Prediction time: will Eichel be traded by the start of training camp, which is on Sunday, September 12?

[nfreeman]

So our last poll on this asked whether Jack would be traded by the draft.  The noes, including your humble narrator, won that poll 58%-42%, with heavy voter turnout.

A few things have happened since then:

- The draft and the start of FA, both of which are high-action events and thus good oppportunities for major trades to be made, have come and gone.

- Eichel's injury has apparently not responded to rest/rehab, making some kind of surgery very likely.

- The tone emanating from Eichel's camp has become pretty aggressive, with several statements openly urging a trade and challenging the Sabres' medical approach.

- KA has publicly and firmly stated that Eichel is under contract, that KA is fine with Eichel coming to camp and that the Sabres are only going to trade Eichel if it's a deal that is good for the Sabres.

- Teams have seemingly conducted a fair amount of negotiating through the media, with teams allegedly dropping out because the price is too high, the injury risk is too great, etc.

- Some teams, like Vegas, have most likely taken themselves out of the bidding by spending their assets/cap space elsewhere.

So where does that leave us?

I continue to think that the injury is a major factor and has depressed the prices that other GMs are willing to pay -- to the point where their offers simply aren't good enough for KA to accept.  That could change between now and Sept. 12, but I think it's more likely that the other GMs will not increase their offers without seeing Jack healthy and ready to play.

On the other hand, if Jack won't be healthy until he has surgery, that puts KA in a bind.  I don't think KA wants the Sabres to be on risk for Eichel's surgery.  I think he (and TP) wants to trade Eichel and let his new team take the risk.  But if no team is willing to increase its offer until after Jack has surgery and recovers, then KA either has to accept a lower offer than he wants, or allow Jack to have some kind of surgery, so he can recover and show the other teams that he's healthy.

It's a tricky situation.  I'm sure KA wants to avoid another ROR-type trade in which the Sabres get lousy value and look like buffoons, but he probably also wants Jack not to have surgery while he's the Sabres' property.  (I think KA would also like to avoid an ugly situation in which the 2 sides are publicly flaming each other and Jack is creating a problem in camp, but I think the other 2 factors are more important to him.)

I'm going to predict that the "let someone else take the injury risk" factor wins out and KA takes the best offer he can get before camp starts, but I don't have much confidence in the prediction.  I can easily see it going well into the season.

 

 

 

[I-90 W]

My prediction is trade deadline next year.

[Zamboni]

Sometime between now and before the NMC kicks in.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, I-90 W said:

My prediction is trade deadline next year.

I agree in general.  He has to get on the ice and show he is healthy and productive.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I voted no.

I don't think a reasonable trade will be possible before John is healed, either after surgery, or without it.

I think he will be traded before July 1, 2022, which is when (I think) his NMC kicks in.

[North Buffalo]

I have no idea... but probably would be good sooner than later... cant tell behind all the hyperbole what is realistic.

Edited August 2, 2021 by North Buffalo

[Radar]

I also think this injury and likely some kind of surgery is lowering the offers making a trade unlikely before training camp. KA can't afford a bad trade. On the flip side neither can a GM trading for him take the risk with Jack's medical issues of giving up a great amount in the unlikely case that Jack doesn't get back to his normal level. I think he needs to have some kind of surgery and any trade would be after that and before the trade deadline.

[LGR4GM]

[Trettioåtta]

I think it will be a huge distraction for the whole team if he isn't. That's bad when you're trying to reestablish a culture about people who want to be here, and teach them a new system etc.

[French Collection]

I voted yes not because I have any insight or gut feelings on it. I just want this to end, I am tired of the drama.

I’ve enjoyed his talent but he wasn’t my favourite Sabre and he definitely was not ready for the Captaincy so get rid of him please.

[Stoner]

34 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Do itttttt.

Wait.

Wut.

[Hoss]

14 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Do itttttt.

Wait.

Wut.

Meh

[Taro T]

Still expect him traded before the season.  But am fine with him still being a Sabre.

But Adams w/ an assist from Granato has some serious fences to mend at this point if he isn't traded.  Not convinced he's both willing and able to do that.  Hoping he is.

[darksabre]

I'm voting no. I think if anything was imminent we wouldn't be hearing a peep out of Eichel's camp. At this point they probably know he's stuck here through the season and they're acting out of desperation. 

[GoPuckYourself]

I voted No.

 

I mean a trade can happen in a blink but I'd have to say the best time was before the draft, most teams have took themselves out of the race by additions in free agency but we'll see. If teams can get creative it could happen but it will be interesting to see if Jack would even consider playing here still after all that's gone on.

