Face it, the plan for next year is another tank

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think "tank" is a banned word.  We are calling it rebuilding 4.0

KA said in his presser that he didn't want to "Box Out" his kids. 

I think KA views this team as follows

Centers:  Mitts, Cozens, R2 and Eakin

LW: Skinner,  Asplund, Girgensons, (Sheahan or Caggiula - if re-signed)

RW: Olofsson, Thompson, KO, Bjork (If Quinn makes the team Bjork moves to LW)

On Defense:  He has the following kids with NHL experience: Dahlin, Jokiharju, Bryson, and Samuelsson.  Plus Power if signed along with the Vets Miller and Hagg).

Other then goaltending, he basically has a full roster of players as long as the RFAs are re-signed.  

Our current Cap situation without Jack is 34,475,000 for 9 forwards and 3 D with 4 RFAS (Mitts, Asplund, Jokiharju and Dahlin).  Dahlin is the only one who should command big $.  I can see Mitts getting a Thompson type deal, with Asplund and Jokiharju getting 1 to 1.25 for a couple of years.  Say 9-10 for all 4 guys including 5.5 to Dahlin? That puts us at 11F and 5 D and approx 45 mill in cap with 2 goalie left to acquire.

I also think that he correctly believes he is sitting on 22 mill in bad contracts in Skinner, KO Eakin, Miller and Girgensons and isn't really interested in other teams' bad deals (unlike AZ).

With this framework in mind I think it helps explain (not excuse) how the two trades went down.  To get extra assets, Fla's GM said we had to take back a bad contract or two.  KA said forget it, and thus no Vatrano or Bob or Stralman or whomever for added prospects or draft picks.  Personally, I think this was a huge mistake, but I understand the rationale.  I wonder if he may revisit this at the trade deadline, to accept an expiring contract or two then for prospects/picks.

Contrast that with the Risto trade.  One I think there was a bidding war making KA's job easier and Philly, like Fla, said we had to take a contract to get the extra draft pick.  In this case Hagg was a perfect sweetener.  One year inexpensive deal, we were likely to sign a depth D anyway for at least 800k to 1,000,000 and at 26 Hagg still has a chance to contribute. (unlike Irwin).      

While this "give the kids a chance" off-season game plan is something I agree with in principal, I think it's a huge mistake to put that much weight on Mitts and Cozens as the top two centers next season.  I want to see Mitts and Cozens perform well for a full season before deciding they are the future.  As much as I like both players, I just don't think they are ready to replace Jack and Sam.  

Obviously this scenario may change when we see the return for Eichel, but it looks like KA is going young and cheap and seeing if they can build on the promise from late last season.  Still that group had a NO. 1 center in Reinhart.  

Edited July 25, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

@thorny further to the above, Peterka, Quinn, this year’s large crop, and next year’s two first rounders all avoid next year’s tough season and hopefully join and augment a team on the way up when they are ready.

We drafted a bunch of players in 2014 and 2015 besides Eichel and Reinhart too though that weren't around for the losing itself and were supposed to augment. Where is Eric Cornel? We had these "young players on the way" then, too - that's kinda the point I'm trying to make. 

It seems as though, rather than capable veteran leadership being identified by Adams as the factor that will make this rebuild different than the last, with a desire to remain competitive in the "losing" years, they are on the track you have identified where, they still intend on being bad and ridding the roster of the "now" players they can, but this time have a larger backing of prospects to rely upon, along with the stud C from next year's draft if they can get him along the way. 

They seem to be somewhere in between the outright tank of the past but a lesser regard for competitiveness than say the Leafs tank. The roster as constructed is much closer to the tank of the past but there is still time. 

5 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 

The funny thing is, Wright isn't even as highly touted as the guy the NEXT year, Bedard. So if the Sabres miss out on Wright, what's one more year, right?

[Buffalonill]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

We drafted a bunch of players in 2014 and 2015 besides Eichel and Reinhart too though that weren't around for the losing itself and were supposed to augment. Where is Eric Cornel? We had these "young players on the way" then, too - that's kinda the point I'm trying to make. 

It seems as though, rather than capable veteran leadership being identified by Adams as the factor that will make this rebuild different than the last, with a desire to remain competitive in the "losing" years, they are on the track you have identified where, they still intend on being bad and ridding the roster of the "now" players they can, but this time have a larger backing of prospects to rely upon, along with the stud C from next year's draft if they can get him along the way. 

