What do you expect from: #71 Victor Olofsson?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

That’s a good team-friendly contract for a 25-goal scorer.

And that’s what Victor is. I’m putting more stock into the rest of his career than the middle 30 games of this year.

(Actually saw some emotion on the winner tonight)

 

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

They need to keep him.  He’s a good player who adds a lot of value when healthy.  And notwithstanding their nice stretch of recent play they are not overflowing with scorers.

He turns 27 this summer and has one more season until UFA.  I don’t want them to crazy with his contract, but I would be fine with $4.5MM x 4 years.  

Vic and Asplund are serious pieces of the family atmosphere in the the locker-room.  Vic and Mitts, now healthy and in game shape are dominating and preventing teams from concentrating on Skinner and TnT.  This team definitely needs goal scorers, letting a home grown player leave while in his prime when we have the cap space to pay him would be a mistake.  4 years at 5 mill should get it done (hopefully).

[Buffalonill]

Max he should get is 3.5 a year 

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Recency bias:

a common distorting effect within systems of performance appraisal. It refers to the appraiser assessing employee performance, not on work undertaken across the full performance management cycle, but only on recent events or activities that can be readily recalled. Recency bias can be countered by keeping a record of appraisee performance over the full period of work that is being appraised.

 

😬

Instead of going to your bread and butter move of jeering other posters, why don’t you contribute positively to the conversation and provide your thoughts on VO?  Specifically, do you think they should keep him?  What kind of realistic contract would you be OK with?  How much is too much?  If you don’t want to keep him, what do you think they could get for him in trade?

 

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Vic and Asplund are serious pieces of the family atmosphere in the the locker-room.  Vic and Mitts, now healthy and in game shape are dominating and preventing teams from concentrating on Skinner and TnT.  This team definitely needs goal scorers, letting a home grown player leave while in his prime when we have the cap space to pay him would be a mistake.  4 years at 5 mill should get it done (hopefully).

I’d be OK with that contract for VO.  I wonder how high they’ll need to go to keep him.  His production has fluctuated the last few years and he probably has Sabres stink on him.  It’s hard to see another team giving him, say, $5.5MM x 5 years — but it only takes one.  

[LGR4GM]

4milx3years seems right for VO. I might give him 4.5 for 3 if it needs it because salary cap is fine for 3 years. 

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Recency bias:

a common distorting effect within systems of performance appraisal. It refers to the appraiser assessing employee performance, not on work undertaken across the full performance management cycle, but only on recent events or activities that can be readily recalled. Recency bias can be countered by keeping a record of appraisee performance over the full period of work that is being appraised.

 

😬

When evaluating a player over time you have to put the evaluation of play in context. Olofsson had a shoulder injury that required time to heal. During the healing process he couldn't work on his game. And even after he was technically healed and returned to play, he still was not able to work on his signature talent, shooting, because it would have aggravated the injury. So, to be fair in evaluating him you have to examine his play after being fully restored to health. My judgment about him is much more positive and a lot less hesitant in giving him credit for his current play. In my view his current play better reflects his capabilities than the play during his injured and healing period. 

[woods-racer]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

4milx3years seems right for VO. I might give him 4.5 for 3 if it needs it because salary cap is fine for 3 years. 

 

I've done the search on cap friendly previously about who VO's comparable player/contracts are and he his at a 3.7 mill/year standing. Giving VO a 4x3 is in no way out of line, 4.5x4 is  actually quite generous.

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

4milx3years seems right for VO. I might give him 4.5 for 3 if it needs it because salary cap is fine for 3 years. 

As you seem to suggest the more important issue isn't the annual salary as it is the length of the contract. I wouldn't be reluctant to give him a 4 yr deal, but would prefer a 3 yr. deal. Because of our current favorable cap situation a 4.5 M annual deal would not be out of the question. If he has a torrid end of the season shooting spree the higher number might more likely come into play. 

[MattPie]

38 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

 

I've done the search on cap friendly previously about who VO's comparable player/contracts are and he his at a 3.7 mill/year standing. Giving VO a 4x3 is in no way out of line, 4.5x4 is  actually quite generous.

Keep your dirty well-researched facts out of this. 🙂

I forget which era it was (I think 2006-2007 teams, but might have been the late 90s), but the Sabres had 1 guy over 30 goals, but 6 with 20. Those teams were way more fun than Jack and the JAGs. Keep Olofsson, create three (or four) dangerous lines and roll. As someone pointed out above, there are 50 guys in the league that would be in the AHL since the recent expansions; the third pair D on every team isn't getting better.

