Who will outperform their contract.

[GASabresIUFAN]

All the articles have talked about Dahlin’s contract being 7.4% of the cap and the 3rd highest cap hit on the team.  They seem to forget it’s not about the money, it’s the value for the money.  Jack is injured, Skinner a waste and KO is now a bottom 6 player.  We are getting little or no value out of any of these contracts.  

However, with Dahlin, it’s the only big contract on the team we actually have a chance of getting real value for the money.  He is going to run the PP, lead the team in ice time, lead the team in points by a D (possibly even the whole team).  This is his team now.  Odds are the Sabres will get great value from this contract.

What other contracts should give the Sabres legit value or put another way who will outplay their contract?  The obvious ones are Mitts and Asplund.  If Mitts reaches his potential and puts up 50 points and plays a decent top 6 center, his contract will be one of the best values in the NHL.  I feel much the same way about Asplund.  I’m unsure of his role this season, but something tells me he’ll play up and down this lineup and be effective in any role they give him.  I’m hoping he continues as Mitts’ LW, but I suspect he’ll play either 3 LW or 3C and kill penalties.  Either way we get great value for his 800K. 

Any others stand out? 

[PerreaultForever]

Well, although he's unlikely to peak yet, Cozens will outperform his contract since he's still on his rookie deal. Asplund's contract is low enough that he could outperform it by a lot as well. 

If Samuelsson takes another step forward he will as well. otherwise, MAYBE Jokiharju but I think he could go either way.

Lastly, if either goalie, Dell or Anderson, is in any way even half decent (which I doubt) they will have outperformed their contracts but don't hold your breath. 

[Buffalonill]

Pysyk

[triumph_communes]

Dahlin 

[steveoath]

Casey. I think this could be the year where it just 'clicks' for him. I think he'll step up.

For outperform in this case I equate roughly $100k per point for fwds. So I believe Casey will approach double the 25 pts this formula sets.

[Zamboni]

You have to be a special level of suckage if you can’t outperform (even by smidge) a 1 year $750,000 contract. 

So all those guys…

[nucci]

Pretty much everyone that was signed to the 1 yr $750K contract

7 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

You have to be a special level of suckage if you can’t outperform (even by smidge) a 1 year $750,000 contract. 

So all those guys…

Sorry, didn't see this before I posted

[Curt]

Mittelstadt

Routsalainen- big time

Cozens

Asplund

probably Pysyk

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Any others stand out? 

Sam Reinhart will outperform his contract. 

[Buffalonill]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sam Reinhart will outperform his contract. 

[Digger]

For the new contracts signed this off season I think Asplund will be the best value. 

Hopefully Mittelstadt and Jokiharju and Dahlin take positive steps forward this season too.

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Mittelstadt

Routsalainen- big time

Cozens

Asplund

probably Pysyk

I agree with everyone but Mitts.  I just am not sure his small sampling of games under DG was a true indication of him having gone from “he’s a bust” to “he’s one of the Sabres top two centers”.  

Edited September 24, 2021 by LabattBlue

[Buffalonill]

7 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I agree with everyone but Mitts.  I just am not sure his small sampling of games under DG was a true indication of him having gone from “he’s a bust” to “he’s one of the Sabres too two centers”.  

He needs to be on his game beacuse it looks like they're going all in with him like they did in 18-19

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I agree with everyone but Mitts.  I just am not sure his small sampling of games under DG was a true indication of him having gone from “he’s a bust” to “he’s one of the Sabres top two centers”.  

at 100K per point, he needs 25 pts for the team to "breakeven".  You don't think he'll score 25 pts?  What is he goes 18g 27a for 45 pts?  Won't a contract of 2.5 mill be a huge value?

[Weave]

I'm hard pressed to find optimism in any of these guys outperforming their contracts. 

[LabattBlue]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

at 100K per point, he needs 25 pts for the team to "breakeven".  You don't think he'll score 25 pts?  What is he goes 18g 27a for 45 pts?  Won't a contract of 2.5 mill be a huge value?

I don’t know where you came up with this 100k per point formula, but there is more to a player than just points. What if he puts up 30 points and is a train wreck in every other phase of his game?

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I don’t know where you came up with this 100k per point formula, but there is more to a player than just points. What if he puts up 30 points and is a train wreck in every other phase of his game?

100k per point is usually a pretty good reference point for FA contracts.  Mitts proved in Rochester and last season in Buffalo that he is no longer a train wreck as a two way player. 

Edited September 24, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[SwampD]

37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

100k per point is usually a pretty good reference point for FA contracts.  Mitts proved in Rochester and last season in Buffalo that he is no longer a train wreck as a two way player. 

And I think it was more like 125K before the pandemic.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

I agree with everyone but Mitts.  I just am not sure his small sampling of games under DG was a true indication of him having gone from “he’s a bust” to “he’s one of the Sabres top two centers”.  

Even if he performs as a 3C, I think it is outperforming that contract.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Lets see ...

Mitts

Joker

Rasmus II

I would think any of the $750K club.  They better.

Pysyk

I assume the question pertains to the whole contract and not just this season.

[Doohicksie]

10 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Lastly, if either goalie, Dell or Anderson, is in any way even half decent (which I doubt) they will have outperformed their contracts but don't hold your breath. 

I think Aaron Dell will be the 1G this year and do a creditable job.  I've brought it up before... his career stats are very close to Ullmark's in terms of number of games played, SV% and GAA.  He's four years older but played 4 years of college hockey.  He spent last year on a taxi squad and only played in 7 games, so his numbers were way down but it was a small sample.  The year before that was pretty good; the year prior to that was an off year but he's had more good years than off years.  If he sees a return to his earlier form, which is not that unlikely, the Sabres goaltending could be fine.

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think Aaron Dell will be the 1G this year and do a creditable job.  I've brought it up before... his career stats are very close to Ullmark's in terms of number of games played, SV% and GAA.  He's four years older but played 4 years of college hockey.  He spent last year on a taxi squad and only played in 7 games, so his numbers were way down but it was a small sample.  The year before that was pretty good; the year prior to that was an off year but he's had more good years than off years.  If he sees a return to his earlier form, which is not that unlikely, the Sabres goaltending could be fine.

I appreciate your enthusiasm.  Sadly his 2 prior seasons were 25 games (2018-19) with 3.17 gaa with a 886 save % followed by 33 games (2019-20) with a 3.01 and a 907.  Not exactly a great trend of accomplishment.  

We should feel lucky if Dell comes close to the 2019-20 numbers.  There is a reason we were his best offer.  

[Buffalonill]

17 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I think Aaron Dell will be the 1G this year and do a creditable job.  I've brought it up before... his career stats are very close to Ullmark's in terms of number of games played, SV% and GAA.  He's four years older but played 4 years of college hockey.  He spent last year on a taxi squad and only played in 7 games, so his numbers were way down but it was a small sample.  The year before that was pretty good; the year prior to that was an off year but he's had more good years than off years.  If he sees a return to his earlier form, which is not that unlikely, the Sabres goaltending could be fine.

I think there  is only 6 goalies in nhl history that had success at 40 ( hasek, bower, brodeur, plante , roloson, belfour ( i could be wrong )

Its very rare in the history books 

 

Edit : was thinking  anderson

Edited September 25, 2021 by Buffalonill

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

I think there  is only 6 goalies in nhl history that had success at 40 ( hasek, bower, brodeur, plante , roloson, belfour ( i could be wrong )

Its very rare in the history books 

Good thing Dell isn’t 40.

[Buffalonill]

14 minutes ago, Curt said:

Good thing Dell isn’t 40.

Here i was thinking  anderson lol .

Nvm then