[Marvin]

I think Eichel holds out of training camp and into the regular season.  He has an injury which has not responded to treatment.  He has no reason to risk anything, so why would he play anything but shinny?  I think he WANTS the trade to be ROR on steroids.

[Believer]

My bet is KA Will not get his pocket picked… and Eichel will refuse to go to training camp… Both good for the Sabres… If KA lets Eichel anywhere near the locker room, it will be a betrayal on his public statement that he “only wants players who want to be here”… and a setback to his credibility and to the rebuild… Give the “C” to a worthy player…

[bob_sauve28]

The real question is, will Jack get the surgery? Looks like Sabres are against it, as is Jack’s agent, but he wants it and knows the doctor who wants to do it. If he doesn’t heal, what will happen on that front? 

[Eleven]

He'll be traded when the Sabres get an offer equivalent to replacing the talent he has, unless Adams repeats previous errors.  There is no date.

[Curt]

At this point, I have no freaking idea when a trade will happen.

I think it’s entirely possible that Adams can’t get the trade value he wants until Eichel is healthy and playing.  Eichel won’t be healthy and playing unless he gets surgery.  Adams doesn’t want to be financially on the hook for a “risky” surgery, and would rather trade him first and let another team assume that risk.  But Adams can’t get the trade value he wants until Eichel is healthy and playing.

As you can see it’s a bit of a self perpetuating, circular problem without a natural end point.  So, what can break this circle?

(1) A team could take the risk and give up enough trade assets for an injured Eichel.  They would need to have a belief that things will turn out well with disk replacement surgery and be willing to put a lot of money on that.

(2) Adams could lower his ask and/or accept the best offer he can get to put an end to this situation.  So far he has seemed to stand firm, but will there come a time where taking less is worth it to put an end to this toxic situation.

(3) Adams (Pegula?)could let Eichel have disk replacement surgery and show he is healthy to restore trade value, then trade him.  In this case the Sabres assume a lot of financial risks associated with the surgery.  They would need some level of confidence that it will work out well.  So far they haven’t been willing to do it.

(4) Eichel’s camp files for injury arbitration and a third party can determine whether or not he can have disk replacement surgery.

(A combination of #1 and #2 could occur, where a team and Adams are kind of able to compromise, and each give a little more/get a little less than they’d like.  This is probably more likely than either #1 and #2.)

One of these scenarios listed above will need to happen eventually.  If not, then Eichel will just continue to need surgery, Sabres will continue trying to trade him for high value, and other teams will continue to be unwilling to pay that price.  Stuck.

Finally, when you think about it, it definitely sucks for Eichel.  I was just able to write all that without including any choices that he can make.  He is just kind of stuck in the big sticky, circular problem.  He has no control over it, he is only an asset involved in it.

This is the trouble with a private company having control over the health decisions of an employee.  The employee ceases to become person, and instead must be looked at as a financial asset or risk.  In a sense it’s almost unavoidable because a company will look at a situation through the lens of their short term financial well being, without real regard for Eichel’s wishes or career.

However, this type of situation is all around terrible from an humanity standpoint and a PR standpoint.  It doesn’t make anyone look good.  Hopefully this is rectified by changes to the CBA as soon as possible to create more equitable outcomes where players have a little more control over their bodies.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Curt

[Eleven]

He's healthy and her'll drop the surgery stuff as soon as he's out of Buffalo.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Eleven said:

He's healthy and her'll drop the surgery stuff as soon as he's out of Buffalo.

No way.  How?  Wouldn’t Sabres come out and say that if it was true?

[SDS]

17 minutes ago, Eleven said:

He's healthy and her'll drop the surgery stuff as soon as he's out of Buffalo.

 

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

No way.  How?  Wouldn’t Sabres come out and say that if it was true?

To say he is healthy is nuts. I’m sure the MRI scans show the protrusion.

[pi2000]

I believe he shows up to camp with a prepared statement.  Something along the lines of...

"...as of today I am a Buffalo Sabre and will do my best to  help the team in any way I can... unfortunately my injury will prevent me from playing the game I love.... Kevin Adams, ***** you very much."

 

Edited August 3, 2021 by pi2000

[Cascade Youth]

4 hours ago, Trettioåtta said:

I think it will be a huge distraction for the whole team if he isn't. That's bad when you're trying to reestablish a culture about people who want to be here, and teach them a new system etc.

Distraction from what, exactly?  Winning games?  Because that isn’t what’s going to be happening with or without Eichel.  This is a bottom five team this season no matter what - we should be able to stomach the “distraction” if it means getting a higher return for the future.