Defense in 2022-23 & Beyond

[bob_sauve28]

Joki looks really good, too. Nice having him back and playing really well. Butcher is an ok insurance policy, but nothing to turn to long term 

[mjd1001]

Does anyone really know how Ryan Johnson is looking as far as his chances for the Sabres next year or beyond?  I haven't heard/read much about him....the little I remember is some saying he could be a legit NHL D-man soon...and other times he might not even be an NHL guy.  But nothing I can even remember where I saw any of that.

For being a late first round pick, there is very little discussion or news about him.

[Curt]

16 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Does anyone really know how Ryan Johnson is looking as far as his chances for the Sabres next year or beyond?  I haven't heard/read much about him....the little I remember is some saying he could be a legit NHL D-man soon...and other times he might not even be an NHL guy.  But nothing I can even remember where I saw any of that.

For being a late first round pick, there is very little discussion or news about him.

He is playing pretty well at Minnesota.  Would be very surprised if jumps to being a full time NHL player next season though.

He likely signs with Sabres after this season, then plays a year in Rochester.  Then we’ll know more what we have.

Probably there isn’t as much discussion about him because there are several young LHD o head of him on the depth chart.  Dahlin, Bryson, Samuelsson, Power, Johnson

[mjd1001]

Just now, Curt said:

He is playing pretty well at Minnesota.  Would be very surprised if jumps to being a full time NHL player next season though.

He likely signs with Sabres after this season, then plays a year in Rochester.  Then we’ll know more what we have.

Probably there isn’t as much discussion about him because there are several young LHD o head of him on the depth chart.  Dahlin, Bryson, Samuelsson, Power, Johnson

I know the Sabres have a lot of holes yet, but if I'm KA, I really hope he is thinking which of these LHD prospect can he trade (maybe with something else in addition to it) to get an equal level or better RHD prospect that will fit in with this team.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

I know the Sabres have a lot of holes yet, but if I'm KA, I really hope he is thinking which of these LHD prospect can he trade (maybe with something else in addition to it) to get an equal level or better RHD prospect that will fit in with this team.

I highly doubt you will see a direct LHD for RHD prospect trade.

1) because that can be hard to find such a specific trade partner who has too many RHD prospects, not enough LHD prospects, and also likes whoever you are trying to trade a lot.

2) because NHL GMs are chickens and don’t want to open themselves up to criticism if they “lose” that trade.

[dudacek]

Johnson is in the mold of Bryson or Jokiharju - not particularly big or offensive, but very smooth and capable. He might ultimately be better in his own zone than either.

He is a fantastic skater, whose biggest strengths are defending the rush, evading the forecheck and moving the puck out of his zone. His numbers are solid - 10 points in 15 games - and he reads the play well, but he won’t be a big points producer in the NHL. He looked good winning gold in last year’s WJC and is a key member of a very good Minnesota blueline.

Despite the fact he’s a college junior, he is also a baby. He turned 20 in late July and is only two months younger than Jack Quinn and last I heard, still has some filling out to do. Adams recently told WGR that he still has to refine what kind of player he is going to be.

In answer to your question, it doesn’t look like he is either disappointing, or exceeding expectations given his age and where he was picked.

Logic dictates the Jake McCabe path; he’s in a similar situation and is a similar level prospect. That means he signs at the end of his college season, possibly gets a look in Buffalo, and hopefully joins the Amerks for a playoff run. He’ll probably need at least next year in the AHL, and if that goes well, fights for a spot in Buffalo the following year.

Personally, I see his ceiling as a reliable, smooth 2nd-pair guy in a Henrik Tallinder role, - obviously without Hank’s length, and with his elite feet as his calling card. Not a slam-dunk he gets there.

 

30 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Does anyone really know how Ryan Johnson is looking as far as his chances for the Sabres next year or beyond?  I haven't heard/read much about him....the little I remember is some saying he could be a legit NHL D-man soon...and other times he might not even be an NHL guy.  But nothing I can even remember where I saw any of that.

For being a late first round pick, there is very little discussion or news about him.

 

[mjd1001]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Johnson is in the mold of Bryson or Jokiharju - not particularly big or offensive, but very smooth and capable. He might ultimately be better in his own zone than either.

