betting on @Brawndo‘s contract. It’s one of those gambles that contenders take and win.

Agreed.  Which is why, as stated, IMHO it's worth the risk.

Who knew that when the Sabres were rolling through a rookie Mittelstadt, Sobokta, Johansson, Staal, & the closest to actually playing as a 2C Rodrigues in an attempt to find a 2C to play behind Eichel that the Sabres had 2 internal candidates that might have gotten the job done filling that 2C role but never got a look in both Reinhart & Thompson?

[Curt]

3 hours ago, kas23 said:

This is a difficult thing to do and sort of akin to counting your chickens before they hatch. If we have a decent player and he is willing to sign for a fair value contract, I don’t think you shy away from it because some players might demand a higher contract in the future. However, I think term is more important than actual salary for Oloffson. I wouldn’t sign him for anything more than 3-4 years, even if we have to mildly overpay for him. 

A difficult thing to do, yes certainly.  However, it’s a thing that team management must do in order to smartly manage the salary cap.

I never said don’t sign him.  I was honestly interested in whether anyone had done the math.  I would love to see it.  I think I’m going to build out my own projections.

[Brawndo]

Look who is at Number 12 on Seravilli’s Trade Board 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-4-new-trade-targets-🎯-with-4-weeks-until-tdeadline/

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Look who is at Number 12 on Seravilli’s Trade Board 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-4-new-trade-targets-🎯-with-4-weeks-until-tdeadline/

I can haz 2023 1st round pick?

[Brawndo]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I can haz 2023 1st round pick?

If someone wants to pony that up, Kevyn will drive VO to His New Team 

[woods-racer]

A team can no longer front or rear load contracts right?

Can't sign VO so his first 2 years he is paid most of his contract so the third year is cap friendly? Which I'm assuming is when most of our youth will be looking for big contracts.

Example: sign him to a 3 year deal at 5 mill/5 mill/2 mill. The cap hit is just averaged at 4 mill per season?

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

A team can no longer front or rear load contracts right?

Can't sign VO so his first 2 years he is paid most of his contract so the third year is cap friendly? Which I'm assuming is when most of our youth will be looking for big contracts.

Example: sign him to a 3 year deal at 5 mill/5 mill/2 mill. The cap hit is just averaged at 4 mill per season?

You can still front/rear load contracts some, but it doesn’t change the cap hits.  The cap hit always stays constant each year of the contract.  It’s the total salary divided by the years.  So, taking your example, that contract would be $12M/3years.  The cap hit would be $4M each of the 3 years.

[woods-racer]

17 minutes ago, Curt said:

You can still front/rear load contracts some, but it doesn’t change the cap hits.  The cap hit always stays constant each year of the contract.  It’s the total salary divided by the years.  So, taking your example, that contract would be $12M/3years.  The cap hit would be $4M each of the 3 years.

Thank you. It's what I thought and it happened because of the Devils is what I remember.

[Doohicksie]

7 hours ago, woods-racer said:

Thank you. It's what I thought and it happened because of the Devils is what I remember.

That's what happened with the Boychuck deal:  He was already paid his signing bonus of $2.75 million for this year, and his salary for this year was only $1.25 million, but his cap hit was $6 million.  So basically for a million the Sabres got $6 million toward the cap floor, insuring that even transactions during the season won't dip them below the floor.