[Doohicksie]

47 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

I've done the search on cap friendly previously about who VO's comparable player/contracts are and he his at a 3.7 mill/year standing. Giving VO a 4x3 is in no way out of line, 4.5x4 is  actually quite generous.

It depends on what he proves to be.  The injury depressed his stats.  Is he injury prone or was that a one-time thing?  Is he recovered fully or will this injury continue to plague him?  I lean toward the optimistic side of those questions. 

I also see VO making a lot of small plays that contribute to possession.  They don't always show up on scoring sheets but he is a very good complementary player when he's playing well.  It seems to have gotten better recently.  In his postgame yesterday he said he decreased his stick curve which may tame his shot a bit but improves his stickhandling/puck control.  If he's going to stick here (or anywhere) he needs to provide value even when he hits the inevitable scoring drought.

In general I like the way his game is maturing.  He's a much more well-rounded player than the 20-goal rookie sniper was.

[PickaPecaPickles]

9 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Recency bias:

a common distorting effect within systems of performance appraisal. It refers to the appraiser assessing employee performance, not on work undertaken across the full performance management cycle, but only on recent events or activities that can be readily recalled. Recency bias can be countered by keeping a record of appraisee performance over the full period of work that is being appraised.

 

😬

In sports, it should be known as "hyper" or "fanatical" recency bias. 

[kas23]

9 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Recency bias:

a common distorting effect within systems of performance appraisal. It refers to the appraiser assessing employee performance, not on work undertaken across the full performance management cycle, but only on recent events or activities that can be readily recalled. Recency bias can be countered by keeping a record of appraisee performance over the full period of work that is being appraised.

 

😬

What we are seeing with Ollie is congruent with his pre-injury play at the beginning of the year and last year as well. While we should be mindful of his mid-season slump, generalizing that performance to his full body of work would be a bias. 

[mjd1001]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Vic has 9g 5a in his last 17 games.  Anyone still want him traded?  

The key for many of us has been to look at who he is, look at his total time with the Sabres. What he did the first month of the season should not matter anymore than what he did during his scoreless streak, as much as what he has done in his last 17 games.  

I don't want to define a player by his 'streaks'.  To me he is a guy that is a 20-25 goal scorer, with the potential to hit 30, and can be VERY dangerous on the PP.  People like to say he is a PP specialist so those goals don't mean as much, but I say back...tell me that when you are a playoff team and struggling to win games BECAUSE your PP is sputtering. A goal is a goal is a goal (unless it is an empty net goal, but again maybe that is still as valuable because it clinches a win.)  I have wanted him back on this team consistently over the past year or so..as long as he isn't getting drastically overpaid long term. (overpay him on a 3-4 year deal and I'm fine with it, they should have cap room for at least that long)

[inkman]

54 minutes ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

In sports, it should be known as "hyper" or "fanatical" recency bias. 

Your screen name makes me think of this song 

Yes I chose this version for obvious reasons

[Flashsabre]

 

[sabresparaavida]

13 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

 

This implies to me that if he was healthy, we’d probably have ended up with 3 30 goal scorers, which is exciting for next year, when we throw Quinn into the mix as well, Cozens and Quinn taking a step, and hopefully a healthy season from Mitts. We could have be rounding out 3 solid scoring lines with a 4th line (probably not in toi) that’s checking with some scoring (Asplund-Girgs-Okposo?

[klos1963]

22 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Vic has 9g 5a in his last 17 games.  Anyone still want him traded?  

If he can get us a very good goalie, need to keep an open mind. Not really excited about going into next season with what we have now. This team might be very good next season, except for 1 area.

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 hours ago, klos1963 said:

If he can get us a very good goalie, need to keep an open mind. Not really excited about going into next season with what we have now. This team might be very good next season, except for 1 area.

Given the totality of the circumstances, the 2 issues of VO’s next contract vs acquiring a goaltender are separate issues

1) The Sabres are 23rd in goals for.  Can we really afford to let one of our premiere goal scorers go?

2) The Sabres are approx $18 mill under the cap floor with surprisingly few job openings.  VO’s next contract will go along way toward helping us get to the floor.

3) The Sabres have other assets to use to get the goaltending including 3 1sts this year, 3 2nds next year, and a boatload of cap space to help other teams get under the cap.  KA said at the deadline that he was willing to weaponize the cap space.  I don’t see the attitude changing in the off-season.

