Forwards This Season 2021-22 & Beyond

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I would not sign that offer if I was VO. What’s incentive? Sabres would have to up the ante in order to buy UFA years. 

I think he’d much rather take a one-year reward in arbitration all the way to unrestricted free agency next summer.

Honestly this may best for both parties.  Given his age, KA may view him as a transitional player; someone who is part of the rebuild but not part of the long-term core.

[Thorner]

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly this may best for both parties.  Given his age, KA may view him as a transitional player; someone who is part of the rebuild but not part of the long-term core.

He's 10 months older than Tuch. Don't see that being the case

[nfreeman]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he gets him for 5 mill that isn’t overpaying.  He has 20 pts in 26 games.  That’s a pace for 57 points based on the games remaining.  A $100k a pt, $5 mill is a starting point.  
 

in his 3 seasons, all Covid limited, he paced at 64, 47 and 57 this year.  Add a premium for goal scoring and again $5 mill is a starting point especially with him having arbitration rights.

 

You are ignoring his injury to the point that this post is effectively #hammymath.

He has ZERO goals and 11 assists in 18 games since returning from injury.

If he can't shoot his shot, he's not a goal-scorer, and he's not going to get paid like one.

 

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I would not sign that offer if I was VO. What’s incentive? Sabres would have to up the ante in order to buy UFA years. 

I think he’d much rather take a one-year reward in arbitration all the way to unrestricted free agency next summer.

This is fair, but again, it depends on his injury.  If it doesn't improve this season, and the medical diagnosis indicates that surgery is needed -- there's a huge risk that he never gets it back.  In that situation he might decide that guaranteeing himself $11MM is prudent.

OTOH, if he starts to feel like his old self in the last month of the season, and the docs say he doesn't need surgery, then I agree he wouldn't accept that deal.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

You are ignoring his injury to the point that this post is effectively #hammymath.

He has ZERO goals and 11 assists in 18 games since returning from injury.

If he can't shoot his shot, he's not a goal-scorer, and he's not going to get paid like one.

 

This is fair, but again, it depends on his injury.  If it doesn't improve this season, and the medical diagnosis indicates that surgery is needed -- there's a huge risk that he never gets it back.  In that situation he might decide that guaranteeing himself $11MM is prudent.

OTOH, if he starts to feel like his old self in the last month of the season, and the docs say he doesn't need surgery, then I agree he wouldn't accept that deal.

Even with 11 assists in 18 games, that’s another 30 pts this season, giving him 50 for the year.  If the Drs say he is going to be fine, then that changes nothing. You are still looking at $5 mill as a starting point.  I know you want him cheaper, but that ain’t happening. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He's 10 months older than Tuch. Don't see that being the case

The difference is style of play and that Tuch is already locked in.  VO will be 27 to start next season.  Are we investing in a 5 year deal until he’s 32?  Tuch on the other hand will only be 26 and is locked up for less then we’ll have to pay VO, has a longer NHL track record and his contract ends when he’s 30.  

Simply put, we should get most of Tuch’s prime years, vs VO, who if signed for 5 years, will likely give us a minimum of 2 years of declining prodcution.

Also add in all the talented wingers coming up in the system who are destined to replace one or both players.  

The more I think about this, I really wonder if KA might just trade VO at the deadline.

Edited January 11, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The difference is style of play and that Tuch is already locked in.  VO will be 27 to start next season.  Are we investing in a 5 year deal until he’s 32?  Tuch on the other hand will only be 26 and is locked up for less then we’ll have to pay VO, has a longer NHL track record and his contract ends when he’s 30.  

Simply put, we should get most of Tuch’s prime years, vs VO, who if signed for 5 years, will likely give us a minimum of 2 years of declining prodcution.

Also add in all the talented wingers coming up in the system who are destined to replace one or both players.  

The more I think about this, I really wonder if KA might just trade VO at the deadline.

Doesn't jive with me. 

So much of the optimism people are taking solace in is stuff like...."how can we not improve, when Caggiula and Hinostroza are replaced with the likes of Peterka and Quinn??" 

We don't improve by letting our BEST point producer go, and subbing in a rookie. That's not where you find the incremental improvement - that's where you find the incremental, at best, loss. 

