The Russian Are Coming! Well maybe, possibly sometime in the future and other Draft Thoughts.

[dudacek]

Wilfred van barnacle Liechtenstein is rivaling Morris Titanic, Taro Tsujimoto and Jean-Luc Big-Stones for the best name in Sabre history.

Our 1st Russian pick? He’s P(random syllables)ov.

6 minutes ago, Curt said:

I’m concerned about the spelling attempts I’ll see for Poltapov, Kisakov, Sardarian, Marjala, Von Barnekow, and Novikov.

I mean, a fair number of posters are still having trouble with Staal after like 15 years, so I’m worried for them.

 

Edited July 25, 2021 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

I’m concerned about the spelling attempts I’ll see for Poltapov, Kisakov, Sardarian, Marjala, Von Barnekow, and Novikov.

I mean, a fair number of posters are still having trouble with Staal after like 15 years, so I’m worried for them.

Rick saw this draft and it convinced him to retire.

[WildCard]

 

[Flashsabre]

I love that they swung for the fences this year on high end skill. Of all years, this was the one to do it with the chaos Covid played on everything.

Drafting Russians and CHL players beyond the 1st round, what a concept!!😀

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

I love that they swung for the fences this year on high end skill. Of all years, this was the one to do it with the chaos Covid played on everything.

Drafting Russians and CHL players beyond the 1st round, what a concept!!😀

What's not to love.  It worked so well for the last GM w/ that mindset.  😉

More seriously.  My biggest issue w/ this draft is essentially avoiding C like the plague & goaltending too, though with the Levi trade they can make a strong case they added a prospect, & pretty much D as well after round 1.

Seems they went after goalscorers & guys that drive the net - 2 things this team lacks historically (even when they did ice NHL squads) but the cupboard is completely barren of C's.  So, they did address a need.  But wanted to see C addressed better.  But if the plan is to go heavy there next year, maybe long run it works out. 

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

What's not to love.  It worked so well for the last GM w/ that mindset.  😉

More seriously.  My biggest issue w/ this draft is essentially avoiding C like the plague & goaltending too, though with the Levi trade they can make a strong case they added a prospect, & pretty much D as well after round 1.

Seems they went after goalscorers & guys that drive the net - 2 things this team lacks historically (even when they did ice NHL squads) but the cupboard is completely barren of C's.  So, they did address a need.  But wanted to see C addressed better.  But if the plan is to go heavy there next year, maybe long run it works out. 

Whether or not we acquire young prospect Cs of high value in the Eichel deal will imo be revelatory for how ardently we intend to tank next season and perhaps the one after, should that be necessary and we fail in gaining Wright. 

[Taro T]

51 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Whether or not we acquire young prospect Cs of high value in the Eichel deal will imo be revelatory for how ardently we intend to tank next season and perhaps the one after, should that be necessary and we fail in gaining Wright. 

Maybe.  While the talking heads are all making it sound like there'll be a player or 2 useful now in that return package, am very skeptical.  Expecting to see 2 1sts & a stud prospect & a good prospect.  

Want him not to be traded, but that ship has sailed.  So would rather have 2 useful pieces now & just 1 each of the others than 2x2.  But doubt we get that either. 

Worst.  Summer.  Ever.

[LGR4GM]

Sabres felt very confident in the advanced analytics they got out of the MHL. Sounds like that helped them feel confident in picking the Russians

[Thorner]

26 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Maybe.  While the talking heads are all making it sound like there'll be a player or 2 useful now in that return package, am very skeptical.  Expecting to see 2 1sts & a stud prospect & a good prospect.  

Want him not to be traded, but that ship has sailed.  So would rather have 2 useful pieces now & just 1 each of the others than 2x2.  But doubt we get that either. 

Worst.  Summer.  Ever.

Ya I mean if they don’t gain the C assets they need in the deal, I’m sure they’ll be targeting them at the top of next year’s draft, if that isn’t already the plan. They’ve gotta come from somewhere. Like you said, the ship has sailed for them on the 2 we had being the answer. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sabres felt very confident in the advanced analytics they got out of the MHL. Sounds like that helped them feel confident in picking the Russians

I think that is very true.  Sounds like they actually had real scouting there despite their miniscule scouting dept.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think that is very true.  Sounds like they actually had real scouting there despite their miniscule scouting dept.

Director of amateur scouting:

"“There was an emphasis in our organization the past year and a half or so to really get deeply into looking at some of the Russian and Czech Republic players,” said Forton, who noted that Sabres scout Frank Musil saw the players in person while he and others watched video. “The analytic data out of the Russian leagues is very advanced and very accurate from our perspective, so all that gave us a comfort level.”

https://theathletic.com/2728899/2021/07/25/sabres-pleased-with-their-draft-haul-from-owen-power-to-a-run-on-russians-i-think-we-took-a-big-step?source=user-shared-article

[LGR4GM]

We should be talking more about Nikita Novikov. I hope he can come to rookie camp because he will make a big impression. If you want a blend of throwback physical defender mixed with puck moving zone exiting defender... the 6'4" Novikov is your guy. He also has a July birthday which makes things even better because we could see a big jump this year in his counting stats. 