They seem to be somewhere in between the outright tank of the past but a lesser regard for competitiveness than say the Leafs tank. The roster as constructed is much closer to the tank of the past but there is still time. 

The funny thing is, Wright isn't even as highly touted as the guy the NEXT year, Bedard. So if the Sabres miss out on Wright, what's one more year, right?

It's good time to suck probably  Why buffalo wants to start over

[Thorner]

17 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

@WildCard

Why Burlington hockey phenom Shane Wright is already being compared to Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/sports/hockey/2020/11/14/why-burlington-hockey-phenom-shane-wright-is-already-being-compared-to-sidney-crosby-and-connor-mcdavid.html

 

Teen phenom Matthew Savoie draws comparisons to Sidney Crosby

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4500318

 

Watching Lambert play is like watching a Nathan MacKinnon clone. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/hockey/.amp/news/three-headed-monster-meet-wright-savoie-and-lambert-the-next-great-draft-trio

Adding the other two with similar comparisons unfortunately dilutes your arguement 

[Weave]

@GASabresIUFANIn this scenario bad contracts are not a negative, with 2 caveats, 1. Term is relatively short and 2. They have gas in the tank.

With those 2 caveats “bad contracts” represent veteran players to take the pressure and teach the kids to be good pros.  Those two things are needed regsrdless of contract size and will be critical to rebuild success anyway.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Weave

[Buffalonill]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Adding the other two with similar comparisons unfortunately dilutes your arguement 

 

I didn't do the comparison that's nhl  Scouts

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 

I didn't do the comparison that's nhl  Scouts

My point is that they aren't all going to be Crosby - the fact they are saying it could result so often, and then results so in-often, illustrates how little stock we can place in those drawn comparisons. 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Doohicksie]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think "tank" is a banned word.  We are calling it rebuilding 4.0

KA said in his presser that he didn't want to "Box Out" his kids. 

I think KA views this team as follows

Centers:  Mitts, Cozens, R2 and Eakin

LW: Skinner,  Asplund, Girgensons, (Sheahan or Caggiula - if re-signed)

RW: Olofsson, Thompson, KO, Bjork (If Quinn makes the team Bjork moves to LW)

On Defense:  He has the following kids with NHL experience: Dahlin, Jokiharju, Bryson, and Samuelsson.  Plus Power if signed along with the Vet Miller.

Other then goaltending, he basically has a full roster of players as long as the RFAs are re-signed.  

Our current Cap situation without Jack is 34,475,000 for 9 forwards and 3 D with 4 RFAS (Mitts, Asplund, Jokiharju and Dahlin).  Dahlin is the only one who should command big $.  I can see Mitts getting a Thompson type deal, with Asplund and Jokiharju getting 1 to 1.25 for a couple of years.  Say 9-10 for all 4 guys including 5.5 to Dahlin? That puts us at 11F and 5 D and approx 45 mill in cap with 2 goalie left to acquire.

I also think that he correctly believes he is sitting on 22 mill in bad contracts in Skinner, KO Eakin, Miller and Girgensons and isn't really interested in other teams' bad deals (unlike AZ).

 

With this framework in mind I think it helps explain (not excuse) how the two trades went down.  To get extra assets, Fla's GM said we had to take back a bad contract or two.  KA said forget it, and thus no Vatrano or Bob or Stralman or whomever for added prospects or draft picks.  Personally, I think this was a huge mistake, but I understand the rationale.  I wonder if he may revisit this at the trade deadline, to accept an expiring contract or two then for prospects/picks.

Contrast that with the Risto trade.  One I think there was a bidding war making KA's job easier and Philly, like Fla, said we had to take a contract to get the extra draft pick.  In this case Hagg was a perfect sweetener.  One year inexpensive deal, we were likely to sign a depth D anyway for at least 800k to 1,000,000 and at 26 Hagg still has a chance to contribute. (unlike Irwin).      

While this give the kids a chance off-season gameplan is something I agree with in principal, I think it's a huge mistake to put that much wait on Mitts and Cozens as the top two centers next season.  I want to see Mitts and Cozens perform well for a full season before deciding they are the future.  As much as I like both players, I just don't think they are ready to replace Jack and Sam.  

Obviously this scenario may change when we see the return for Eichel, but it looks like KA is going young and cheap and seeing if they can build on the promise from late last season.  Still that group had a NO. 1 center in Reinhart.  