He is a fantastic skater, whose biggest strengths are defending the rush, evading the forecheck and moving the puck out of his zone. His numbers are solid - 10 points in 15 games - and he reads the play well, but he won’t be a big points producer in the NHL. He looked good winning gold in last year’s WJC and is a key member of a very good Minnesota blueline.

Despite the fact he’s a college junior, he is also a baby. He turned 20 in late July and is only two months younger than Jack Quinn and last I heard, still has some filling out to do. Adams recently told WGR that he still has to refine what kind of player he is going to be.

In answer to your question, it doesn’t look like he is either disappointing, or exceeding expectations given his age and where he was picked.

Logic dictates the Jake McCabe path; he’s in a similar situation and is a similar level prospect. That means he signs at the end of his college season, possibly gets a look in Buffalo, and hopefully joins the Amerks for a playoff run. He’ll probably need at least next year in the AHL, and if that goes well, fights for a spot in Buffalo the following year.

Personally, I see his ceiling as a reliable, smooth 2nd-pair guy in a Henrik Tallinder role, - obviously without Hank’s length, and with his elite feet as his calling card. Not a slam-dunk he gets there.

 

 

Thanks.  That is kinda what I was looking for. We hear a lot of updates of the players in Roch obviously, but I've always been interested in Johnson.

[JohnC]

58 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Johnson is in the mold of Bryson or Jokiharju - not particularly big or offensive, but very smooth and capable. He might ultimately be better in his own zone than either.

He is a fantastic skater, whose biggest strengths are defending the rush, evading the forecheck and moving the puck out of his zone. His numbers are solid - 10 points in 15 games - and he reads the play well, but he won’t be a big points producer in the NHL. He looked good winning gold in last year’s WJC and is a key member of a very good Minnesota blueline.

Despite the fact he’s a college junior, he is also a baby. He turned 20 in late July and is only two months younger than Jack Quinn and last I heard, still has some filling out to do. Adams recently told WGR that he still has to refine what kind of player he is going to be.

In answer to your question, it doesn’t look like he is either disappointing, or exceeding expectations given his age and where he was picked.

Logic dictates the Jake McCabe path; he’s in a similar situation and is a similar level prospect. That means he signs at the end of his college season, possibly gets a look in Buffalo, and hopefully joins the Amerks for a playoff run. He’ll probably need at least next year in the AHL, and if that goes well, fights for a spot in Buffalo the following year.

Personally, I see his ceiling as a reliable, smooth 2nd-pair guy in a Henrik Tallinder role, - obviously without Hank’s length, and with his elite feet as his calling card. Not a slam-dunk he gets there.

 

 

Will Laaksonen make the roster next year? What's his style of play?

If Power, Samuelsson and Laaksonen are on the roster next year that's quite a young group on the blue line. If you add them with Joki and Dahlin you are looking at a unit with a lot of young players. 

[Curt]

49 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Will Laaksonen make the roster next year? What's his style of play?

If Power, Samuelsson and Laaksonen are on the roster next year that's quite a young group on the blue line. If you add them with Joki and Dahlin you are looking at a unit with a lot of young players. 

Laaksonen is mostly an offensive defenseman.  Who knows if he will make the Sabres next season.  He could, but it probably depends on if they bring in any RD in the offseason.

Dahlin and Jokiharju will be in their 5th NHL seasons next year, I don’t think we will really be able to call them inexperienced any longer.  Overall it will definitely be  a young group though.  I hope they have a couple Pysyk type of steady veterans still on the blue line.

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, JohnC said:

Will Laaksonen make the roster next year? What's his style of play?

If Power, Samuelsson and Laaksonen are on the roster next year that's quite a young group on the blue line. If you add them with Joki and Dahlin you are looking at a unit with a lot of young players. 

Laaksonen skates well and knows how to work the offensive blueline.

When I watched him as a junior he rushed the puck a lot more and turned over a lot more than I see him doing now in Rochester. He gets overpowered in puck battles and loses coverage in his own zone.