[Curt]

45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We should be talking more about Nikita Novikov. I hope he can come to rookie camp because he will make a big impression. If you want a blend of throwback physical defender mixed with puck moving zone exiting defender... the 6'4" Novikov is your guy. He also has a July birthday which makes things even better because we could see a big jump this year in his counting stats. 

Hope so.  He has had good offensive production at U18 levels.  I’d love to see that carry over to the U20 junior league this season.

[pi2000]

these russians are not first round picks, chances they even play 1 NHL game are 50/50 at best..... counting on them to be primary contributors is mis-guided

[Weave]

10 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

these russians are not first round picks, chances they even play 1 NHL game are 50/50 at best..... counting on them to be primary contributors is mis-guided

More like 25% statistically.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

these russians are not first round picks, chances they even play 1 NHL game are 50/50 at best..... counting on them to be primary contributors is mis-guided

Is anyone doing that though?

Surely it’s ok to be hopeful and excited about draft picks.  

2 hours ago, Weave said:

More like 25% statistically.

Roughly 50% of all drafted prospects end up playing at least 1 NHL game.

Probability that a draft pick will play 100 NHL games.

2nd round - 35%
3rd round - 25%
4th round - 20%
 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Is anyone doing that though?

Surely it’s ok to be hopeful and excited about draft picks.  

Roughly 50% of all drafted prospects end up playing at least 1 NHL game.

Probability that a draft pick will play 100 NHL games.

2nd round - 35%
3rd round - 25%
4th round - 20%
 

I was still closer than 50% was.

[LGR4GM]

 

[Thorner]

15 hours ago, Curt said:

Is anyone doing that though?

Surely it’s ok to be hopeful and excited about draft picks.  

Roughly 50% of all drafted prospects end up playing at least 1 NHL game.

Probability that a draft pick will play 100 NHL games.

2nd round - 35%
3rd round - 25%
4th round - 20%
 

These numbers are striking to me. 

Would have thought WAY less than 50% of all drafted players play. 

6 4th round picks every draft go onto 100 games played? Would have thought lower. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

These numbers are striking to me. 

Would have thought WAY less than 50% of all drafted players play. 

6 4th round picks every draft go onto 100 games played? Would have thought lower. 

I think it is like 50-60 players from each draft play at least 100 games. 

[Weave]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

These numbers are striking to me. 

Would have thought WAY less than 50% of all drafted players play. 

6 4th round picks every draft go onto 100 games played? Would have thought lower. 

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

It seems that the success rates have come up a little bit.

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I think it is like 50-60 players from each draft play at least 100 games. 

Sine 2000, 55 seems to be about the average according to Dobber.

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

These numbers are striking to me. 

Would have thought WAY less than 50% of all drafted players play. 

6 4th round picks every draft go onto 100 games played? Would have thought lower. 

The number that play at least game varies year to year depending on the strength of the draft, but 45-52 % is a good figure.  Hockeydb.com has the % on their draft pages.  As to the 4th It is lower.  Scott Cullen, then w TSN, did a study and it’s about 18% or less.  It goes down to 11% in later rounds.  I’ll dig up his study and post the numbers when I get a chance.

Edited August 27, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The number that play 1 game varies year to year depending on the strength of the draft. Hockeydb.com has the % on their draft pages.  As to the 4th It is lower.  Scott Cullen, then w TSN, did a study and it’s about 18% or less.  It goes down to 11% in later rounds.  I’ll dig up his study and post the numbers when I get a chance.

Look 1 post above you.  Published last year.

[Thorner]

16 hours ago, Curt said:

Is anyone doing that though?

Surely it’s ok to be hopeful and excited about draft picks.  

Roughly 50% of all drafted prospects end up playing at least 1 NHL game.

Probability that a draft pick will play 100 NHL games.

2nd round - 35%
3rd round - 25%
4th round - 20%
 

 

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think it is like 50-60 players from each draft play at least 100 games. 

So that's 24-29% of all drafted players play at least 100? Not questioning it, still doesn't seem to jive to me considering, according to the quoted numbers above, that it's supposedly at 20% already by the 4th round, and there's still 3 more rounds of decreasing odds

Edited August 27, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorner]

13 minutes ago, Weave said:

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

It seems that the success rates have come up a little bit.

Sine 2000, 55 seems to be about the average according to Dobber.

Very interesting.