Face it, the plan for next year is another tank

[Hoss]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Well we were when we got Jack, but yeah I know they changed them since. I believe that's what you're referring to as 'before', meaning the most current lottery in which we won Power.

If I'm reading you correctly then, tanking sounds more incentivized than it used to. 

Yup. All the new rules did was disincentivized sucking for a long time which … sounds nice.

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

Yup. All the new rules did was disincentivized sucking for a long time which … sounds nice.

A one year tank sounds a lot better than a two year tank.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, WildCard said:

A one year tank sounds a lot better than a two year tank.

A zero year tank sounds a lot better than a one year tank.

But, alas, that ship has sailed.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

A zero year tank sounds a lot better than a one year tank.

But, alas, that ship has sailed.

Terry Pegula: they said it was daft to build a team on a swamp

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Gatorman0519]

[rakish]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

Still any doubters out there?

Come on, speak up. Don’t be shy.

You know I can't resist.

I think the BS are heavy into analytics, and one of the things analytics often (but not @IKnowPhysics in the Butcher thread, which surprised me) believe is that everyone's opponent is the same, therefore there are no 'difficult opponents' or 'tougher assignments', they are all the same. So they value defensemen by their expected goals against, which sounds reasonable, except that, in reality (in my view), their XGA is determined by their opponent, that the number of minutes played against Marchand drives XGA. This makes Buffalo view Rasmus Dahlin's defense much better than it is, and to value the players actually playing Marchand (like Johan Larsson, Risto, Eakin) much too low.

The long term effect is that the BS will weed out the players playing the best opponents and promote the players who play the weakest opponents. I made a podcast about this last week called the analytics death spiral.

I believe they will sign a handful more players at discounted post June 28th prices. They live in monoculture. They laugh at the stupid teams, like the Lightning (Bogo, lol). They believe, internally, that they are going to shock the sports world.

I don't think they are tanking, I think they are incompetent. Of course, I might be wrong.

[Buffalonill]

14 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Can we make it official and change thread title to "the blight for wright", show some professionalism please 😛

 Should just change it to the big 3 tank

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, WildCard said:

Well we were when we got Jack, but yeah I know they changed them since. I believe that's what you're referring to as 'before', meaning the most current lottery in which we won Power.

If I'm reading you correctly then, tanking sounds more incentivized than it used to. 

It's still going to be a less than 20% of getting 1 if you finish last, worse than the McEichel odds

2 hours ago, rakish said:

You know I can't resist.

I think the BS are heavy into analytics, and one of the things analytics often (but not @IKnowPhysics in the Butcher thread, which surprised me) believe is that everyone's opponent is the same, therefore there are no 'difficult opponents' or 'tougher assignments', they are all the same. So they value defensemen by their expected goals against, which sounds reasonable, except that, in reality (in my view), their XGA is determined by their opponent, that the number of minutes played against Marchand drives XGA. This makes Buffalo view Rasmus Dahlin's defense much better than it is, and to value the players actually playing Marchand (like Johan Larsson, Risto, Eakin) much too low.

The long term effect is that the BS will weed out the players playing the best opponents and promote the players who play the weakest opponents. I made a podcast about this last week called the analytics death spiral.

I believe they will sign a handful more players at discounted post June 28th prices. They live in monoculture. They laugh at the stupid teams, like the Lightning (Bogo, lol). They believe, internally, that they are going to shock the sports world.

I don't think they are tanking, I think they are incompetent. Of course, I might be wrong.

I saw a stat on twitter today from the Metrics crew that Pysyk, replacing Ristolainen, is supposed to result in  +40 goal differential to last season

Like, NO WAY lol

[Hoss]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I saw a stat on twitter today from the Metrics crew that Pysyk, replacing Ristolainen, is supposed to result in  +40 goal differential to last season

Like, NO WAY lol

I saw that, too. Absolutely ridiculous thinking.

[Thorner]

Just now, Hoss said:

I saw that, too. Absolutely ridiculous thinking.

They've lost the plot - I don't even particularly like Risto!

Basically, "If Pysyk quadruples his ice time, but plays the same quality of competition he had in sporadic third pairing minutes in Dallas, he should improve upon Risto in taking over for him"

Stop. 

[Taro T]

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's still going to be a less than 20% of getting 1 if you finish last, worse than the McEichel odds

I saw a stat on twitter today from the Metrics crew that Pysyk, replacing Ristolainen, is supposed to result in  +40 goal differential to last season

Like, NO WAY lol

Even Liger has to look at that and wonder wtf they're smoking.  😉

 

[I-90 W]

It’s not a tank but it’s going to feel like it from our perspective. As KA said, this is all about keeping cap space so we can strike when ready, and signing only 1 year deals to keep players hungry. This is a legit rebuild.
 

Let’s just hope TP can stomach it, cause if not, KA will be fired in two years and this will just be a waste of time. Then comes the FAs and long term contracts.