Personally, don’t think his offence is good enough to make up for his defence and his transition game is meh. Maybe he overcomes that; he’s 22 and a 2nd-year pro. Best case scenario is 3rd pair PP specialist and we don’t need one of those. I don’t think he’s an NHL player.

Edited November 27, 2021 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

With a few weeks to go in the season the D seems to have settled in.  They kept Nash from getting a shot for almost 17 minutes at one point last night.

Dahlin has become a star.  Samuelsson has been excellent as the physical stay at home D but is also showing a willingness to get involved offensively.  Joki is steady and DG likes him on the second PP.  

Those 3 are locks for next season and honestly Bryson and Fitzgerald are making strong cases to stay in the lineup next fall.  Bryson’s play since being moved to the right side has been excellent regardless of who he has been paired with. Fitz has been solid as well while adding a little needed feistiness to the group.  

Once Power is inserted and assuming KA adds a veteran RHD to the young group, he is going to have a hard time sitting either Bryson or Fitz

[DarthEbriate]

On 11/27/2021 at 11:41 AM, dudacek said:

Laaksonen skates well and knows how to work the offensive blueline.

When I watched him as a junior he rushed the puck a lot more and turned over a lot more than I see him doing now in Rochester. He gets overpowered in puck battles and loses coverage in his own zone.

Personally, don’t think his offence is good enough to make up for his defence and his transition game is meh. Maybe he overcomes that; he’s 22 and a 2nd-year pro. Best case scenario is 3rd pair PP specialist and we don’t need one of those. I don’t think he’s an NHL player.

Call up AGMJBott in Seattle. Puck mover and a bit undersized? Perfect!

Get a pick if he’s not the future. 

[LGR4GM]

On 11/27/2021 at 9:54 AM, Curt said:

I highly doubt you will see a direct LHD for RHD prospect trade.

1) because that can be hard to find such a specific trade partner who has too many RHD prospects, not enough LHD prospects, and also likes whoever you are trying to trade a lot.

2) because NHL GMs are chickens and don’t want to open themselves up to criticism if they “lose” that trade.

LA Kings

Clarke 19, Grans 19, Faber 19, Durzi 23, Spence 20

And Johnson is from Anaheim and plays with Faber in college. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

Curious what people think about the fact that during the 2nd half of the season Henri Jokiharju has been on the ice for as many goals for as he has against, while Rasmus Dahlin has been on for 9 more against.

They generally play together and face the toughest opposition.

Semi-related, do people care that Casey Fitzgerald has been outscored by 15 in just 22 games? Or that Mark Pysyk has been outscored by 10 in 24 - generally in 3rd-pairing usage?

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Curious what people think about the fact that during the 2nd half of the season Henri Jokiharju has been on the ice for as many goals for as he has against, while Rasmus Dahlin has been on for 9 more against.

They generally play together and face the toughest opposition.

Semi-related, do people care that Casey Fitzgerald has been outscored by 15 in just 22 games? Or that Mark Pysyk has been outscored by 10 in 24 - generally in 3rd-pairing usage?

The team is -55 for the season.  Isn’t everyone negative? How much of that is on the goaltending? How much is the D? How have they been in hte last 20 games?

Edited April 5, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The team is -55 for the season.  Isn’t everyone negative? How much of that is on the goaltending? How much is the D? How have they been in hte last 20 games?

No, Bryson is +4 over that period and, as I said, Joki is even. Hagg was also even, Mule -6

They’ve all played in front of the same 2 goalies.

This is for the 2nd half of the season, so the past 29 games.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

No, Bryson is +4 over that period and, as I said, Joki is even. Hagg was also even, Mule -6

They’ve all played in front of the same 2 goalies.

This is for the 2nd half of the season, so the past 29 games.

 

Take out special teams and what are the numbers for the D? Where do you get find these stats?

Edited April 5, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Take out special teams and what are the numbers for the D?

Those are ES numbers from NHL.com

Edited April 5, 2022 by dudacek

[Broken Ankles]

 

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Curious what people think about the fact that during the 2nd half of the season Henri Jokiharju has been on the ice for as many goals for as he has against, while Rasmus Dahlin has been on for 9 more against.

They generally play together and face the toughest opposition.