We are not, and I cannot stress this enough, close to a talent tipping point. 

VO stays. 

Sign him up, and if the talent around him comes to such a fruition that he's expendable - his numbers will be inflated on a good team and we can deal him for a greater return than we could now

Edited January 11, 2022 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Doesn't jive with me. 

So much of the optimism people are taking solace in is stuff like...."how can we not improve, when Caggiula and Hinostroza are replaced with the likes of Peterka and Quinn??" 

We don't improve by letting our BEST point producer go, and subbing in a rookie. That's not where you find the incremental improvement - that's where you find the incremental, at best, loss. 

We are not, and I cannot stress this enough, close to a talent tipping point. 

VO stays. 

You are assuming VO is traded for picks or prospects.  What if it's for a veteran RHD to play with Power or Dahlin?  What if it's for a proven goaltender?  What if VO isn't interested in signing a long-term deal (like Reinhart)?  What if KA only wants to give a 3 year deal (see Ullmark) and VO wants 5-6 years?  

There is more to the calculus then simply wanting someone to stay.  Staying has to be something acceptable to both parties.  

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You are assuming VO is traded for picks or prospects.  What if it's for a veteran RHD to play with Power or Dahlin?  What if it's for a proven goaltender?  What if VO isn't interested in signing a long-term deal (like Reinhart or Ullmark)?  What if KA only wants to give a 3 year deal (see Ullmark) and VO wants 5-6 years?  

There is more to the calculus then simply wanting someone to stay.  Staying has to be something acceptable to both parties.  

 

VO is a restricted free agent, and he's also not Sam Reinhart. Surely they have the acumen to lock up a player of his stature - the "what can he have even done?" preparation for Adams here to add to his big long list of other "what can he have done?"s is getting a bit comical. At some point you need to prioritize keeping the players who will help you find success, rather than another Ullmark situation where we let him walk because flexibility is more important than achieving wins. We need to find a way to actually win hockey games next year - it's very important for the success of the rebuild. 

Trading VO in a hockey trade would be totally ok - definitely not talking about that. Liquifying him for futures is ignoring the current nature of the team to the point of ineptitude, I'd argue. There's no way VO isn't a top 6 level player for this team next year - can't just let him go in the name of future asset. 

[Thorner]

The Sabres have OODLES of cap flexibility. Adams earned that through his stripping of the roster, his 700k signings, and signings like locking Thompson up to really good value. You amass that cache to cash it in at some point - we can get VO signed to non-debilitating terms *if* KA likes the player and wants him to be here. It should come down to whether Adams likes the player, and likes the player enough to avoid trading him, in a hockey trade, for another current player (s)

[Crusader1969]

Biggest question for me going into next season is Olofsson.   Will he be the point producing top 9 winger pre-injury 

or is he the JAG that we’ve seen since he returned ?  
I think 8 of the 9 forwards next season are written in ink 

Skinner Thompson Tuch

Peterka.  Cozens.   Quinn

Krebs      Mitts       Olofsson??? 

 

[DarthEbriate]

12 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Biggest question for me going into next season is Olofsson.   Will he be the point producing top 9 winger pre-injury 

or is he the JAG that we’ve seen since he returned ?  

That's a key thing to watch the rest of the season. Does he return to full health? If so, does he return to the right side on the PP and begin shooting one-timers again?

Victor's become a solid player all around. But that in itself just makes him a Hinostroza/Bjork/Vesey type. He's only worth building around if his elite shot returns. If it doesn't, then VO has to move on. I believe the shot returns by the end of the year and VO comes back next season.

[Thorner]

8 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Biggest question for me going into next season is Olofsson.   Will he be the point producing top 9 winger pre-injury 

or is he the JAG that we’ve seen since he returned ?  
I think 8 of the 9 forwards next season are written in ink 

Skinner Thompson Tuch

Peterka.  Cozens.   Quinn

Krebs      Mitts       Olofsson??? 

 

I looked this up like 3 days ago... VO hasn't been "JAG" since he returned. He was 3rd in F for points since returning 

Injury drop off notwithstanding - he's still literally producing more than most of our other players. 

Of course he comes back. 

[thewookie1]

Olofsson will get 4x5.25 mil or so and we’ll all move on to other topics