I agree with much of that, but I think that if an NHL top-six ready center doesn't come in the Eichel trade, 1C might surprisingly be Girgensons.  Not that he is that good, but because he can take the pressure.  He was highly touted when he first came up, he's shown flashes of skill but he's been behind ROR, Eichel, Reino, etc., as far as skill guys go and found his niche on the shutdown line.  I think the shutdown experience will make him a good 2-way center between two more offensively minded wingers, probably Skinner and maybe Olofsson.  I could see such a line being "chaotic good" with Girgs banging around, Skinner using his speed and drawing penalties, and Olofsson finishing.

Eakin brings nothing; I expect him to be buried in the AHL and called up only as an injury replacement (and even then, not necessarily the first call up).  I prefer Sheahan as a more dependable 4th liner, especially because he can, if need be, move up a line or two.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Doohickie

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

@GASabresIUFANIn this scenario bad contracts are not a negative, with 2 caveats, 1. Term is relatively short and 2. They have gas in the tank.

With those 2 caveats “bad contracts” represent veteran players to take the pressure and teach the kids to be good pros.  Those two things are needed regsrdless of contract size and will be critical to rebuild success anyway.

I agree.  I wasn't stating my opinion, but how I think KA views his roster and cap situation.  I would have taken Vatrano to get an extra pick or prospect.

[klos1963]

Call it what you want, but as this team stands today, and it doesn't look to get any better, we will be a very bad team. You have to look at our division, 26 games ?, the rest of the conference, (24 more), how many of those games do we win against Tampa, Toronto, Pitt, Washington, Islanders....

Tank or not, it's the same effect. We will finish at or very near the bottom next season.

We still have no NHL quality goalie on the roster.

 

 

 

[Hoss]

The next two drafts each have three guys at the top who project to be franchise-changing talents. I’m tired of losing but I imagine I’ll find myself rooting for losses once more once the trade deadlines pass in each season and this team is far out of playoff range.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I agree with much of that, but I think that if an NHL top-six ready center doesn't come in the Eichel trade, 1C might surprisingly be Girgensons.  Not that he is that good, but because he can take the pressure.  He was highly touted when he first came up, he's shown flashes of skill but he's been behind ROR, Eichel, Reino, etc., as far as skill guys go and found his niche on the shutdown line.  I think the shutdown experience will make him a good 2-way center between two more offensively minded wingers, probably Skinner and maybe Olofsson.  I could see such a line being "chaotic good" with Girgs banging around, Skinner using his speed and drawing penalties, and Olofsson finishing.

Eakin brings nothing; I expect him to be buried in the AHL and called up only as an injury replacement (and even then, not necessarily the first call up).  I prefer Sheahan as a more dependable 4th liner, especially because he can, if need be, move up a line or two.

He probably won't be buried because we won't need the cap savings or the roster slot.  He'll end up being a 13th or 14th forward and spend most nights in the pressbox.  I can see Ka waiving him to see if some team wants him for free, but he'll end up staying in Buffalo.

Edited July 25, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[klos1963]

Just now, Hoss said:

The next two drafts each have three guys at the top who project to be franchise-changing talents. I’m tired of losing but I imagine I’ll find myself rooting for losses once more once the trade deadlines pass in each season and this team is far out of playoff range.

Don't bother rooting for losses, this team is designed to lose right now anyway.  We don't have a top line that competes with other teams top lines. And no goalie. No top 2 defense that can shutdown other teams. It's a mess.

[Doohicksie]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He probably won't be buried because we won't need the cap savings or the roster slot.  He'll end up being a 13th or 14th forward and spend most nights in the pressbox.  

Yeah, good point.  Any other possible 13th forward should probably be playing every day in the A.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He probably won't be buried because we won't need the cap savings or the roster slot.  He'll end up being a 13th or 14th forward and spend most nights in the pressbox.  I can see Ka waiving him to see if some team wants him for free, but he'll end up staying in Buffalo.

Eakin is the 3C right now and may be in line to lead the team in minutes at C right now including PK time

If that ends up the case after KA is done his list this summer, it's "tell me how you are trying to lose without telling me" territory. 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Buffalonill]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

My point is that they aren't all going to be Crosby - the fact they are saying it could result so often, and then results so in-often, illustrates how little stock we can place in those drawn comparisons. 