4) KA’s pronouncement that he only wants guys that wants to be here, isn’t lip service.  The recent article about Asplund and VO’s bonding in Rochester and being key pieces of the of fun and family atmosphere in the locker room reinforced the idea that KA would bring back VO to keep his scoring and maintain the building culture.

Nothing precludes KA from trading VO in the right deal, but it would have to be a huge offer.  Also he has been pretty clear that he wants to acquire a top flight RHD to partner with Power and mentor the young D group. 19 teams are either at this years cap ceiling or over the cap using LTIR to stay complaint.  Most of the these teams have limited flexibility for next season and will be dumping veteran contracts this off-season.  This is how I believe KA will weaponize our cap space. I can see guys like Varlomov and Dumba at the top of KA’s list.

 

Edited April 7, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[French Collection]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Given the totality of the circumstances, the 2 issues of VO’s next contract vs acquiring a goaltender are separate issues

1) The Sabres are 23rd in goals for.  Can we really afford to let one of our premiere goal scorers go?

2) The Sabres are approx $18 under the cap floor with surprisingly few job openings.  VO’s next contract will go along way toward helping us get to the floor.

3) The Sabres have other assets to use to get the goaltending including 3 1sts this year, 3 2nds next year, and a boatload of cap space to help other teams get under the cap.  KA said at the deadline that he was willing to weaponize the cap space.  I don’t see the attitude changing in the off-season.

4) KA’s pronouncement that he only wants guys that wants to be here, isn’t lip service.  The recent article about Asplund and VO’s bonding in Rochester and being key pieces of the of fun and family atmosphere in the locker room reinforced the idea that KA would bring back VO to keep his scoring and maintain the building culture.

Nothing precludes KA from trading VO in the right deal, but it would have to be a huge offer.  Also he has been pretty clear that he wants to acquire a top flight RHD to partner with Power and mentor the young D group. 19 teams are either at this years cap ceiling or over the cap using LTIR to stay complaint.  Most of the these teams have limited flexibility for next season and will be dumping veteran contracts this off-season.  This is how I believe KA will weaponize our cap space. I can see guys like Varlomov and Dumba at the top of KA’s list.

 

Good points.

Some team(s) probably have a young, cheap goalie that is ready for a shot. They are tight against the cap and will want to get rid of an older goalie. I have a feeling this is KA’s move.

It better be a decent goalie because UPL has holes and Anderson will be 41, if he comes back.

[Doohicksie]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

maintain the building culture.

Anyone hear anything about a Swede-Finn feud in the locker room?  I saw a random tweet about it and when I asked for more info I got no response.  I tend to think it was nothing but thought I would throw it out there to see if anyone else had heard anything.

The only Finn on the roster right now is Joki who is paired with Swede Dahlin.  If there was actually a feud along country lines it's hard to believe they would be a pairing. 

The tweet was from a week or two ago, but the tweeter cited that as support for trading Olie away (which also doesn't make sense since there are a bunch of Swedes and only one Finn (two if you count UPL) on the roster.

[klos1963]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Given the totality of the circumstances, the 2 issues of VO’s next contract vs acquiring a goaltender are separate issues

1) The Sabres are 23rd in goals for.  Can we really afford to let one of our premiere goal scorers go?

2) The Sabres are approx $18 under the cap floor with surprisingly few job openings.  VO’s next contract will go along way toward helping us get to the floor.

3) The Sabres have other assets to use to get the goaltending including 3 1sts this year, 3 2nds next year, and a boatload of cap space to help other teams get under the cap.  KA said at the deadline that he was willing to weaponize the cap space.  I don’t see the attitude changing in the off-season.

4) KA’s pronouncement that he only wants guys that wants to be here, isn’t lip service.  The recent article about Asplund and VO’s bonding in Rochester and being key pieces of the of fun and family atmosphere in the locker room reinforced the idea that KA would bring back VO to keep his scoring and maintain the building culture.

Nothing precludes KA from trading VO in the right deal, but it would have to be a huge offer.  Also he has been pretty clear that he wants to acquire a top flight RHD to partner with Power and mentor the young D group. 19 teams are either at this years cap ceiling or over the cap using LTIR to stay complaint.  Most of the these teams have limited flexibility for next season and will be dumping veteran contracts this off-season.  This is how I believe KA will weaponize our cap space. I can see guys like Varlomov and Dumba at the top of KA’s list.

