The Russian Are Coming! Well maybe, possibly sometime in the future and other Draft Thoughts.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, Weave said:

Look 1 post above you.  Published last year.

Those numbers look similar but success rate later a little higher.  What is the same is the cliff after pick 25.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

So that's 24-29% of all drafted players play at least 100? Not questioning it, still doesn't seem to jive to me considering, according to the quoted numbers above, that it's supposedly at 20% already by the 4th round, and there's still 3 more rounds of decreasing odds

What you are forgetting is the effectiveness of the 100+ games.  In these general calculations grinders are counted the same as superstars.  It doesn’t feel like 30% because most are, sorry to say, easily replaced players and many of those bounce between the NHL and AHL.  My guess is maybe 10-15 reach 800 games each year.

Edited August 27, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

I actually like to say 150 games and .4ppg (32pts) for forwards and .18ppg (15pts) for defense. Below that and you are replacement level, ie I can easily find someone else to do most or all of what you do. 

[Curt]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What you are forgetting is the effectiveness of the 100+ games.  In these general calculations grinders are counted the same as superstars.  It doesn’t feel like 30% because most are, sorry to say, easily replaced players and many of those bounce between the NHL and AHL.  My guess is maybe 10-15 reach 800 games each year.

This is true.  I think there are probably a lot of players who end up playing 100-200 games over a 4-5 year period in their mid 20’s who never amount to much and are then replaced and out of the league.

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, Curt said:

This is true.  I think there are probably a lot of players who end up playing 100-200 games over a 4-5 year period in their mid 20’s who never amount to much and are then replaced and out of the league.

The Cory Conacher

[Zamboni]

Oh the ever adjusting “moving goalposts everyone’s definition is different” to what a “hit” is when drafting prospects 😂

that’s why there will never be a definitive agreement on how well a team did at drafts.

Some think the Sabres suck at drafting for 10+ years. They did nothing right for 10+ years.

some look at what other teams have done, and think the Sabres have done rather average at drafting when comparing them. Not great. Not terrible.

when I did all those threads about different rounds and how well teams did, in my opinion, I thought the Sabres (when comparing them to all the other teams) were in the middle of the pack with how well they did with drafting. they weren’t in the top 10, and they weren’t in the bottom 10. Most years. And obviously it ebbs and flows from year to year. One or two years Ottawa or Boston, or LA did absolutely terrible, and then a year or two later they did really good in the draft. Again everyone’s opinion is different. And no one‘s convincing anyone to change their opinion on it.

Edited August 27, 2021 by Zamboni

[Thorner]

I dunno, I learned something new from this discussion in the last hour..