You could be right but these 3  Could be the franchise players that we need going forward

[Hoss]

6 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

Don't bother rooting for losses, this team is designed to lose right now anyway.  We don't have a top line that competes with other teams top lines. And no goalie. No top 2 defense that can shutdown other teams. It's a mess.

I think the more likely scenario is I’ll check scores when games end and hope those scores are losses. For whatever games I can get out of market I’m sure I’ll hope to see some wins. Especially when they travel to my state and I’m attending in a black Drury goathead.

[Taro T]

Just now, Thorny said:

Eakin is the 3C right now and may be in line to lead the team in minutes at C right now including PK time

Yep.  (And there is still time to see the roster modified to change this, but) Right now would expect him to be the checking C with the plan of putting him, Girgensons, & Okposo out against the other teams' top lines to try to let Mittelstadt's & Cozens' lines get competition they can handle.  Then Ruutsalainen, Asplund, or a Sheahan center the 4th line.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

You could be right but these 3  Could be the franchise players that we need going forward

Whether or not they are franchise players probably depends on the state of the franchises they go to 

[jsb]

37 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I'm calling it:  1C next year will be Girgensons, and he will be better than expected, with Skinner and Olofsson on his wings.  He'll be more of a two-way center, but the line will click.

🙂🙃 You Go Girl 🙂🙃

[Buffalonill]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Whether or not they are franchise players probably depends on the state of the franchises they go to 

I don't get what you mean ? 

Edited July 25, 2021 by Buffalonill

[Thorner]

Just now, Buffalonill said:

I don't get what you mean ? 

Eichel wasn't a bad apple. He couldn't save this franchise because it wasn't in a state conducive to saving while he was here. 

I use "saving" because it's so often assumed from franchise "changing". Eichel *did* change this franchise - he added the type of production we hadn't seen in years. The difference he provided wasn't perceived as being "enough", though, because we were so far from the competitive roster necessary that the distance he made up on the road to achieving that was in some ways not perceptible. Like iceberg below the surface.

He *did* provide the value necessary to put us in a place where on his shoulders the rest of the roster could be built, above the water, we just never built it. 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Eichel wasn't a bad apple. He couldn't save this franchise because it wasn't in a state conducive to saving while he was here. 

I use "saving" because it's so often assumed from franchise "changing". Eichel *did* change this franchise - he added the type of production we hadn't seen in years. The difference he provided wasn't perceived as being "enough", though, because we were so far from the competitive roster necessary that the distance he made up on the road to achieving that was in some ways not perceptible. Like iceberg below the surface.

He *did* provide the value necessary to put us in a place where on his shoulders the rest of the roster could be built, above the water, we just never built it. 

Which is maddening because they actually had pieces around him heading into this weekend that could have been supplanted this offseason if management had the stones to go for the playoffs now.  It didn't need to be another step back.  It was decided electively to take that step back.

It stunk when they decided to bring "suffering" in '13 and it stinks just as bad today when they make that same choice though under a different branding.

[bunomatic]

Just get friggin better. The idea that it takes a tank to improve is foolsgold. Other teams make moves and instil team building plans without tanking and they get better. We suck for ten years then decide that we have to suck for a few more years and we promise it’ll work out this time. The team is owned and mostly managed by morons. Watching what is happening right now is deja vu. Anyone believe it’ll work this time? I have my doubts.

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

 These 3 players coming out are Sydney Crosby, Connor mcdavid and Nathan mckinnon prospects.

 Then you have in 2023 a kid that is better then  Connor mcdavid

 

These 2 drafts are going to be huge

 

 

I think you are going a little crazy.  Every player is different.  Wright is the prize next season.  Franchise centre that plays two way and is a natural born leader, something Jack never was.  That is the big difference between the two players. High, high character with Wright as compared to Eichel.  Doesn't have Jack's flashiness but gets results. Savoie I don't get as excited for. Kid has talent but has been knocked out twice with massive hits. His career won't be long if he doesn't become much more aware.  Lambert has blazing speed and high end skill, plays wing.

 

Bedard is very talented but this year will show where he belongs on the Next One scale. The Russian is super talented too.

 

But McDavid,  Eichel even McKinnon have won a combined Jack Squat.  Getting one player means nothing. You have to know how to build a winning team and Buffalo has shown no clue to that.

There are no guarantees with a lottery and with Star players.