 

I'm not advocating a trade , I like VO a lot, my point was that we need to get a upper level goalie for next season and might need to trade some quality for quality.

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

I'm not advocating a trade , I like VO a lot, my point was that we need to get a upper level goalie for next season and might need to trade some quality for quality.

I would love to get a Hellebuyck or Saros, but those guys are unlikely available.  Given his past comments about not blocking his prospects, it’s more likely that he’ll want to get a vet that can add to his cap and provide good goaltending while UPL develops into a starter, or UPL gets passed in the pipeline by Levi or Portillo.

That’s where someone like Varlamov comes in.  He carries a 5 mill cap hit for next year, the NYI have a younger guy who is already their starter, but are still tight against next year’s cap.  He is 33 and still a good goaltender with a 2.74 and .918 this season.

[nfreeman]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I would love to get a Hellebuyck or Saros, but those guys are unlikely available.  Given his past comments about not blocking his prospects, it’s more likely that he’ll want to get a vet that can add to his cap and provide good goaltending while UPL develops into a starter, or UPL gets passed in the pipeline by Levi or Portillo.

That’s where someone like Varlamov comes in.  He carries a 5 mill cap hit for next year, the NYI have a younger guy who is already their starter, but are still tight against next year’s cap.  He is 33 and still a good goaltender with a 2.74 and .918 this season.

Varlamov turns 34 in a couple of weeks, but I agree that he is the type of guy, and in the current type of situation, that KA should be targeting (and should've targeted last summer, but that's another discussion).  He's a proven NHL goalie with only 1 year left on his contract, and he probably wouldn't cost much to acquire.

[Drag0nDan]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Given the totality of the circumstances, the 2 issues of VO’s next contract vs acquiring a goaltender are separate issues

1) The Sabres are 23rd in goals for.  Can we really afford to let one of our premiere goal scorers go?

2) The Sabres are approx $18 under the cap floor with surprisingly few job openings.  VO’s next contract will go along way toward helping us get to the floor.

3) The Sabres have other assets to use to get the goaltending including 3 1sts this year, 3 2nds next year, and a boatload of cap space to help other teams get under the cap.  KA said at the deadline that he was willing to weaponize the cap space.  I don’t see the attitude changing in the off-season.

4) KA’s pronouncement that he only wants guys that wants to be here, isn’t lip service.  The recent article about Asplund and VO’s bonding in Rochester and being key pieces of the of fun and family atmosphere in the locker room reinforced the idea that KA would bring back VO to keep his scoring and maintain the building culture.

Nothing precludes KA from trading VO in the right deal, but it would have to be a huge offer.  Also he has been pretty clear that he wants to acquire a top flight RHD to partner with Power and mentor the young D group. 19 teams are either at this years cap ceiling or over the cap using LTIR to stay complaint.  Most of the these teams have limited flexibility for next season and will be dumping veteran contracts this off-season.  This is how I believe KA will weaponize our cap space. I can see guys like Varlomov and Dumba at the top of KA’s list.

 

These don't need to be lines - i'm all for mixing it up including thompson line - which can be a bit too offense heavy and gives up too many chances

Skinner thompson tuch - No one touches skinner, thompsons been our best center, and tuch looks like future captain

girgs-asplund-okposo - Girgs might fetch something in a trade but not much, asplund if he can play center would be a good fit here with a better shot than eakin and a willingness to use it

krebs - cozens - olof - Krebs needs the offseason as he's sort of in a rut and making a lot of the same mistakes.  Cozens needs to continue to work on his 200 foot game and just generally needs to play faster more consistently.  Olof can shoot, and even pass sometimes, and is probably a wing on the PP1

JJP - Mitts - Quinn - Hypothetically these are the last 3 in, which would mean no FAs or trades out of the forward group.  I'm not sure i love mitts at center, or both rookies starting up with the team right out of the gate.  I don't think theres much for either to learn at the same time, and I wouldn't trade either.  

Trocheck would be a nice get - good on the dot, good defensively.  Giroux as well would be an interesting add.  But adding either one of those pushes someone like JJP to the minors, or someone like olof or mitts (or both) off the roster entirely.  There are a ton of young dudes on this team right now.  

I like the idea of a Varlamov, and there will be others.  Kuemper, Campbell, Husso, Vanacek will all sign places - and those teams will likely have to move goalies as well.  

[Doohicksie]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He is 33

Ack!  No way Kevyn brings in a goalie that old!

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

Ack!  No way Kevyn brings in a goalie that old!

I think you mean that young.