Semi-related, do people care that Casey Fitzgerald has been outscored by 15 in just 22 games? Or that Mark Pysyk has been outscored by 10 in 24 - generally in 3rd-pairing usage?

Haven't given a thought until you mentioned it.  As someone who was highly critical of Dahlin in Oct/Nov I feel I need to come his defense on how those numbers (+/-) don't tell the whole story in the second half.  In the detail below from Natural Stat trick, from January 9th to present Dahlin has a little bit more time (228 to 175 minutes) with others than Joki had with others.  And the chances, High Danger, Fenwick, Corsi, and expected goals are all better with Dahlin than Joki.  And not just by a little, by a lot.  Except goals for, which Joki has a plus 1. 

 

 Their performance together in the same period shows about twice as many minutes (448) and the expected goals and Corsi numbers are between the metrics without.  With actual goals for around 3% below the expected.   

                    

 

  On the semi-related point about Casey and Mark, yeah, that is concerning and why I have not been a proponent of bringing Mark back unless it's as #8.  Bringing it back to point 1, I think Joki is not the ideal compliment to Dahlin and with a true #2 RD Dahlin's numbers in actuals goals for could explode next year.  As in those 60%+ Corsi and High Danger chances, only they are executing better so the net difference is a positive +/.  Similarly, Power could play with a steadying veteran force leaving Jokiharju on a third pair with Muel where together they would excel.  I'm thinking of Gudas imposing himself physically against the Sabres yesterday.  Separating man from puck multiple times.   Give me two of those please.  

Edited April 5, 2022 by Broken Ankles
attachment

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Curious what people think about the fact that during the 2nd half of the season Henri Jokiharju has been on the ice for as many goals for as he has against, while Rasmus Dahlin has been on for 9 more against.

They generally play together and face the toughest opposition.

Semi-related, do people care that Casey Fitzgerald has been outscored by 15 in just 22 games? Or that Mark Pysyk has been outscored by 10 in 24 - generally in 3rd-pairing usage?

Do people care about that? Well, I don't. Not really. These things are more complicated and need a much deeper analysis to have meaning. Who was the goalie? Which forward line was on at the time? Who was the opposition? and so forth. 

Casey is far from a good D man but he plays with the right attitude and effort and so I'm sticking with him for that reason until somebody with definitely better talent arrives. Pysyk is just a journeyman player who should be lower than the top 6. I still don't like the Joker Dahlin pairing but I'm not sure we have a better option right now. 

The reality is the team plays horrible team defense, which is part of why I say we have a long way to go still. BUT, they're scoring goals now and playing with some intensity so they look like a hockey team again and that's a start. Defense has to improve though no question. Power will help (in time) but we still need more. 

[SwampD]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Curious what people think about the fact that during the 2nd half of the season Henri Jokiharju has been on the ice for as many goals for as he has against, while Rasmus Dahlin has been on for 9 more against.

They generally play together and face the toughest opposition.

Semi-related, do people care that Casey Fitzgerald has been outscored by 15 in just 22 games? Or that Mark Pysyk has been outscored by 10 in 24 - generally in 3rd-pairing usage?

No.

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Curious what people think about the fact that during the 2nd half of the season Henri Jokiharju has been on the ice for as many goals for as he has against, while Rasmus Dahlin has been on for 9 more against.

They generally play together and face the toughest opposition.

Semi-related, do people care that Casey Fitzgerald has been outscored by 15 in just 22 games? Or that Mark Pysyk has been outscored by 10 in 24 - generally in 3rd-pairing usage?

I think this board overrated Fitzgerald because he hit stuff and jumps into srums.

[Crusader1969]

They need to find a RHD in the UFA market - a guy with a beard to solidify them.

Otherwise i think the D is pretty set for next year

Dahlin and Jokiharji
Power and Beard Guy
Samuelsson and the best Johnson/Fitzgerald/Bryson/Pysyk

[Crusader1969]

Potential Beard Guys:

[Zamboni]

22 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

They need to find a RHD in the UFA market - a guy with a beard to solidify them.

Otherwise i think the D is pretty set for next year

Dahlin and Jokiharji
Power and Beard Guy
Samuelsson and the best Johnson/Fitzgerald/Bryson/Pysyk